Sedriques Dumas vs Jackson McVey
UFC 317 Middleweight Bout • UFC 317
Sunday, June 29, 2025
Sedriques Dumas
10-3-0
🥊 UFC Veteran
Veteran Metrics
Victory Methods
Jackson McVey
6-0-0
🌟 UFC Debut
Prospect Metrics
Victory Methods
Last 5 Fights - Sedriques Dumas
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-12 | Michal Oleksiejczuk | L | KO/TKO (R1, 2:49) |
| 2024-08-03 | Denis Tiuliulin | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-03-30 | Nursulton Ruziboev | L | KO/TKO (R1, 3:18) |
| 2023-10-21 | Abu Azaitar | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-06-24 | Cody Brundage | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Jackson McVey
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-13 | Mataeo Garner | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-04-11 | Will Beard | W | KO/TKO (R1, 3:15) |
| 2024-09-20 | Ben Fowler | W | Submission (R1, 0:33) |
| 2023-07-22 | James Regina | W | KO/TKO (R1, 0:42) |
| 2023-03-11 | Tyler Mullen | W | Submission (R2, 2:15) |
Technical Analysis
🥋 Technical Composite Analysis
Comprehensive technical scores adjusted for UFC competition level
Sedriques Dumas - UFC Veteran
Jackson McVey - UFC Debutant (Adjusted)
⚠️Competition Level Adjustments
McVey's Regional Dominance: His perfect 6-0 record with 100% finish rate is impressive but must be adjusted for UFC competition level. Regional fighters typically see 15-25% statistical inflation compared to UFC performance.
UFC Defense Factor: UFC fighters defend takedowns 15-20% better and have superior submission defense. McVey's grappling success rate will likely decrease significantly.
Dumas's Proven Metrics: His statistics come from actual UFC competition, making them more reliable predictors despite being lower absolute numbers.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🥊 Sedriques Dumas Key Advantages
Major factor - 5-fight UFC veteran vs debut. Proven ability to compete at UFC level with octagon awareness
2-inch reach advantage despite being shorter - proportionally longer arms for striking range
Has taken shots from UFC-caliber strikers and demonstrated ability to survive adversity
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Grappling exchanges if McVey's wrestling translates - poor 40% takedown defense
Recent brutal KO loss to Oleksiejczuk - confidence and recent form concerns
📋 Likely Gameplan
Survive the early storm, use experience and reach to frustrate McVey's debut energy
Test cardio and composure with movement, make him pay for rookie mistakes
🚀 Jackson McVey Key Advantages
Perfect record with 100% finish rate - shows killer instinct in regional scene
3 years younger with UFC debut motivation - could have superior recovery and durability
2-inch height advantage for clinch work and physicality - potential for intimidation factor
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Adrenaline dump and debut nerves - massive step up in competition level
Experience gap becomes more pronounced in longer fights with UFC-level defensive skills
📋 Likely Gameplan
Come out aggressive, try to overwhelm before Dumas settles and finds his rhythm
Must impose physicality early before adrenaline dump - look for early finish
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Adjusted probabilistic model accounting for UFC debut factor
🎯Victory Method Breakdown (100 Simulated Fights)
Sedriques Dumas (45%)
Jackson McVey (55%)
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️UFC Experience vs Regional Dominance
This fight essentially boils down to whether McVey's raw talent and finishing ability can overcome the massive experience gap and competition level jump. The 63-point ELO differential has been reduced significantly when adjusting for competition levels, making this much closer to a coin flip than initially projected. Dumas's 5-fight UFC experience becomes invaluable against a debut fighter, regardless of McVey's perfect regional record.
⚖️Physical Dynamics & Statistical Reality
McVey's 2-inch height advantage contrasts with Dumas's surprising 2-inch reach advantage, creating an unusual dynamic where the shorter fighter has longer arms. This could significantly impact striking exchanges. However, McVey's impressive regional statistics (projected 2.5-3.0 SLpM, 50% sub rate) will likely see 15-25% reduction against UFC-level competition, while Dumas's proven UFC metrics remain reliable predictors.
🔄Revised Method Breakdown Logic
The adjusted probabilities reflect the reality that McVey's regional finishing prowess may not translate directly to UFC competition. His submission path (20%) reflects potential success exploiting Dumas's poor 40% takedown defense, but UFC-level submission defense is vastly superior. Dumas's increased decision probability (22%) leverages his experience edge and proven ability to survive when appropriately matched.
🎯Key Victory Scenarios
Dumas's Path: Weather the early storm, use experience and reach to frustrate McVey's debut energy. Test his cardio and composure with movement and leg kicks, making him pay for rookie mistakes. Experience becomes more pronounced in deep waters.
McVey's Path: Come out aggressive, try to overwhelm before Dumas settles. Must impose physicality early before adrenaline dump. Look for early finish before experience gap shows - any extended exchanges or late-round scenarios heavily favor Dumas's proven UFC adaptability.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Value assessment after competition level adjustments
📊Market Odds
Market Props
🤖Adjusted Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
| Prop Bet | Model % | Model Odds | Market Odds | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dumas Moneyline | 45% | +120 | +115 | Fair |
| Dumas by Decision | 22% | +275 | +275 | Small Value |
| Over 1.5 Rounds | 58% | -138 | -110 | Minor Value |
| McVey Moneyline | 55% | -140 | -135 | Fair |
Market Analysis Conclusion
The market pricing appears relatively efficient after our competition level adjustments. Our model shows minimal edge (McVey 55% vs market 57.4%). The line is appropriate given the uncertainty of McVey's UFC transition.Key insight: No significant edges on moneylines after adjustment - the smart money avoids heavy investment on either side.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Comprehensive fight prediction with uncertainty factors
📊Prediction Confidence
⚠️Key Uncertainty Factors
Competition Level Unknown
McVey's regional dominance may not translate - no UFC data makes projections speculative
UFC Debut Factor
Significant wild card in performance prediction - adrenaline and nerves unpredictable
Experience Gap
Dumas's 5-fight UFC experience invaluable but recent brutal KO raises form questions
Physical Contradictions
Unusual height vs reach dynamic creates unpredictable striking scenarios
🔮 Final Prediction
Primary Prediction
Alternative Scenario
Bottom Line: This is much closer to a coin flip than initially projected. McVey's physical tools and finishing instinct give him a slight edge, but Dumas's experience and proven UFC durability make this far from a foregone conclusion. History shows that dominant regional fighters often struggle in UFC debuts, particularly against veterans who know how to exploit inexperience.