Joel Alvarez vs Vicente Luque
Men's Welterweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs Fiziev
Saturday, October 11, 2025
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Joel Alvarez
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-14 | Drakkar Klose | W | KO - Knee to Head (R1, 2:48) |
| 2024-08-03 | Elves Brener | W | KO - Knees to Head (R3, 3:36) |
| 2023-07-22 | Marc Diakiese | W | Submission - D'Arce Choke (R2, 4:26) |
| 2022-02-26 | Arman Tsarukyan | L | KO - Punches to Head (R2, 1:57) |
| 2021-11-13 | Thiago Moises | W | KO - Elbows to Head (R1, 3:01) |
Last 5 Fights - Vicente Luque
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-07 | Kevin Holland | L | Submission - Anaconda Choke (R2, 1:03) |
| 2024-12-07 | Themba Gorimbo | W | Submission - Anaconda Choke (R1, 0:52) |
| 2024-03-30 | Joaquin Buckley | L | KO - Punches to Head (R2, 3:17) |
| 2023-08-12 | Rafael Dos Anjos | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2022-08-06 | Geoff Neal | L | KO - Punches to Head (R3, 2:01) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Vicente Luque advantage: 5.1%Cardio Score
Joel Alvarez advantage: 9.0%Overall Rating
Joel Alvarez advantage: 1.9%📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (41.2 vs 61.0) and Grappling Composite (30.0 vs 58.5). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout three rounds.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Joel Alvarez advantage: 1.3%Grappling Composite
Vicente Luque advantage: 11.8%Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Joel Alvarez Key Advantages
Opportunistic guillotines/D’Arce variations during level changes and scrambles.
Jab feints freeze the entry, giving Alvarez cleaner lines for knees and guillotines as Luque level‑changes.
Long straights and knees punish entries, especially early in exchanges.
Luque’s recent D’Arce exposure keeps Alvarez’s choke chains very live in early scrambles.
If cornered, pivot exits and collar‑tie breaks limit clinch accumulation and reset at range.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Grinding clinch and body work can sap stance and reduce cage‑exit timing.
Low TDD (40%) versus mixed‑phase pressure can bleed minutes over three rounds.
Extended defense‑first sequences can stall Alvarez’s output, conceding optics and minutes.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Snipe with straights/knees and threaten necks as Luque level‑changes.
Attack the neck when Luque shoots or exits clinches with his head low.
Add rear‑hand check hooks after entries to discourage counters and keep exchanges one‑and‑done.
🚀 Vicente Luque Key Advantages
Consistent minute‑winning with cage cutting, clinch looks and damage.
Trips/singles to set up front‑headlock sequences and add control time.
Defensive wrestling plus clinch control reduces opponent’s finishing windows.
Early body damage lowers Alvarez’s pop and helps clinch entries arrive with less resistance.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Leaving the neck during level changes risks getting snatched by Alvarez.
High SApM (5.25) means counters are always live in exchanges.
When Luque chases combinations, exit discipline matters; squared hips invite counters and level changes.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Back Alvarez to the fence, add clinch/trips to bank minutes and damage.
Maintain posture on shots/scrambles to avoid getting stuck in chokes.
If stalemated on the fence, switch‑off to wrist rides and knee taps to re‑win position without exposing the neck.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven 3-round prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
Joel Alvarez
- 📊 Technical Score: 78 (average of Striking and Grappling Composites).
- 💪 Cardio Score: 85 (short avg duration ~7:00, high finish rate 100%, moderate SLpM 4.51 sustains well).
- 🎯 Overall Rating: 82 (holistic average, strong in finishes but limited TDs).
- 🥊 Striking Composite: 80 (SLpM 4.51, StrAcc 54%, StrDef 51%, low SApM 3.32 — precise but lower volume).
- 🤼 Grappling Composite: 76 (TD15 0, TDAcc 0%, TDDef 40%, SubPer15 1.18 — sub threat without wrestling initiation).
Vicente Luque
- 📊 Technical Score: 82.
- 💪 Cardio Score: 78 (longer avg ~9:30, high finish rate 87%, but higher SApM 5.25 indicates fatigue risk).
- 🎯 Overall Rating: 80.
- 🥊 Striking Composite: 79 (higher SLpM 5.02, StrAcc 52%, StrDef 52%, but high SApM 5.25 — volume over precision).
- 🤼 Grappling Composite: 85 (TD15 0.97, TDAcc 52%, TDDef 62%, SubPer15 0.69 — balanced wrestler with sub skills).
Comparison & Read
- • Grappling control: Luque 85 vs 76 — TD15 0.97 and TDAcc 52% map to bankable control time.
- • Danger spikes: Alvarez Sub/15 1.18 means any sloppy exit or level change risks front‑chokes.
- • Damage economics: Luque’s SApM 5.25 raises volatility; Alvarez’s 3.32 indicates better avoidance.
- • Three‑round lens: Default edge to Luque on minutes; Alvarez flips script with early intercept or neck trap.
🏅 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
GOOD VALUE
Model: 22% | Market: varies
FAIR VALUE
Model: 28% | Market: varies
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 55% | Market: varies
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Minute‑winning vs Moments – Market may underweight Luque’s minute‑winning control vs Alvarez’s spike danger.
- • Front‑headlock risk – Alvarez’s choke chains directly test Luque’s recent vulnerability.
- • Damage intake – Luque’s high SApM keeps Alvarez’s counters live, increasing variance.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis (3-Round Fight)
100 hypothetical fight simulations based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Vicente Luque
Attritional pressure, elbows in the pocket
Minute‑winning through cage control
Front‑headlock chains when opponents shoot
💥Outcome Distribution - Joel Alvarez
Front‑choke family off level changes
Intercepting knees/straights at entry
Lower minute‑winning profile overall
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (3 Round Fight)
⚡Window of Opportunity - Joel Alvarez
- • Early entries: Intercept knees/straights as Luque steps in.
- • Front‑choke traps: Snatch necks on takedown attempts/scrambles.
- • Keep space: Lateral movement in big cage reduces clinch time.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Vicente Luque
- • Minute winning: Output + clinch control bank rounds.
- • Mix phases: Trips/singles to add control and damage.
- • Neck safe: Maintain posture to avoid guillotine/D’Arce traps.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Small favorite owns broader minute‑winning paths; spike danger persists.
✅Supporting Factors
- • Luque’s output and mixed‑phase pressure over 15 minutes
- • Sturdier defensive wrestling (62% TDDef)
- • Clinch/trip entries add control time and damage
- • Better repeatability for minute‑winning
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Alvarez’s front‑headlock series against shots/scrambles
- • High SApM for Luque (5.25) keeps counters live
- • Alvarez’s length and intercepting knees/straights
- • Welterweight debut variables for Alvarez
🏁Executive Summary
The 30‑ft cage gives Alvarez more room to manage distance and set intercepts. Even so, Luque’s pressure, clinch layering, and takedown looks create steadier round‑winning sequences across 15 minutes. Exchange volatility remains elevated given Luque’s damage‑forward style (5.25 SApM) versus Alvarez’s cleaner shot selection and lower absorption (3.32).
Alvarez’s win equity concentrates in early moments: straight‑knee intercepts and front‑headlock traps as Luque changes levels or exits clinches. If those windows don’t convert, Luque’s cage craft, body investment, and trips/singles tend to bank optics and control time into R2–R3, especially with superior TDD and TD accuracy.
Prediction: Luque by Decision or late KO/TKO via accumulation. Alvarez live by early Submission off scramble/shot errors. Pricing note: meaningful value on Alvarez‑by‑Sub requires a generous plus‑money number given how front‑headlock windows compress after the first five minutes.