Gabriel Bonfim vs Randy Brown
Men's Welterweight Bout • UFC Rio
Saturday, October 11, 2025
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Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Gabriel Bonfim
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-12 | Stephen Thompson | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-02-15 | Khaos Williams | W | Submission - D'Arce Choke (R2, 4:58) |
| 2024-07-13 | Ange Loosa | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-11-04 | Nicolas Dalby | L | TKO - Clinch Knees to Ground Punches (R2, 4:33) |
| 2023-07-29 | Trevin Giles | W | Submission - Guillotine Choke (R1, 1:13) |
Last 5 Fights - Randy Brown
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-26 | Nicolas Dalby | W | KO/TKO - Punch (R2, 1:39) |
| 2024-12-07 | Bryan Battle | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-06-01 | Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-02-11 | Jack Della Maddalena | L | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R1, 2:13) |
| 2022-05-07 | Khaos Williams | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Gabriel Bonfim advantage: 13.9%Cardio Score
Randy Brown advantage: 9.0%Overall Rating
Gabriel Bonfim advantage: 1.9%📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (68) and Grappling Composite (96). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Randy Brown advantage: 11.8%Grappling Composite
Gabriel Bonfim advantage: 41.2%🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven 3-round prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage & Range Dynamics
In a large 30-foot Octagon, Brown’s 78" reach enables range control, but Bonfim’s level changes and high TD efficiency (77%) consistently overcome distance barriers.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Bonfim owns the grappling composite (96) and Sub/15 (2.21), while Brown’s striking composite (76) and reach create minute-winning windows if takedowns are stuffed (73% TDDef).
🧩Key Battle Areas
Entry timing, clinch transitions, and Brown’s counter lanes off the jab determine momentum shifts. Early subs for Bonfim vs. late minute-winning for Brown.
🏁Final Prediction
Style clash favors Bonfim’s takedown chains and finishing grappling. Expect Brown to win moments at distance; sustained control tilts to Bonfim.
🏅 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities (Model POV)
GOOD VALUE
Model: 40% | Market: N/A
FAIR VALUE
Model: 20% | Market: N/A
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 50% | Market: N/A
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis (3-Round Fight)
100 hypothetical fight simulations based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Gabriel Bonfim
Minute-winning via control and top pressure
Transitions to ground-and-pound finishes
Primary win path through chokes and back-takes
💥Outcome Distribution - Randy Brown
Long-range counters and straight shots
Minute-winning at distance in a big cage
Low grappling finish threat historically
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (3 Round Fight)
⚡Window of Opportunity - Randy Brown
- • First 3–5 minutes: highest KO equity at range
- • Intercept low-kicks with straight rights
- • Circle off fence to avoid clinch takedowns
🎯Progressive Dominance - Gabriel Bonfim
- • Level changes behind the jab to close distance
- • Chain-wrestle to mat returns; attack neck in scrambles
- • Prioritize position over submission late to bank rounds
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment (3-Round Fight)
Conviction level: 7/10 — Grappling edge vs. reach and experience
Confidence Level
Solid model lean to Bonfim with live Brown KO threat
✅Supporting Factors
- • Elite grappling composite (96) and Sub/15 (2.21)
- • High TD efficiency (77%) vs. standing reach
- • Early finish profile aligns with Brown’s past sub losses
- • Youth and momentum vs. veteran mileage
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Brown’s reach (78") and accurate counters
- • Big cage favors movement and distance striking
- • Bonfim’s striking accuracy (44%) at range
- • Variance in 3-round fights
🏁Executive Summary
Bonfim’s takedown chains and submission pathways present a stylistic hurdle for Brown’s distance striking. In a large cage, Brown can steal minutes early, but sustained control and finishing upside remain with Bonfim.
Prediction: Bonfim by Submission or Decision. Brown live KO early.