MAIN CARD · MIDDLEWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Parnasse vs. Hooker
Michael Page — Middleweight fighter

Michael Page

“Venom”
25W3L
Karate Point-Striker
…
VS
Nursulton Ruziboev — Middleweight fighter

Nursulton Ruziboev

“Black”
37W9L2D
Submission Finisher
…

The least-hit man in the division vs. 21 career submissions

MiddleweightAccor Arena, Paris, FranceSeptember 5, 2026Standard 30ft Octagon
01

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Two of the lowest-volume strikers in the middleweight division (2.39 and 2.38 significant strikes per minute — 64th and 62nd of 72) meet in a fight that will be decided by a handful of clean exchanges. Michael Page has built a 3-1 UFC run out of one thing: not getting hit. He absorbs 1.68 strikes per minute — the second-lowest figure of any active middleweight — and all four of his Octagon fights have gone the full fifteen minutes. Nursulton Ruziboev arrives from the other extreme: 34 of his 37 career wins are finishes, 21 of them submissions, and he lands 80% of the takedowns he attempts. The fight is a single question with two clean answers: does Page spend fifteen minutes at 79 inches, or does Ruziboev get one grip and find a neck?

Michael Page
Attribute
Nursulton Ruziboev
39
Age
32
6'3"
Height
6'5"
79"+3" Page
Reach
76"
N/A
Leg Reach
N/A
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
London Shootfighters, London, UK
Team
Not published
Mar 9, 2024 (Kevin Holland)
Octagon Debut
Jul 1, 2023 (Brunno Ferreira)
Karate point-striking, blitz entries
Fighting Style
Kickboxing frame + chokes off scrambles

The frame is split. Ruziboev is the taller man at 6'5" — two inches over Page — but Page owns the reach by three inches (79" vs 76"), and reach is the measurement that matters against a fighter who wants to close. Page is seven years older (39 vs 32) and has not fought since August 2025, a full year of ring rust against a man who fought as recently as June 2026. Neither has a published leg reach. Page fights from a switch stance and lands 84% of his significant strikes standing at distance; Ruziboev is orthodox, and in his UFC second rounds only 42% of his output has landed at range — the rest came in the clinch and on the ground.

Venue Factor
Three rounds, not five, is the single most important structural fact here. Page's entire UFC identity is built on the full fifteen minutes — every one of his four Octagon bouts hit the final horn, and he has won three of them on the cards. Fifteen minutes is enough time for his accuracy to bank rounds; it is also short enough that a single Ruziboev entry in Round 1 or 2 can end the night before Page's arithmetic ever applies. A five-round version of this fight would favour Page more; a three-round version keeps the Uzbek's one-grip path very much alive.
02

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Michael Page landing a strike in the Octagon

Michael Page

Pro Record
25-3-0
UFC Record
4-1 — every bout went the full 15:00
Streak
3 straight (Magomedov, Cannonier, Patterson)
Finish Rate
64% career (13 KO + 3 Sub of 25) · 0% in the UFC
Avg Fight Time
11:21 UFC · 15:00 in all five UFC bouts
Chin · Rarely testedSOS · Top-15 UFCKarate point-striker (DB stance: Switch)

The most successful late-career Bellator import the UFC has taken. Page rebuilt himself inside the Octagon into a 58%-accuracy sniper who absorbs 1.51 strikes per minute and wins on the cards. Four unanimous decisions (Holland, Magomedov, Cannonier, Patterson) and one unanimous loss (Machado Garry) — no finishes, no knockdowns scored, no knockdowns absorbed. The Patterson win in London (Mar 2026) ended the year-long layoff after Cannonier; at 39 the arithmetic still works until someone closes the distance and refuses to play point-fighting.

Nursulton Ruziboev in grappling control in the Octagon

Nursulton Ruziboev

Pro Record
37-9-2 (2 NC)
UFC Record
5-1 — 3 stoppages
Streak
2 straight (Stoltzfus UD, Pulyaev RNC R1)
Finish Rate
92% career (13 KO + 21 Sub of 37) · 60% in the UFC
Avg Fight Time
08:02 (five UFC bouts, pre-Pulyaev)
Chin · AverageSOS · UnrankedVolume submission finisher (DB style: Kickboxer)

A 48-fight career built almost entirely on finishing: 34 of his 37 wins ended early, 21 of them by submission. In the UFC he opened with two first-round stoppages (Ferreira at 1:17, Dumas at 3:18), took a decision loss to Joaquin Buckley in the one fight against a genuine contender, and then rebuilt with a second-round TKO of Eric McConico, a decision over Dustin Stoltzfus and a first-round rear-naked choke of Andrey Pulyaev in June 2026. The pattern is unmistakable: when he lands first he wins fast, and when he doesn't, the fight becomes a coin flip that the better athlete usually takes — Buckley put 64 significant strikes on him in a single third round.

Michael Page
0 dealt · 0 absorbed
Knockdown Exchange
KD dealt vs absorbed
Nursulton Ruziboev
0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Michael Pagesignature weapons

Karate Blitz / Switch-Kick KO13 career KO/TKO — but zero finishes in four UFC bouts; last stoppage was Yamauchi, Mar 2023
×13
Submissions3 career subs — and 0.00 submission attempts per 15 min inside the UFC
×3

Nursulton Ruziboevsignature weapons

Chokes (RNC / Front Chokes)21 of 37 career wins by submission — latest: rear-naked choke of Pulyaev, R1, Jun 2026
×21
KO/TKO13 career KO/TKO — three in the UFC (Ferreira 1:17, Dumas 3:18, McConico R2 0:33); 3 knockdowns in 5 Octagon bouts
×13

Michael Page

W
Sam Patterson
Decision — Unanimous
RR3
UFC Fight Night — London — Mar 21, 2026
W
Jared Cannonier
Decision — Unanimous
RR3
UFC 319 — Aug 16, 2025
W
Shara Magomedov
Decision — Unanimous
RR3
UFC FN: Adesanya vs. Imavov — Feb 1, 2025
L
Ian Machado Garry
Decision — Unanimous
RR3
UFC 303 — Jun 29, 2024
W
Kevin Holland
Decision — Unanimous
RR3
UFC 299 — Mar 9, 2024
Pattern

Four UFC fights, four full fifteen-minute bouts, three unanimous wins. The quality of the names is real — Holland, Machado Garry, Magomedov, Cannonier — and Page is 3-1 against them without ever being knocked down. But the form line also says what he no longer does: no finishes, no knockdowns scored, and a striking output (2.39 per minute) that ranks 64th of 72 active middleweights. He wins by being untouchable and slightly busier than the other man, which works until an opponent who does not care about points closes the distance. His last Bellator finish — a 26-second leg-kick TKO of Goiti Yamauchi — is now three and a half years old.

Nursulton Ruziboev

W
Andrey Pulyaev
Submission — Rear-naked choke
RR1 (3:58)
UFC Fight Night — Jun 27, 2026
W
Dustin Stoltzfus
Decision — Unanimous
RR3
UFC FN: Burns vs. Morales — May 17, 2025
W
Eric McConico
KO/TKO
RR2 (0:33)
UFC FN: Cejudo vs. Song — Feb 22, 2025
L
Joaquin Buckley
Decision — Unanimous
RR3
UFC FN: Lewis vs. Nascimento — May 11, 2024
W
Sedriques Dumas
KO/TKO
RR1
UFC FN: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot — Mar 30, 2024
Pattern

Two first-round stoppages to open his UFC run, then the ceiling: Buckley outworked him for three rounds and dropped him in the third. Since then, a clean second-round TKO of McConico, a full-distance decision over Stoltzfus that showed a version of him who can grind (nine of his eleven second-round strikes against Stoltzfus landed on the ground), and a first-round rear-naked choke of Pulyaev in June 2026 that reminded everyone what he actually is. The record is 5-1 with three finishes, but every win came against unranked opposition — the one time he faced a contender-grade opponent, he lost every round.

Michael Page

Win Methods
Wins by Round

Nursulton Ruziboev

Win Methods
Wins by Round
Critical Insight
The two charts are on deliberately different scales, and that is the point. The donuts are career: Page finishes 54% of his wins by strikes, Ruziboev submits 57% of his. The round bars are UFC-only — Page's three Octagon wins are three decisions, Ruziboev's five are two first-round finishes, one second-round TKO and two decisions — because the round-by-round breakdown of Ruziboev's 32 pre-UFC wins has never been published and is not invented here. Read together: the man with the bigger career finishing reel is the one who no longer finishes anybody, and the man with 21 submissions has never been asked to submit a top-15 opponent.

Common Opponents

OpponentMichaelNursulton
Joaquin Buckley (style proxy)—(blueprint for Page)L· UD3 (May 2024)
A mover who pressured, wrestled and banked rounds — 64 sig strikes on Ruziboev in R3 alone
Ian Machado Garry (style proxy)L· UD3 (Jun 2024)—(blueprint for Ruziboev)
Long, mobile, willing to chain takedowns — the one profile that has beaten Page in the UFC
03

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Striking

SLpM 25% · StrAcc 30% · StrDef 30% · SApM 15%

0
Michaelsmall sample
0
Nursultonsmall sample

Page wins this on efficiency, not volume: 60% accuracy (13th of 72), 57% defence (16th) and 1.68 absorbed per minute (2nd). Ruziboev is 46% accurate with 49% defence — the softest striking defence Page has faced since Magomedov. Both samples are small (4 and 6 UFC bouts).

Grappling

TD/15 25% · TDAcc 25% · TDDef 30% · Sub/15 20%

0
Michael
0
Nursultonsmall sample

Bipolar on both sides. Ruziboev lands 80% of his takedown attempts and has 21 career submissions, but defends only 33% of shots against him (61st of 72). Page defends 67% and has never landed a takedown in the UFC — 0 for 20 attempted, 0.00 submission attempts per 15 min.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

0.0
Michael
0
Nursulton

Almost identical technical grades reached from opposite directions — Page through defensive precision, Ruziboev through finishing threat. A point and a half is noise, not an edge.

Cardio

Fight time · pace · R3/R1 output · champ rounds

0
Michael
0
Nursultonsmall sample

Page has finished all four of his UFC fights at 15:00 and still lands 10.5 significant strikes in the third. Ruziboev has only reached the third round twice, but when he did his output rose (13.5 sig in R3 vs 10.2 in R1) — a small sample pointing the right way.

Overall

(Technical + Cardio) / 2

0
Michael
0
Nursulton

A two-point composite gap that matches the model's 57-43 lean almost exactly. This is a close fight priced on defence and durability, not on dominance.

MetricMichaelNursulton
Avg Fight Time10:44 career · 15:00 every UFC bout08:02 (UFC)
Pace TierLow volume — 2.39 SLpM (64th/72)Low volume — 2.38 SLpM (62nd/72)
R3/R1 Output98% (10.5 vs 10.8 sig)132% (13.5 vs 10.2 sig)small sample
Slow Start %Low — 58% accuracy in R1Moderate — 45% accuracy in R1
Champ RoundsN/A — 3-round boutN/A — 3-round bout

Archetype Base Rate

Karate Point-Striker 50%50% Volume Submission Finisher

No archetype base-rate row for this pairing · No historical archetype win-rate is applied to this fight — the database has no matchup row for this pairing, and none is invented. The 57-43 lean comes from measured rate stats, division ranks and the round-by-round record only.

Michael PageNursulton Ruziboev

Middleweight

· 72 fighters
StatMichaelMichael rankDiv avgNursulton rankNursulton
SLpM2.39
64/72
~4.19
62/72
2.38
Str Acc60%
13/72elite
~51.8%
50/72
46%
Str Def57%
16/72
~51.3%
45/72
49%
SApM1.68
2/72elite
~3.70
21/72
2.68
KD Avg0.23
44/72
~0.84
13/72elite
1.12
Damage Ratio1.42—~1.13—0.89
TD/150.23
62/72
~2.12
48/72small sample
1.36
TD Def67%
40/72
~69.9%
61/72
33%
Sub/150.00
48/72
~0.60—0.30
Avg Fight Time10:44 (career)———08:02 (UFC)
Statistical Verdict
Page owns the two numbers that decide a striking match — second in the entire division in strikes absorbed per minute (1.68) and thirteenth in accuracy (60%) — and gives away everything that decides a grappling match. Ruziboev is the opposite fighter in table form: thirteenth in knockdown average, eighth in takedown accuracy, and sixty-first of seventy-two in takedown defence. Neither man throws: 64th and 62nd in volume out of 72. A fight between the least-hit middleweight and the most-finishing one, contested at the second-lowest combined output on the card.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

Control Time per Round (sec)

Michael Page

  • Four UFC fights, twelve rounds, one shape: 10-12 significant strikes a round at 58-59% accuracy, and never once a knockdown scored or absorbed.
  • 95% of his first-round output lands at distance and 0% on the ground — the purest range fighter in this matchup by a distance.
  • His control time actually rises in the third (34 seconds), but that number is opponents' clinch work he escapes, not offence he generates.

Nursulton Ruziboev

  • Round 1 is his fastest window: 10.2 significant strikes at 45% and one knockdown across five opening rounds — both his UFC first-round finishes came inside 3:20.
  • Round 2 is where he changes fights: 38.5% of his output lands on the ground and 19.2% in the clinch, with 40 seconds of control and 0.67 knockdowns per round.
  • Round 3 is a two-fight sample only (Buckley, Stoltzfus) and his output rises to 13.5 — but the Buckley third round is also where he absorbed 64 significant strikes and was dropped.
Critical Insight
The charts describe two fighters who barely occupy the same fight. Page lands 92-95% of his strikes at range across every round; Ruziboev's second round collapses to 42% at range because the rest of it happens on top of somebody. Whoever imposes their round-two geometry wins the fight — there is almost no middle ground between them.

Strike Targeting (career avg)

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Range Profile — where the minutes go

MichaelNursulton
91%Distance66%
7%Clinch9%
2%Ground25%

Share of significant-strike volume by range from UFC career data. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.

04

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much
Open SpaceMichael owns it

79" reach, 60% accuracy, 1.68 absorbed per min (2nd/72) against 49% striking defence

Pocket / ExchangesEven

Page's 57% defence and zero knockdowns absorbed vs Ruziboev's 1.12 knockdown average (13th/72)

ClinchNursulton owns it

19.2% of Ruziboev's R2 strikes land in the clinch; only 4-5% of Page's output happens there

GroundNursulton owns it

21 career submissions and 80% takedown accuracy vs 0 UFC takedowns landed and 0.00 sub attempts

Path to Victory

Michael Page

Fifteen minutes at 79 inches. All four of his UFC fights ended exactly that way, and three of them ended with his hand raised.

Why they win
01
The reach, not the height

Ruziboev is two inches taller but Page has three inches more reach (79" vs 76"). Against a fighter who has to travel to do damage, the arm length is the measurement that matters.

02
Second-lowest damage taken in the division

1.68 significant strikes absorbed per minute — rank 2 of 72 active middleweights, against a divisional average of 3.70. Ruziboev has never faced anyone this hard to touch.

03
Accuracy against soft defence

60% striking accuracy (13th of 72) meeting 49% striking defence (45th). The gap is the cleanest statistical edge on the page.

04
He has been here before

Holland, Machado Garry, Magomedov, Cannonier — four opponents of genuine UFC quality, all fifteen minutes, no knockdowns absorbed. Ruziboev's best UFC opponent beat him.

05
The takedown he does not have to fear

67% takedown defence, and Ruziboev averages only 1.36 takedown attempts per 15 minutes. The Uzbek's grappling threat is lethal but low-frequency.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Fight the first minute like the last

    Ruziboev's two UFC first-round finishes came at 1:17 and 3:18. Survive the opening exchange window on the outside and the danger curve flattens immediately.

  2. 2
    Never linger in the clinch

    Only 4-5% of Page's output happens in the clinch. That is not a weakness to fix, it is a rule to keep — the clinch is where Ruziboev's body lock starts.

  3. 3
    Attack the legs and body early

    19-21% of his first-round strikes go to the legs. Against a taller man who needs to close, taking the mobility away is worth more than head-hunting.

  4. 4
    Punish the failed shot

    Ruziboev attempts few takedowns but commits to the ones he takes. Every stuffed entry is a free counter window against a 49% striking defence.

  5. 5
    Bank the third

    He lands 10.5 at 58% in every third round he has fought. If the first two are close, the round he has never lost on volume is the one to steal.

Path to Victory

Nursulton Ruziboev

One clean entry. A body lock, a scramble, a neck — twenty-one career submissions say the door only has to open once.

Why they win
01
33% takedown defence is not the story — his offence is

He lands 80% of the takedowns he does attempt. Against a man who has never been taken down repeatedly in the UFC, one successful entry changes the fight completely.

02
Twenty-one submissions

57% of his career wins are submissions, the most recent a first-round rear-naked choke in June 2026. Page has zero submission attempts in four UFC fights and no answer on his back on record.

03
Power on a scale Page does not carry

1.12 knockdown average, 13th of 72 middleweights, three knockdowns in five Octagon bouts. Page has scored none and takes 1.68 a minute — but has never been hit by someone with this frame.

04
Seven years younger, and active

32 against a 39-year-old who has not fought since August 2025. Ruziboev fought in June 2026 and finished in the first round.

05
The second-round trapdoor

38.5% of his second-round UFC output lands on the ground with 40 seconds of control and 0.67 knockdowns per round. If this fight ever touches the mat, it happens there.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Do not kickbox at 79 inches

    Trading at range against the second-least-hit middleweight in the division is the one plan that has no evidence behind it. The analysis file says it plainly: don't.

  2. 2
    Pressure to the body lock

    Cut the cage, close through the clinch, and use the two-inch height to get the grip. His 80% takedown accuracy only matters once he is attached.

  3. 3
    Force the scramble

    Page has no recorded submission defence in the UFC because nobody has tested it. Scrambles, not positions, are where 21 career chokes come from.

  4. 4
    Make round two the ground round

    38.5% of his R2 output already lands on the mat. Repeat the Stoltzfus second round — nine of eleven strikes from top position — and the card flips.

  5. 5
    Hunt the neck, not the points

    Two of his five UFC wins went to decision and both were narrow. His path is a finish, and the model agrees: 19 of his 43 win-shares come by submission.

Danger Zone

How Michael Page loses

  • He is taken down early, has no wrestling answer on record (0 takedowns landed in the UFC), and gives up his neck in a scramble.

  • A year of inactivity at 39 shows up as half a step of timing, and a 6'5" opponent lands the one clean shot Page's defence has always prevented.

  • The fight is a low-volume stalemate and the judges reward Ruziboev's control time over Page's cleaner but scarcer strikes.

Danger Zone

How Nursulton Ruziboev loses

  • He spends fifteen minutes chasing a man three inches longer than him, lands 45% of what he throws, and loses every round on the cards.

  • His entries fail against 67% takedown defence, and the failed shots put him in exactly the counter positions Page's blitz feeds on.

  • A repeat of the Buckley third round — the moment he gets tired and stationary, he becomes hittable, and Page is the most accurate striker he has faced.

The fight's central axis

The Untouchable

Michael Page absorbs 1.68 significant strikes per minute — the second-lowest figure among 72 active middleweights, less than half the divisional average of 3.70. He has never been knocked down in the Octagon. Ruziboev's entire career is built on landing first and finishing fast; he has never met a defensive profile like this.

1.68
sig strikes absorbed per min — 2nd of 72
The grappling paradox

The Open Door Nobody Walks Through

Ruziboev defends only 33% of takedowns against him — 61st of 72 middleweights, a structural hole. But Page has landed zero takedowns in the UFC on twenty attempts and averages 0.23 per fifteen minutes (62nd). The most exploitable weakness in this fight belongs to the man whose opponent cannot exploit it.

33%
Ruziboev takedown defence — 61st of 72
A three-round fight decided by a handful of strikes

Two Fighters Who Do Not Throw

2.39 and 2.38 significant strikes per minute — 64th and 62nd of 72. Neither man will out-volume the other into a decision; the cards will come down to which few exchanges each round the judges remember. That is a variance multiplier, and it is the main reason conviction stays at 4/10.

Where the fight can change shape

The Round-Two Trapdoor

In Ruziboev's UFC second rounds, 38.5% of his output lands on the ground and 19.2% in the clinch, with 40 seconds of control per round. In Page's second rounds, 91.8% lands at distance and 4.1% on the ground. Whoever's second-round geometry wins, wins the fight.

The record that flatters and the record that hides

Level of Competition

Page is 3-1 in the UFC against Holland, Machado Garry, Magomedov and Cannonier — four names with real division standing. Ruziboev is 5-1 against Ferreira, Dumas, McConico, Stoltzfus and Pulyaev, all unranked, and lost the one bout against a contender. The raw records say 24-3 and 37-9-2; the opposition says something else.

The Five-Round Clock

Michael Page danger windowNursulton Ruziboev danger windowNeutral / contested
R1 · 0:00–5:00Ruziboev's fastest window

Both his UFC first-round finishes landed inside 3:20 (1:17 vs Ferreira, 3:18 vs Dumas), plus one knockdown across five opening rounds. Page has never been dropped — this is the round that tests it.

Critical Insight
The whole fight prices as a ten-minute survival test. If Page is still upright and at range when the third round starts, the model's decision path — 35 of his 57 win-shares — is the overwhelming favourite. If Ruziboev has landed a takedown or a clean shot before then, the fight was probably already over.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

05

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things
1

Michael Page absorbs 1.68 significant strikes per minute — second of 72 active middleweights — and every one of his four UFC fights has gone the full fifteen minutes. If this fight stays at 79 inches, it almost certainly ends on the cards with his hand raised.

2

Nursulton Ruziboev has 21 career submissions, lands 80% of his takedowns, and puts 38.5% of his second-round output on the ground. Page has never landed a UFC takedown and has zero submission attempts on record — nobody has tested him there, which is exactly why the dog is live.

3

The model lands on Page 57% / Ruziboev 43% with conviction 4/10. Two of the division's lowest-volume strikers in a three-round fight is a variance machine: the lean is real, the certainty is not.

100 Simulated Fights

Page Decision — 35%Page Submission — 4%Page KO/TKO — 18%Ruziboev KO/TKO — 12%Ruziboev Decision — 12%Ruziboev Submission — 19%

Each square = 1 simulated fight. Michael Page gold · Nursulton Ruziboev orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

The range gap

Page holds three inches of reach, 60% accuracy and the division's second-lowest damage-taken figure against a 49% striking defence. In the simulations where the fight stays at distance for ten minutes, Page wins the overwhelming majority.

The takedown that never comes

Ruziboev's 33% takedown defence is the biggest hole on the page, but Page has landed zero takedowns in four UFC fights on twenty attempts. The model gives Page almost no credit for exploiting it — his 4 submission win-shares are the smallest bucket in the run.

Ruziboev's ground ceiling

80% takedown accuracy, 21 career submissions, and a second-round profile where 38.5% of his output lands on the mat. In 19 of 100 sims that path closes the fight — the single largest outcome bucket on his side.

The power differential

1.12 knockdowns per fifteen minutes (13th of 72) against a man who has never been dropped in the Octagon. 12 of the Uzbek's 43 win-shares come by strikes, most of them in the first ten minutes.

Level of competition

Page's four UFC opponents have all been ranked or ranked-adjacent; Ruziboev's five wins are all against unranked names and his one step up ended in a shutout loss with 64 strikes absorbed in a single round. The model treats that gap as real but not decisive — hence 57-43, not 70-30.

Fight Scripts

0%
of simulations

The Range Clinic

Page keeps the fight at the end of his 79-inch reach for fifteen minutes, lands 10-12 clean strikes a round at nearly 60%, and never lets Ruziboev attach. Three rounds, no drama, a unanimous decision — the exact shape of all four of his UFC fights.

Scripted outcomes for Michael Page vs Nursulton Ruziboev — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Michael Page win probability
0%
18%
35%
4%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • 13 career KO/TKO but zero UFC finishes in four fights — the power is real history, not current form. Ruziboev's 49% striking defence is what keeps this bucket honest.

  • The largest single outcome in the run, and the shape of his entire Octagon career: four fights, four full fifteen-minute bouts, three decision wins.

  • The smallest bucket on the page. Ruziboev's 33% takedown defence invites it; Page's zero UFC takedowns and 0.00 submission attempts per 15 min say he will not accept the invitation.

Nursulton Ruziboev win probability
0%
12%
12%
19%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • 1.12 knockdowns per fifteen minutes (13th of 72) and a 6'5" frame against a chin that has never been dropped in the UFC. Most of this equity sits in the first ten minutes.

  • His narrowest path. Two of his five UFC wins went to the cards and both were close — out-pointing a 60%-accuracy sniper over three rounds asks for a version of him nobody has seen.

  • His biggest bucket and the reason this is a live dog: 21 career submissions, 80% takedown accuracy, and an opponent with no recorded submission defence.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round
R1
Michael
R2
Nursulton
R3
Michael
29-28 Page
Range in the first and third, Ruziboev banks the second on top
The most common decision shape in the model
30-27 Page
Every entry fails and the fight never leaves distance
Common when Ruziboev's takedowns miss
29-28 Ruziboev
Two rounds of control time out-weigh the cleaner strikes
The dog's realistic decision path

Moneyline

Michael Page
-175
Nursulton Ruziboev
+149

BetOnline moneyline shown above (Sep 4, 2026). Model fair prices and value notes below compare our analysis to the market where props exist — they are not alternate sportsbook lines.

Props: model vs market

PropOddsImplied %Model %FairEdgeVerdict
Best Value
With no market to compare against, the actionable read is the shape rather than the price: the model has Ruziboev's submission path (19%) as larger than his knockout path (12%) and larger than Page's knockout path is over the same distance. If the books price this as a straight striker-versus-striker matchup and hang Ruziboev at a long number, the inside-the-distance and submission props are where the model disagrees with the obvious read.
Conviction
0
4/10

A genuine lean on measurable defence, held to 4/10 because the fight is short, the volume is low, and the dog's one path is the exact path nobody has ever tested on the favourite. Lean: Michael Page.

What backs the lean

  • 1.68 significant strikes absorbed per minute — 2nd of 72 active middleweights, against a divisional average of 3.70.

  • 60% striking accuracy (13th) meeting 49% striking defence (45th), with three inches of reach on top of it.

  • 3-1 in the UFC against Holland, Machado Garry, Magomedov and Cannonier; Ruziboev's five wins are all against unranked opposition.

  • Ruziboev needs a takedown to win his best way, and he only attempts 1.36 per fifteen minutes.

What limits it

  • Page is 39, has not fought since August 2025, and has never been submitted or seriously tested on the ground in the UFC — an untested defence is not a proven one.

  • Ruziboev's 21 career submissions and 80% takedown accuracy mean he only needs one successful entry across fifteen minutes.

  • Both men are bottom-fifteen in the division for output; three low-volume rounds can be scored either way by three different judges.

  • The Uzbek's 1.12 knockdown average is the highest power number in the fight, and Page's own finishing form is three and a half years old.

Final Assessment

This is a fight between the hardest middleweight in the division to hit and one of the easiest to submit — except that the man who cannot be hit has never taken anybody down, and the man who submits everybody has to get through 79 inches of reach to start. That symmetry is why the number is 57-43 and not something more comfortable.

Michael Page's UFC career is a four-fight argument for one idea: fifteen minutes at range, 60% accuracy, and almost nothing coming back. Against Holland, Magomedov and Cannonier it produced three unanimous decisions. Nursulton Ruziboev's 49% striking defence is the softest target that argument has faced, and if the fight looks like Page's other four, the cards are a formality.

But Ruziboev only needs the fight to look like it did for one round against Stoltzfus — nine of eleven strikes from top position — or for the eighty seconds it took to choke Andrey Pulyaev in June. Page is 39, a year inactive, and carrying a grappling résumé of zero takedowns and zero submission attempts. The lean is on the measurable defence; the conviction is capped at 4/10 because the dog's path is short, well-practised, and has never once been closed.

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