PRELIMS · FLYWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Parnasse vs. Hooker
Fabia Sintes — Flyweight fighter

Fabia Sintes

“El Potro Menorquín”
11W3L
Submission Hunter
…
VS
Michael Aljarouj — Flyweight fighter

Michael Aljarouj

“The Soldier”
13W3L
Power Striker
…

Seven straight wins against seventeen months out of the cage

FlyweightAccor Arena, Paris, FranceSeptember 5, 2026Standard 30ft Octagon
01

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

The method tables invert perfectly, and that is the whole fight. Fabia Sintes wins 36% of his fights by submission — four of eleven, three of them rear-naked chokes — and has never been knocked out in fourteen professional bouts. Michael Aljarouj wins 54% of his by knockout — seven of thirteen, including a right hook that ended Pedro Nobre in seventy seconds — and has been stopped twice himself. One man is unbeaten in seven and fought five months ago; the other has not had a decisive result since November 2024. Grappler durability against striker power, on a night when neither has ever walked to a UFC cage before.

Fabia Sintes
Attribute
Michael Aljarouj
32
Age
29
5'7"+2" Sintes
Height
5'5"
65"
Reach
+1" Aljarouj66"
40"
Leg Reach
39"
Not published
Stance
Not published
MMA Barcelona Team
Team
Old School Academy
Sep 5, 2026 (this fight)
Octagon Debut
Sep 5, 2026 (this fight)
Grappling — rear-naked choke hunter
Fighting Style
Power striking — right-hook finisher
Mar 28, 2026 (WOW 28)5 months vs ~17
Last Cage Time
Apr 12, 2025 (HXMMA 26 — NC)

Aljarouj owns a one-inch reach edge (66" vs 65") despite giving up two inches of height (5'7" Sintes vs 5'5" Aljarouj). Both leg reaches are published — 40" vs 39" — so the tape is complete for a debut duel. What separates them more than the measurables is the calendar: Sintes weighed in at 124.8 lbs and fought in March 2026, while Aljarouj's last time in a cage was April 2025 and it ended in a No Contest.

Venue Factor
Dual debuts delete the usual separator. There is no Octagon experience to compare, no UFC rate line to rank, and no shared opponent between the two records — Sintes has fought the Iberian circuit, Aljarouj the French one. What remains is style and calendar: a seven-fight submission heater against a 54% knockout rate that has been idle for seventeen months. Three rounds is long enough for Sintes's mat game to arrive twice and short enough that one Aljarouj right hand ends the argument.
02

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Fabia Sintes celebrating a win

Fabia Sintes

Pro Record
11-3-0
UFC Record
0-0 — Octagon debut
Streak
7 wins — unbeaten since June 2023
Finish Rate
64% (7 of 11 wins) — 4 submissions, 3 KO/TKO
Avg Fight Time
Not published — no UFC bouts
Chin · Never knocked out (0 KO losses in 14 pro fights)SOS · Iberian RegionalNot in DB — grappler / RNC hunter (dossier read)

The 32-year-old Menorcan has not lost since June 2023, when Héctor Ferral out-pointed him over three rounds at Combate Global, and the seven wins since then have hardened into an identity. Five of them came in WOW, three by submission: a rear-naked choke of Abdul Karim Badakhshi at 3:11 of the third in March 2026, an armbar on Amir Malekpour at 4:34 of the third in November 2025, and a first-round choke of Cherif Larossi in February 2025. Four of his eleven career wins are submissions and three are knockouts, which makes him a 64% finisher who is nonetheless perfectly comfortable banking a decision — four of his wins came on the cards. The defensive line is the one that travels best to this level: three losses, one submission and two decisions, and not a single knockout defeat in fourteen professional fights.

Michael Aljarouj in competition

Michael Aljarouj

Pro Record
13-3-0 (2 NC)
UFC Record
0-0 — Octagon debut
Streak
6 wins, then a No Contest — last decisive result Nov 2024
Finish Rate
77% (10 of 13 wins) — 7 KO/TKO, 3 submissions
Avg Fight Time
Not published — no UFC bouts
Chin · Stopped twice — 2 KO/TKO losses, 0 submission lossesSOS · French Regional + BRAVENot in DB — power striker (dossier read)

The Frenchman rebuilt himself around power after the worst night of his career: a third-round TKO loss to Azat Maksum at BRAVE CF 48 in March 2021, stopped fifty-three seconds into the final round. Everything since has been a knockout argument — Sylvain Sommereisen stopped in the third in October 2022, Nuno Costa retiring on his stool after the first in October 2023, Leno Rodrigo finished by hooks, a knee and ground-and-pound at 1:41 of the second in June 2024, and Pedro Nobre dropped by a single right hook at 1:10 of the first in November 2024. Seven of his thirteen wins are knockouts and ten are finishes, a 77% finish rate that is the highest number on this page. Then the record stops. His April 2025 bout with Romero dos Reis was overturned to a No Contest, and he arrives in Paris with roughly seventeen months since he last competed and twenty-two since he last had his hand raised.

Fabia Sintes
0 dealt · 0 absorbed
Knockdown Exchange
KD dealt vs absorbed
Michael Aljarouj
0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Fabia Sintessignature weapons

Rear-Naked ChokeBadakhshi R3 3:11 (Mar 2026), Larossi R1 3:28 (Feb 2025), Jose Muriel R1 — his signature finish
×3
ArmbarAmir Malekpour, R3 4:34 (WOW 24, Nov 2025) — the second of back-to-back third-round submissions
×1
Ground-and-Pound TKOMohamed El Goundeuz, R1 1:40 (Nov 2024) — proof the top position scores as well as it chokes
×1

Michael Aljaroujsignature weapons

Right HookPedro Nobre, TKO R1 1:10 (Hexagone 21, Nov 2024) — the cleanest single shot on his record
×1
KO/TKO (all forms)54% of thirteen wins: Rodrigo R2 1:41 by hooks/knee/GnP, Nuno Costa by retirement after R1, Sommereisen R3 3:23
×7
Submissions3 of 13 wins; techniques and rounds are not published in the available fight log
×3

Fabia Sintes

W
Abdul Karim Badakhshi
Submission — RNC
RR3 (3:11)
WOW 28 Barcelona — Mar 28, 2026
W
Amir Malekpour
Submission — Armbar
RR3 (4:34)
WOW 24 Vitoria — Nov 2025
W
Davi Santos
Decision — Unanimous
RR3
WOW 20
W
Cherif Larossi
Submission — RNC
RR1 (3:28)
WOW 16 Bilbao — Feb 2025
W
Mohamed El Goundeuz
TKO — Ground-and-pound
RR1 (1:40)
Llescas i Sobrasadas 2 — Nov 2024
Pattern

Five wins, three submissions, zero losses in this window, and a clear preference about when to finish. Two of the three chokes came late — Badakhshi at 3:11 of the third, Malekpour by armbar at 4:34 of the third — which says he is content to spend ten minutes setting up the position he actually wants. The other two finishes came inside the first four minutes, so he is not purely a late fighter, and the Davi Santos decision proves he will take fifteen ugly minutes if the neck never appears. The honest caveat is the opposition: this is the WOW roster, not the UFC flyweight division, and none of these names carries a ranked résumé.

Michael Aljarouj

NC
Romero dos Reis
Overturned — No Contest
R—
Hexagone MMA 26 — Apr 12, 2025
W
Pedro Nobre
TKO — Right hook
RR1 (1:10)
Hexagone MMA 21 — Nov 2024
W
Leno Rodrigo
TKO — Hooks/knee/GnP
RR2 (1:41)
Hexagone MMA 18 — Jun 2024
W
Liridon Ramani
Decision — Unanimous
RR3
JSC 1
W
Nuno Costa
TKO — Retirement
RR1 (5:00)
MMA GP — Oct 2023
Pattern

Three knockouts, one decision, one No Contest — a window that shows exactly what he does when it works and almost nothing about what happens when it does not. The Nobre finish is the cleanest data point on his record: one right hook, seventy seconds, done. The Rodrigo win shows a second gear, hooks into a knee into ground-and-pound at 1:41 of the second. But the sequence ends in April 2025 with a result that was wiped from the books, and the model has to price seventeen months of inactivity into a debut against a man who fought in March.

Fabia Sintes

Win Methods
Wins by Round

Michael Aljarouj

Win Methods
Wins by Round
Critical Insight
The donuts are mirror images and that is the fight in one graphic. Sintes: 36% submissions, 27% knockouts, and zero knockout losses in fourteen professional fights. Aljarouj: 54% knockouts, 23% submissions, and two knockout losses of his own. The round bars are scoped to the finishes whose rounds are actually documented — nine of Sintes's eleven wins and seven of Aljarouj's thirteen — because neither man's full regional round breakdown is published, and the missing entries are all knockouts rather than a hidden pattern. Note the empty column: Sintes has not finished anyone in a second round on record, while Aljarouj's finishes are spread evenly across all three.

Common Opponents

OpponentFabiaMichael
No shared opponents—WOW, Combate Global, AFL (Iberian circuit)—100% Fight, Hexagone, MMA GP, BRAVE (French circuit)
There is not one name in common across the two records. The rows below are style proxies, not genuine common opponents
Azat Maksum (style proxy)—(blueprint for Sintes)L· TKO R3 0:53 (BRAVE CF 48, Mar 2021)
The highest-level opponent on either record, and the one night Aljarouj was broken late — the exact shape of Sintes's two most recent submissions
Héctor Ferral (style proxy)L· UD3 (Combate Global, Jun 2023)—(blueprint for Aljarouj)
The last man to beat Sintes did it on the cards over fifteen minutes, not with power — the range-control template rather than the knockout one
03

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Striking

Scouting estimate — no UFC rate line exists for either fighter

0
Fabiasmall sample
0
Michaelsmall sample

Aljarouj's eight-point edge is the largest gap on the page and rests on the record rather than on rates: 54% of his wins by knockout against 27%, and a documented one-shot finish of Pedro Nobre in seventy seconds. Sintes's striking is real but secondary — his one knockout in this window was ground-and-pound, not a stand-up exchange.

Grappling

Scouting estimate — no UFC rate line exists for either fighter

0
Fabiasmall sample
0
Michaelsmall sample

Eleven points the other way, and better evidenced than the striking line. Four submission wins including a third-round rear-naked choke five months ago, against one career submission loss in 2019. Aljarouj has three submission wins of his own and has never been tapped, but his last three years are entirely striking-first and he has not been stress-tested by a dedicated choke hunter.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

0
Fabiasmall sample
0.0
Michaelsmall sample

A point and a half. The striking gap and the grappling gap very nearly cancel, which is the arithmetic reason this fight prices as a coin flip rather than as a style mismatch.

Cardio

Late-round record · finish timing · activity

0
Fabiasmall sample
0
Michaelsmall sample

Sintes's last two submissions both came in the third round, at 3:11 and 4:34, and he has four decision wins — he demonstrably works late. Aljarouj has third-round history in both directions, a TKO win over Sommereisen at 3:23 and the Maksum defeat at 0:53, and seventeen months of inactivity softens the number further.

Overall

(Technical + Cardio) / 2

0.0
Fabiasmall sample
0.0
Michaelsmall sample

Three composite points to Sintes, driven by grappling form and activity, and a 52-48 model line that sits right on top of them.

MetricFabiaMichael
Avg Fight TimeN/A — no UFC boutssmall sampleN/A — no UFC boutssmall sample
Pace TierN/A — no rate linesmall sampleN/A — no rate linesmall sample
R3 Record2 recent R3 submissions (3:11, 4:34)1 R3 TKO win, 1 R3 TKO loss (0:53)
Layoff into Sep 55 months (Mar 28, 2026)~17 months (Apr 12, 2025 NC)
Champ RoundsN/A — 3-round boutN/A — 3-round bout

Archetype Base Rate

Grappler / Submission Hunter 50%50% Power Striker

No archetype base-rate row — neither fighter has a database archetype · No historical archetype win-rate is applied, because neither man has a database row from which to draw one. The 52-48 lean comes from the analysis file and rests on three things it can actually evidence: recent grappling form, a five-month layoff against seventeen, and a knockout-loss ledger reading 0 against 2.

Fabia SintesMichael Aljarouj

Flyweight

· 45 fighters
StatFabiaFabia rankDiv avgMichael rankMichael
SLpMN/A—~3.82—N/A
Str AccN/A—~46.6%—N/A
Str DefN/A—~55.2%—N/A
SApMN/A—~3.47—N/A
KD AvgN/A—~0.82—N/A
TD/15N/A—~1.57—N/A
TD AccN/A—~36.7%—N/A
TD DefN/A—~61.6%—N/A
Sub/15N/A—~0.78—N/A
Avg Fight TimeN/A———N/A
Pro Record11-3-0———13-3-0 (2 NC)
Win Streak7———6 (+1 NC)
KO Win %27% (3 of 11)———54% (7 of 13)
Sub Win %36% (4 of 11)———23% (3 of 13)
KO Losses0———2
Sub Losses1 (2019)———0
ReachNot published———68"
Statistical Verdict
The top half of this table is empty on purpose. Neither fighter has thrown a strike in a UFC cage, so there is no SLpM, no striking defence, no takedown rate and no percentile for either of them — the division averages are shown alone, as the bar both men will be measured against from September 5 onwards. What can be compared is the bottom half, and it splits cleanly: Aljarouj has the power column at 54% knockouts, Sintes has the submission column at 36% and the durability column at zero knockout losses. The flyweight division averages 0.78 submission attempts and 0.82 knockdowns per fifteen minutes, which is to say both of these paths are live at this weight.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

⚠ R1, R2, R3: single-fight sample for Fabia Sintes

⚠ R1, R2, R3: single-fight sample for Michael Aljarouj

Control Time per Round (sec)

Fabia Sintes

  • No UFC round-by-round rows exist. Sintes has never fought in the Octagon, so there is no output, accuracy, control-time or knockdown data to show — these rows are empty rather than estimated.
  • The regional proxy is the finish log: rear-naked choke at 3:11 of the third, armbar at 4:34 of the third, rear-naked choke at 3:28 of the first. His finishes cluster in the back half of whichever round they arrive in.
  • Four of his eleven wins went to the cards over three rounds, so fifteen minutes is familiar territory — against WOW-level opposition rather than UFC flyweights.

Michael Aljarouj

  • No UFC round-by-round rows exist. Aljarouj is also a debutant, so his side of every chart on this page is intentionally blank.
  • The finish log is the only round-level evidence: right hook at 1:10 of the first, ground-and-pound at 1:41 of the second, a corner retirement after the first, and a TKO at 3:23 of the third.
  • The counter-evidence sits in the same column — his only stoppage defeat came 53 seconds into a third round, against Azat Maksum at BRAVE CF 48.
Critical Insight
There is no round-by-round data for this fight, and pretending otherwise would be the single easiest way to mislead a reader on this page. What the finish log substitutes is a timing argument rather than an output one: Aljarouj's documented finishes cluster early — 1:10 of the first, 1:41 of the second, a retirement after the first — while Sintes's two most recent came at 3:11 and 4:34 of a third round. The fight has a shape even without a single significant strike on record, and the shape is that danger changes hands as the clock runs.

Strike Targeting (career avg)

No UFC strike-target data for either fighter — nothing is estimated.

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage. Fighters without UFC samples are omitted rather than shown as 0%.

Range Profile — where the minutes go

Fabia · N/AMichael · N/A

No UFC range-share data for either fighter — nothing is estimated.

Share of significant-strike volume by range from UFC career data. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.

04

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much
Open SpaceMichael owns it

The only published reach in the fight (68") and a 54% knockout rate — Sintes's reach has never been measured

Pocket / ExchangesMichael owns it

Seven career knockouts, including a single right hook that ended Pedro Nobre at 1:10

ClinchFabia owns it

The body-lock-to-back sequence that set up three rear-naked chokes; Aljarouj's clinch work is offensive rather than defensive

GroundFabia owns it

4 submission wins against 1 career submission loss (2019); Aljarouj has never been tapped but has not faced a choke hunter in three years

Path to Victory

Fabia Sintes

Get it to the mat and keep it there. Four submission wins, two of them in the last sixteen months and both in a third round — he does not need the choke early, he needs the fight to still be his at the ten-minute mark.

Why they win
01
The submission monopoly

Four submission wins in eleven — 36% — including a rear-naked choke at 3:11 of the third five months ago. Aljarouj has never been submitted, but he has also not faced a dedicated choke hunter in three striking-first years.

02
Never knocked out

Zero knockout losses in fourteen professional fights, against an opponent whose entire case is a 54% knockout rate. The one thing Aljarouj does best is the one thing that has never worked on Sintes.

03
Five months against seventeen

He fought on March 28, 2026. Aljarouj's last cage time was April 2025 and it was overturned to a No Contest; his last decisive result was November 2024, twenty-two months out.

04
He works late

His two most recent submissions arrived at 3:11 and 4:34 of the third round. Aljarouj's only stoppage loss arrived 53 seconds into a third round.

05
He can win ugly

Four of eleven wins on the cards. If the neck never appears, banking rounds on control is a path he has already walked three times in this streak.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Pressure to the fence immediately

    Do not trade at range with a man who ended Pedro Nobre in seventy seconds. Cut the cage, get the body lock, and make it a wrestling match from the first minute.

  2. 2
    Hunt the back, not the takedown

    Three of his four submissions are rear-naked chokes. The body lock to the back is the sequence, and it scores control time even when the choke never arrives.

  3. 3
    Spend rounds one and two buying round three

    Both of his recent submissions came after ten minutes of work. Grinding is not a fallback here — it is the setup.

  4. 4
    Tax the layoff

    Seventeen months out of the cage is a cardio question nobody can answer for Aljarouj, including Aljarouj. Make the first round expensive.

  5. 5
    Take the decision if it is there

    Four career wins on the cards. Twenty-two of his 52 win-shares are decisions — the biggest single bucket on his side of the page.

Path to Victory

Michael Aljarouj

One clean right hand. Pedro Nobre lasted seventy seconds against it, and 54% of Aljarouj's wins have ended with an opponent unable to continue.

Why they win
01
Fifty-four per cent

Seven of thirteen wins by knockout, against 27% the other way. The Nobre finish — one right hook, 1:10 of the first — is the single cleanest piece of evidence on either record.

02
The only published reach

68 inches and an inch of height. Sintes's reach has never been listed, which means Aljarouj is the only man here with a measurable length advantage to work behind.

03
Three years younger

29 against 32, in a division where the flyweight pace punishes the older man first — and Sintes's grappling entries are the most physically expensive thing either fighter will attempt.

04
A 77% finish rate

Ten of thirteen wins ended inside the distance. He does not need judges, and against a debutant he has never seen, that removes a whole category of variance.

05
Paris

A French fighter on a Hexagone-to-UFC pipeline in front of an Accor Arena crowd. Soft as edges go, but it is real, and it is on his side of the cage.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Jab, then right hand

    68 inches of published reach against a man whose reach has never been measured. Keep the fight at the end of the jab and let the hook do what it did to Nobre.

  2. 2
    Stuff the entry, punish the exit

    Every failed shot is a free window. Sintes's grappling is his whole fight — make each attempt cost him a clean counter.

  3. 3
    Finish early

    77% of his wins ended inside the distance and his documented finishes come at 1:10, 1:41 and end-of-round-one. His KO bucket is 26 of his 48 win-shares; his decision bucket is 14.

  4. 4
    Never give up the back

    Three of Sintes's four submissions are rear-naked chokes. If the body lock lands, hand-fight and turn in — do not accept the position and try to survive it.

  5. 5
    Get up, immediately

    Do not spend a third round on the mat. The Maksum loss says he can be broken late; the whole plan is to make sure there is no late.

Danger Zone

How Fabia Sintes loses

  • He walks onto the right hook while closing distance — the Nobre replay, and the one shot his fourteen-fight durability record has never had to survive.

  • He cannot close the gap against 68 inches for fifteen minutes and loses a range decision, the way Héctor Ferral beat him in June 2023.

  • Octagon debut nerves at 32, against a home fighter and a hostile arena, and the grappling entries that beat the WOW roster stall against a genuinely powerful flyweight.

Danger Zone

How Michael Aljarouj loses

  • Seventeen months of rust shows in the first five minutes, and by the time he is sharp he is already on his back.

  • He spends himself defending shots, gets taken down in the third, and taps — the exact pattern Sintes ran twice in his last three fights.

  • The Maksum fight repeats: he is broken late by a fighter who never stopped coming, and the third round arrives with his legs gone.

The fight's central axis

The Method Inversion

Sintes wins 36% of his fights by submission and has never been knocked out in fourteen professional bouts. Aljarouj wins 54% by knockout and has been stopped twice. Each man's best weapon points directly at the other's most proven strength — the grappler's chin has held against everyone, and the striker's neck has never been seriously hunted.

0 vs 2
career knockout losses — Sintes vs Aljarouj
The inactivity tax

The Seventeen-Month Gap

Aljarouj last stepped into a cage on April 12, 2025, and that fight was overturned to a No Contest. His last decisive win was Pedro Nobre in November 2024 — twenty-two months before this debut. Sintes fought on March 28, 2026 and submitted his man in the third round.

17
months since Aljarouj's last cage time
Where the clock points

Round Three Is Red

Sintes's last two finishes came at 3:11 and 4:34 of a third round. Aljarouj's only stoppage defeat came at 0:53 of a third round, against Azat Maksum at BRAVE CF 48. If this fight is still alive at the ten-minute mark, both records say the same thing about who owns the last five minutes.

R3
Sintes's last 2 submissions · Aljarouj's only KO loss
The honest caveat

Two Empty Database Rows

There is no UFC rate line, no round-by-round profile and no division rank for either fighter, because neither has ever fought in the Octagon. Every chart on this page that would normally hold measured data is blank. That is not a gap in the research — it is the accurate state of the evidence, and it is why conviction is 3 out of 10.

No line connects the records

Different Continents of Competition

Sintes built his streak on the Iberian circuit — WOW, Combate Global, AFL. Aljarouj built his in France — 100% Fight, Hexagone, MMA GP — with one BRAVE CF appearance. There is not a single shared opponent between them, so even the weak transitive evidence that usually breaks a tie is unavailable here.

The Five-Round Clock

Fabia Sintes danger windowMichael Aljarouj danger windowNeutral / contested
R1 · 0:00–5:00The Soldier's window

Pedro Nobre lasted 1:10 and Nuno Costa did not answer the bell for the second. Aljarouj's knockout bucket is 26 of 100 — the largest single outcome on the page — and most of it lives here, before the rust and the grappling both start to tell.

Critical Insight
Danger changes hands on a timer. Aljarouj's documented finishes are all early — 1:10, 1:41, a corner stoppage after the first — while Sintes's last two came deep in a third round. The model's 52-48 is essentially a bet that fifteen minutes is long enough for the fight to reach the half where the grappler lives, and the 48 is the acknowledgement that it very often is not.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

05

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things
1

The method tables invert exactly: Sintes wins 36% by submission with zero knockout losses in fourteen fights; Aljarouj wins 54% by knockout and has been stopped twice. Each man's best weapon points at the other's most proven strength.

2

Sintes fought on March 28, 2026. Aljarouj has not had a decisive result since November 2024 — seventeen months since his last cage time, twenty-two since his last win. Activity is the model's quietest tiebreaker and it points red.

3

Model: Sintes 52% / Aljarouj 48%, conviction 3/10. Neither fighter has one row in the UFC database, so there is no rate line, no division rank and no round-by-round data anywhere on this page — the low conviction is the point, not a hedge.

100 Simulated Fights

Aljarouj KO/TKO — 26%Sintes Decision — 22%Sintes Submission — 20%Aljarouj Decision — 14%Sintes KO/TKO — 10%Aljarouj Submission — 8%

Each square = 1 simulated fight. Fabia Sintes gold · Michael Aljarouj orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

The durability ledger

Zero knockout losses in fourteen professional fights on one side, two on the other. Aljarouj's knockout path is the single largest bucket in the run at 26 of 100 — and it is aimed at the one thing that has never worked on Sintes.

Activity versus power

Five months since Sintes last fought, seventeen since Aljarouj did and twenty-two since he last won. In the branches where the first round is a feeling-out period rather than a firefight, the rust compounds and Sintes's 42 win-shares from decisions and submissions do the work.

The submission monopoly

Four submission wins to three, but the recency is one-sided: Sintes has tapped two men in the last sixteen months, both in a third round. His submission bucket is 20 of 100, against Aljarouj's 8.

No data on either man

Neither fighter has a single row in the UFC database. The model cannot rank them, cannot compute a rate line and cannot lean on round-by-round evidence — which caps conviction at 3 and pulls the split toward 50-50 from both directions.

Level of competition

The WOW roster and the Hexagone roster are not the UFC flyweight division. Neither man's streak has been tested against ranked opposition, and the one time either faced a genuinely elite flyweight — Aljarouj against Azat Maksum — he was stopped in the third.

Fight Scripts

0%
of simulations

The Right Hand

Aljarouj meets a grappling entry with the hook that ended Pedro Nobre in seventy seconds and the debut is over before the layoff can matter. The largest single bucket in the run, and the one that needs the least to go right.

Scripted outcomes for Fabia Sintes vs Michael Aljarouj — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Fabia Sintes win probability
0%
10%
22%
20%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Ten points. Three of eleven career wins by knockout and the most recent was ground-and-pound rather than a stand-up exchange — this is the top-position finish, not a puncher's chance.

  • His largest bucket, and the shape of four career wins. Fifteen minutes of pressure, fence work and control against a man who has fought once in seventeen months.

  • Twenty points, and the clearest separator on the page. Four submission wins, three of them rear-naked chokes, and two landed in a third round inside the last sixteen months.

Michael Aljarouj win probability
0%
26%
14%
8%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • The largest single bucket in the entire run. Seven of thirteen wins by knockout, a documented one-shot finish of Pedro Nobre at 1:10, and an opponent who has to close distance to do anything at all.

  • Fourteen points. Only three of his thirteen wins came on the cards, and winning a decision here means out-pointing a grappler for fifteen minutes on debut after seventeen months out.

  • Eight points. He has three career submission wins, but no round or technique is documented for any of them and his last three years have been entirely striking-first.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round
R1
Michael
R2
Fabia
R3
Fabia
29-28 Sintes
Aljarouj takes the fresh opening round, Sintes takes the grappling rounds
The most likely decision shape in the model
29-28 Aljarouj
The power banks the first two rounds before the late window opens
The mirror image, and nearly as frequent
30-27 Sintes
The layoff shows from the opening bell and the fight is a wrestling match throughout
Uncommon — it requires Aljarouj's power to never land once

Moneyline

Fabia Sintes
+103
Michael Aljarouj
-120

BetOnline moneyline shown above (Sep 4, 2026). Model fair prices and value notes below compare our analysis to the market where props exist — they are not alternate sportsbook lines.

Props: model vs market

PropOddsImplied %Model %FairEdgeVerdict
Best Value
Sintes by submission is the shape the analysis flags and the simulation supports: 20 of his 52 win-shares, against Aljarouj's 8, and the only method on the page where one fighter's recent record does something the other's simply does not. On the other side, Aljarouj by knockout at 26 is the largest single bucket in the run — so if the market prices this as a clear Sintes favourite on the strength of a seven-fight streak, the Frenchman's inside-the-distance side is where the model disagrees. The one bet this page will not support is anything requiring confidence: two debutants with no measured data is the definition of a market to watch rather than to attack.
Conviction
0
3/10

A true coin flip with a four-point lean. Two debutants, no measured data on either, and a split decided by recent grappling form and a calendar — which is exactly the kind of evidence that earns three out of ten and no more. Lean: Fabia Sintes.

What backs the lean

  • Four submission wins including two in a third round inside the last sixteen months — against a striker who has not been mat-tested in three years.

  • Zero knockout losses in fourteen professional fights, aimed squarely at the opponent's only real weapon.

  • Five months since his last fight against seventeen since Aljarouj's, and twenty-two since Aljarouj last won.

  • Four career decision wins mean the cards are a genuine second path, not a consolation.

What limits it

  • Aljarouj's 54% knockout rate and a documented one-shot finish at 1:10 — the single largest outcome bucket in the run at 26 of 100.

  • The only published reach in the fight is his, at 68 inches, plus an inch of height and three years.

  • Neither fighter has one row in the UFC database: no rate stats, no ranks, no round-by-round evidence anywhere on this page.

  • A French fighter in Paris on a first Octagon night, against a 32-year-old whose streak was built entirely on the Iberian regional circuit.

Final Assessment

This is the least measurable fight on the Paris card and the page says so on every chart. Two UFC debutants, zero rows between them in the database, and a model line built from method splits, finish timings and a calendar rather than from a single significant strike. Anyone offering you a confident read on this bout is reading something that does not exist.

What the evidence does support is a shape. Aljarouj finishes people early — 1:10, 1:41, a corner stoppage after the first — and 54% of his wins end with an opponent unable to continue. Sintes finishes people late, at 3:11 and 4:34 of a third round, and has never been knocked out in fourteen fights. The fight is a race between a right hand that has to land in the first ten minutes and a choke that historically arrives after them, complicated by the fact that one of these men last competed five months ago and the other seventeen.

The model takes Sintes at 52%, and the four points are the layoff and the grappling recency, nothing grander. Twenty of his 52 win-shares are submissions and twenty-two are decisions; twenty-six of Aljarouj's 48 are knockouts. Take the Spaniard by the thinnest available margin, expect the first five minutes to be the most dangerous of his career, and treat any conviction above three out of ten on a dual debut as a story rather than an analysis.

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