Nora Cornolle vs Klaudia Syguła – UFC Fight Night: Parnasse vs. Hooker Fight Analytics & Prediction

PRELIMS · WOMEN'S BANTAMWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Parnasse vs. Hooker

Nora Cornolle

9W4L

Muay Thai Clinch

…

Klaudia Syguła

8W2L

Volume Pressure

…

1.98 absorbed a minute against 7.27 thrown

Women's BantamweightAccor Arena, Paris, FranceSeptember 5, 2026Standard 30ft Octagon

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Efficiency against volume, with almost nothing else separating them. Klaudia Syguła lands 7.27 significant strikes per minute — 1st of 30 active women's bantamweights — and absorbs 5.50, which is 27th. Nora Cornolle lands 2.75, 25th, and absorbs 1.98, the 4th-stingiest figure in the division. One woman throws more than two and a half times as much; the other is more than twice as hard to hit cleanly, and their composites finish half a point apart at 52 to 51.5. The tiebreaker is on tape: Melissa Mullins was stopped by Cornolle in the second round, and stopped Syguła in the second round of her Octagon debut.

Nora Cornolle

Attribute

Klaudia Syguła

Age

5'7"

Height

5'8"

67"

Reach

+2" Syguła69"

N/A

Leg Reach

N/A

Not published

Stance

Orthodox

Not published

Team

Ankos MMA, Poland

Sep 2, 2023

Octagon Debut

Nov 9, 2024

60% standing · 39% clinch · 1% ground

Strike Position

93% standing · 4% clinch · 3% ground

Muay Thai, clinch attrition

Fighting Style

High-volume pressure striking

Nine years and two inches of reach separate them, both in the Pole's favour, and neither number is the interesting one. The interesting row is the last: 39% of Cornolle's 165 career significant strikes land in the clinch against 4% of Syguła's 113. Syguła is a distance kickboxer — 93% of her landed offence is standing, and 98.4% of her first-round output arrives at range. Cornolle is a Muay Thai fighter in the literal sense, and she has never landed more than 2 significant strikes on the ground in her Octagon career.

Venue Factor
Fifteen minutes and a French crowd. Cornolle is from Épinay-sur-Seine and fights in Paris; her average bout lasts 12:00 against Syguła's 10:40, and her output barely moves between the first round and the third (15.6 significant strikes to 14.7). Syguła's does: 31.0 in her opening rounds, 16.0 in her seconds, a 48% collapse. Three rounds is exactly long enough for that curve to matter, and short enough that Syguła's fast starts still bank a round.

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Nora Cornolle

Pro Record

9-3-0

UFC Record

3-2 across five bouts since 2023

Streak

Lost her last — unanimous decision to Karol Rosa (Aug 2, 2025)

Finish Rate

89% of her wins — 6 KO/TKO (67%) and 2 submissions (22%)

Avg Fight Time

12:00

Chin · Rarely hit — 1.98 absorbed per minute, 4th of 30SOS · Mid-tier UFCMuay Thai clinch striker

She arrived at 33 and won her first two: a unanimous decision over Joselyne Edwards in September 2023, then a second-round TKO of Melissa Mullins in which she landed 17 of 23 at 73% and scored the only knockdown of her Octagon career. What has followed is the pattern that defines her — she is almost never hurt, and she is not always busy enough to win the round. Jacqueline Cavalcanti out-threw her 154 attempts to 114 across three rounds and took a split; Karol Rosa simply held her down, controlling 4:53 in the second and 4:29 in the third while Cornolle landed 3 significant strikes in the last ten minutes. Between those two losses she submitted Hailey Cowan at UFC 314. At 2.75 significant strikes per minute she is 25th of 30 in output and 4th in absorption — the least-hit, least-busy profile in the division.

Klaudia Syguła

Pro Record

8-2-0

UFC Record

2-1 across three bouts since 2024

Streak

Two straight — decisions over Irina Alekseeva and Priscila Cachoeira

Finish Rate

43% of her wins — 2 KO/TKO (29%), 1 submission (14%), 4 decisions (57%)

Avg Fight Time

10:40

Chin · Stopped once — Melissa Mullins, R2 ground-and-poundSOS · BuildingHigh-volume pressure striker

Twenty-seven years old and two Octagon wins into a career that started badly. Her debut in November 2024 lasted until 1:20 of the second round: Melissa Mullins landed one takedown, controlled 1:04 and put 21 of 27 ground strikes on her before the stoppage. She has not been taken down for a meaningful period since, but she has not been tested there either — her takedown defence reads 40%, 27th of 30. What she did next is the case for her: 53 significant strikes landed at 62% in the opening round against Irina Alekseeva, a unanimous decision, then a second decision over Priscila Cachoeira in February 2026. At 7.27 significant strikes per minute she is 1st in the division. She also absorbs 5.50 per minute, which is 27th, and she has never scored a knockdown in the Octagon.

Nora Cornolle

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Knockdown Exchange

KD dealt vs absorbed

Klaudia Syguła

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Nora Cornollesignature weapons

Second-Round StoppageMelissa Mullins, R2 3:06 — 17 of 23 landed at 73% with the knockdown, the only KD in her UFC file. Both of her Octagon finishes came in the second round

×1

Clinch Attrition64 of her 165 career significant strikes land in the clinch (39%), rising to 43.2% of her third-round output — against Syguła's 5 of 113 (4%)

×0

Body & Leg WorkOnly 43.6% of her first-round strikes go to the head; 26.9% land on the body and 29.5% on the legs, and the body share rises to 37.2% in the second

×0

Klaudia Sygułasignature weapons

First-Round Volume31.0 significant strikes landed in her opening rounds at 58% accuracy, 98.4% of it at distance — 53 of 85 against Irina Alekseeva alone

×0

Regional TKO PowerYulia Kutsenko (R2) and Ana Lobzhanidze (R1), both from the analysis file's regional record. No Octagon finish and 0.00 knockdowns per 15 minutes

×2

Nora Cornolle

Joselyne Edwards

Submission — Rear-Naked Choke

RR2 (2:44)

UFC FN — Feb 21, 2026

Karol Rosa

Decision — Unanimous

RR3

UFC FN: Taira vs. Park — Aug 2, 2025

Hailey Cowan

Submission

RR2 (1:52)

UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes

Jacqueline Cavalcanti

Decision — Split

RR3

UFC FN: Moicano vs. Saint Denis

Melissa Mullins

KO/TKO

RR2 (3:06)

UFC FN: Allen vs. Curtis 2

Pattern

Three wins and two losses, and the losses share a shape. She has never been finished and never been knocked down in the Octagon; she has been out-worked. Cavalcanti threw 43 significant strikes at her in a single round and won a split; Rosa took her down and controlled her for 9:22 across the last two rounds. The wins share a shape too — she stopped Mullins in the second, submitted Cowan in the second, and out-pointed Edwards while landing 16 of 24 in the first. She wins when the fight stays a striking contest and she is allowed to work the clinch, and she loses when someone either out-volumes her or drags her down.

Klaudia Syguła

Priscila Cachoeira

Decision — Unanimous

RR3

UFC Fight Night — Feb 7, 2026

Irina Alekseeva

Decision — Unanimous

RR3

UFC FN: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. — Jun 21, 2025

Melissa Mullins

KO/TKO — Ground-and-pound

RR2 (1:20)

UFC FN: Magny vs. Prates — Nov 9, 2024

Yulia Kutsenko

KO/TKO

RR2

MMA GP — 2023 (regional)

Ana Lobzhanidze

KO/TKO

RR1

FEN 43 (regional)

Pattern

One stoppage loss and four straight wins, three of them since. The Mullins defeat is the outlier and the warning: taken down once, controlled for a minute, finished in 1:20. Everything since has been decision work at high volume. Note the sourcing — the Alekseeva win and the Mullins loss are database-verified, while the Cachoeira decision and the two regional TKOs (Kutsenko, Lobzhanidze) come from the analysis file rather than the February 2026 database snapshot. What no source shows is an Octagon finish: 0.00 knockdowns per 15 minutes and 0.00 submission attempts across three UFC fights.

Nora Cornolle

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Klaudia Syguła

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Critical Insight
The donuts are career-scoped and come straight from the database's published win-method fields — Cornolle's nine wins split 6 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 1 decision; Syguła's seven split 2 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 4 decisions (that snapshot predates the Cachoeira decision, which would push her to 5 of 8). The round bars below are Octagon-only, because round-level data exists only for UFC bouts: Cornolle's three UFC wins are two second-round finishes and a decision, Syguła's are both decisions. Eighty-nine per cent of Cornolle's career wins end early. Fifty-seven per cent of Syguła's go to the cards, and none of her UFC wins has ended any other way.

Common Opponents

Opponent	Nora	Klaudia
Melissa Mullins	W· KO/TKO R2 (3:06) — UFC FN: Allen vs. Curtis 2	L· KO/TKO R2 (1:20) — UFC FN: Magny vs. Prates
A genuine shared opponent and the single strongest data point on the page. Cornolle landed 17 of 23 at 73% in the second and dropped Mullins before the stoppage — her only Octagon knockdown. Nine months later Mullins took Syguła down once, controlled 1:04, landed 21 of 27 significant strikes on the ground and finished her at 1:20 of the second.
Karol Rosa (grappling proxy)	L· UD3 — controlled for 9:22 across two rounds	—(no shared bout)
The blueprint against Cornolle is wrestling, not volume. Rosa held her down for 4:53 in the second and 4:29 in the third, and Cornolle landed 3 significant strikes in the last ten minutes of the fight. Syguła lands 0.70 takedowns per 15 minutes at 20% accuracy — she is not built to run that plan.

0.0

Klaudiasmall sample

Half a point. The composites make this a genuine coin flip and the model's 54-46 lean is not built on them — it is built on the Mullins cross-reference, the knockdown gap (0.25 to 0.00) and a Paris crowd.

Metric	Nora	Klaudia
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	12:00	10:40
Pace Tier	Low volume — 2.75 SLpM (25th/30)	High volume — 7.27 SLpM (1st/30)small sample
R3/R1 OutputR3/R1 OutputThird-round output as % of first-round output. Above 100% = builds into the fight; below = fades.	94% (14.7 vs 15.6 sig)	61% (19.0 vs 31.0 sig)small sample
Slow Start %Slow Start %Share of fights where the fighter starts below their usual pace. 0% = fast starter every time.	Low — 15.6 sig in R1 at 64% accuracy	None — 31.0 sig in R1 at 58% accuracy
Champ RoundsChamp RoundsEvidence from rounds 4-5 — only fighters with five-round experience have data here.	N/A — 3-round bout	N/A — 3-round bout

Archetype Base Rate

Muay Thai Clinch Striker 54%46% High-Volume Pressure Striker

No archetype base-rate row for this pairing · No historical archetype win-rate is applied. The 54-46 line is the analysis file's own number, revised down from 57-43 after Syguła's volume was measured properly — the site model had assumed a wider efficiency gap than the striking data supports.

Nora CornolleKlaudia Syguła

Women's Bantamweight

· 30 fighters

Stat	Nora	Nora rank	Div avg	Klaudia rank	Klaudia
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	2.75	25/30	3.86	1/30elitesmall sample	7.27
Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise.	55%	5/30	47.8%	15/30small sample	48%
Str DefStr DefStriking Defense — share of opponents' significant strikes that do NOT land. Higher = harder to hit.	58%	9/30	54.5%	9/30small sample	58%
SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better.	1.98	4/30elite	3.46	27/30small sample	5.50
KD AvgKD AvgKnockdown Average — knockdowns scored per 15 minutes. The one-shot power indicator.	0.25	5/30	0.13	16/30small sample	0.00
Damage RatioDamage RatioStrikes landed vs absorbed, normalized. Above 1.15 (division avg) = you hurt more than you get hurt.	1.39	—	1.12	—	1.12
TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine.	0.25	25/30	1.39	21/30small sample	0.70
TD Acc	11%	27/30	39.3%	26/30small sample	20%
TD DefTD DefTakedown Defense — share of opponents' takedown attempts stuffed.	47%	26/30	67.7%	27/30small sample	40%
Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat.	0.25	14/30	0.35	19/30small sample	0.00
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	12:00	—	—	—	10:40

Statistical Verdict
Read the table as two mirrors. Cornolle is 25th in output and 4th in absorption; Syguła is 1st in output and 27th in absorption. They tie at 58% striking defence, 9th apiece. Where they agree is the floor: both sit in the bottom five of the division for takedown defence (47% and 40% against a 67.7% average) and both attempt fewer takedowns than almost anyone (0.25 and 0.70 against 1.39). Neither woman can wrestle and neither can stop it — which is precisely why this fight will be decided standing, and why the Mullins result on both records carries so much weight.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

⚠ R3: single-fight sample for Klaudia Syguła

Control Time per Round (sec)

Nora Cornolle

Her output dips hard in the middle: 15.6 significant strikes in the first, 8.6 in the second, 14.7 in the third. The second is the round she spends in a grappling exchange — 50 seconds of control, and the round Rosa held her for 4:53.
She does not head-hunt. Only 43.6% of her first-round strikes go to the head, falling to 31.8% by the third, while the leg share climbs to 34.1%.
Between 37% and 43% of her offence lands in the clinch in every single round, and her ground share never exceeds 4.7%. Her one Octagon knockdown came in the second round against Melissa Mullins.

Klaudia Syguła

Her opening rounds are the best five minutes either woman has on record: 31.0 significant strikes landed at 58% accuracy, including 53 of 85 against Irina Alekseeva.
Then it halves. 16.0 landed at 43% in the second, with zero control time in either of her second rounds — the round in which Melissa Mullins finished her.
Her one third round, against Alekseeva, is her only round with meaningful control (2:15) and her only ground offence (15.8%). It is also 68.4% head strikes, her highest head share of any round.

Critical Insight
Two opposite curves. Syguła front-loads everything — 31.0, 16.0, 19.0 — and the crash between her first and second rounds is 48%. Cornolle is nearly flat: 15.6, 8.6, 14.7, with the dip belonging to grappling rather than fatigue, and 94% of her first-round output still arriving in the third. Syguła's shape wins the opening round on the cards almost automatically. Cornolle's shape wins rounds two and three if she survives the opening five minutes without losing them by more than a hair.

Strike Targeting (career avg)

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Range Profile — where the minutes go

NoraKlaudia

59%Distance87%

39%Clinch8%

2%Ground5%

Share of significant-strike volume by range from UFC career data. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much

Open SpaceKlaudia owns it

7.27 SLpM against 2.75, a two-inch reach edge, and 98.4% of her first-round offence landed at distance

Pocket / ExchangesNora owns it

0.25 knockdowns per 15 min against 0.00, and 1.98 absorbed per minute against 5.50

ClinchNora owns it

39% of Cornolle's career strikes land in the clinch (64 of 165) against Syguła's 4% (5 of 113)

GroundEven

Bottom-five takedown defence for both (47% and 40%) and almost no ground offence either way (1% and 3%)

Path to Victory

Nora Cornolle

Survive the first five minutes inside a hair, then make it a clinch fight. She absorbs 1.98 significant strikes per minute — 4th of 30 — and her output holds at 94% of its first-round level into the third while Syguła's has already halved.

Why they win

The Mullins cross-reference

Cornolle stopped Melissa Mullins at 3:06 of the second with a knockdown. Mullins stopped Syguła at 1:20 of the second with 21 of 27 ground strikes. It is the only genuine shared line on either record.

She is barely hit

1.98 significant strikes absorbed per minute, 4th of 30 in the division, against Syguła's 5.50, which is 27th. Over fifteen minutes that is roughly 53 fewer strikes taken.

The only knockdown power in the fight

0.25 knockdowns per 15 minutes, 5th in the division, against 0.00. Six of her nine career wins (67%) ended by KO/TKO; Syguła has never dropped anyone in the Octagon.

A clinch nobody else in this fight has

39% of her career significant strikes land in the clinch against Syguła's 4%. That is the one range where the volume gap disappears and the reach disadvantage stops mattering.

She does not fade

14.7 significant strikes in her third rounds against 15.6 in her firsts — 94%. Her average fight lasts 12:00, and she has gone the distance four times in five Octagon bouts.

The gameplan

1
Give up the first round cheaply, not badly
Syguła lands 31.0 in her opening rounds. Losing it 10-9 is survivable; being visibly out-landed three to one is not, because that is how Cavalcanti won a split.
2
Tie her up
39% of Cornolle's career offence lands in the clinch against 4% of Syguła's. Every second spent there is a second Syguła's distance volume is not being counted.
3
Attack the frame
56.4% of her first-round strikes already land below the head and her body share rises to 37.2% in the second. Against a fighter whose output halves after five minutes, body work compounds.
4
Hunt the second round
Both of her Octagon finishes came in the second, and so did the stoppage Mullins scored on Syguła. It is the round where their curves cross.
5
Make her defend something
Syguła's takedown defence is 40%, 27th of 30, and Cornolle has two career submission wins. She does not need a wrestling game — she needs one trip off the clinch.

Path to Victory

Klaudia Syguła

Bank the first round and refuse to give it back. She lands 31.0 significant strikes in her opening rounds at 58% accuracy against a woman who lands 15.6, and a 10-9 in the bank makes fifteen minutes of volume a winning card.

Why they win

Nearly double the output

7.27 significant strikes per minute against 2.75 — 1st in the division against 25th. In a fight where neither woman can wrestle, the count is what judges score.

The best round on either record

31.0 significant strikes landed in her opening rounds at 58% accuracy. Cornolle's best first round was 24 of 37 against Karol Rosa, and Syguła landed 53 in one round against Alekseeva.

Nine years and two inches

27 against 36, 69" of reach against 67". Cornolle turns 37 in December and has fought five times in three years.

Cornolle has already lost this fight once

Jacqueline Cavalcanti out-threw her — 43 significant strikes landed in a single round — and took a split decision. Volume is the proven blueprint, and Syguła has more of it.

The quiet second round

Cornolle lands 8.6 significant strikes in her second rounds, the lowest number on the page. If Syguła is still upright at the ten-minute mark, that round is there to be taken.

The gameplan

1
Start fast and stay long
The published plan is pressure volume. 98.4% of her first-round offence lands at distance with a two-inch reach edge — the fight should never be closer than a jab.
2
Refuse the clinch
5 of her 113 career significant strikes have landed in the clinch. Every tie-up is a round Cornolle is scoring and Syguła is not.
3
Fix the second round
16.0 landed at 43% is the weakest five minutes on her record, and it is the round Mullins finished her in. The fight is won or lost between minute five and minute ten.
4
Respect the second-round stoppage
Cornolle has 0.25 knockdowns per 15 minutes, 5th in the division, and finished Mullins at 3:06 of the second. Volume plans do not require standing in front of anyone.
5
Bank rounds, do not chase the finish
32 of her 46 win-shares are decisions and she has never finished anyone in the Octagon. Her win is a card, not a highlight.

Danger Zone

How Nora Cornolle loses

She loses the first on volume, spends the second at 8.6 significant strikes, and needs a finish in the third she has never produced there — all three of her Octagon third rounds ended on the cards.
A 36-year-old Muay Thai fighter with 47% takedown defence gets held down. Rosa did it for 9:22 and Cornolle managed 3 significant strikes in the last ten minutes.
She never gets the clinch. Syguła lands 98.4% of her first-round offence at distance and has a two-inch reach edge to keep it there.

Danger Zone

How Klaudia Syguła loses

The Mullins pattern repeats in a different form. She has been stopped in a second round before, and Cornolle's only Octagon knockdown came in a second round.
Her volume halves as it always has — 31.0 to 16.0 — and the two rounds she needed are gone before she notices.
40% takedown defence, 27th of 30, against a fighter who has two submission wins and finished Hailey Cowan in the second at UFC 314. One trip in a clinch exchange is enough.

The fight's central axis

Volume Against Absorption

Klaudia Syguła lands 7.27 significant strikes per minute, 1st of 30 active women's bantamweights, and absorbs 5.50, which is 27th. Nora Cornolle lands 2.75, 25th, and absorbs 1.98, which is 4th. Over fifteen minutes the raw arithmetic is roughly 109 landed against 41 — but only if Cornolle's 58% striking defence behaves like everybody else's, and it has not so far.

1.98

Cornolle SApM — 4th of 30, against Syguła's 5.50

The only real shared evidence

Melissa Mullins Fought Them Both

Cornolle stopped Mullins at 3:06 of the second, landing 17 of 23 at 73% with a knockdown. Nine months later Mullins took Syguła down once, controlled 1:04 and landed 21 of 27 ground strikes to finish her at 1:20 of the second. It is the strongest single data point in a fight where the composites finish half a point apart.

the round in which both Mullins fights ended

The round-by-round correction

Two Opposite Curves

Syguła's output goes 31.0, 16.0, 19.0 — a 48% collapse between the first round and the second. Cornolle's goes 15.6, 8.6, 14.7, and her third round is 94% of her first. Syguła wins the opening five minutes on almost any card; Cornolle is the only one of the two whose fifteenth minute looks like her first.

Where the floor is

Neither Woman Can Wrestle

Cornolle defends 47% of takedowns (26th of 30), Syguła 40% (27th), against a divisional average of 67.7%. They attempt 0.25 and 0.70 per fifteen minutes against an average of 1.39. Both are wide open to a grappler and neither is one — so the fight stays where both of them want it, which is the rarest thing on a fight card.

The honest caveat

Two Octagon Fights of Evidence

Every Syguła number here comes from two database-recorded UFC bouts and 113 landed significant strikes. The analysis file's separate UFCStats pass reads her volume higher still (7.27 per minute) and her absorption worse (5.50). Both readings agree on direction; the size of the gap is a sample-size argument, and it is why conviction is 3 out of 10.

The Five-Round Clock

Nora Cornolle danger windowKlaudia Syguła danger windowNeutral / contested

R1 · 0:00–5:00Syguła's round

31.0 significant strikes landed at 58% accuracy in her opening rounds, 98.4% of it at distance, against Cornolle's 15.6. On volume alone this is close to a free 10-9.

Critical Insight
The clock runs against the younger woman. Syguła almost certainly banks the first and almost certainly gives back some of it in the second, where her output has halved in both Octagon fights and where Cornolle has finished twice. Three rounds gives Cornolle exactly enough time to turn a 10-9 deficit into a 29-28 — and gives Syguła exactly enough time to run out of the volume that put her ahead.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things

Klaudia Syguła lands 7.27 significant strikes per minute (1st of 30) and absorbs 5.50 (27th). Nora Cornolle lands 2.75 (25th) and absorbs 1.98 (4th). Their overall composites finish half a point apart, at 52 to 51.5.

Melissa Mullins is a genuine shared opponent and the strongest evidence on the page: Cornolle stopped her at 3:06 of the second; Mullins stopped Syguła at 1:20 of the second.

Model: Cornolle 54% / Syguła 46%, conviction 3/10 — revised down from 57-43 once Syguła's volume was measured. The analysis calls Syguła by decision (32 of 100 simulations, the single largest bucket) the live dog.

100 Simulated Fights

Syguła Decision — 32%Cornolle Decision — 25%Cornolle KO/TKO — 22%Syguła KO/TKO — 10%Cornolle Submission — 7%Syguła Submission — 4%

Each square = 1 simulated fight. Nora Cornolle gold · Klaudia Syguła orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

The Mullins cross-reference

The only shared opponent on the page, and it points one way: Cornolle finished her in the second, Mullins finished Syguła in the second. It is worth more than any composite here because the composites are half a point apart.

The volume gap

7.27 significant strikes a minute against 2.75. Syguła's decision bucket at 32 is the single largest outcome in the simulation for exactly this reason — count wins rounds when nothing else separates two fighters.

The absorption gap

1.98 absorbed per minute against 5.50 — 4th in the division against 27th. Damage is what breaks ties on close cards, and this is the widest measured column in the fight.

Knockdown asymmetry

0.25 per 15 minutes against 0.00. Cornolle's 22-point knockout bucket is built on the only demonstrated stopping power in the matchup; Syguła has never dropped an opponent in the Octagon.

Sample size and age

Syguła has two database-recorded Octagon bouts and is nine years younger. Cornolle has five and turns 37 in December. Both of those cut against the favourite, and both are why conviction stops at 3 out of 10.

Fight Scripts

of simulations

Volume Over Fifteen

Syguła lands 31 in the first, keeps the fight at range with two inches of reach, and never lets it become a clinch fight. Cornolle is harder to hurt but never busy enough, and the cards read the way Cavalcanti's split did. The single largest bucket in the simulation.

Scripted outcomes for Nora Cornolle vs Klaudia Syguła — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Nora Cornolle win probability

22%

25%

KO/TKODECSUB

22 points. Six of her nine career wins (67%) ended by KO/TKO, she carries 0.25 knockdowns per 15 minutes (5th of 30), and she stopped Melissa Mullins at 3:06 of the second — the same woman who stopped Syguła in a second round.
Her largest bucket. 1.98 absorbed per minute against 5.50 is the sort of gap that wins close rounds on damage even while losing them on count, and her third-round output holds at 94% of her first.
Seven points, and not a throwaway. She has two career submission wins (22%), including Hailey Cowan at 1:52 of the second at UFC 314, against a fighter who defends 40% of takedowns — 27th of 30.

Klaudia Syguła win probability

10%

32%

KO/TKODECSUB

Ten points, the smallest bucket on the page, and the record explains it: 0.00 knockdowns per 15 minutes and no Octagon finish across three UFC fights. Her two career TKOs are regional, against Kutsenko and Lobzhanidze.
The single largest outcome in the simulation. 7.27 significant strikes a minute — 4th in the division — is the one number that wins her fifteen minutes, and both of her UFC wins have come exactly this way.
Four points. 0.00 submission attempts per 15 minutes and one career submission win, none in the Octagon. These are scramble outcomes, not a hunted path.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round

Klaudia

Nora

29-28 Cornolle

Syguła banks the first on volume, Cornolle takes the last two on damage

The most likely card in a fight that reaches them

29-28 Syguła

The first-round output holds up and the busier woman wins the argument

The live dog's route — the analysis flags it as the value side

30-27 Syguła

The clinch never happens and 7.27 a minute runs unopposed

Possible if the reach keeps it at distance for fifteen minutes

Moneyline

Nora Cornolle

-123

Klaudia Syguła

+105

BetOnline moneyline shown above (Sep 4, 2026). Model fair prices and value notes below compare our analysis to the market where props exist — they are not alternate sportsbook lines.

Props: model vs market

Prop	Odds	Implied %	Model %	Fair	Edge	Verdict

Best Value
Syguła by decision is the side the analysis flags and the simulation agrees: 32 of her 46 win-shares and the largest single bucket on the page. If the market prices Cornolle as a clear favourite on home soil, the Pole's distance side is where the model disagrees most — a 27-year-old who lands 7.27 significant strikes a minute against a 36-year-old who lands 2.75 should not be a big underdog on the cards.

Conviction

3/10

A genuine coin flip with a thumb on the scale. The composites finish half a point apart at 52 to 51.5, and the lean comes almost entirely from the Mullins cross-reference, the knockdown gap and a Paris crowd — which is exactly a three-out-of-ten position. Lean: Nora Cornolle.

What backs the lean

Melissa Mullins was stopped by Cornolle in the second and stopped Syguła in the second — the only shared opponent on either record.
1.98 significant strikes absorbed per minute, 4th of 30, against Syguła's 5.50, which is 27th.
0.25 knockdowns per 15 minutes against 0.00, and 67% of her career wins by KO/TKO against 29%.
39% of her career offence lands in the clinch against Syguła's 4% — the one range where the volume gap disappears.

What limits it

Syguła lands more than two and a half times as much: 7.27 significant strikes a minute (1st of 30) against 2.75 (25th), and count is what judges score.
Cornolle has already lost this exact fight — Jacqueline Cavalcanti out-threw her and took a split decision.
Nine years and two inches the wrong way, with Cornolle turning 37 in December.
Every Syguła figure comes from two database-recorded Octagon bouts; the analysis file's UFCStats pass reads her volume even higher, at 7.27 per minute.

Final Assessment

This is the closest fight on the Paris prelims by measurement and the model says so: 54-46, conviction 3 out of 10, with overall composites of 52 and 51.5. Klaudia Syguła throws more than two and a half times as much and Nora Cornolle is more than twice as hard to hit cleanly, and there is no third column to break the tie — both women sit in the bottom five of the division for takedown defence and neither attempts takedowns, so the fight will be settled standing over fifteen minutes.

What tilts it is a name on both records. Melissa Mullins was knocked out by Cornolle at 3:06 of the second round, having been dropped in an exchange Cornolle won 17 of 23 at 73%. Nine months later, the same Mullins took Syguła down once, controlled her for 1:04 and put 21 of 27 significant strikes on her from the top before the referee stepped in at 1:20 of the second. That is not a proof, but it is the only piece of direct evidence in a fight where every composite is a rounding error.

The honest read: Syguła should win the first round, probably comfortably, and the fight is decided by what happens in the second — the round where her output has halved in both Octagon appearances, the round where both of Cornolle's UFC finishes came, and the round Mullins needed to end her debut. Take Cornolle at a shade over even money if the market offers it, and take Syguła by decision if it does not, because 32 of 100 is the largest number on this page.

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