Charles Oliveira vs Mateusz Gamrot
Men's Lightweight Bout • UFC Rio
Saturday, October 11, 2025
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Charles Oliveira
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-28 | Ilia Topuria | L | KO/TKO - Punch to Head (R1, 2:27) |
| 2024-11-16 | Michael Chandler | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2024-04-13 | Arman Tsarukyan | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-06-10 | Beneil Dariush | W | KO/TKO - Ground Strikes (R1, 4:10) |
| 2022-10-22 | Islam Makhachev | L | Submission - Arm Triangle (R2, 3:16) |
Last 5 Fights - Mateusz Gamrot
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-31 | Ludovit Klein | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-08-17 | Dan Hooker | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-03-09 | Rafael Dos Anjos | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-09-23 | Rafael Fiziev | W | TKO - Injury (R2, 2:03) |
| 2023-03-04 | Jalin Turner | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Charles Oliveira advantage: 1.7%Cardio Score
Mateusz Gamrot advantage: 47.6%Overall Rating
Mateusz Gamrot advantage: 20.4%📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (49.7 vs 52) and Grappling Composite (57.4 vs 53.5). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and endurance profile. Measures ability to maintain pace throughout five rounds.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Mateusz Gamrot advantage: 4.6%Grappling Composite
Charles Oliveira advantage: 7.3%🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of SLpM, StrAcc, StrDef, and inverse SApM. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from TD/15, TD Accuracy, TD Defense, and Sub/15. Evaluates takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Charles Oliveira Key Advantages
Front‑choke chains and back‑takes punish sloppy shots and tired re‑entries. He routinely converts failed shots into immediate back exposure, forcing defensive hand‑fights that stall momentum and set up finishes.
55% striking accuracy creates club‑and‑sub lanes off hurt opponents. Knees and uppercuts at level‑change trigger points generate swing moments that pair perfectly with front‑choke threats.
Finishing clusters historically heaviest in early rounds. The danger window peaks between minutes 2–7 as opponents adapt to pace and entries degrade in cleanliness.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Prolonged cage control minutes drain clock and mute submission attempts. If Oliveira is stapled to the fence without collar‑tie access, his finishing equity drops sharply.
91% takedown defense + scramble reliability limits top‑time. Clean limp‑legs and immediate re‑posts shorten the windows where submissions can be chained.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Use teeps, uppercuts, and knees to draw level changes and attack guillotines, race to the back. Force mat returns that expose the neck rather than accepting prolonged guard time.
Preserve short, accurate pockets to set hurt‑to‑choke sequences rather than long trades. Two‑to‑three strike chains with safe exits keep the risk manageable while maintaining finishing pressure.
🚀 Mateusz Gamrot Key Advantages
High‑volume entries, re‑shots, and mat returns dictate geography and pace. When the first finish fails, he immediately converts to rides, trips, or fence clinches to keep Oliveira defending.
Extremely hard to ground/hold; minimizes static danger positions. His base and wrist control deny the stillness Oliveira needs to ladder submissions.
Five‑round stamina advantage compounds after R2 if danger avoided. As scrambles slow, his ability to reset to the fence and restart cycles becomes increasingly decisive.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Head‑inside singles or tired re‑entries expose guillotine/back‑take windows. Poor head position turns defense into attack for Oliveira almost instantly.
Long, chaotic transitions increase exposure to elite submission chains. Clean exits and early frames are required to avoid back exposure.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Level‑change feints, run singles/doubles to the fence, prioritize rides and mat returns over damage early. Build minutes first; hunt damage once positions are stabilized.
Keep head outside guillotines, settle half‑guard, incremental damage late once risk is managed. If the neck disappears, pummel back to rides rather than forcing ground‑and‑pound in risky pockets.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven 5-round prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Geometry & Tempo
In a large cage, re‑shoot lanes and mat‑return cycles favor Gamrot’s control game, reducing pocket time and limiting extended clinches that fuel Oliveira’s back‑takes. The added lateral space increases reset frequency after stalemates.
🎯Technical Contrast
Oliveira edges technical danger via submissions and accuracy; Gamrot owns the cardio/pace axis with elite defensive metrics (59% StrDef, 91% TDD). The striker‑grappler push‑pull turns on head position and entry quality more than on raw damage.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Head position on entries, mat‑return safety, and damage vs control optics decide round outcomes. One clean neck can flip 15 minutes of control; one safe mat return can neutralize a minute of striking momentum.
🏁Final Prediction
Minutes favor Gamrot; moments favor Oliveira. Over five rounds, the sustainable engine and defensive floor tilt the contest Gamrot’s way unless Oliveira finds a front‑choke/back‑take sequence. The longer it goes, the more the minute‑winning trend compounds.
🏅 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
GOOD VALUE
Model: 36% | Market: Varies
FAIR VALUE
Model: 28% | Market: Varies
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 50% | Market: ~50%
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Cardio compression on short notice can swing late rounds; markets may under‑price it.
- • Submission spike for Oliveira is often shaded; best line shopping needed.
- • Decision skew toward Gamrot increases with big‑cage geometry and defensive metrics.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis (5-Round Fight)
100 hypothetical 5-round fight simulations based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Charles Oliveira
Primary threat weapon
Hurt‑to‑choke sequences
Less common path
💥Outcome Distribution - Mateusz Gamrot
Attritional or position‑assisted TKO
Minute‑winning via control & defense
Rare outcome historically
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (5 Round Fight)
⚡Window of Opportunity - Charles Oliveira
- • First 10 minutes: Highest submission equity on reactive shots.
- • Front‑headlock: Trap singles and chase the back on mat returns.
- • Accurate bursts: Create hurt‑to‑choke sequences rather than long trades.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Mateusz Gamrot
- • Minute winning: Rinse‑and‑repeat cycles rack up control time.
- • Tempo management: Prioritize position over damage early, build later.
- • Defense first: Clean exits after exchanges to deny counters.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment (5-Round Fight)
Conviction level: 7/10 – Multiple small edges vs singular submission spike
Confidence Level
Solid lean to Gamrot with live Oliveira submission danger.
✅Supporting Factors
- • Defensive metrics edge (59% StrDef, 91% TDD)
- • Higher TD volume and control cycles
- • Cardio advantage over five rounds
- • Big‑cage geometry aids resets
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Oliveira’s front‑choke/back‑take spike
- • Reactive guillotines on tired re‑entries
- • Damage optics vs control on scorecards
- • Lightweight volatility
🏁Executive Summary
Gamrot’s defensive floor and rinse‑cycle wrestling tilt minutes across five rounds while Oliveira carries the singular submission spike. The large cage and superior TDD expand reset windows and reduce static danger time. Over 100 sims, control/defense/engine prevail more often than the haymaker choke.
Prediction: Gamrot by Decision or late KO/TKO; hedge: Oliveira by Submission. If early submission threats are navigated cleanly, probability mass transfers to Gamrot’s decision lanes.