Vicente Luque vs Santiago Ponzinibbio
UFC Rio
Saturday, October 11, 2025
Balanced Finisher
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Defensive Striker
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Vicente Luque
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-07 | Kevin Holland | L | Submission - Anaconda Choke (R2, 1:03) |
| 2024-12-07 | Themba Gorimbo | W | Technical Submission - Anaconda Choke (R1, 0:52) |
| 2024-03-30 | Joaquin Buckley | L | TKO - Punches (R2, 3:17) |
| 2023-08-12 | Rafael dos Anjos | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2022-08-06 | Geoff Neal | L | KO - Punches (R3, 2:01) |
Last 5 Fights - Santiago Ponzinibbio
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-03 | Daniel Rodriguez | L | TKO - Punches (R3, 1:12) |
| 2025-01-11 | Carlston Harris | W | TKO - Punches (R3, 3:13) |
| 2024-07-13 | Muslim Salikhov | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-04-08 | Kevin Holland | L | KO - Punch (R3, 3:16) |
| 2022-12-10 | Alex Morono | W | TKO - Punches (R3, 2:29) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (68) and Grappling Composite (72). Balances striking efficiency with submission and control threat.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Reflects ability to maintain pace over 3 rounds.
🎯 Overall Rating
Average of Technical and Cardio Scores. Summarizes minute-winning capacity and finishing equity.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15).
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Vicente Luque Key Advantages
Superior submission rate and takedown efficiency create finishing lanes if he brings the fight to the mat.
Higher output and accuracy amplify finishing duality (KO/Sub) in clinch and transition phases.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If kept at range vs elite StrDef (62%), his higher SApM may lead to a decision loss.
If takedowns are denied (71% TDDef), the bout favors minutes rather than moments.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Mix clinch and takedowns to force defense layers and open up finishing routes.
Capitalize on entries with front-headlocks or knees from the clinch.
🚀 Santiago Ponzinibbio Key Advantages
Strong striking defense and TD defense can keep the fight at favorable range.
Volume and durability support decisions if he controls distance and pace.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Early exchanges carry higher danger vs Luque’s power and precision.
Limited submission offense makes bottom positions risky vs Luque’s top threat.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Use leg reach to manage distance and score, avoid prolonged clinch exchanges.
Keep the fight long to lean into decision equity and minimize grappling risk.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Range & Cage Dynamics
Ponzinibbio’s defensive optics help him early at range, but Luque’s dual-threat finishing keeps momentum swings in his favor.
🎯Technical Contrast
Luque’s +10% accuracy and submission threat contrast with Ponzinibbio’s defense-first striking. One takedown can flip rounds decisively.
⚡Key Battle Areas
Luque advantages: clinch, front-headlocks, scramble subs. Ponzinibbio advantages: leg kicks, counter jabs, long exchanges.
🔮Victory Scenarios
Luque by KO/TKO or Sub most live; Ponzinibbio by Decision most likely in his wins.
🏁Final Prediction
Model leans toward Luque due to accuracy, submission threat, and age curve. Ponzinibbio retains decision avenues via range management.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
Market Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
GOOD VALUE
Model: 10% | Market: N/A
FAIR VALUE
Model: 16% | Market: N/A
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 60% | Market: N/A
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Luque
Power and precision create early and mid-round finishing lanes
Balanced skill set sustains minute-winning when needed
Front‑headlocks and transitions generate tap potential
💥Outcome Distribution - Ponzinibbio
Distance weapons and counters produce finish chances
Defensive optics and volume at range support cards
Low submission offense historically
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Ponzinibbio
- • Early counters: Kick-heavy range exchanges
- • Defensive optics: Keep strikes clean and visible
- • Avoid clinch: Deny extended cage sequences
🎯Progressive Dominance - Luque
- • Mix levels: Strike to shots, shots to strikes
- • Clinch: Knees, elbows, and mat returns
- • Safety exits: Manage counters after combos
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Multiple decisive edges for Luque; decision variance remains
✅Supporting Factors
- • Accuracy edge (+10%)
- • Live KO and Sub routes
- • Offensive grappling advantage
- • Age curve (33 vs 38)
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Ponzinibbio’s defensive optics (62% StrDef)
- • Decision variance in large cage
- • Exchanges at long range favor Santi’s optics
🏁Executive Summary
Luque’s versatility and finishing duality give him control of fight geography more often. Ponzinibbio’s defensive striking keeps him competitive, especially in extended range bouts.
Prediction: Luque by KO/TKO or Decision most often; Ponzinibbio by Decision in his lanes.