Julia Polastri vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Women's Strawweight Bout • UFC Rio
Saturday, October 11, 2025
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Julia Polastri
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-29 | Loopy Godinez | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-10-12 | Cory McKenna | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-06-15 | Josefine Knutsson | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-09-12 | Patricia Alujas | W | Submission (R3, 2:30) |
| 2021-09-14 | Jasmine Jasudavicius | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Karolina Kowalkiewicz
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-09 | Denise Gomes | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-05-04 | Iasmin Lucindo | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-10-14 | Diana Belbita | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-05-20 | Vanessa Demopoulos | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-11-12 | Silvana Gomez Juarez | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Julia Polastri advantage: 18.6%Cardio Score
Julia Polastri advantage: 15.4%Overall Rating
Julia Polastri advantage: 16.9%📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (72 vs 62) and Grappling Composite (68 vs 55).
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures endurance and ability to maintain pace.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score, combining skill level with conditioning and performance.
Striking Composite
Julia Polastri advantage: 16.1%Grappling Composite
Julia Polastri advantage: 23.6%Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven 5-round prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Range & Cage Dynamics
In a large cage, distance striking and footwork are amplified. Polastri's precision and volume can bank minutes while mixing occasional takedowns.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Polastri owns the accuracy and offensive grappling edges (55% StrAcc, 80% TDAcc). Kowalkiewicz counters with solid defense (58% StrDef, 75% TDDef).
🧩Key Battle Areas
Lead-hand control, range jabs, calf kicks from Polastri vs. clinch wrestling and counter work from Kowalkiewicz.
🏅 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
GOOD VALUE
Model: 40% | Market: N/A
FAIR VALUE
Model: 25% | Market: N/A
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 66% | Market: N/A
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Youth and accuracy edges may be underpriced relative to decision-heavy profiles.
- • Defensive metrics for Kowalkiewicz support decision props despite market uncertainty.
- • Limited finishing rates suggest totals skew toward overs.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis (5-Round Fight)
100 hypothetical 5-round fight simulations based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Julia Polastri
Primary route via precision and pace
Accumulated damage creates finish lanes
Occasional choke opportunities
💥Outcome Distribution - Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Counter lanes at range
Experience and defense in close rounds
Opportunistic grappling moments
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (5 Round Fight)
⚡Window of Opportunity - Karolina Kowalkiewicz
- • First 5–7 minutes: highest counter equity before reads settle.
- • Clinch and fence control to slow the pace.
- • Body work to reduce volume edge.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Julia Polastri
- • Minute winning: jab, calf‑kicks, check hooks.
- • Mix TDs on resets to vary looks.
- • Defense first: deny counters on exits.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment (5-Round Fight)
Conviction level: 8/10 — Youth + accuracy vs. veteran defense
Confidence Level
Solid edge for Polastri in minute‑winning with veteran resistance.
✅Supporting Factors
- • 55% striking accuracy + 5.62 SLpM
- • 80% TD accuracy provides variety
- • Youth and pace advantages
- • Home region familiarity
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Kowalkiewicz defensive experience (58% StrDef, 75% TDDef)
- • Decision-heavy outcomes create variance
- • Polastri absorbs 5.37 SApM—must manage exchanges
🏁Executive Summary
Polastri carries the sustainable minute‑winning profile, accuracy, and offensive wrestling threat, while Kowalkiewicz counters with veteran defense and clinch craft. Over five rounds in a big cage, the model leans 65–35 to Polastri.
Prediction: Polastri by Decision or late KO/TKO. Hedge consideration: Kowalkiewicz by Decision.