Delphine Benouaich vs Sofia Montenegro: analysis & prediction

PRELIMS · WOMEN'S STRAWWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Parnasse vs. Hooker
Delphine Benouaich — Women's Strawweight fighter

Delphine Benouaich

7W2L
Brawler / Mixed-Method Finisher
…
VS
Sofia Montenegro — Women's Strawweight fighter

Sofia Montenegro

“La Bruja”
6W2L
Aggressive Finisher
…

Regional finishing breadth against one measured Contender-era sample

Women's StrawweightAccor Arena, Paris, FranceSeptember 5, 2026Standard 30ft Octagon
01

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and what the evidence cannot tell us

The Analyst's Take

Two regional finishers with almost nothing measurable in common. Delphine Benouaich owns the deeper ledger — four knockout wins, a recent guillotine, and a 7-2 record with no listed stoppage loss — but arrives with zero UFC data and no published rate line. Sofia Montenegro is the only fighter here with a Contender-era sample: 4.27 significant strikes landed per minute against 5.67 absorbed in a split-decision loss. That single line is both her best evidence and her clearest warning. The lean is Benouaich 53-47, and conviction stays at 2 out of 10 because one measured bout cannot settle a stylistic fork this wide.

Delphine Benouaich
Attribute
Sofia Montenegro
31
Age
27
5'3"
Height
+3" Montenegro5'6"
63.5"
Reach
+3.5" Montenegro67"
39"
Leg Reach
Not supplied
Not supplied
Stance
Orthodox
115 lb
Weight
115 lb
0 bouts
UFC / Contender Sample
Evidence quantity only1 bout
Mixed-method finisher
Fighting Style
Aggressive finisher

Montenegro owns every published measurement in the matchup, but that does not prove a physical advantage because Benouaich's corresponding age, height and reach are absent. Sofia is known to be 27, 5-foot-6 with a 67-inch reach and an orthodox stance. Delphine is unmeasured in the supplied source, so this page does not claim she is shorter, older or at a range disadvantage.

Venue Factor
The Paris location does not automatically create a Benouaich home edge: the supplied dossier does not state her nationality, hometown or team. The meaningful experience distinction is that Montenegro has one Contender Series sample and Benouaich has none, while Benouaich's regional record contains the more varied documented recent finishes.
02

The Fighters

Career routes, supplied form and the limits of two incomplete records

Delphine Benouaich in competition

Delphine Benouaich

Pro Record
7-2-0
UFC Record
0-0 — Octagon debut
Streak
Not stated — Cantanhede result is unresolved
Finish Rate
71% (5 of 7 wins) — 4 KO/TKO, 1 submission
Avg Fight Time
Not supplied
Chin · No supplied stoppage losses; both losses are decisionsSOS · Regional — Ares FC / KOFNot in UFC data — mixed-method finisher

Benouaich's documented window shows a first-round guillotine of Lindsey Payne, a split-decision loss to Ingrid Silva, a second-round punches stoppage of Mileide Simplicio, the unresolved Naizi Cantanhede decision, a unanimous-decision win over Anita Bekus and a first-round ground-and-pound finish of Maristela Alves. The method variety is real, but the six-fight excerpt is incomplete and the Cantanhede row cannot support a clean streak claim.

Sofia Montenegro in competition

Sofia Montenegro

Pro Record
6-2-0
UFC Record
0-0 — one Contender Series loss
Streak
Last supplied bout: split-decision loss
Finish Rate
67% (4 of 6 wins) — 3 KO/TKO, 1 submission
Avg Fight Time
Not supplied
Chin · One KO/TKO loss — R1 0:10 in 2022SOS · Regional + Contender SeriesAggressive finisher — canonical event designation

Montenegro's supplied sequence ends with a split-decision loss to Jeisla Chaves on Contender Series after decision wins over Damara Vargas and Anyela Perez. A 2023 first-round heel hook over Sofia Landi supplies her clearest documented finish, while a ten-second first-round TKO loss to Gisela Luna supplies the warning. Three omitted professional fights prevent a complete form or finish-timing profile.

Delphine Benouaich
0 dealt · 0 absorbed
Knockdown Exchange
Knockdowns dealt vs absorbed.
Sofia Montenegro
0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Delphine Benouaichsignature weapons

Punches / Ground-and-PoundMileide Simplicio, TKO R2 0:49; Maristela Alves, TKO R1 4:10
×2
GuillotineLindsey Payne, submission R1 3:10 — most recent supplied bout
×1

Sofia Montenegrosignature weapons

KO/TKO (career)Three career knockout wins; opponents and rounds are absent from the supplied excerpt
×3
Heel HookSofia Landi, submission R1 2:04
×1

Delphine Benouaich

W
Lindsey Payne
Submission — Guillotine

Opponent context: prospect

R1 (3:10)
Ares FC 36 — Dec 13, 2025
L
Ingrid Silva
Decision — Split

Opponent context: prospect

R3
Ares FC 34 — Sep 13, 2025
W
Mileide Simplicio
TKO — Punches

Opponent context: prospect

R2 (0:49)
Ares FC 30 — May 16, 2025
NC
Naizi Cantanhede
Ambiguous supplied result — originally UD loss

Opponent context: prospect

R3
KOF 12 — Dec 14, 2024
W
Anita Bekus
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: prospect

R3
KOF 8 — Oct 11, 2024
Pattern

Three unambiguous wins, one split loss and one unresolved result in the five newest supplied entries. The clean positive is route diversity: guillotine, punches and decision. The Cantanhede entry is displayed as an ambiguity rather than forced into a win or loss.

Sofia Montenegro

L
Jeisla Chaves
Decision — Split

Opponent context: prospect

R3
Contender Series 2025 — Sep 23, 2025
W
Damara Vargas
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: prospect

R3
MMA Mexico 5 — Jun 21, 2025
W
Anyela Perez
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: prospect

R3
FFC 81 — Sep 25, 2024
W
Sofia Landi
Submission — Heel hook

Opponent context: prospect

R1 (2:04)
CAM 22 — Sep 9, 2023
L
Gisela Luna
TKO — Punches

Opponent context: prospect

R1 (0:10)
FFC 53 — Sep 22, 2022
Pattern

Montenegro's last three supplied outings all reached the cards: two unanimous wins and a split loss. Her career includes three knockout wins, but none appears in this five-fight excerpt, so recent knockout form cannot be inferred.

Delphine Benouaich

Win Methods
Wins by Round

Sofia Montenegro

Win Methods
Wins by Round
Critical Insight
The method shares come from complete career win counts, but the round bars use only supplied documented rounds. Benouaich's fourth knockout and all three Montenegro knockout rounds are missing from the excerpts, so the bars are intentionally incomplete. Both women own two decision wins; Benouaich has the slight knockout-share edge and no supplied stoppage loss.

Opposition strength (no shared opponents)

Without a reliable shared-opponent table, compare who each fighter has been tested against using SOS tier, UFC sample size, and recent elite-tier form — not raw records alone.

FactorDelphineSofia
Strength of schedule (SOS tier)Regional — Ares FC / KOF — Six of nine professional bouts appear in the supplied excerptRegional + Contender Series — Five of eight professional bouts appear in the supplied excerpt
UFC sample0-0 — Octagon debut0-0 — one Contender Series loss
Recent ranked / elite touches (last 5)0 elite · 0 veteran tier0 elite · 0 veteran tier
Form-window tier points tied in the last-five sample — compare SOS notes and methods, not volume alone.
Last three opponentsLindsey Payne, Ingrid Silva, Mileide SimplicioJeisla Chaves, Damara Vargas, Anyela Perez
  • No shared opponents supplied: The supplied excerpts contain no common name, so no transitive comparison is attempted.
03

The Numbers

One measured sample, one empty rate line and no invented ranks

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and UFC experience before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

Editorial résumé score — not a UFC rate composite

0
Delphinefew UFC fights
0
Sofiafew UFC fights

Benouaich's four knockout wins and two documented recent TKOs edge Montenegro's one-sample 4.27 landed / 5.67 absorbed differential. Missing Benouaich rates cap the gap at four points.

Grappling

Editorial résumé score — one supplied submission each

0
Delphinefew UFC fights
0
Sofiafew UFC fights

A recent Benouaich guillotine and a Montenegro heel hook are the usable evidence. Sofia's 100% takedown defense is one-sample data; Delphine has no takedown line.

Technical

(Editorial striking + grappling) / 2

0.0
Delphinefew UFC fights
0.0
Sofiafew UFC fights

A two-point separation built from résumé evidence, not measured UFC comparables.

Cardio

Decision history only — no round-level pace data

0
Delphinefew UFC fights
0
Sofiafew UFC fights

Both women have two decision wins. Neither has supplied average fight time or round-three output.

Overall

(Technical + cardio) / 2

0.0
Delphinefew UFC fights
0.0
Sofiafew UFC fights

The one-point gap is deliberately small and supports only a 53-47 lean.

MetricDelphineSofia
UFC / Contender Sample0 boutsfew UFC fights1 boutfew UFC fights
Avg Fight TimeN/Afew UFC fightsN/Afew UFC fights
Career Decision Wins22
Career KO Losses01
Round-by-Round DataNonefew UFC fightsNone suppliedfew UFC fights

Archetype Base Rate

Mixed-Method Finisher 50%50% Aggressive Finisher

No repository archetype base-rate row · No archetype base rate is applied. The 53-47 lean comes from career method breadth and is pulled toward 50 by missing physicals, incomplete histories and the unmatched rate samples.

Delphine BenouaichSofia Montenegro

Women's Strawweight

No comparable division benchmark is published for this sample. These values describe each fighter; no division rank is assigned.

StatDelphineSofia
SLpMN/A4.27 ⚠
Str AccN/A40% ⚠
Str DefN/A48% ⚠
SApMN/A5.67 ⚠
TD/15N/A1.00 ⚠
TD AccN/A25% ⚠
TD DefN/A100% ⚠
Sub/15N/A0.0 ⚠
Pro Record7-2-06-2-0
KO Win %56% (4 of 7)50% (3 of 6)
Submission Wins11
Decision Wins22
KO Losses01
Physicals5'3" · 63.5" · age 315'6" · 67" · age 27
Statistical Verdict
The table is asymmetric because the evidence is asymmetric. Sofia has one real rate line; Delphine has none. Zeroes are never shown as Benouaich's performance, and Sofia's 100% takedown defense is not labeled elite because a one-bout denominator cannot establish that. The comparable career columns create a slight Benouaich résumé edge; the sample-quality column favors Montenegro.

Delphine Benouaich

  • No UFC round-by-round output, accuracy, control-time or knockdown data exists for Benouaich. Every chart value remains null.
  • The supplied timing proxies are a guillotine at R1 3:10, ground-and-pound at R1 4:10 and punches at R2 0:49.
  • Two career decision wins and two decision losses establish fifteen-minute experience, not a round-three pace profile.

Sofia Montenegro

  • No usable round-by-round rows were supplied for Montenegro. Her aggregate one-bout rates cannot be reverse-engineered into rounds.
  • The supplied timing proxies are a heel hook at R1 2:04 and a TKO loss at R1 0:10.
  • Her last three supplied outings reached decisions, but no per-round totals show where she was strongest.
Critical Insight
Round 1 is the only window with documented finish evidence on both sides. Benouaich owns the only supplied Round-2 finish. The histories are incomplete, so these are timing clues rather than a complete finish distribution.
04

The Story of the Fight

Route diversity, measured pace and the uncertainty between them

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much
Open SpaceSofia owns it

Sofia has the only known reach and pace line, but Delphine's dimensions are absent

Pocket / ExchangesDelphine owns it

Four career KO wins against Sofia's one-sample negative striking differential

ClinchEven

No comparable clinch or control-time data exists

GroundEven

One supplied submission each; Sofia's 100% TD defense is one-sample evidence

Path to Victory

Delphine Benouaich

Disrupt Sofia's pace, turn exchanges into clinch or scramble sequences, and let the broader punch/GnP/guillotine toolkit create two winning rounds.

Why they win
01
More documented finish variety

Guillotine, punches and ground-and-pound all appear in the supplied six-fight excerpt.

02
Slightly deeper record

Nine professional bouts against Montenegro's eight, with a 7-2 aggregate.

03
Higher knockout share

Four of seven wins by KO/TKO (56%) against three of six (50%).

04
No supplied stoppage losses

Both listed defeats are decisions; Montenegro owns one ten-second TKO loss.

05
Multiple finish routes

Twenty-one KO points, twenty-two decision points and ten submission points prevent dependence on one script.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Break the rhythm

    Do not accept a pure volume match; make Sofia reset with pressure and feints.

  2. 2
    Mix phases

    Use clinch and level-change threats to interrupt the orthodox jab and combination flow.

  3. 3
    Attack transitions

    The recent guillotine is the clearest submission weapon and should be hunted during scrambles, not forced.

  4. 4
    Damage from top

    Ground-and-pound is a documented finish route and may score even when the submission is absent.

  5. 5
    Bank the round

    Two decision wins show the cards are a legitimate path; avoid sacrificing position for a low-percentage finish.

Path to Victory

Sofia Montenegro

Use the known 67-inch reach and 4.27-strike pace efficiently enough that the 5.67 absorbed-per-minute warning does not repeat.

Why they win
01
The only measured sample

One Contender Series bout supplies direct pace, accuracy and defensive evidence where Benouaich has none.

02
Known physical profile

Age 27, 5-foot-6, 67-inch reach and orthodox stance; Benouaich is unmeasured.

03
Decision continuity

Her last three supplied outings all reached the cards, producing two wins and one split loss.

04
Heel-hook threat

A first-round heel hook over Sofia Landi gives her a distinct submission route.

05
Work rate

4.27 SLpM is a real pace marker, even though 5.67 SApM makes its efficiency questionable.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Establish the jab

    Use the known 67-inch reach without assuming an unverified length edge.

  2. 2
    Improve shot selection

    Raise efficiency above the supplied 40% accuracy rather than chasing volume alone.

  3. 3
    Exit cleanly

    The 5.67 absorbed-per-minute sample says exchanges cannot end with Sofia stationary.

  4. 4
    Protect the neck

    Benouaich's latest supplied win is a first-round guillotine.

  5. 5
    Win clearly

    Three straight supplied decisions include a split loss; produce visible damage rather than another marginal card.

Danger Zone

How Delphine Benouaich loses

  • The missing physical profile conceals a real length or athletic disadvantage and she cannot close range.

  • Regional finishing does not translate, while Montenegro's one measured sample proves more predictive than the résumé.

  • The unresolved Cantanhede result and incomplete excerpt make her recent form look cleaner than it is.

Danger Zone

How Sofia Montenegro loses

  • The negative 4.27-to-5.67 striking differential repeats and another close fight reaches the wrong side of the cards.

  • Benouaich attacks the neck in transition before the one-sample 100% takedown-defense figure can matter.

  • The ten-second knockout-loss pattern resurfaces against a fighter with four career stoppages by strikes.

One measured sample against none

The Evidence Asymmetry

Montenegro is easier to describe statistically and harder to endorse statistically. Her one sample supplies pace but also a negative 4.27 landed to 5.67 absorbed differential. Benouaich's unknown rates cannot be treated as better.

-1.40
Montenegro supplied significant-strike differential per minute
Benouaich's narrow separator

Method Breadth

Her supplied recent wins arrive by guillotine, punches, ground-and-pound and decision. Montenegro's last three supplied bouts all reached the cards.

3
distinct finish routes in Benouaich's supplied excerpt
Documented, not resolved

The Cantanhede Asterisk

The source describes an original unanimous-decision loss later overturned to a win after a failed doping test, then warns that wording conflicts. The 7-2 aggregate is retained, but the bout supports no streak claim.

A live path, not a chin verdict

The Ten-Second Warning

Montenegro's 2022 loss to Gisela Luna ended by punches at 0:10 of Round 1. One old result does not prove fragility, but it keeps Benouaich's 56% career knockout share relevant.

0:10
time of Montenegro's supplied TKO loss
No zero substitution

Missing Means Missing

Benouaich has no rate or physical profile, neither fighter has usable round-by-round data, and no division ranks or odds were supplied. The blank charts are the accurate result.

The Five-Round Clock

Delphine Benouaich danger windowSofia Montenegro danger windowNeutral / contested
R1 · 0:00–5:00Documented volatility

Both own supplied first-round submissions; Benouaich also owns first-round ground-and-pound, while Montenegro suffered a ten-second TKO loss.

Critical Insight
The matchup does not justify a confident momentum curve. Benouaich's documented Round-2 TKO creates the only directional marker; Rounds 1 and 3 remain neutral because the underlying histories are incomplete.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

05

The Verdict

One hundred scenarios, low conviction — and why the data stops short

If you only read 3 things
1

Benouaich 53% / Montenegro 47%, conviction 2/10 — a three-point lean built from finish breadth against the only measured rate sample in the fight.

2

Benouaich has four knockout wins and no listed stoppage loss; Montenegro's Contender sample shows 4.27 landed against 5.67 absorbed per minute.

3

Benouaich has no published UFC rates; Montenegro's 100% takedown defense is a one-bout sample. Cantanhede remains unresolved in the supplied record.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Benouaich Decision — 22%Benouaich KO/TKO — 21%Benouaich Submission — 10%Montenegro Decision — 22%Montenegro KO/TKO — 20%Montenegro Submission — 5%

Each square = 1 model percentage point. Delphine Benouaich gold · Sofia Montenegro orange · color opacity: 100% = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Career method distribution

Benouaich owns a 56% knockout share and more documented recent finish variety.

One-sample striking warning

Montenegro landed 4.27 significant strikes per minute but absorbed 5.67 in her only supplied rate sample.

Durability ledger

Benouaich's supplied losses are both decisions; Montenegro has one ten-second TKO loss.

Decision floor

Both have two decision wins, and Montenegro's last three supplied outings reached the cards.

Missing-data penalty

No Benouaich rates or physicals, three absent Montenegro fights, an incomplete Benouaich excerpt, ambiguous Cantanhede wording and no round-level data cap conviction at 2.

Fight Scripts

0%
of simulations

The Margin Fight

Neither regional finish path translates cleanly and the fight reaches a close decision. Each woman owns 22 decision points, making 29-28 either way the dominant distance script.

Scripted outcomes for Delphine Benouaich vs Sofia Montenegro — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Delphine Benouaich win probability
0%
21%
22%
10%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Twenty-one points. Four of seven career wins are KO/TKO, including supplied punches and ground-and-pound finishes.

  • Twenty-two points, tied for the largest bucket. She has two decision wins and both supplied career losses are decisions.

  • Ten points. One career submission win, supplied as a first-round guillotine in her most recent listed fight.

Sofia Montenegro win probability
0%
20%
22%
5%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Twenty points. Three of six career wins are knockouts, but none appears in the supplied recent five and no finish rounds are available.

  • Twenty-two points, tied for the largest bucket. Her last three supplied bouts reached the cards: two unanimous wins and one split loss.

  • Five points. The first-round heel hook is real, but the supplied rate sample records 0.0 submission attempts per fifteen minutes.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round
R1
Sofia
R2
Delphine
R3
Delphine
29-28 Benouaich
Preferred lean: Sofia starts faster, Delphine's route diversity takes two rounds
Slightly preferred distance outcome
29-28 Montenegro
Known pace and cleaner range work hold across two rounds
Nearly as likely
30-27 either way
One fighter's incomplete profile proves materially stronger than expected
Possible, not analytically preferred

Model and price

Delphine Benouaich: Not posted · Sofia Montenegro: Not posted

No BetOnline line was supplied or found in the authorized source material, so no market price is invented. The 53-47 split converts to approximate fair prices of Benouaich -113 and Montenegro +113 before bookmaker margin.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

No bet recommended. Benouaich by decision and Montenegro by decision are tied as the largest individual buckets at 22%, and conviction is only 2/10. A market would need to diverge materially from the 53-47 line before this data gap could justify action.

Conviction
0
2/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

A three-point lean built from career method breadth and the durability ledger, capped aggressively by unmatched samples and unresolved source gaps. Lean: Delphine Benouaich.

What backs the lean

  • Four knockout wins, a recent guillotine and documented punches/ground-and-pound finishes create the broader route set.

  • Both supplied losses are decisions; Montenegro owns one ten-second TKO loss.

  • A 7-2 record is slightly deeper than 6-2, with the same number of decision wins.

What limits it

  • Benouaich has zero UFC data and no supplied age, height, reach, stance or rate line.

  • Montenegro's one sample is too small to stabilize either the negative striking differential or 100% takedown defense.

  • Three Montenegro fights and three Benouaich bouts are absent from the supplied excerpts.

  • The Cantanhede outcome remains ambiguous and cannot support a clean form claim.

Final Assessment

This is a near coin flip disguised as a statistical comparison. Montenegro supplies the only rate line, but it came in one split-decision loss and contains both the positive — 4.27 SLpM and 100% takedown defense — and the warning — 5.67 absorbed per minute, 40% accuracy and 48% defense. Benouaich supplies the broader finishing ledger but none of the measurements that would show whether it translates.

The 53-47 lean goes to Benouaich because four knockout wins, a recent guillotine, two decision-only losses and multiple documented finish routes create a slightly wider path set than Montenegro's decision-heavy recent window. That edge is three percentage points, not a declaration.

Pick: Delphine Benouaich 53% / Sofia Montenegro 47%. Benouaich by decision is a co-leading bucket at 22%, tied with Montenegro by decision. Conviction remains 2/10, and no bet is recommended without a market and materially better data.

Back to UFC Fight Night: Parnasse vs. Hooker Fight Card
Skip to main content
Use Tab to navigate through elements, Enter to activate buttons and links.