Vitor Petrino vs Thomas Petersen
UFC Rio
Saturday, October 11, 2025
Speedy Outside Striker
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Pressure Wrestler
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Vitor Petrino
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-12 | Austen Lane | W | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R1, 4:16) |
| 2024-12-14 | Dustin Jacoby | L | KO/TKO (R3, 3:44) |
| 2024-05-04 | Anthony Smith | L | Submission - Guillotine Choke (R1, 2:00) |
| 2024-03-02 | Tyson Pedro | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-11-04 | Modestas Bukauskas | W | KO/TKO (R2, 1:03) |
Last 5 Fights - Thomas Petersen
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-03 | Don'Tale Mayes | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-02-01 | Shamil Gaziev | L | TKO - Punch (R1, 3:12) |
| 2024-07-20 | Mohammed Usman | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-02-03 | Jamal Pogues | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-08-29 | Chandler Cole | W | Submission - Keylock (R2, 1:08) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (47 vs 68) and Grappling Composite (60 vs 80). Balances offensive precision and defensive efficiency across phases.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Reflects ability to maintain pace over 3 rounds.
🎯 Overall Rating
Average of Technical and Cardio Scores. Summarizes minute-winning capacity and stamina.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Vitor Petrino Key Advantages
Longer reach and leg reach support outside striking where most of his significant strikes land.
Can flip rounds with power shots or opportunistic submissions (0.61 subs/15min).
Best path is pot-shotting at range and punishing level changes with front-headlocks.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Weight disparity and pressure wrestling reduce space, smothering his offense.
Petersen's elite 100% TD defense closes Petrino's grappling Plan B.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Maintain range, punish entries, mix occasional takedown attempts to keep reads honest.
Push power early before clinch dynamics and pace advantages accumulate for Petersen.
🚀 Thomas Petersen Key Advantages
Impeccable takedown defense paired with efficient entries (4.42 TD/15 at 67% accuracy).
Superior accuracy (60%) and defense (58%) bank rounds over three frames.
250 lb base enables clinch control and attritional top time over lighter opponents.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Most at risk in R1 while reads are forming and power shots carry peak danger.
If kept at kicking range, his accuracy edge diminishes and entries telegraph.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Pressure entries, mat returns, wrist rides to bank control and sap explosiveness.
Target body, mix ground strikes, and keep a steady output to win minutes.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏋️Size vs Speed Dynamics
Petrino brings length and speed stepping up to true heavyweight mass. Petersen's compact frame, accuracy and defensive rates support round control in clinch and top positions if he closes distance.
🎯Technical Contrast
Striking efficiency and defensive metrics favor Petersen (3.74 SLpM at 60% acc, 58% defense). Grappling volume/accuracy and perfect TDD further tilt control exchanges his way.
⚡Key Battle Areas
Early range striking favors Petrino's danger; clinch/top control sequences and attritional body work favor Petersen. Round banking is expected if Petersen secures the positions he wants.
🔮Victory Scenarios
Petrino wins through early clean counters or late opportunistic submissions if he forces scrambling phases. Petersen wins by steady pressure, chain wrestling, and superior per-minute efficiency over 15 minutes.
🏁Final Prediction
Model leans toward Petersen due to accuracy, defense, takedown volume, and size-based control. Petrino's reach ensures live underdog moments, but sustained minute-winning tools point to Petersen across three rounds.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
Market Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 42% | Market: N/A
GOOD VALUE
Model: 24% | Market: N/A
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 55% | Market: N/A
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Petrino
Power counters and club-n-sub threat
Range control without finishes
Front-headlocks and opportunistic topside
💥Outcome Distribution - Petersen
Attritional damage from control phases
Round banking via accuracy and control
Low but live chain-wrestling threats
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Petrino
- • First 5-7 minutes: Highest power threat before wrestling control mounts
- • Counter lanes: Uppercut/hook on level changes
- • Front-headlocks: Club-n-sub pathways if sprawls force scrambles
🎯Progressive Dominance - Petersen
- • Round 2+: Chain wrestling, mat returns, and control time bank rounds
- • Body focus: Attrition to lower Petrino's burst
- • Safe margins: Accuracy and defense minimize swing moments
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Multiple decisive minute-winning edges favor Petersen
✅Supporting Factors
- • Accuracy and striking defense edge (60% / 58%)
- • Superior wrestling rate and efficiency (4.42 TD/15 at 67%)
- • Elite 100% takedown defense
- • Proven round banking across 15 minutes
- • Physical leverage in clinch and top positions
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Petrino's early power and counter lanes
- • Reach disadvantage at kickboxing range
- • Crowd and venue dynamics could sway close optics
- • Heavyweight volatility
🏁Executive Summary
This matchup pits Petrino's length and finishing danger against Petersen's per-minute efficiency and wrestling control. Across three rounds, the tools that bank minutes favor Petersen, while Petrino retains live upset equity through power.
Prediction: Petersen by Decision most often, with KO/TKO live; Petrino's clearest path is an early knockout or opportunistic submission off a scramble.