Irina Alekseeva vs Beatriz Mesquita
Women's Bantamweight Bout • UFC Rio
Saturday, October 11, 2025
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Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Irina Alekseeva
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-21 | Klaudia Sygula | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-10-14 | Melissa Mullins | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-04-29 | Stephanie Egger | W | Submission - Kneebar (R1, 2:11) |
| 2021-10-23 | Stephanie Ielo Page | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2019-12-22 | Liliya Kazak | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Beatriz Mesquita
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-20 | Sierra Lee Dinwoodie | W | TKO (punches) (R2, 3:05) |
| 2025-03-06 | Hope Chase | W | Disqualification - Illegal Upkick (R2, 2:20) |
| 2024-12-06 | Fernanda Araujo | W | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R2, 4:21) |
| 2024-10-18 | Shannel Butler | W | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R1, 3:24) |
| 2024-06-15 | Jorgina Ramos | W | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R1, 2:31) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Beatriz Mesquita advantage: 38.9%Cardio Score
Beatriz Mesquita advantage: 36.4%Overall Rating
Beatriz Mesquita advantage: 37.5%📊 Technical Score
Average of Striking Composite and Grappling Composite. Mesquita's elite BJJ elevates her technical rating despite limited minute-winning striking data.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate, takedown rate, and finish rate. Mesquita's fast finishes raise volatility but indicate strong pace sustainability.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view combining skill level with conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Irina Alekseeva advantage: 20.0%Grappling Composite
Beatriz Mesquita advantage: 87.5%🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15).
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven 3-round prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Range & Cage Dynamics
Large 30-ft cage amplifies Alekseeva's length and kicking game. Mesquita must force clinches and entries to neutralize range and access her grappling advantage.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Alekseeva brings 4.01 SLpM with mixed leg/long tools but subpar efficiency/defense. Mesquita's submission threat (RNC chain) and takedown entries project strong control minutes.
🧩Key Battle Areas
First layer: Alekseeva's takedown defense at the fence. Second: Mesquita's back-take chains off scrambles. Third: Alekseeva's leg kick output to slow level changes.
🏁Final Prediction
Moments favor Mesquita on the mat; minutes at range for Alekseeva. Projection leans Mesquita via early to mid-fight submission threat; Alekseeva's path is a distance decision.
🏅 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
GOOD VALUE
Model: 44% | Market: N/A
FAIR VALUE
Model: 63% | Market: N/A
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 55% | Market: N/A
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Submission equity – Mesquita's R1–R2 finishing profile likely underpriced on debut.
- • Range variance – Alekseeva's leg-kick game can slow attempts but concedes clinches at fence.
- • Experience tradeoff – UFC debut volatility vs. Alekseeva's three UFC bouts.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis (3-Round Fight)
100 hypothetical fight simulations based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Alekseeva
Minute-winning at range
Accumulation / stuns
Opportunistic moments
💥Outcome Distribution - Mesquita
Primary path via RNC chains
Top control if finishes stall
Ground-and-pound or attrition
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (3 Round Fight)
⚡Window of Opportunity - Mesquita
- • First 7 minutes: Highest sub equity; chain to the back.
- • Clinch cycles: Body-locks to mat returns.
- • Ride time: Bank control if finish stalls.
🎯Minute-Winning - Alekseeva
- • Leg kicks & jab: Manage distance; punish entries.
- • Sprawl first: Reset to open space immediately.
- • Low mistakes: Avoid clinch over-commitments.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment (3-Round Fight)
Conviction level: 7.5/10 – Grappling edge with debut volatility
Confidence Level
Mesquita's submission engine targets Alekseeva's clearest vulnerability.
✅Supporting Factors
- • Mesquita submission chains and back-take efficiency
- • Alekseeva's striking efficiency/defense metrics below norms
- • Height advantage for Alekseeva offset by fence clinch entries
- • Mesquita recent R1–R2 finish profile
⚠️Risk Factors
- • UFC debut environment for Mesquita
- • Large-cage range dynamics if TDs stall
- • Alekseeva leg-kick volume to slow entries
🏁Executive Summary
The matchup sets up a classic striker vs grappler dynamic. Alekseeva must win clean minutes at range and protect entries; Mesquita needs one or two clean chains to the back to tilt the fight decisively.
Prediction: Mesquita by Submission or Decision. Live hedge: Alekseeva Decision.