Jhonata Diniz vs Mario Pinto
Men's Heavyweight Bout • UFC Rio
Saturday, October 11, 2025
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Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Jhonata Diniz
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-28 | Alvin Hines | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-11-16 | Marcin Tybura | L | TKO (Doctor's Stoppage) (R2, 5:00) |
| 2024-08-10 | Karl Williams | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-04-27 | Austen Lane | W | KO (Punch to Head) (R2, 2:12) |
| 2023-09-12 | Eduardo Neves | W | TKO (R1, —) |
Last 5 Fights - Mario Pinto
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-01 | Austen Lane | W | KO (Punch) (R2, 0:39) |
| 2024-10-08 | Lucas Triverio Camacho | W | KO (Punches) (R1, 1:43) |
| 2024-02-18 | Kasim Aras | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2023-10-29 | Benjamin Sehic | W | TKO (Punches) (R3, 1:18) |
| 2023-03-11 | Moreno Kacapor | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 3:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Jhonata Diniz advantage: 0.9%Cardio Score
Jhonata Diniz advantage: 25.8%Overall Rating
Jhonata Diniz advantage: 13.9%📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite and Grappling Composite. Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Jhonata Diniz advantage: 5.1%Grappling Composite
Mario Pinto advantage: 9.4%🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven 3-round prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Range & Cage Dynamics
In the large Octagon, Pinto’s length and leg-reach advantage aid early range control, but Diniz’s steady forward pressure, jab‑kick rhythm, and defensive responsibility typically bank minutes once the fight settles. Crowd momentum in Rio may further buoy Diniz in close rounds.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Diniz carries the sustained‑output edge with higher SLpM (4.58 vs 3.67) and better StrDef (60% vs 52%), while Pinto owns elite accuracy (71%) and one‑shot power. Diniz’s proven cardio over 15 minutes (10:05 avg vs 3:41) is a key differentiator in a 3‑round tempo fight.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Early KO lanes for Pinto vs. sustained minute‑winning for Diniz. Diniz must manage exits after combinations and limit exchanges; Pinto should emphasize calf‑kicks and counters, leveraging leg reach to disrupt rhythm and create clean power entries.
🏁Final Prediction
Minutes favor Diniz; moments favor Pinto. Over three rounds, cardio and defense tilt toward Diniz unless Pinto lands decisively early. Projection: Diniz by Decision most often, with live KO volatility for Pinto in the opening frame.
🏅 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
GOOD VALUE
Model: 40% | Market: N/A
FAIR VALUE
Model: 25% | Market: N/A
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 45% | Market: N/A
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis (3-Round Fight)
100 hypothetical 3-round fight simulations based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Diniz
Primary path via volume and control
Late or attritional finish paths
Minimal submission threat historically
💥Outcome Distribution - Pinto
Main finishing method via power shots
Lower minute‑winning profile overall
Limited submission paths
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (3 Round Fight)
⚡Window of Opportunity - Pinto
- • First 5–7 minutes: Highest KO equity before adjustments.
- • Intercept kicks: Counter calf‑kicks with straight shots.
- • Keep space: Avoid prolonged clinch exchanges at the fence.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Diniz
- • Minute winning: Jab, inside low‑kicks, and counters rack up points.
- • Pace control: Stay defensively responsible to blunt power.
- • Defense first: Exit the pocket after exchanges to deny counters.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment (3-Round Fight)
Conviction level: 7/10 — Volume edge with live power danger
Confidence Level
Solid edge for Diniz in round‑winning with KO volatility from Pinto.
✅Supporting Factors
- • Higher SLpM with strong defense
- • Superior takedown defense (78%)
- • Proven ability to bank rounds
- • Cardio advantage in extended minutes
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Pinto's early KO threat
- • Higher SApM exposure in exchanges
- • Heavyweight volatility
🏁Executive Summary
Diniz owns the sustainable minute‑winning profile and better defensive numbers, while Pinto carries genuine early knockout danger. Over three rounds in a big cage, the model leans 65–35 toward Diniz, with decision and late KO as primary routes and early moments increasingly favoring Pinto's power.
Prediction: Diniz by Decision or KO/TKO. Live hedge: Pinto KO R1.