Lucas Almeida vs Michael Aswell
Men's Lightweight Bout • UFC Rio
Saturday, October 11, 2025
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Lucas Almeida
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-01 | Danny Silva | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-06-15 | Timothy Cuamba | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-12-16 | Andre Fili | L | KO/TKO (R1, 3:32) |
| 2023-06-17 | Pat Sabatini | L | Submission (R2, 1:48) |
| 2022-06-04 | Michael Trizano | W | KO/TKO (R3, 0:55) |
Last 5 Fights - Michael Aswell
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-31 | Bolaji Oki | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-12-15 | Dorian Ramos | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-08-27 | Bogdan Grad | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-04-21 | Nate Richardson | W | KO/TKO (R1, 1:08) |
| 2024-01-21 | Josh Altum | W | TKO - Doctor's Stoppage (R4, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite and Grappling Composite. Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Lucas Almeida Key Advantages
Higher output and proven power at range supported by height and reach advantages.
Effective distance striking in a large 30-foot Octagon amplifies the outside game.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
0.0 TD/15 and 54% TDD create vulnerability if forced to defend takedowns.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Work the outside with jabs and calf kicks, punish entries with counters.
🚀 Michael Aswell Key Advantages
Better defensive numbers and durability over three rounds.
Can mix takedowns to disrupt rhythm and bank control time.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Almeida's volume and power at range can take over in long stand-up battles.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Push the pace, crowd the kicker, and blend boxing entries with takedowns.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏆Dynamics
A classic pace-and-precision matchup: Almeida leverages range striking and counters; Aswell relies on defensive efficiency and tactical level changes to disrupt rhythm.
🎯Technical Read
Almeida’s 4.94 SLpM and reach can win rounds at range; Aswell’s 50% StrDef and modest TD attempts (1.0/15) favor a decision path via control and shot discipline.
⚡Key Battle Areas
Distance control, entry timing, and early damage vs banked control time. Large cage slightly favors the out-fighter (Almeida) if he keeps it at range.
🔮Victory Scenarios
Almeida path: counter KO/TKO or edge minutes at range. Aswell path: decision behind pace control and selective wrestling; occasional attritional stoppage.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Lucas Almeida
Counter lanes at range
Edges minutes with jabs and kicks
Opportunistic if opponent shoots hurt
💥Outcome Distribution - Michael Aswell
Attritional damage and pressure
Pace control and selective wrestling
Low likelihood path
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Clear stylistic reads with live KO risk the other way.
✅Supporting Factors
- • Almeida reach/volume in big cage
- • Aswell defensive efficiency + level changes
- • Almeida proven UFC finishing threat
- • Three-round pacing suits both styles
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Almeida 0.0 TD/15 vulnerability to control
- • Aswell limited UFC sample size
- • Almeida defensive metrics (5.04 absorbed/min)
- • Judges in close range-control rounds
🏁Executive Summary
Expect a competitive three-rounder where distance control and selective wrestling decide rounds. Almeida’s path is a counter KO or clean range minutes; Aswell’s edge is a higher decision share via defense and level changes. Odds will be rendered live; no static lines are embedded.