Oumar Sy vs Modestas Bukauskas – UFC Fight Night: Parnasse vs. Hooker Fight Analytics & Prediction

MAIN CARD · LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Parnasse vs. Hooker

Oumar Sy

12W2L

Wrestling Pressure

…

Modestas Bukauskas

“The Baltic Gladiator”

20W7L

Counter Kickboxer

…

Seven inches of reach and a home crowd vs. eleven knockouts

Light HeavyweightAccor Arena, Paris, FranceSeptember 5, 2026Standard 30ft Octagon

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

A Parisian fighting in Paris with an 83-inch reach — seven inches longer than the man across from him — and still-elite defensive striking numbers on the UFCStats line: 66% striking defence and 1.87 strikes absorbed per minute. Modestas Bukauskas has none of that and one thing Oumar Sy does not: eleven career knockouts and a counter right hand that has ended Paul Craig and Rafael Cerqueira inside a round. Sy's job is to make this a wrestling match at range. Bukauskas's job is to make it a kickboxing match for fifteen minutes, and hit him once. The caveat on Sy: he enters off a first-round guillotine loss to Ion Cutelaba (Mar 2026), so the old 100% takedown-defence story is gone.

Oumar Sy

Attribute

Modestas Bukauskas

Age

6'4"

Height

6'3"

83"+7" Sy

Reach

76"

45"

Leg Reach

42"

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

Paris-based

Team

Gintas Combat / BST Academy

May 18, 2024

Octagon Debut

Jul 15, 2020

Wrestling pressure, front chokes

Fighting Style

Counter kickboxing

Seven inches of reach is an enormous separation at light heavyweight, and Sy pairs it with three inches more leg reach and an inch of height. Bukauskas is the shorter, thicker fighter who has to walk into range to do anything at all — and the man he is walking at absorbs 1.72 significant strikes per minute, the second-lowest figure among 39 active light heavyweights. The one physical column that favours the Lithuanian is not on this table: six years and twelve Octagon fights of experience against Sy's four.

Venue Factor
This is a home fight in every sense — Sy is from Paris and the Accor Arena crowd will be his. In a bout the model expects to be close and to reach the scorecards (28 of Sy's 55 win-shares are decisions), that matters at the margin. Three rounds also helps him: Bukauskas's route requires landing a clean counter, and fifteen minutes gives him fewer chances than twenty-five would.

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Oumar Sy

Pro Record

12-2-0

UFC Record

3-2

Streak

Coming off R1 guillotine loss to Ion Cutelaba (Mar 2026)

Finish Rate

75% (5 KO + 4 Sub of 12 wins)

Avg Fight Time

9:36

Chin · IronSOS · BuildingWrestling Pressure · Submission Threat

Still one of the more interesting European light heavyweights on the numbers — 66% striking defence, 1.87 SApM, 2.45 takedowns per fifteen — but the ceiling story cracked in March 2026 when Ion Cutelaba walked him into a first-round guillotine. Before that: Tokkos by RNC, Jung by decision, Ribeiro by first-round TKO, and the Menifield decision loss that already showed a pressure veteran could ignore the reach. Bukauskas studies both blueprints: walk forward, and threaten the neck when Sy shoots.

Modestas Bukauskas

Pro Record

20-7-0

UFC Record

8-5 across recent UFC stint

Streak

Won last — split decision over Christian Edwards (May 2026)

Finish Rate

~67% (11 KO + 3 Sub of 21 wins)

Avg Fight Time

10:04

Chin · AverageSOS · EliteCounter Striker

Six-plus years of light heavyweight attrition with a bounce-back already banked: after Nikita Krylov stopped him in the third at UFC 324, he took a split decision over Christian Edwards in May 2026. The good version remains real — Craig, Cutelaba, Cerqueira, Prachnio — and the bad version is why he is still a live dog: Krylov, Petrino, Rountree and Crute all finished him. The chin is graded Average; the counter right hand is why this fight stays dangerous for Sy.

Oumar Sy

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Knockdown Exchange

KD dealt vs absorbed

Modestas Bukauskas

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Oumar Sysignature weapons

Front Chokes / Rear-Naked4 career submissions — latest: Tuco Tokkos, R1 3:43. Database archetype: Front-Choke Specialist

×4

Ground-and-Pound TKO5 KO/TKO — 126 seconds of first-round control feeding a 23.2% ground strike share

×5

Modestas Bukauskassignature weapons

Counter Right Hand11 career KO/TKO — Paul Craig (R1) and Rafael Cerqueira (R1 2:12) are the recent proof

×11

Submissions3 career subs — including Marcin Prachnio, R3 3:12 at UFC 304

×3

Oumar Sy

Ion Cutelaba

Submission — Guillotine

RR1 (4:24)

UFC FN: Emmett vs. Vallejos — Mar 14, 2026

Brendson Ribeiro

KO/TKO

RR1 (4:42)

UFC FN: Imavov vs. Borralho

Alonzo Menifield

Decision — Unanimous

RR3

UFC FN: Usman vs. Buckley

Da Woon Jung

Decision — Unanimous

RR3

UFC FN: Moicano vs. Saint Denis

Tuco Tokkos

Submission

RR1 (3:43)

UFC FN: Barboza vs. Murphy

Pattern

Three UFC wins and two losses: Tokkos by RNC, Jung by decision, Ribeiro by first-round TKO, then Menifield out-worked him and Cutelaba choked him in Round 1. The 100% takedown-defence era is over — he is still the longer, cleaner athlete on paper, but Paris is a rebound night, not a coronation.

Modestas Bukauskas

Christian Edwards

Decision — Split

RR3

UFC FN: Allen vs. Costa — May 16, 2026

Nikita Krylov

KO/TKO

RR3 (4:57)

UFC 324 — Jan 24, 2026

Paul Craig

KO/TKO

RR1

UFC FN: Imavov vs. Borralho

Ion Cutelaba

Decision — Split

RR3

UFC 315

Rafael Cerqueira

KO/TKO

RR1 (2:12)

UFC FN: Cejudo vs. Song

Pattern

Krylov stopped him in January; Edwards gave him the bounce-back in May. The cycle is familiar: middle-tier momentum, then a power check. Craig and Cerqueira prove the counter still ends nights; Krylov/Petrino/Rountree prove he cannot afford to be hit clean. He arrives on a win, at 32, against a man who just got submitted.

Oumar Sy

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Modestas Bukauskas

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Critical Insight
Sy's finishes are split evenly between strikes and chokes — five and four — which is the profile of a fighter who takes you down and takes whatever the position offers. Bukauskas's are 58% knockouts, and all three of his UFC first-round wins came by strikes. The round bars count UFC wins only (Sy 3, Bukauskas 7 across twelve bouts, four of them itemised here); neither man's regional round data is published in full.

Common Opponents

Opponent	Oumar	Modestas
Alonzo Menifield (style proxy)	L· UD3 (2025)	—(blueprint for Bukauskas)
The only man to beat Sy did it by refusing to fight at range — the exact plan Bukauskas needs
Nikita Krylov (style proxy)	—(blueprint for Sy)	L· TKO R3 (2026)
Big, long, physically imposing light heavyweights have finished Bukauskas four times

0.0

Modestas

A four-and-a-half point composite gap that the outcome model converts into 55-45. The compression is deliberate: composites cannot price eleven knockouts landing on an Average chin's opponent.

Metric	Oumar	Modestas
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	9:36	9:40
Pace Tier	Low volume — 3.67 SLpM (25th/39)	Low volume — 3.24 SLpM (29th/39)
R3/R1 OutputR3/R1 OutputThird-round output as % of first-round output. Above 100% = builds into the fight; below = fades.	132% (18.5 vs 14.0 sig)	113% (16.0 vs 14.1 sig)
Slow Start %Slow Start %Share of fights where the fighter starts below their usual pace. 0% = fast starter every time.	Low — 126s of R1 control	Low — 14.1 sig in R1
Champ RoundsChamp RoundsEvidence from rounds 4-5 — only fighters with five-round experience have data here.	N/A — 3-round bout	N/A — 3-round bout

Archetype Base Rate

Wrestling Pressure 55%45% Counter Striker

No archetype base-rate row for this pairing · No historical archetype win-rate is applied here — the database has no matchup row for this pairing. The 55-45 lean matches the site model and comes from reach, defensive rates and takedown offence against a fighter with almost none.

Oumar SyModestas Bukauskas

Light Heavyweight

· 39 fighters

Stat	Oumar	Oumar rank	Div avg	Modestas rank	Modestas
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	3.41	25/39small sample	~5.09	29/39	3.14
Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise.	48%	19/39small sample	~50.2%	24/39	43%
Str DefStr DefStriking Defense — share of opponents' significant strikes that do NOT land. Higher = harder to hit.	66%	4/39elitesmall sample	~50.9%	17/39	51%
SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better.	1.87	3/39elitesmall sample	~3.90	28/39	3.86
KD AvgKD AvgKnockdown Average — knockdowns scored per 15 minutes. The one-shot power indicator.	0.00	32/39	~2.83	31/39	0.11
Damage RatioDamage RatioStrikes landed vs absorbed, normalized. Above 1.15 (division avg) = you hurt more than you get hurt.	1.82	—	~1.31	—	0.81
TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine.	2.45	7/39small sample	~1.04	26/39	0.23
TD DefTD DefTakedown Defense — share of opponents' takedown attempts stuffed.	66%	22/39small sample	~72.8%	10/39	82%
Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat.	0.30	14/39	~0.42	18/39	0.11
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	9:36	—	—	—	10:04

Statistical Verdict
Sy still owns the volume-defence edge — 66% striking defence and 1.87 SApM — but the old 100% takedown-defence story is dead after Cutelaba. Bukauskas now leads TDDef (82%) and brings the only knockdown equity on the page. The fight is reach and wrestling versus counters, not an untouchable prospect versus a fading veteran.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

Control Time per Round (sec)

Oumar Sy

126 seconds of control in the opening round and 129 in the second — he takes the fight to the mat early and stays there.
A third of his first-round strikes go to the legs (33.9%), the highest leg share in this matchup: he chops at range before closing.
By the third round his offence is 97.3% at distance and his control drops to 46 seconds — the wrestling is front-loaded, the boxing is not.

Modestas Bukauskas

Twelve first rounds of data at 14.1 significant strikes and 42% accuracy, with 86.4% of it landing at range — a pure kickboxer's distribution.
His head share climbs every round (67.5% → 75.5% → 82.3%): the longer it goes, the more single-mindedly he hunts the knockout.
Almost no control time and almost nothing on the ground — 7.7% of his R1 output and 2.1% by the third. He does not fight there and does not want to.

Critical Insight
The two round profiles describe the same fifteen minutes from opposite ends. Sy front-loads: two minutes of control per round early, then boxes at range late. Bukauskas does one thing for the whole fight — 83-90% of his offence at distance, head share rising every round. The fight is decided in the first ten minutes, when Sy's control minutes meet Bukauskas's 79% takedown defence.

Strike Targeting (career avg)

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Range Profile — where the minutes go

OumarModestas

84%Distance87%

8%Clinch9%

8%Ground4%

Share of significant-strike volume by range from UFC career data. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much

Open SpaceOumar owns it

83" reach against 76", plus 70% striking defence and 1.72 absorbed per minute (both 2nd/39)

Pocket / ExchangesModestas owns it

Eleven career knockouts and a proven first-round right hand against a fighter with a 0.00 knockdown average

ClinchOumar owns it

Body-lock entries feeding 126s of R1 control; Bukauskas logs 11 seconds of control in the same round

GroundOumar owns it

Four career submissions and 100% takedown defence against 0.26 takedowns per 15 min and 2.1% of R3 offence on the mat

Path to Victory

Oumar Sy

Jab behind seven inches of reach, level change to the body lock, and ride. He does not need a finish — he needs two rounds of control against a man who takes people down 0.26 times per fifteen minutes.

Why they win

Seven inches of reach

83" against 76", plus three inches of leg reach. Against a counter striker who must close to work, that is the whole geometry of the fight.

The best defensive numbers in the division

70% striking defence and 1.72 strikes absorbed per minute — both 2nd of 39 active light heavyweights. Damage ratio 2.13 to 0.80.

A wrestling monopoly

2.73 takedowns per fifteen minutes (6th) against 0.26 (26th). Bukauskas has almost no offensive wrestling to answer with.

Fighting at home

A Parisian in the Accor Arena, in a fight the model expects to reach the scorecards more often than not.

The chin grades apart

Iron against Average — and Bukauskas has been finished by strikes four times, most recently by Krylov in January.

The gameplan

1
Jab, then level change
The analysis puts it exactly this way: work behind the reach and change levels into the body lock. Do not stand and trade in kickboxing range.
2
Chop the legs early
33.9% of his first-round strikes already go to the legs. Against a counter striker who needs to step in, taking the lead leg removes the entry.
3
Ride, don't hunt
Two minutes of control per round wins this on the cards. The submission is a bonus; the position is the point.
4
Respect the right hand for five minutes
Craig and Cerqueira were both gone inside a round. Survive the first exchange window and Bukauskas's finishing rate drops sharply.
5
Use the crowd late
If it is close entering the third, output in front of a Paris crowd is worth more on the cards than it is on paper.

Path to Victory

Modestas Bukauskas

One counter right hand. Eleven career knockouts, and Sy's knockdown-absorbed column is empty only because nobody with this power has caught him yet.

Why they win

Eleven knockouts

58% of his wins end by strikes, including first-round finishes of Paul Craig and Rafael Cerqueira. Sy has a 0.00 knockdown average — he has never had to prove his chin against this.

79% takedown defence

He is not a free ride. Sy will have to earn every second of control, and failed entries against a counter striker are how knockouts happen.

Twelve Octagon fights to four

Six years of elite light heavyweight opposition — Craig, Cutelaba, Rountree, Krylov, Pedro — against a prospect with one loss and no five-round nights.

The Menifield blueprint exists

The only man to beat Sy did it by closing distance and refusing to let the reach matter. It is a proven, published plan.

He gets stronger as it goes

Output rises to 16.0 in the third and his head share climbs to 82.3%. If Sy's wrestling is front-loaded, the last five minutes belong to the kickboxer.

The gameplan

1
Teep the lead leg, counter the two
The published plan: keep him at the end of a front kick and make him pay for entries with the right hand.
2
Sprawl and fire
79% takedown defence is his best asset. Every stuffed shot is a free counter against a man who has never been dropped — because nobody has landed.
3
Make it a mid-range fight
Not the pocket, not the outside. At mid-range the seven-inch reach is neutralised and his own 86.4% at-distance share works.
4
Copy Menifield
The one loss on Sy's record came from a pressure veteran who refused to fight at long range. That fight is on tape and it is the map.
5
Bank the third
His output rises to 16.0 in the third while Sy's control drops to 46 seconds. If it is level after ten minutes, the last round is his to take.

Danger Zone

How Oumar Sy loses

He walks onto the counter right hand that ended Craig and Cerqueira — his 0.00 knockdown-absorbed line has never been tested by a puncher of this grade.
The takedowns bounce off 79% defence, the fight becomes a mid-range kickboxing match, and Bukauskas's twelve fights of experience out-read his four.
A repeat of the Menifield night: a shorter, heavier man makes it ugly, and the reach never gets to matter in front of a home crowd expecting a show.

Danger Zone

How Modestas Bukauskas loses

He spends fifteen minutes at the end of an 83-inch jab, never lands clean, and loses three rounds to control time he cannot reverse.
The first body lock arrives in round one and he is on his back against a Front-Choke Specialist with four career submissions.
The Average chin shows up again — five finishes against him already, and Sy scores 23.2% of his first-round offence as ground strikes from top position.

The fight's central axis

Nobody Hits Him

Oumar Sy absorbs 1.72 significant strikes per minute and blocks 70% of what comes at him — both second of 39 active light heavyweights, against a divisional average of 3.90 and 50.9%. His damage ratio is 2.13 to Bukauskas's 0.80. That is the most lopsided defensive comparison on the Paris card.

2.13

Sy damage ratio vs 0.80 — strikes landed per strike absorbed

The dog's case, and its cost

Eleven Knockouts and an Average Chin

Bukauskas has finished eleven men with strikes and been finished by strikes four times. He is simultaneously the only fighter here who can end it in one exchange and the only one who can be ended the same way.

Bukauskas career KO/TKO wins · 4 KO losses

Where the rounds get scored

A Wrestling Monopoly

2.73 takedowns per fifteen minutes against 0.26. Sy controls 126 and 129 seconds in the first two rounds; Bukauskas manages 11 and 30. Nobody wins a round on the cards for defending well.

The one time it did not work

The Menifield Exception

Alonzo Menifield is the only man to beat Sy, and he did it by refusing to fight at range for fifteen minutes. Bukauskas has watched that tape, and unlike Menifield he punches hard enough to make the pocket dangerous.

Two different fifteen minutes

Front-Loaded vs Back-Loaded

Sy's control time collapses from 126 seconds in round one to 46 in round three while his offence becomes 97.3% at distance. Bukauskas's output rises every round and his head share climbs from 67.5% to 82.3%. The longer it goes, the more it becomes the kickboxer's fight.

The Five-Round Clock

Oumar Sy danger windowModestas Bukauskas danger windowNeutral / contested

R1 · 0:00–5:00Sy's wrestling window

126 seconds of control per opening round and a first-round submission of Tokkos plus a first-round TKO of Ribeiro. He wants this fight on the mat before Bukauskas has found the counter.

Critical Insight
The fight is a race between Sy's front-loaded wrestling and Bukauskas's back-loaded striking. If the Frenchman banks the first two rounds on control, the third is survivable. If the takedowns bounce off that 79% defence early, he is standing in front of eleven knockouts with his own control game already spent.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things

Oumar Sy has the two best defensive striking numbers in the light heavyweight division — 70% defence and 1.72 strikes absorbed per minute, both 2nd of 39 — and seven inches of reach on a man who has to walk in to work.

Modestas Bukauskas has eleven career knockouts and 79% takedown defence. He is not a free ride and he only needs one clean counter; Sy's knockdown-absorbed column is empty because nobody with this power has caught him.

Model: Sy 55% / Bukauskas 45%, conviction 4/10. The live dog play is Bukauskas by knockout — 22 of his 45 win-shares, and the largest single finishing bucket in the run.

100 Simulated Fights

Sy Decision — 28%Sy KO/TKO — 16%Sy Submission — 11%Bukauskas KO/TKO — 22%Bukauskas Decision — 18%Bukauskas Submission — 5%

Each square = 1 simulated fight. Oumar Sy gold · Modestas Bukauskas orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Reach and defensive rates

Seven inches, 70% striking defence, 1.72 absorbed per minute. In the simulations where the fight is contested at range, Sy's decision bucket (28 of 100) is the single largest outcome in the run.

The takedown battle

2.73 attempts per fifteen minutes into 79% defence. This is the pivot: successful entries produce Sy's 11 submission win-shares and most of his 16 knockouts; failed ones hand Bukauskas his counters.

One clean right hand

Twenty-two of Bukauskas's 45 win-shares are knockouts — the second-largest bucket on the page. Craig and Cerqueira both left in the first round.

The chin grades

Iron against Average. Sy has never been dropped; Bukauskas has been finished by strikes four times, most recently in January. That asymmetry is most of the model's 10-point edge.

Home cage

A Paris fighter in Paris, in a bout where 46 of 100 simulations reach the scorecards. Worth a point or two at the margin, and the model treats it as exactly that.

Fight Scripts

of simulations

The Long Grind

Sy jabs from 83 inches, changes levels behind it, and banks two rounds of control against a kickboxer with no wrestling of his own. A comfortable, unspectacular decision in front of a home crowd.

Scripted outcomes for Oumar Sy vs Modestas Bukauskas — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Oumar Sy win probability

16%

28%

11%

KO/TKODECSUB

Five career knockouts, most of them from top position — 23.2% of his first-round offence is ground strikes, and Bukauskas has been stopped by strikes four times.
The largest bucket in the run. Two rounds of control against a fighter who logs 11 seconds of his own is a decision that does not require any risk.
Four career submissions and the database's Front-Choke Specialist tag. If the body lock lands early, this is the fastest ending on the page.

Modestas Bukauskas win probability

22%

18%

KO/TKODECSUB

The dog's whole case: eleven career knockouts, first-round finishes of Craig and Cerqueira, against a chin nobody has tested with real power.
Requires stuffing the wrestling for fifteen minutes at 79% defence and out-landing a man who absorbs 1.72 per minute. Possible, and unlikely.
Three career submissions, none of them recent, against a fighter with 100% takedown defence. The thinnest bucket on the page.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round

Oumar

Modestas

29-28 Sy

Two rounds of control, then the kickboxer takes the third

The most common decision shape in the model

30-27 Sy

The takedowns land all night and the reach never lets him in

Common when the first entry succeeds

29-28 Bukauskas

Stuffed shots and a mid-range kickboxing match

The dog's realistic path to the cards

Moneyline

Oumar Sy

-230

Modestas Bukauskas

+193

BetOnline moneyline shown above (Sep 4, 2026). Model fair prices and value notes below compare our analysis to the market where props exist — they are not alternate sportsbook lines.

Props: model vs market

Prop	Odds	Implied %	Model %	Fair	Edge	Verdict

Best Value
The analysis names it and the simulation agrees: Bukauskas by knockout is the live dog play at 22%, larger than either of Sy's finishing paths and second only to the Sy decision bucket. If the market prices this as a comfortable prospect showcase, the inside-the-distance side of the underdog is where the disagreement sits.

Conviction

4/10

Every measurable column belongs to the Frenchman, and the underdog still has a 22% knockout path. That combination is what a 4/10 looks like. Lean: Oumar Sy.

What backs the lean

Seven inches of reach and three inches of leg reach against a fighter who must close to work.
70% striking defence and 1.72 strikes absorbed per minute — both 2nd of 39 — with a 2.13 damage ratio.
2.73 takedowns per fifteen minutes against 0.26, and 100% takedown defence against a man who barely shoots.
Iron chin against Average, and Bukauskas has been finished by strikes four times.

What limits it

Eleven career knockouts on the other side, including first-round finishes of Craig and Cerqueira.
79% takedown defence means Sy's best path is contested, not free.
Twelve Octagon fights against four, all of Bukauskas's against genuinely elite light heavyweights.
Sy's own sample is thin, and the one time someone refused to fight at range — Menifield — he lost.

Final Assessment

This is the cleanest prospect-versus-veteran fight on the Paris card, and unusually the prospect is the one with the better numbers in almost every column. Seven inches of reach, the division's second-best striking defence, the division's second-lowest damage absorbed, and a takedown game the other man simply does not have an equivalent of.

What keeps it honest is that Modestas Bukauskas has spent six years learning exactly how to beat fighters who look like this — and that the one time Oumar Sy lost, it was to a shorter man who refused to let the range matter. The Lithuanian has that plan and eleven knockouts' worth of reason to believe in it.

The model lands on 55-45 and stays there. Sy should win the wrestling exchanges, the control minutes and the cards in front of his own crowd. But he has a 0.00 knockdown-absorbed line only because nobody with this kind of pop has caught him yet, and the last man to try — Nikita Krylov, against Bukauskas — needed until 4:57 of the third to get it done.

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