Valter Walker vs Mohammed Usman
Men's Heavyweight Bout • UFC Rio
Saturday, October 11, 2025
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Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Valter Walker
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-12 | Kennedy Nzechukwu | W | Submission (R1, 0:54) |
| 2025-02-15 | Don'Tale Mayes | W | Submission - Heel Hook (R1, 1:17) |
| 2024-08-17 | Junior Tafa | W | Submission - Ankle Lock (R1, 4:56) |
| 2024-04-06 | Lukasz Brzeski | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-05-03 | Cássio de Oliveira | W | Submission - Heel Hook (R1, 3:12) |
Last 5 Fights - Mohammed Usman
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-21 | Hamdy Abdelwahab | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-07-20 | Thomas Petersen | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-03-23 | Mick Parkin | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-09-23 | Jake Collier | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-04-22 | Junior Tafa | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Valter Walker advantage: 20.8%Cardio Score
Mohammed Usman advantage: 15.4%Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (40.0 vs 55.0) and Grappling Composite (75.0 vs 40.0). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Mohammed Usman advantage: 37.5%Grappling Composite
Valter Walker advantage: 87.5%Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven 3-round prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Range & Cage Dynamics
In the large 30-foot cage, Usman's movement and jab can help keep distance, but Walker's efficient entries and chain wrestling (4.95 TD/15, 70% accuracy) create early control opportunities.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Walker owns the grappling edge (Composite 75 vs 40) and steady sub threat (1.41/15). Usman brings higher SLpM (3.85) with solid TD defense (67%), aiming to extend exchanges on the feet.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Early takedown success for Walker vs. jab and footwork from Usman. Scramble burst vs. attritional pace, with judging likely favoring control vs. volume depending on round state.
🏁Final Prediction
Minutes favor Usman standing; moments and control favor Walker on the mat. Projection: Walker edges a decision or finds a submission, with Usman's durability preserving decision equity.
🏅 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
GOOD VALUE
Model: 40% | Market: N/A
FAIR VALUE
Model: 25% | Market: N/A
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 55% | Market: N/A
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Control vs Volume – Books may overweight Usman's decision trend while undervaluing Walker's control equity.
- • Takedown efficiency – High TDAcc (70%) creates path that isn't fully priced when odds exist.
- • Heavyweight volatility – Early KO threat on both sides increases variance around medians.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis (3-Round Fight)
100 hypothetical fight simulations based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Walker
Control and top time
Ground-and-pound lanes
Primary path via subs
💥Outcome Distribution - Usman
Counter opportunities
Minute-winning standing
Minimal submission threat historically
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (3 Round Fight)
⚡Window of Opportunity - Usman
- • Late rounds: Higher decision equity as pace evens out.
- • Jab control: Keep space and deny cage cuts.
- • Counter entries: Punish level changes.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Walker
- • Chain wrestling: Early and often to create top time.
- • Ride positions: Wear down, open sub lanes.
- • Risk management: Avoid extended pocket exchanges.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment (3-Round Fight)
Conviction level: 8/10 – Grappling edge with live striking variance
Confidence Level
Walker's TD efficiency vs Usman's decision durability
✅Supporting Factors
- • 4.95 TD/15 with 70% accuracy
- • Constant sub threat (1.41/15)
- • Youth and burst in scrambles
- • Usman's lower offensive grappling
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Usman's 67% TD defense
- • Higher SLpM (3.85) and reach advantage
- • Heavyweight volatility in early exchanges
- • Walker's lower standing output (1.79 SLpM)
🏁Executive Summary
Walker holds the matchup leverage through takedown efficiency and submission pathways, while Usman carries durable minute-winning standing. Over three rounds, the projection leans 65–35 toward Walker with submission and control-based decision as primary routes.
Prediction: Walker by Submission or Decision. Live hedge: Usman by Decision.