Lucas Rocha vs Stewart Nicoll
Men's Flyweight Bout • UFC Rio
Saturday, October 11, 2025
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Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Lucas Rocha
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-12 | Clayton Carpenter | L | Technical Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R2, 2:12) |
| 2023-10-10 | Davi Bittencourt | W | KO - Knee and Punches (R2, 0:18) |
| 2023-05-27 | Matheus Severino | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-08-02 | Eduardo Castro | W | TKO (R2, 0:40) |
| 2022-01-23 | Adriano Ramos | W | TKO - Flying Knee and Punches (R1, 3:08) |
Last 5 Fights - Stewart Nicoll
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-17 | Jesus Santos Aguilar | L | Technical Submission - Guillotine Choke (R1, 2:39) |
| 2024-03-09 | Issei Kitano | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 4:45) |
| 2023-09-16 | Dansheel Moodley | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 4:24) |
| 2023-03-04 | Scotty Eclavea | W | TKO - Punches and Elbows (R2, 4:44) |
| 2022-10-15 | Peter Benavente | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 3:59) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Stewart Nicoll advantage: 72.7%Cardio Score
Stewart Nicoll advantage: 45.5%Overall Rating
Stewart Nicoll advantage: 56.7%📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (42 vs 58) and Grappling Composite (35 vs 75).
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Combines skill with conditioning for a holistic view.
Striking Composite
Stewart Nicoll advantage: 38.1%Grappling Composite
Stewart Nicoll advantage: 114.3%Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven 3-round prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Range & Cage Dynamics
Nicoll's size and wrestling volume help him dictate location. Rocha must manage distance and punish entries. In a big cage, cut‑offs and fence resets matter: if Rocha circles off clean and keeps the center, his counter lanes open; if he is walked to the fence, underhook pummeling and mat returns favor Nicoll. Judges in three‑round fights often reward control time when damage is close, so Rocha must make his moments visually decisive when he does get separation.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Rocha's striking composite (42) trails Nicoll (58), while grappling gap (35 vs 75) is decisive. Absorption edge (4.48 vs 1.13 SApM) favors Nicoll. Output and control indicators are aligned: SLpM 2.00 vs 3.02, TD15 0.00 vs 5.66, and a perfect (small‑sample) TDAcc for Nicoll. Rocha's KO equity stays live, but the combined wrestling pace and damage mitigation profile gives Nicoll more repeatable paths.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Nicoll's chain wrestling vs. Rocha's counter power. Early entries decide momentum in a three‑rounder: first 90–120 seconds are critical for establishing underhooks, head‑position wins, and sprawl timings. If Rocha consistently wins first contact and exits on angles, the tempo becomes striker‑friendly; if Nicoll converts singles to rides and mat returns, top pressure will bank minutes and create finish lanes.
🏁Final Prediction
Minutes favor Nicoll via takedowns and control. Rocha's moments are KO‑driven. Round‑by‑round, Nicoll is likelier to bank R1 via entries, R2 remains swingy, and late urgency shifts to Rocha if he’s still upright. Projection: Nicoll by Submission or Decision is the most consistent read; Rocha remains a live KO at any point he can keep it standing and clean.
🏅 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
GOOD VALUE
Model: 25% | Market: N/A
FAIR VALUE
Model: 20% | Market: N/A
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 67% | Market: N/A
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis (3-Round Fight)
100 hypothetical 3-round fight simulations based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Lucas Rocha
Best path if kept standing with volume spots
Counter power in exchanges
Opportunistic scrambles
💥Outcome Distribution - Stewart Nicoll
Ground-and-pound sequences
Control and top time
Primary finishing route
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (3 Round Fight)
⚡Window of Opportunity - Stewart Nicoll
- • First 5 minutes: Highest takedown success and sub threat
- • Clinch to mat: Chain wrestle from clinch entries
- • Top control: Hunt necks during scrambles
🎯Progressive Threat - Lucas Rocha
- • Minute winning: Jab, low kicks, counters
- • Sprawl and brawl: Deny clinch ties
- • Urgency late: Hunt KO in R3 if needed
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment (3-Round Fight)
Conviction level: 7/10 — Grappling/control edge for Nicoll with Rocha KO danger
Confidence Level
Solid edge for Nicoll in control and durability
✅Supporting Factors
- • Higher TD volume (5.66 vs 0.00 per 15)
- • Better strike absorption (1.13 vs 4.48 SApM)
- • Stronger grappling composite (75 vs 35)
- • Size/reach advantages
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Rocha KO power and youth
- • Small-sample data variance
- • Home crowd momentum swings
🏁Executive Summary
Nicoll owns the location battle with wrestling and better damage avoidance, while Rocha carries real KO threat. Over three rounds, control generally out-scores moments unless the shot lands.
Prediction: Nicoll by Submission or Decision. Live hedge: Rocha KO.