PRELIMS · FEATHERWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Parnasse vs. Hooker
Morgan Charrière — Featherweight fighter

Morgan Charrière

21W12L1D
Pressure Striker
…
VS
Felipe Lima — Featherweight fighter

Felipe Lima

14W2L
Defensive Counter
…

The only knockdown in the fight belongs to the underdog

FeatherweightAccor Arena, Paris, FranceSeptember 5, 2026Standard 30ft Octagon
01

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Morgan Charrière is the only man in this bout who has ever put an opponent down: 0.88 knockdowns per fifteen minutes, 15th of 78 active featherweights, and all three of his UFC wins by knockout — two of them 27 seconds into a round. Felipe Lima has zero. What Lima has instead is the defence: 65% striking defence, 6th of 79 active bantamweights, and 86% takedown defence, 10th. Charrière absorbs 4.51 significant strikes per minute against the 4.02 he lands, and his average fight lasts 8:30 against Lima's 13:45. The model makes it Lima 55, Charrière 45 — a defensive fighter's edge over a puncher, in the puncher's home building.

Morgan Charrière
Attribute
Felipe Lima
30
Age
28
5'8"+2" Charrière
Height
5'6"
69"+1" Charrière
Reach
68"
N/A
Leg Reach
N/A
Poissy, France
Origin
Coari, Brazil
Sep 2, 2023
Octagon Debut
Jun 22, 2024
Featherweight
Listed Division
Bantamweight (database)
Pressure, hooks, knockdown hunting
Fighting Style
Counter-striking into the rear-naked choke

Two inches of height and one of reach to the Frenchman — the smallest physical gap on the Paris prelims, and small enough that neither man will fight differently for it. The database still lists Lima as a bantamweight at 135lb, but two of his three Octagon bouts were contracted at featherweight, so the size question the analysis raised is largely already answered: he has made this weight and won at it. Neither fighter has a published leg reach, which matters here because 23.3% of Charrière's opening-round strikes and 22.7% of Lima's go to the legs.

Venue Factor
Three rounds is the compromise round-count. Charrière's average fight lasts 8:30 — the shortest of any fighter on this prelim card — because he either finishes or gets finished; Lima's lasts 13:45, the longest, because he has gone the distance in two of his three Octagon appearances. Fifteen minutes gives the Frenchman three separate five-minute windows to land the shot, and gives the Brazilian enough time for a 65% striking defence to turn into a scorecard. In Paris, the first of those windows is the loudest.
02

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Morgan Charriere celebrating in the Octagon

Morgan Charrière

Pro Record
21-12-1
UFC Record
3-3 across six bouts since 2023
Streak
Lost his last — Melquizael Costa, TKO R1 1:14 (Dec 2025)
Finish Rate
13 of 21 career wins by KO/TKO (62%); all three UFC wins were knockouts
Avg Fight Time
8:30
Chin · Tested — stopped once in six UFC boutsSOS · Mid-tier UFCPressure striker with knockdown power

Six Octagon fights in just over two years, and they alternate with almost comic regularity: win, loss, win, loss, win, loss. Manolo Zecchini went in the first, Gabriel Miranda 27 seconds into the second, Nate Landwehr 27 seconds into the third — three knockouts, each in a different round, from a man who has never won a UFC decision. The losses are the other half of the same trait. Chepe Mariscal edged him on a split card, Nathaniel Wood dropped him in the opening round and out-landed him 72-42 over fifteen minutes, and Melquizael Costa put him away in 74 seconds last December. He lands 4.02 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.51 — the only fighter in this bout whose damage ledger runs against him.

Felipe Lima throwing a punch in the Octagon

Felipe Lima

Pro Record
14-2-0
UFC Record
2-1 across three bouts since 2024
Streak
Lost his last — Payton Talbott, unanimous decision (UFC 317, Jun 2025)
Finish Rate
7 of 14 career wins by finish — 4 KO/TKO, 3 submission; 50% by decision
Avg Fight Time
13:45
Chin · Never stopped in the OctagonSOS · Rising bantamweightDefensive counter-striker

Three Octagon fights, nine rounds, not a single knockdown in either direction — he has neither dropped anyone nor been dropped. He arrived in June 2024 and took the third round off Muhammad Naimov with a rear-naked choke at 1:15 after a fight he had been losing on volume, then out-worked Miles Johns over three rounds with 2:09 of control in the third. Then Payton Talbott, and the one performance that tells you where the ceiling is: Lima was out-landed 59-26 across fifteen minutes and went 3 for 15 on takedowns. His 86% takedown defence held perfectly — Talbott landed none from one attempt — but he was still pinned for 4:49 against the fence. Being hard to take down and being hard to control turn out to be different problems.

Morgan Charrière
0 dealt · 0 absorbed
Knockdown Exchange
KD dealt vs absorbed
Felipe Lima
0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Morgan Charrièresignature weapons

Knockout Power62% of his 21 career wins; all three UFC wins — Zecchini R1 3:51, Miranda R2 0:27, Landwehr R3 0:27. 0.88 knockdowns per 15 min, 15th of 78 featherweights
×13
The 0:27 AmbushGabriel Miranda and Nate Landwehr were both stopped exactly 27 seconds into a round — he opens rounds looking for the finish, not the range
×2

Felipe Limasignature weapons

Rear-Naked Choke3 of his 14 career wins; latest Muhammad Naimov, R3 1:15, June 2024. 0.73 submission attempts per 15 min, 21st of 79 bantamweights
×3
Attrition Decision50% of his wins go to the cards — 13:45 average fight time, the longest of anyone on this prelim card
×7

Morgan Charrière

L
Melquizael Costa
KO/TKO
RR1 (1:14)
UFC FN: Royval vs. Kape — Dec 13, 2025
W
Nate Landwehr
KO/TKO
RR3 (0:27)
UFC FN: Lewis vs. Teixeira — Jul 12, 2025
L
Nathaniel Wood
Decision — Unanimous
RR3
UFC FN: Edwards vs. Brady — Mar 22, 2025
W
Gabriel Miranda
KO/TKO
RR2 (0:27)
UFC FN: Moicano vs. Saint Denis — Sep 28, 2024
L
Chepe Mariscal
Decision — Split
RR3
UFC FN: Allen vs. Curtis 2 — Apr 6, 2024
Pattern

Three wins, three losses, perfectly alternating, and every one of the six resolved the same way — by whether his chin or his opponent's cracked first. The wins are spectacular: Zecchini in the first, Miranda at 0:27 of the second, Landwehr at 0:27 of the third after a round in which he had absorbed 43 significant strikes. The losses are instructive: Wood knocked him down inside the opening round and out-landed him 72-42, Costa needed 74 seconds. He has never won a decision in the Octagon and has lost two.

Felipe Lima

L
Payton Talbott
Decision — Unanimous
RR3
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira — Jun 28, 2025
W
Miles Johns
Decision — Unanimous
RR3
UFC FN: Covington vs. Buckley — Dec 14, 2024
W
Muhammad Naimov
Submission — RNC
RR3 (1:15)
UFC FN: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov — Jun 22, 2024
Pattern

Only three Octagon fights, but they are the three most useful fights he could have had. Naimov showed the finishing instinct — down on the exchanges, he took the back at the start of the third and choked him inside 75 seconds. Johns showed the grinding version — 55 significant strikes, 2:09 of third-round control, a clean unanimous card. Talbott showed the ceiling — out-landed 59-26 by genuinely elite speed, with 12 failed takedowns. He has never been stopped and he has never stopped anyone standing.

Morgan Charrière

Win Methods
Wins by Round

Felipe Lima

Win Methods
Wins by Round
Critical Insight
The donuts are full-career percentages published by the database — Charrière's 21 wins split 13 KO / 5 decision / 3 submission, Lima's 14 split 4 / 7 / 3. They are close to opposites: the Frenchman finishes 62% of the time with his hands, the Brazilian decisions half of everything he wins. The round distribution beneath them is UFC-only, because rounds are not recorded for either man's regional bouts, and it is the more striking chart. Charrière's three Octagon wins came in the first, second and third round respectively — he is dangerous in all fifteen minutes. Lima's two came in the third round and on the cards.

Common Opponents

OpponentMorganFelipe
Nathaniel Wood (also fighting on this card)L· UD3 (Mar 2025) — dropped in R1, out-landed 72-42—(no shared bout)
Wood meets Mairon Santos on this same Paris card. He is the cleanest tape on how a disciplined featherweight beats Charrière: knock him down early, then out-volume him without ever standing still
Muhammad Naimov (also fighting on this card)—(no shared bout)W· Sub R3 1:15 (Jun 2024) — rear-naked choke
Naimov meets Losene Keita on this same card. He is Lima's only Octagon finish and the template for the submission bucket: lose the striking exchanges, take the back in the third, end it
03

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Striking

SLpM 25% · StrAcc 30% · StrDef 30% · SApM 15%

0
Morgan
0
Felipesmall sample

Two points, and they come from opposite directions. Charrière lands more (4.02 to 2.86) and more accurately (50% to 45%); Lima gets hit far less (65% defence to 54%) and absorbs 2.91 a minute to Charrière's 4.51. Volume against durability, and durability scores marginally higher.

Grappling

TD/15 25% · TDAcc 25% · TDDef 30% · Sub/15 20%

0
Morgan
0
Felipesmall sample

Nearly identical takedown volume (2.06 against 2.18) and nearly identical defence (83% against 86%). Lima wins the gauge on submission threat — 0.73 attempts per fifteen minutes against 0.29 — and loses it on accuracy, where he converts 27% to Charrière's 47%.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

0.0
Morgan
0
Felipesmall sample

Two and a half points. This is the closest technical gap on the Paris prelims, and it is why the model stops at 55-45 rather than going further.

Cardio

Fight time · pace · R3/R1 output · champ rounds

0
Morgan
0
Felipesmall sample

The widest gauge on the page. Lima's average fight runs 13:45 against Charrière's 8:30, and he has been to the cards twice in three Octagon appearances. Charrière's third-round accuracy falls to 36% from 56% in the first — though that number is distorted by a 27-second round.

Overall

(Technical + Cardio) / 2

0
Morgan
0.0
Felipesmall sample

Four and a half composite points and a 55-45 model line. The gap is real but narrow, and every point of it is defensive.

MetricMorganFelipe
Avg Fight Time8:3013:45
Pace TierBelow average — 4.02 SLpM (49th/78 FW)Low volume — 2.86 SLpM (67th/79 BW)small sample
R3/R1 Output75% (10.7 vs 14.3 sig)46% (6.7 vs 14.7 sig)small sample
Slow Start %Low — 14.3 sig at 56% accuracy in R1Low — 14.7 sig at 48% accuracy in R1
Champ RoundsN/A — 3-round boutN/A — 3-round bout

Archetype Base Rate

Pressure Striker / Knockdown Threat 45%55% Defensive Counter-Striker

No archetype base-rate row for this pairing · No historical archetype win-rate is applied. The 55-45 lean is the site model's, and it matches the analysis file exactly: Lima's defensive numbers carry it, Charrière's knockdown average and home crowd cap it at a four-point composite gap.

Morgan CharrièreFelipe Lima

Featherweight · Lima ranked in Bantamweight

· 78 fighters
StatMorganMorgan rankDiv avgFelipe rankFelipe
SLpM4.02
49/78
FW 4.73 · BW 4.41
67/78small sample
2.86
Str Acc50%
30/78
FW 49.9% · BW 47.2%
44/78small sample
45%
Str Def54%
38/78
FW 55.0% · BW 54.2%
6/78elitesmall sample
65%
SApM4.51
51/78
FW 3.93 · BW 3.95
23/78small sample
2.91
KD Avg0.88
15/78
FW 1.46 · BW 0.54
56/78small sample
0.00
Damage Ratio0.89—FW 1.20 · BW 1.12—0.98
TD/152.06
24/78
FW 1.89 · BW 1.50
22/78small sample
2.18
TD Acc47%
24/78
—
54/78small sample
27%
TD Def83%
12/78
FW 67.8% · BW 67.5%
10/78small sample
86%
Sub/150.29
36/78
FW 0.56 · BW 0.51
21/78small sample
0.73
Control Dealt / Absorbed624s / 369s———444s / 518s
Avg Fight Time8:30———13:45
Statistical Verdict
Lima owns exactly one column decisively — striking defence, 65% and 6th of 79 bantamweights — and it is the column that decides fights against a man who throws 4.02 a minute. Everywhere else the table is closer than the narrative suggests. Their takedown volumes are within 0.12 of each other, their takedown defences within three points, and Charrière is the better converter (47% to 27%). Two rows deserve special attention. Charrière's damage ratio of 0.89 means he has absorbed more significant strikes in the Octagon than he has landed — 230 against 205 — which is the statistical shape of a fighter who trades. And the control row inverts the story the analysis told: Charrière has controlled opponents for 624 seconds against 369 absorbed, while Lima has been controlled for more time than he has controlled, 518 seconds to 444, almost all of it by Payton Talbott against the fence. Elite takedown defence did not stop that.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

Control Time per Round (sec)

Morgan Charrière

  • His output peaks in the second round at 21.8 significant strikes — 52% higher than his first — and 32.2% of it goes to the body, by far his heaviest body-work round.
  • His knockdown rate climbs every round: 0.17, 0.25, 0.33. Both of his round-two and round-three finishes landed 27 seconds after the bell, which is why the third-round average of 10.7 strikes is misleading rather than damning.
  • He fights at range and stays there — 93.8% of his third-round offence lands at distance and only 3.1% on the ground, despite 48 seconds of control in the round.

Felipe Lima

  • The same shape as Charrière, one round earlier and lower: 14.7 in the first, 18.0 in the second, then a collapse to 6.7 in the third.
  • That third round is not a fade, it is a grappling round. His control time rises to 73 seconds — his highest — and both of his third rounds against Naimov and Johns ended with him hunting a choke, one of which he got at 1:15.
  • He is the more clinch-oriented fighter at the edges: 15.9% of his first-round strikes and 15.0% of his third land in the clinch, against Charrière's 8.1% and 3.1%.
Critical Insight
Both men's third-round rows are distorted by short rounds and both should be read with care — Charrière's includes the 27 seconds it took him to knock out Nate Landwehr, Lima's includes the 75 seconds it took him to choke Muhammad Naimov. Strip that away and the honest reading is this: Charrière's threat is evenly spread across all three rounds, because he has knocked a man out in each of them; Lima's is concentrated in the third, where his control time doubles and his striking stops mattering. The fight has two clocks running in opposite directions.

Strike Targeting (career avg)

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Range Profile — where the minutes go

MorganFelipe
90%Distance87%
5%Clinch12%
5%Ground1%

Share of significant-strike volume by range from UFC career data. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.

04

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much
Open SpaceMorgan owns it

4.02 SLpM at 50% accuracy against 2.86 at 45% — he lands 40% more, into a 65% defence

Pocket / ExchangesMorgan owns it

0.88 knockdowns per 15 min against 0.00, and three UFC knockouts across three different rounds

ClinchFelipe owns it

15.9% of Lima's R1 strikes land in the clinch against Charrière's 8.1%; Charrière lands 89% of his UFC strikes standing at distance

GroundFelipe owns it

0.73 submission attempts per 15 min against 0.29, the Naimov rear-naked choke, and 73 seconds of third-round control

Path to Victory

Morgan Charrière

One clean shot in fifteen minutes. He has knocked a man out in the first, second and third rounds of UFC fights, he drops 0.88 opponents per fifteen minutes, and Felipe Lima has never landed a knockdown in his career. If it stays a fight, the Frenchman is the only one who can end it standing.

Why they win
01
The only knockdown power in the cage

0.88 knockdowns per fifteen minutes, 15th of 78 featherweights, against Lima's 0.00. Three knockdowns dealt in thirteen UFC rounds; Lima has neither dealt nor absorbed one in nine.

02
Finishes in every round

Zecchini in the first, Miranda 27 seconds into the second, Landwehr 27 seconds into the third. There is no round of this fight in which he is not live.

03
He lands 40% more

4.02 significant strikes per minute to 2.86, at 50% accuracy to 45%. On raw offence this is not close, and Lima's answer is entirely defensive.

04
The better takedown converter

47% takedown accuracy against 27%, and 624 seconds of control dealt against 369 absorbed — a better positional ledger than Lima's, which runs the wrong way.

05
Accor Arena

A French featherweight on a French card. It is not a number, but it is the reason his first round is the loudest five minutes of the prelims.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Make round one a fight

    His first-round accuracy is 56%, his highest, and the crowd is at its loudest. Lima's first round is his most clinch-heavy at 15.9% — meet him there and make it physical before the Brazilian settles into range.

  2. 2
    Body work in the second

    32.2% of his second-round offence goes to the body, his heaviest of any round. Against a man built for 13:45, the body is how you shorten a fight you might not win on the cards.

  3. 3
    Open every round hunting

    Both his round-two and round-three finishes landed at 0:27. The pattern is not an accident — the first thirty seconds after a break is when Lima's defence has least information.

  4. 4
    Wrestle only to reset

    47% takedown accuracy is respectable, but 0.73 submission attempts per fifteen minutes is waiting on the mat. Use the level change to break rhythm, not to get on top.

  5. 5
    Never give up the back

    Lima's only Octagon finish is a rear-naked choke and his third-round control is his highest. Losing position late is the single fastest way to lose this fight.

Path to Victory

Felipe Lima

Do not be there. 65% striking defence and 2.91 absorbed per minute against a man who lands 4.02 and needs to trade — then take the third round on control and the choke, the way the Naimov fight ended.

Why they win
01
65% striking defence

6th of 79 active bantamweights, against Charrière's 54%, which is 38th of 78 featherweights and below his own division's mean. The hardest man to hit in this fight is not the one throwing.

02
Charrière's damage ledger runs backwards

205 significant strikes landed against 230 absorbed in the Octagon — a ratio of 0.89. Lima's is 0.98 with far lower volume both ways. Trading is how the Frenchman loses.

03
Built for fifteen minutes

13:45 average fight time against 8:30, and two decisions in three Octagon appearances against a man who has never won one.

04
The third round is his

73 seconds of control in his third rounds, his highest of any round, and a rear-naked choke on Muhammad Naimov at 1:15 of one. 0.73 submission attempts per fifteen minutes to Charrière's 0.29.

05
Never been stopped

Nine Octagon rounds without a knockdown absorbed, against an opponent who has been knocked down twice in thirteen and stopped in 74 seconds by Melquizael Costa.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Let him miss

    50% accuracy against a 65% defence is the whole plan. Charrière absorbs 4.51 a minute because he stands in range to land 4.02 — deny the trade and the arithmetic reverses.

  2. 2
    Survive the first five minutes

    The crowd, the 56% first-round accuracy, and 0.17 knockdowns per opening round. Nothing in the defensive plan requires being brave early.

  3. 3
    Take the fight to the fence

    15.9% of his first-round strikes land in the clinch against Charrière's 8.1%, and Charrière lands 89% of all his UFC strikes standing at distance. The fence removes his best weapon without needing a takedown.

  4. 4
    Hunt the back in the third

    73 seconds of third-round control and the Naimov choke at 1:15. His finishing equity is entirely in the last five minutes, and Charrière's ground share falls to 3.1% by then.

  5. 5
    Bank rounds, do not chase them

    Decisions are 50% of his career wins and 30 of his 55 win-shares here — the largest single bucket on the page. He does not need a finish and should not risk one.

Danger Zone

How Morgan Charrière loses

  • The Nathaniel Wood repeat: knocked down early, then out-worked for fifteen minutes by a man he cannot hit — Wood out-landed him 72-42 with the same 54% striking defence problem on display all night.

  • He chases the finish for two rounds, misses at 50% accuracy against a 65% defence, and hands over a third round in which Lima's control time doubles and the back is available.

  • At 4.51 absorbed per minute and one stoppage loss in his last six, the version where he is the one who gets hit clean is not hypothetical — it happened in December.

Danger Zone

How Felipe Lima loses

  • He walks into the shot. Charrière has knocked a man out in every round of a three-round fight and Lima has never faced power like it — Talbott out-struck him 59-26 and never came close to putting him down, which tells you nothing about what happens when someone can.

  • The Talbott problem in a smaller building: pinned against the fence for nearly five minutes without being taken down, unable to make his own offence work. Charrière controls more than he is controlled.

  • He lands 2.86 a minute. If the takedowns keep failing at 27% and the choke never appears, there is a real path where he simply does not do enough to win rounds in front of a Paris crowd.

The fight's central axis

One Man Can End It

Morgan Charrière has dealt three knockdowns in thirteen Octagon rounds and knocked a man out in the first, second and third. Felipe Lima has dealt zero in nine rounds and has a career knockdown average of 0.00. Every minute this stays a striking contest is a minute in which only one of these two men can end it early.

0.88
Charrière knockdowns per 15 min — 15th of 78 — against Lima's 0.00
Why the favourite is the favourite

The Ledger Runs Backwards

Charrière has landed 205 significant strikes in the UFC and absorbed 230 — a damage ratio of 0.89. He is a fighter who wins exchanges by having more of them, and Lima blocks 65% of what is thrown at him, sixth-best among 79 active bantamweights.

0.89
Charrière significant strikes landed per strike absorbed
The pattern nobody mentions

Twenty-Seven Seconds

Gabriel Miranda was stopped at 0:27 of the second round. Nate Landwehr was stopped at 0:27 of the third. Two of Charrière's three UFC wins ended at exactly the same moment of a round — the opening half-minute, before an opponent has re-read the range.

The correction to Lima's profile

Elite Takedown Defence Did Not Save Him

Payton Talbott landed zero takedowns from one attempt against Lima's 86% defence — and still controlled him for 4:49 against the fence across fifteen minutes. Lima has been controlled for 518 seconds in the Octagon against the 444 he has controlled. Charrière's ledger is the other way round: 624 dealt, 369 absorbed.

Where each threat lives

Two Clocks Running Opposite Ways

Charrière's knockdown rate climbs by round — 0.17, 0.25, 0.33 — and his output peaks in the second at 21.8 strikes. Lima's striking collapses to 6.7 in the third while his control time rises to 73 seconds. The Frenchman gets more dangerous standing; the Brazilian gets more dangerous on the mat.

The Five-Round Clock

Morgan Charrière danger windowFelipe Lima danger windowNeutral / contested
R1 · 0:00–5:00The Paris round

His most accurate round at 56%, 69 seconds of control, and the loudest the building will be. It is also the round Melquizael Costa needed only 74 seconds of and the round Nathaniel Wood knocked him down in — his best and worst five minutes are the same five minutes.

Critical Insight
Charrière owns the first ten minutes on measured output and owns every minute on knockdown threat; Lima owns the last five and, if he reaches them intact, owns the fight. The Frenchman's problem is that his best rounds still only produce 21.8 strikes at 52% against a 65% defence — enough to win rounds, rarely enough to end them. The Brazilian's problem is that he must be there at 10:00 to collect.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

05

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things
1

Felipe Lima blocks 65% of the strikes thrown at him, 6th of 79 active bantamweights. Morgan Charrière blocks 54% and absorbs 4.51 significant strikes a minute against the 4.02 he lands — the only negative damage ledger in the fight.

2

Charrière is the only man here who can end it standing: 0.88 knockdowns per fifteen minutes against Lima's 0.00, and UFC knockouts in the first, second and third rounds — two of them exactly 27 seconds after the bell.

3

Model: Lima 55% / Charrière 45%, conviction 4/10. The lean is defence and fight time (13:45 against 8:30); the cap is a three-fight Octagon sample, bantamweight-tagged ranks, and a Paris crowd behind the puncher.

100 Simulated Fights

Lima Decision — 30%Charrière KO/TKO — 26%Lima Submission — 14%Charrière Decision — 12%Lima KO/TKO — 11%Charrière Submission — 7%

Each square = 1 simulated fight. Morgan Charrière gold · Felipe Lima orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

The defensive gap

65% striking defence against 54%, and 2.91 absorbed per minute against 4.51. Lima's decision bucket (30 of 100) is the largest single outcome on the page precisely because he is the harder man to score against.

Knockdown asymmetry

0.88 against 0.00. Charrière's knockout path is worth 26 win-shares — the second-largest bucket — and it is the only bucket in which the fight ends because someone was hit.

Fight time

8:30 against 13:45. Charrière has never won a UFC decision and has lost two; Lima has won one and lost one. Over a full fifteen minutes the model tilts toward the man who has been there.

The third-round back-take

Lima's submission bucket is 14, the largest submission share on this prelim card, and it rests on one specific sequence: the choke that ended Muhammad Naimov at 1:15 of the third, off 73 seconds of average third-round control.

Sample and setting

Lima has three Octagon fights and nine rounds of data; Charrière has six and thirteen. Conviction is capped at four out of ten by that gap, by the division mismatch in Lima's ranks, and by a French crowd that is worth something the numbers do not carry.

Fight Scripts

0%
of simulations

The Long Version

Lima refuses the trade, blocks two thirds of what comes at him, and banks the second and third on cleaner work and control time. No drama after the opening round — the Miles Johns performance again, in a hostile building. The single most likely outcome on the page.

Scripted outcomes for Morgan Charrière vs Felipe Lima — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Morgan Charrière win probability
0%
26%
12%
7%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • His largest bucket and the second-largest on the page. 0.88 knockdowns per fifteen minutes against a man with none, 62% of his career wins by knockout, and Octagon finishes in all three rounds.

  • Only twelve points. He has never won a UFC decision, has lost two, and must out-point a 65% striking defence with 4.02 strikes a minute to get the first.

  • Seven points. Three career submission wins and 0.29 attempts per fifteen minutes — real but rare, and mostly a scramble outcome against a man who is himself hunting the back.

Felipe Lima win probability
0%
11%
30%
14%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Eleven points, and the softest number on the page. He has four career knockouts but a 0.00 UFC knockdown average across nine rounds — these are accumulation and referee stoppages, not a hunted path.

  • His largest bucket and the shape of the Miles Johns win: fifteen minutes of higher-percentage work behind a 65% defence, with the control time to close rounds. Half of his career wins are decisions.

  • Fourteen points, the largest submission share on this prelim card. 0.73 attempts per fifteen minutes, 73 seconds of average third-round control, and a rear-naked choke on Muhammad Naimov at 1:15 of a third round.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round
R1
Morgan
R2
Felipe
R3
Felipe
29-28 Lima
Charrière takes the Paris round, Lima takes the fight
The most likely card, and the model's projected line
30-27 Lima
The volume never lands and the defence never cracks
Common if the first round goes quiet
29-28 Charrière
An early knockdown plus a stolen second round
His realistic path to the cards — 12 of his 45 win-shares

Moneyline

Morgan Charrière
+181
Felipe Lima
-215

BetOnline moneyline shown above (Sep 4, 2026). Model fair prices and value notes below compare our analysis to the market where props exist — they are not alternate sportsbook lines.

Props: model vs market

PropOddsImplied %Model %FairEdgeVerdict
Best Value
Charrière by knockout is the live home prop, and the simulation backs it: 26 of his 45 win-shares, the second-largest single bucket on the page and by far the largest finishing bucket for either man. If the market prices Lima on his defensive rate stats and a hot recent division, the underdog's inside-the-distance side is where the model disagrees most sharply — Lima has never faced a featherweight with 0.88 knockdowns per fifteen minutes, and there is no round of this fight in which Charrière is not live.
Conviction
0
4/10

The closest technical matchup on the Paris prelims — a four-and-a-half point composite gap — held to four out of ten by a three-fight Octagon sample, by ranks computed in a different division, and by the fact that the man the model has losing is the only one who can end it with a punch. Lean: Felipe Lima.

What backs the lean

  • 65% striking defence, 6th of 79 active bantamweights, against Charrière's 54% and a below-mean featherweight rank.

  • Charrière's damage ledger runs backwards: 205 significant strikes landed against 230 absorbed, a ratio of 0.89.

  • 13:45 average fight time against 8:30, with two Octagon decisions against a man who has never won one.

  • 0.73 submission attempts per fifteen minutes and 73 seconds of third-round control — the choke that ended Muhammad Naimov is a repeatable sequence.

What limits it

  • Lima has three Octagon fights and nine rounds of round-by-round data; every rate on his side of the page carries that flag.

  • His ranks are computed in the 79-fighter bantamweight pool, not the featherweight pool this fight is contested in — they are not directly comparable to Charrière's.

  • 0.88 knockdowns per fifteen minutes against 0.00, with UFC knockouts in the first, second and third rounds. Lima has never been dropped, and has never been hit by anyone who does this.

  • Elite takedown defence has not stopped him being controlled: 518 seconds absorbed against 444 dealt, nearly five minutes of it by Payton Talbott without a single takedown landed.

  • Accor Arena. A French fighter, a French card, and a first round in which Charrière is already his most accurate.

Final Assessment

This is the tightest fight on the Paris prelims and the model says so: 55-45, a four-and-a-half point composite gap, conviction four out of ten. Felipe Lima is the better technical fighter by every defensive measure that exists — 65% striking defence against 54%, 2.91 absorbed per minute against 4.51, an average fight that runs five minutes longer. Morgan Charrière lands more and lands it harder, and has absorbed more significant strikes in the Octagon than he has landed. That single ratio, 0.89, is the argument for the favourite.

The argument against him is simpler and lives in one number that does not appear anywhere on Lima's page: 0.88. Charrière drops opponents. He has knocked a man out in the first round, the second round and the third round of UFC fights, twice at exactly 27 seconds after the bell, and Lima has never landed a knockdown in his career or absorbed one in nine Octagon rounds. Nothing in the Brazilian's record tells us what happens when someone with real power finds him, because nobody with real power has.

The honest read: Lima should win, on the cards, by not being where the punches are — and the version where he does not is loud, French, and over inside thirty seconds of a round starting. Take the Brazilian to bank the last ten minutes behind a defence nobody on this card can match, and understand that all fifteen of them are dangerous.

Back to UFC Fight Night: Parnasse vs. Hooker Fight Card
Skip to main content
Use Tab to navigate through elements, Enter to activate buttons and links.