Nathaniel Wood vs Pavel Andrusca – UFC Fight Night: Parnasse vs. Hooker Fight Analytics & Prediction

PRELIMS · FEATHERWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Parnasse vs. Hooker

Nathaniel Wood

“The Last Kingsman”

23W6L

UFC Veteran Technician

…

Pavel Andrusca

8W0L

Undefeated Regional Finisher

…

Fourteen measured Octagon bouts against a seven-fight finishing streak on short notice

FeatherweightAccor Arena, Paris, FranceSeptember 5, 2026Standard 30ft Octagon · Short-notice replacement bout

The Frame

Veteran sample against a short-notice finisher — and what the data cannot prove

The Analyst's Take

The veteran-versus-debutant template, sharpened by short notice. Nathaniel Wood brings fourteen measured Octagon bouts — 5.64 significant strikes per minute, 73% takedown defense and a four-fight decision win streak over Charrière, Delgado and Keita. Pavel Andrusca replaces Mairon Santos on days' notice: undefeated at 8-0 with six knockouts, zero UFC minutes and a move up from bantamweight. Wood's sample says he solves prospects; Andrusca's record says he has never needed a second act. The lean is Wood 68-32, with conviction at 4 out of 10 because finishing threat on short notice keeps the upset lane live.

Nathaniel Wood

Attribute

Pavel Andrusca

Age

5'6"

Height

5'7"

69"+2.5" Wood

Reach

66.5"

39"

Leg Reach

39"

Orthodox

Stance

Not published

145 lb

Weight

145 lb (BW → FW move)

14 boutsMeasured evidence gap

UFC Sample

0 bouts — debut

Well-rounded technician

Fighting Style

Wrestling-base finisher

Andrusca is younger and one inch taller, but Wood owns the meaningful reach edge at 69 inches to 66.5. The larger unknown is the weight-class jump: Andrusca built his 8-0 ledger at bantamweight and regional catchweights before this featherweight booking. Wood's frame and rate line are stable at 145 pounds.

Venue Factor
Short-notice replacement dynamics favor Wood's existing fight-week preparation. Andrusca's wrestling pedigree (two U20 European bronze medals) is documented, but it has not been tested against a 14-fight UFC veteran who defends 73% of takedowns and submits at 0.47 per fifteen minutes.

The Fighters

Fourteen Octagon bouts against an eight-fight regional finishing streak

Nathaniel Wood

Pro Record

23-6-0

UFC Record

11-3 (4-fight win streak)

Streak

4 wins — all decisions

Finish Rate

57% career (8 KO, 5 sub of 23 wins)

Avg Fight Time

13:32 (UFC.com)

Chin · One TKO loss (Dodson R3 2020); six decision lossesSOS · UFC veteranVolume technician — decision floor + submission threat

Wood rebuilt into one of featherweight's most reliable decision winners. His last four Octagon wins are unanimous or split decisions over Andre Fili (2023), Daniel Pineda (2024), Morgan Charrière (2025), Jose Delgado (2025) and Losene Keita (2026). He knocked Charrière down in Round 1 but still went to cards. Five career submission wins keep ground threats live even during the recent point-fighting streak.

Pavel Andrusca

Pro Record

8-0-0

UFC Record

0-0 — Octagon debut (short notice)

Streak

7-fight finishing streak

Finish Rate

88% (7 of 8 wins inside distance)

Avg Fight Time

Not supplied — no 3-round regional sample

Chin · Untested — undefeatedSOS · Regional — VFN / UAE WarriorsNot in UFC data — wrestling-base finisher

Pro since March 2021, inactive in 2022–2023, then a seven-fight finishing streak after a decision on debut. Won the Vendetta Fight Nights title via first-round TKO over Ahmet Şimşek, defended twice in 2025, then signed with UAE Warriors and stopped Daermisi Zhawupasi and Gexipengchu in consecutive first-round knockouts. Every win after his debut ended inside the distance.

Nathaniel Wood

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Knockdown Exchange

KD dealt vs absorbed

Pavel Andrusca

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Nathaniel Woodsignature weapons

Volume BoxingFour straight decision wins — Charrière (72-42 sig strikes), Delgado, Keita, Pineda

×4

Rear-Naked ChokeThree career RNC wins; 0.47 submission attempts per 15 in UFC sample

×3

Pavel Andruscasignature weapons

First-Round KOFive career R1 finishes; last two wins both first-round knockouts on UAE Warriors

×5

Rear-Naked ChokeOne career submission — wrestling-base path, no UFC grappling rates supplied

×1

Nathaniel Wood

Losene Keita

Decision — Split

RR3 (5:00)

UFC Fight Night — Mar 21, 2026

Jose Delgado

Decision — Unanimous

RR3 (5:00)

UFC 321 — Oct 25, 2025

Morgan Charrière

Decision — Unanimous

RR3 (5:00)

UFC Fight Night — Mar 22, 2025

Daniel Pineda

Decision — Unanimous

RR3 (5:00)

UFC 304 — Jul 27, 2024

Muhammad Naimov

Decision — Unanimous

RR3 (5:00)

UFC 294 — Oct 21, 2023

Pattern

Four consecutive wins, all three-round decisions at featherweight. Wood knocked Charrière down in Round 1 but still went to cards; he split with elite regional champion Keita. The Naimov loss is the cautionary wrestle-boxing tape.

Pavel Andrusca

Gexipengchu

KO/TKO

RR1 (2:09)

UAE Warriors 72

Daermisi Zhawupasi

KO/TKO

RR1

UAE Warriors (debut)

VFN title defense

Finish — details not fully supplied

RR1–R2

Vendetta Fight Nights 2025

VFN title defense

Finish — details not fully supplied

RR1–R2

Vendetta Fight Nights 2025

Ahmet Şimşek

TKO

RR1

VFN — title win

Pattern

Seven consecutive finishes after a decision on pro debut. The last two wins are first-round knockouts on UAE Warriors. No documented third-round regional win exists in the supplied ledger.

Nathaniel Wood

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Pavel Andrusca

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Critical Insight
Wood's method shares come from UFC.com career totals; his last four wins are all decisions. Andrusca's 75% knockout share and five first-round finishes describe a front-loaded finisher with no supplied third-round victory path.

Common Opponents

Opponent	Nathaniel	Pavel
No shared opponents	UFC featherweight veteran path	VFN / UAE Warriors regional path
The supplied records contain no common name, so no transitive comparison is attempted.

The Numbers

Full UFC aggregate for Wood — N/A for every Andrusca Octagon rate

Striking

Wood: UFC aggregate; Andrusca: editorial résumé

Nathaniel

Pavelsmall sample

Wood's 5.64 SLpM and 51% accuracy vs Andrusca's 75% regional KO share with zero Octagon sample.

Grappling

Wood: UFC aggregate; Andrusca: editorial résumé

Nathaniel

Pavelsmall sample

Wood 1.35 TD/15, 73% TDDef, 0.47 Sub/15. Andrusca's wrestling medals and one RNC are real but unmeasured at UFC level.

Technical

(Striking + grappling) / 2

Nathaniel

0.0

Pavelsmall sample

Measured vs editorial — the gap reflects sample size, not precision.

Cardio

Wood: 13:32 AFT + 4 straight decisions; Andrusca: no 3-round sample

Nathaniel

Pavelsmall sample

If this reaches Round 3, every defensible data point favors Wood.

Overall

(Technical + cardio) / 2

0.0

Nathaniel

0.0

Pavelsmall sample

Supports a 68-32 lean without implying Andrusca is outclassed in Round 1.

Metric	Nathaniel	Pavel
UFC Sample	14 bouts	0 bouts
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	13:32	N/Asmall sample
Current Streak	4 wins (all DEC)	7 finishes
KO Win %	35%	75%
Round-by-Round Data	Aggregate only	Nonesmall sample

Archetype Base Rate

UFC Veteran Technician 50%50% Regional Finisher

No repository archetype base-rate row · No archetype base rate is applied. The 68-32 lean comes from Wood's measured sample and recent form, discounted for Andrusca's finish threat and short-notice volatility.

Nathaniel WoodPavel Andrusca

Featherweight

· 0 fighters

Stat	Nathaniel	Nathaniel rank	Div avg	Pavel rank	Pavel
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	5.64	—	—	—	N/A
Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise.	51%	—	—	—	N/A
Str DefStr DefStriking Defense — share of opponents' significant strikes that do NOT land. Higher = harder to hit.	54%	—	—	—	N/A
SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better.	4.25	—	—	—	N/A
TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine.	1.35	—	—	—	N/A
TD Acc	~48%	—	—	—	N/A
TD DefTD DefTakedown Defense — share of opponents' takedown attempts stuffed.	73%	—	—	—	N/A
Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat.	0.47	—	—	—	N/A
KD / 15	0.40	—	—	—	N/A
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	13:32	—	—	—	N/A
Pro Record	23-6-0	—	—	—	8-0-0
KO Win %	35% (8 of 23)	—	—	—	75% (6 of 8)
Submission Wins	5	—	—	—	1
Decision Wins	10	—	—	—	1
Physicals	5'6" · 69" · age 33	—	—	—	5'7" · 66.5" · age 24

Statistical Verdict
The table is asymmetric by design. Wood owns every measurable UFC column from a 14-fight sample. Andrusca's row is career method counts and physicals only — N/A means unavailable, not zero performance.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

⚠ R1, R2, R3: single-fight sample for Pavel Andrusca

Control Time per Round (sec)

Nathaniel Wood

Per-round significant-strike rows were not supplied for this analysis file. Wood's aggregate UFC line is 5.64 SLpM with 87% of strikes landed at distance.
Documented timing proxies: knocked Charrière down in R1 (Mar 2025) but won by decision; out-pointed Keita over three rounds in Mar 2026.
Seven career first-round finishes and four consecutive three-round decision wins define the current profile.

Pavel Andrusca

Zero UFC round-by-round data. Every chart value for Andrusca remains null.
Regional timing proxies: five first-round finishes, two second-round finishes, zero third-round wins in eight pro bouts.
Last two wins both first-round knockouts on UAE Warriors.

Critical Insight
Round 1 is Andrusca's documented danger window; Round 3 is Wood's decision territory. Aggregate rates are not split into invented per-round bars.

Strike Targeting (career avg)

No UFC strike-target data for either fighter — nothing is estimated.

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage. Fighters without UFC samples are omitted rather than shown as 0%.

Range Profile — where the minutes go

Nathaniel · N/APavel · N/A

No UFC range-share data for either fighter — nothing is estimated.

Share of significant-strike volume by range from UFC career data. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.

The Story of the Fight

Decision streak versus finishing streak — with Round 1 hanging in the balance

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much

Open SpaceNathaniel owns it

Wood's 69-inch reach and 5.64 SLpM at distance vs unmeasured Andrusca striking

Pocket / ExchangesPavel owns it

Andrusca's 75% KO share and five R1 finishes vs Wood's negative strike differential

ClinchEven

Andrusca's wrestling base vs no UFC clinch data

GroundNathaniel owns it

Wood 0.47 Sub/15 and five career subs vs one Andrusca RNC with no UFC grappling rates

Path to Victory

Nathaniel Wood

Manage Round 1, accumulate volume behind the jab and low kicks, mix takedown threats and win rounds two and three on the cards or via late submission.

Why they win

Fourteen-fight UFC sample

Every rate in the comparison table is measured across a full Octagon career.

Four-fight win streak

Decisions over Charrière, Delgado and Keita prove the current plan works at 145 lb.

Reach and volume

69-inch reach and 5.64 SLpM against a debutant who has not fought at featherweight in the UFC.

Decision floor

Ten career decision wins; four straight in the Octagon.

Complete attack

Thirty decision, twenty knockout and eighteen submission points across the scenario breakdown.

The gameplan

1
Manage Round 1
Use jab and low kicks; avoid extended pocket exchanges in the opening five minutes.
2
Range control
Exploit the 2.5-inch reach edge with outside striking — 87% of Wood's UFC strikes land at distance.
3
Mix phases
1.35 TD/15 threatens level changes when Andrusca presses forward.
4
Increase volume late
Four straight decision wins say rounds two and three are bankable.
5
Stay disciplined
Hurt is not finished — Charrière was knocked down and still lost on the cards.

Path to Victory

Pavel Andrusca

Land early power before Wood's 5.64-per-minute rhythm takes over — knockout or brief ground finish in the first ten minutes.

Why they win

Finish rate

Six knockouts in eight wins; seven-fight finishing streak.

First-round equity

Five first-round finishes; last two wins both R1 KO on UAE Warriors.

Youth and height

Twenty-four years old, one inch taller — athletic edge if the weight cut is clean.

Wrestling base

Two U20 European wrestling bronze medals — a path to change phases.

Short-notice swing

Nothing to lose against a veteran; adrenaline-debut variance is real.

The gameplan

1
Press early
Five first-round finishes say the opening window is the primary path.
2
Wrestling entries
Close distance if Wood's jab controls the outside.
3
Combination power
Six career knockouts came from committed combinations, not single shots.
4
Make Wood defend
Takedown threats drain the veteran's legs even when they fail.
5
Accept the risk
Three decision points in the simulation — finishing is the realistic route.

Danger Zone

How Nathaniel Wood loses

Andrusca lands the first serious power shot before Wood establishes range — regional one-hitter variance ends the streak.
Underestimates wrestling entries and spends too long in clinch where Andrusca's strength at a new weight shows.
Charrière knockdown pattern repeats — hurt early, but this time the follow-up finishes.

Danger Zone

How Pavel Andrusca loses

Wood's jab-and-move rhythm extends the fight past two rounds where Andrusca has no proven cardio profile.
Takedown attempts run into 73% takedown defense and transition into Wood's 0.47 Sub/15 game.
The featherweight move saps power; first-round entries get slower and Wood's volume accumulates.

Fourteen measured bouts vs zero

The Sample Gap

Wood's 5.64-to-4.25 striking profile and 73% takedown defense are earned across fourteen UFC bouts. Andrusca's 75% knockout share is earned across eight regional bouts with zero Octagon minutes.

14–0

UFC bout sample Wood vs Andrusca

The forecast mirror

Decision Streak vs Finishing Streak

Wood's last four wins are decisions. Andrusca's last seven wins are stoppages. The two largest simulation buckets are Wood by decision (30) and Andrusca by KO (24).

Wood decision points in 100-scenario grid

Flagged, not guessed

The Weight-Class Jump

Andrusca built his ledger at bantamweight and regional catchweights. This is his first UFC fight at 145 lb. Power may translate; speed and cardio might not.

Volatility premium

Short Notice

Replacing Santos compresses Andrusca's prep time and creates debut adrenaline variance. Conviction stays at 4/10 partly for this reason.

4/10

conviction rating

No zero substitution for Andrusca

Missing Means Missing

Andrusca has no UFC SLpM, accuracy, defense, takedown or submission rates. The blank blue-corner charts are the accurate result.

The Five-Round Clock

Nathaniel Wood danger windowPavel Andrusca danger windowNeutral / contested

R1 · 0:00–5:00Andrusca danger window

Five first-round finishes; Wood knocked Charrière down here but still won by decision.

Critical Insight
The fight likely separates on whether Round 1 stays standing long enough for Wood's volume to accumulate. If yes, rounds two and three belong to the veteran.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

The Verdict

One hundred scenarios — veteran sample vs short-notice finisher

If you only read 3 things

Wood 68% / Andrusca 32%, conviction 4/10 — fourteen UFC bouts against an undefeated short-notice finisher moving up in weight.

Wood averages 5.64 SLpM with 73% takedown defense and four straight decision wins; Andrusca is 8-0 with six knockouts and no Octagon rates.

Wood by decision (30%) is the largest bucket; Andrusca by KO (24%) is the clearest upset route. Andrusca's UFC fields are N/A, not zero.

100 Simulated Fights

Wood Decision — 30%Wood KO/TKO — 20%Wood Submission — 18%Andrusca KO/TKO — 24%Andrusca Submission — 5%Andrusca Decision — 3%

Each square = 1 simulated fight. Nathaniel Wood gold · Pavel Andrusca orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

UFC sample size

Fourteen measured bouts for Wood; zero for Andrusca.

Recent form

Wood on a four-fight win streak; Andrusca on a seven-fight finish streak.

Method divergence

Wood's last four wins are decisions; Andrusca's last seven are stoppages.

Weight-class jump

Andrusca's first fight at 145 lb in the UFC after a bantamweight regional run.

Short-notice debut

Volatility premium keeps Andrusca at 32%, not single digits — conviction capped at 4/10.

Fight Scripts

of simulations

Wood Out-Works Him

Range, volume and takedown threats extend the fight; Wood wins 29-28 or 30-27 on the cards or finds a late submission.

Scripted outcomes for Nathaniel Wood vs Pavel Andrusca — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Nathaniel Wood win probability

20%

30%

18%

KO/TKODECSUB

Twenty points. Eight career KO/TKO wins, but the last four UFC wins are decisions — finishing paths remain live via career data.
Thirty points — the single largest bucket. Four straight decision wins and ten career decision victories.
Eighteen points. Five career submission wins and 0.47 Sub/15 across the UFC sample.

Pavel Andrusca win probability

24%

KO/TKODECSUB

Twenty-four points — the largest upset route. Six knockouts in eight wins; five first-round finishes.
Three points only. One career decision win on pro debut; no supplied third-round regional victory.
Five points. One career RNC and a wrestling base, but zero UFC grappling rates.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round

Pavel

Nathaniel

30-27 Wood

Volume and reach take over after a competitive opening round

Preferred distance outcome

29-28 Wood

Closer cards if Andrusca wins Round 1 clearly but fades

Nearly as likely

29-28 Andrusca

Requires sustained early damage — only 3 decision points in the simulation

Unlikely, not preferred

Moneyline

Nathaniel Wood

-300

Pavel Andrusca

+247

BetOnline moneyline shown above (Sep 4, 2026). Model fair prices and value notes below compare our analysis to the market where props exist — they are not alternate sportsbook lines.

Props: model vs market

Prop	Odds	Implied %	Model %	Fair	Edge	Verdict

Best Value
No bet recommended. Andrusca by KO (24%) is the live upset prop, but conviction is only 4/10 and the debutant has zero Octagon data. A market would need to diverge materially from -213 before this sample gap justifies action.

Conviction

4/10

An eighteen-point lean built from a fourteen-fight UFC sample and a four-fight win streak, discounted for Andrusca's finish rate and short-notice volatility. Lean: Nathaniel Wood.

What backs the lean

14-fight UFC sample with 5.64 SLpM, 73% takedown defense and 13:32 average fight time.
Four consecutive wins — Charrière, Delgado, Keita — all at featherweight.
Reach edge (69" vs 66.5") and a proven fifteen-minute decision floor.

What limits it

Andrusca's 75% knockout share and five first-round finishes keep the one-hitter path live.
Short-notice debut creates adrenaline variance the data cannot quantify.
Weight-class jump from bantamweight — power and cardio unknown at 145 lb.
Zero Octagon rates for Andrusca means Wood's defensive ceiling against this athlete is unproven.

Final Assessment

This is a veteran-versus-debutant matchup where the data strongly favors Wood but the finish threat keeps Andrusca live. Wood's 5.64 SLpM, 73% takedown defense and four consecutive decision wins describe a fighter who has solved the prospect-beating puzzle at featherweight. Andrusca's 6-1 knockout-to-decision ratio and UAE Warriors first-round knockouts describe a man who has never needed a Plan B — until now.

The 68-32 lean goes to Wood because measured UFC performance, reach, cardio and recent form create a wider path set than an undefeated regional finisher moving up on short notice. That edge is eighteen percentage points, not a lock.

Pick: Nathaniel Wood 68% / Pavel Andrusca 32%. Wood by decision is the single largest bucket at 30%; Andrusca by KO/TKO is the largest upset route at 24%. Conviction remains 4/10, and no bet is recommended without a market and Octagon data on the debutant.

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