Deiveson Figueiredo vs Montel Jackson
Men's Bantamweight Bout • UFC Rio
Saturday, October 11, 2025
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Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Deiveson Figueiredo
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-03 | Cory Sandhagen | L | TKO - Injury (R2, 4:08) |
| 2024-11-23 | Petr Yan | L | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2024-08-03 | Marlon Vera | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-04-13 | Cody Garbrandt | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R2, 4:02) |
| 2023-12-02 | Rob Font | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Montel Jackson
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-03 | Daniel Marcos | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-07-13 | Da'Mon Blackshear | W | KO - Punch (R1, 0:18) |
| 2023-04-22 | Rani Yahya | W | KO - Punches (R1, 3:42) |
| 2022-11-12 | Julio Arce | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2021-09-18 | J.P. Buys | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Montel Jackson advantage: 9.0%Cardio Score
Montel Jackson advantage: 6.1%Overall Rating
Montel Jackson advantage: 7.5%📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (75 vs 88) and Grappling Composite (81 vs 82). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Montel Jackson advantage: 17.3%Grappling Composite
Montel Jackson advantage: 1.2%Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven 3-round prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Range & Cage Dynamics
In a large cage, Jackson's reach and footwork favor range control. Figueiredo must collapse distance to land power and set up submissions.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Jackson holds the defensive edge (63% vs 49% striking defense) and higher takedown volume (3.24 vs 1.69 TD/15). Figueiredo's submission threat (1.37/15) remains a live equalizer.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Distance management, early reads on counters, and whether Jackson's wrestling can avoid submission traps will decide rounds.
🏁Final Prediction
Minutes favor Jackson; moments favor Figueiredo. Over three rounds, Jackson's range, defense, and wrestling volume tilt the fight his way unless Figueiredo finds a guillotine or big counter.
🏅 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
GOOD VALUE
Model: 45% | Market: N/A
FAIR VALUE
Model: 10% | Market: N/A
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 40% | Market: N/A
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Defensive gap – Books may undervalue Jackson's elite striking defense (63%).
- • Submission risk – Figueiredo's sub threat isn't fully priced in late scrambles.
- • Streak momentum – Six‑fight run for Jackson can be underweighted.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis (3-Round Fight)
100 hypothetical 3-round fight simulations based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Figueiredo
Needs to bank moments with power and control
Explosive moments early most likely
Live choke threats in scrambles
💥Outcome Distribution - Jackson
Volume striking and counters
Range control and wrestling insurance
Low submission profile
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (3 Round Fight)
⚡Window of Opportunity - Figueiredo
- • First 5 minutes: Peak KO/sub equity.
- • Guillotines: Threat on level changes.
- • Clinch trips: Short-range entries to mat.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Jackson
- • Jab and kicks: Control range and tempo.
- • Mix takedowns: Bank control time.
- • Defense first: Avoid submission traps.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment (3-Round Fight)
Conviction level: 8/10 for a 3-round matchup - Range, defense, and wrestling volume edge for Jackson
Confidence Level
Strong edge for Jackson with live Figueiredo submission danger.
✅Supporting Factors
- • Higher SLpM with elite striking defense (63%)
- • Superior takedown volume and accuracy (3.24 @ 63%)
- • 6-fight win streak momentum
- • Range control in a large cage
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Figueiredo's early power and guillotine threat
- • Jackson's low submission offense (susceptible to scrambles)
- • Figueiredo's home crowd in Rio
- • Three-round volatility
🏁Executive Summary
Jackson owns the sustainable minute‑winning profile through defense, range, and wrestling volume, while Figueiredo carries genuine early submission and power danger. The model leans 70–30 toward Jackson in a large cage over three rounds.
Prediction: Jackson by Decision or KO/TKO. Live hedge: Figueiredo by Submission.