Charles Oliveira vs Rafael Fiziev
Men's Lightweight Bout • UFC Rio
Saturday, October 11, 2025
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Charles Oliveira
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-28 | Ilia Topuria | L | KO - Punch to Head (R1, 2:27) |
| 2024-11-16 | Michael Chandler | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2024-04-13 | Arman Tsarukyan | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-06-10 | Beneil Dariush | W | KO/TKO (R1, 4:10) |
| 2022-10-22 | Islam Makhachev | L | Submission (R2, 3:16) |
Last 5 Fights - Rafael Fiziev
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-21 | Ignacio Bahamondes | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-03-08 | Justin Gaethje | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-09-23 | Mateusz Gamrot | L | TKO - Leg Injury (R2, 2:03) |
| 2023-03-18 | Justin Gaethje | L | Decision - Majority (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-07-09 | Rafael dos Anjos | W | KO/TKO - Punch (R5, 0:18) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (52 vs 58) and Grappling Composite (68 vs 45). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Charles Oliveira Key Advantages
2.63 submissions per 15 minutes and 60% of career wins by submission create constant finish threat if the fight hits the mat.
74" reach aids clinch entries and back‑takes, enabling transition sequences to submissions.
38 UFC fights vs 11 — proven in 5‑round pacing and problem‑solving against elite opponents.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Fiziev’s volume (4.77 SLpM) and defensive footwork in a large cage can accumulate damage over 5 rounds.
Fiziev’s 90% TDD may force prolonged striking phases where Oliveira’s 49% StrDef can be tested.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Use long jab/teep to draw counters, enter clinch for trips or guard pulls; prioritize back‑takes and subs.
Create scrambles early when Fiziev is cold; Oliveira’s finishing profile spikes in R1–R2.
🚀 Rafael Fiziev Key Advantages
World‑class sprawl/circle keeps the fight standing, denying Oliveira’s best win conditions.
Crisp combinations and body‑leg targeting build damage and pace control in a big cage.
Lateral movement reduces clinch entries and forces resets, favoring distance management.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Any conceded takedown risks back exposure; 0.0 submissions per 15 indicates limited recourse.
Stalled positions allow Oliveira to chain attempts; must pummel and circle out quickly.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Circle, kick the legs/body, jab‑cross counters; deny clinch grips and sprawl on level changes.
Prioritize TDD and exits after combos; select counters instead of prolonged exchanges.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven 5-round prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Range & Cage Dynamics
The large 30‑foot cage in Rio amplifies space and favors Fiziev’s footwork and defensive wrestling. Oliveira’s reach helps him force clinches, but extended open‑space striking minutes tilt toward Fiziev’s pace and body‑kick game.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Oliveira holds the decisive grappling edge (2.63 Sub/15 vs 0.0) and strong TD volume (2.23/15), while Fiziev’s TDD (90%) and higher output (4.77 SLpM) make the stand‑up riskier for Oliveira. The fight likely hinges on whether Oliveira can convert entries into sustained control before damage accumulates.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three pivotal phases: (1) Early scrambles where Oliveira’s finish rate is highest; (2) Middle‑round clinch/takedown sequences against elite TDD; (3) Later minutes where Fiziev’s volume and body work bank rounds if the fight remains upright.
🏁Final Prediction
Moments favor Oliveira early via subs; minutes favor Fiziev across space and time. Over five rounds, the model leans 62–38 toward Fiziev, with decision and late KO as primary routes if TDD holds. Oliveira remains live for club‑and‑sub chaos in R1–R2.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Market prices may be unavailable; dynamic BetOnline odds will display as N/A if missing
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 36% | Market: N/A
GOOD VALUE
Model: 24% | Market: N/A
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 55% | Market: N/A
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Underprices long decision paths — Big cage + elite TDD increase Fiziev decision equity.
- • Overweights early chaos — Oliveira’s R1–R2 danger is real but time‑limited in spacey environments.
- • Body/leg damage accrual — Round‑winning volume not fully priced when odds are absent.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis (5-Round Fight)
100 hypothetical 5-round fight simulations based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Charles Oliveira
Primary path via grappling sequences
Club‑and‑sub or opportunistic counters
Lower minute‑winning profile late
💥Outcome Distribution - Rafael Fiziev
Primary finishing method via volume/counters
Minute‑winning over space and time
Minimal historical submission threat
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (5 Round Fight)
📈Timeline Projections
- • 0–5 minutes: Oliveira’s prime finish window; Fiziev reads and sprawls (25% finish probability).
- • 5–15 minutes: Momentum swing potential; body/leg work stacks damage (30%).
- • 15–25 minutes: Fiziev’s cardio/defense bank minutes (45%).
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment (5-Round Fight)
Conviction level: 7/10 for a 5-round matchup — Big cage favors the minute-winner
Confidence Level
Multiple aligned edges for Fiziev with persistent Oliveira submission danger.
✅Supporting Factors
- • 90% takedown defense and superior footwork
- • Higher striking output (4.77 SLpM)
- • Large cage reduces clinch frequency
- • Durable over 15–25 minutes
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Oliveira’s elite submission threat (2.63 Sub/15)
- • Knockdown‑into‑back‑take scenarios
- • Cut or injury volatility
- • Brazil home‑crowd momentum swings
🏁Executive Summary
Over five rounds in a big cage, Fiziev’s defensive wrestling and range control slightly outweigh Oliveira’s finishing gravity. The model prices it 62–38.
Prediction: Fiziev by Decision or late KO/TKO. Live hedge: Oliveira by Submission.