Jafel Filho vs Clayton Carpenter
Men's Flyweight Bout • UFC Rio
Saturday, October 11, 2025
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Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Jafel Filho
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-31 | Allan Nascimento | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-03-16 | Ode Osbourne | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R1, 4:27) |
| 2023-07-22 | Daniel Barez | W | Submission - Arm Triangle Choke (R1, 3:26) |
| 2023-03-18 | Muhammad Mokaev | L | Submission - Neck Crank (R3, 4:32) |
| 2022-09-20 | Roybert Echeverria | W | KO/TKO - Punches (R3, 1:31) |
Last 5 Fights - Clayton Carpenter
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | Tagir Ulanbekov | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-10-12 | Lucas Rocha | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R2, 2:12) |
| 2023-02-18 | Juancamilo Ronderos | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R1, 3:13) |
| 2022-08-09 | Edgar Chairez | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2021-12-03 | Ivan Lopez | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R1, 3:13) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Clayton Carpenter advantage: 2.6%Cardio Score
Clayton Carpenter advantage: 7.9%Overall Rating
Clayton Carpenter advantage: 5.2%📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (68 vs 85) and Grappling Composite (88 vs 75).
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures endurance and ability to maintain pace across three rounds.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Clayton Carpenter advantage: 25.0%Grappling Composite
Jafel Filho advantage: 17.3%🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven 3-round prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Range & Cage Dynamics
In the large 30-foot Octagon, movement favors Carpenter's outside volume game. Filho must time level changes off jabs to close distance.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Carpenter owns the striking composite edge (85 vs 68) with 3.91 SLpM and 55% accuracy, while Filho’s grappling (88 composite, 2.15 Sub/15) presents constant finish threat.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Takedown entries vs first-layer TDD (67% vs 43%); leg kicks to slow shots (26% of Carpenter’s leg strikes) vs clinch-to-mat transitions for Filho.
🏁Final Prediction
Minute-winning dynamics lean Carpenter by decision in a 3-round fight unless Filho secures early control and submission positions.
🏅 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
GOOD VALUE
Model: 24% | Market: N/A
FAIR VALUE
Model: 41% | Market: N/A
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 35% | Market: N/A
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • No live lines available – Market odds currently N/A for this matchup.
- • Style factors – Books may move toward Carpenter decision if/when lines open.
- • Sub threat premium – Early movement may tax Filho by Sub once available.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis (3-Round Fight)
100 hypothetical 3-round fight simulations based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Filho
If control time accumulates without finish
Less common path; opportunistic finishing
Primary path via back-takes and chokes
💥Outcome Distribution - Carpenter
Volume-driven finishing opportunities
Minute-winning via pace and accuracy
Opportunistic grappling transitions
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (3 Round Fight)
⚡Window of Opportunity - Carpenter
- • End of R2 to early R3: Peak volume scoring window.
- • Leg kicks: Slow entries; pivot off angle to deny clinch.
- • Stay long: Manage distance to avoid fence clinches.
🎯Control & Finish Windows - Filho
- • First 5–7 minutes: Highest submission equity.
- • Chain reactions: Single to double transitions off cage.
- • Back takes: Secure hooks after mat returns.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment (3-Round Fight)
Conviction level: 7/10 — Volume vs Grappling dynamics
Confidence Level
Carpenter minute-winning edge vs Filho submission danger
✅Supporting Factors
- • Carpenter superior SLpM and accuracy
- • Filho elite Sub/15 and improved TD chains
- • Large cage favors movement and minute-winning
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Carpenter 43% TDD – exploitable
- • Filho low stand-up volume (1.92 SLpM)
- • Early grappling swings overall outcome
🏁Executive Summary
The model leans 58–42 toward Carpenter in a 3-round setting, with minute-winning via volume and defense set against Filho’s dangerous submission pathways.
Prediction: Carpenter by Decision. Live danger: Filho by early Submission.