Bilal Hasan vs Nilson Rojas – UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song Fight Analytics & Prediction

FLYWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song

Bilal Hasan

“The IndoNinja”

9W0L

Taekwondo Technician

…

Nilson Rojas

“El Rayo”

9W0L

One-Shot Puncher

…

Two unbeaten debutants, and eighteen days since the last weigh-in

FlyweightSPD Bank Oriental Sports Center, Shanghai, ChinaAugust 29, 2026Standard 30ft Octagon

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Both men are 9-0 and neither has ever entered the Octagon, so the record column is a mirror that tells you nothing. Bilal Hasan is a 25-year-old taekwondo technician out of Everett, Washington who won the CFFC flyweight title, defended it three times, and then walked onto the Contender Series on August 11 as the biggest betting favourite in the show's history at −5000 and erased 9-1 Mridul Saikia in 45 seconds. Nilson Rojas is a 27-year-old Peruvian who signed directly with the UFC off the Lima regional circuit and carries seven strike-based knockouts and genuine one-shot power that is rare at 125 lbs. The structural fork is level of competition and activity — nine wins in 3.7 years against nine in 8.1 — and the counterweight is a calendar: Hasan fights eighteen days after that knockout, which means a second cut to 125 inside three weeks and twelve time zones of travel. We land Hasan 68% / Rojas 32%, conviction 4 out of 10.

Bilal Hasan

Attribute

Nilson Rojas

25−2 yrs

Age

5'7" (67")+2"

Height

5'5" (65")

70"Rojas unlisted

Reach

Not found

Leg Reach

Not found

Switch

Stance

Orthodox (regional tape, unconfirmed)

Charlie's Combat Club, Everett WA + AMC Pankration with Demetrious Johnson

Team

Team Bad Boy, Lima

August 29, 2026 — this bout

Octagon Debut

August 29, 2026 — this bout

Taekwondo-based technical striker — spinning heel kicks, elbows, switch entries

Fighting Style

One-shot power puncher — heavy right hand, left hook, fence combinations, clinch knees

Length and youth to the IndoNinja, density and power to El Rayo. Hasan is two inches taller and two years younger, and a 70-inch reach on a 5'7" frame is long for flyweight — that is a genuine kickboxing-range advantage against a man who does all of his damage inside. Rojas's reach is not found in any indexed source, which is itself informative about how thinly this fighter is documented; at 5'5" the working assumption is that Hasan owns the outside by a meaningful margin, but this page will not print a number it cannot source. The stance note matters more than usual: Hasan is a switch fighter, and a taekwondo base plus southpaw-orthodox flipping is exactly the look that disrupts a puncher who loads single shots from a fixed lead. Rojas's counter-asset is not measurable in inches — it is that seven of his nine wins ended by strikes, and one-shot flyweight power is uncommon enough that it survives a size deficit.

Venue Factor
The SPD Bank Oriental Sports Center is a neutral building for both men — Hasan is American-Indonesian, Rojas is Peruvian, and neither carries a home crowd. What Shanghai does carry is a 6:00 AM ET, 6:00 PM local slot on a card built around Chinese and Dagestani headliners, on the far side of a long-haul flight from both Washington State and Lima. For a fighter eighteen days removed from a weight cut and a knockout, travel, time-zone shift and a second rehydration cycle are not narrative garnish — they are the single largest deduction we apply to Hasan's number.

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Bilal Hasan

Pro Record

9-0-0 (1 NC)

UFC Record

0-0 — Octagon debut

Streak

Nine straight wins — last: TKO of 9-1 Mridul Saikia in 45 seconds on DWCS

Finish Rate

89% (8 of 9 wins) — 7 KO/TKO, 1 submission

Avg Fight Time

Not established — no UFC bouts

Chin · UntestedSOS · Deep US regionalTaekwondo-based technical finisher (estimated)

A fighter on a ramp. Hasan turned pro in December 2022 and has compiled nine wins and a no-contest in under four years — three fights in 2024, two in 2025, and the Contender Series finish in 2026 — winning the CFFC flyweight belt by rear-naked choke over Jose Leon and defending it three times before withdrawing from a fourth defence (Ben Coyle, CFFC 153, April 17 2026, cancelled) specifically to take the DWCS call. Before the gloves he was a taekwondo competitor with three international gold medals and a world No. 2 ranking in his junior division, which is where the spinning heel kicks and switch entries come from; the wrestling is a late addition, coached rather than native, developed in weekly work with Demetrious Johnson at AMC Pankration. The single loudest line on the ledger is the most recent one: Dana White's Contender Series priced him at −5000, the largest favourite in the show's history, and he validated it in 45 seconds against a 9-1 opponent.

Nilson Rojas

Pro Record

9-0-0

UFC Record

0-0 — Octagon debut

Streak

Nine straight wins — last: unanimous decision over undefeated countryman Gonzalo Hanampa

Finish Rate

78% (7 of 9 wins) — all seven by strikes, zero submissions

Avg Fight Time

Not established — no UFC bouts

Chin · UntestedSOS · Peruvian regionalOne-shot power puncher (estimated)

The slow-burn version of the same 9-0 record. Rojas turned pro in July 2018 in Lima and needed eight calendar years to reach nine wins, with a three-year competitive gap between September 2019 and October 2022 sitting in the middle of it. He is not inactive by choice so much as by circuit — the Peruvian scene simply does not run the volume CFFC does — but the consequence is the same: fewer high-pressure reps, and none of them against opposition vetted at the level Hasan's has. What he does own is a tool that transfers regardless of who it was used on. Seven of his nine wins ended by strikes, scouting reports converge on genuine one-shot power that is uncommon at 125, and his fence work — pinning opponents on the cage, unloading combinations, mixing in clinch knees to the body and legs — is the most organised part of his game. He signed directly with the UFC rather than through the Contender Series, and the only external benchmark on his file is an amateur loss to Kevin Borjas, who fights on this same Shanghai card.

Bilal Hasan

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Knockdown Exchange

KD dealt vs absorbed

Nilson Rojas

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Bilal Hasansignature weapons

Spinning Heel KickJacob Romano, R2 0:23 at CFFC 129 — a fight ended 23 seconds into a round with a technique most flyweights never land cleanly

×1

Punches from Switch StanceSaikia (0:45), Manse (2:47), Findley (4:33) and Ortega (4:15) — four Round-1 stoppages, with elbows singled out on the DWCS broadcast as "really hard to throw like that"

×4

Rear-Naked ChokeJose Leon, R2 2:16 at CFFC 136 — the back-take that won him the CFFC flyweight title under championship pressure

×1

Nilson Rojassignature weapons

Right Hand / Left HookFierro (KO R1 1:50), Rocha (TKO R1 4:25) and Vargas (TKO R2 1:20) — single shots loaded from a fixed lead, hunting the drop rather than accumulating

×3

KO by KneeJohn Alvarez, R1 1:13 at OFC 1 — proof the clinch tool finishes, and the only range where a 5'5" frame works for him

×1

Body Kick into PunchesWallafy Fernandes, R1 4:30 at FFC 94 — kicks are a punctuation mark on a boxing-first game, not a system

×1

Bilal Hasan

Mridul Saikia (9-1)

KO/TKO — Punches

RR1 (0:45)

Dana White's Contender Series S10 W1 — Aug 11, 2026

Renaldy Manse

KO/TKO

RR1 (2:47)

CFFC 149: Cafaro vs. Patton — Dec 20, 2025

Jason Eastman

KO/TKO

RR4 (1:46)

CFFC 143 — Jun 6, 2025 (five-round title defence)

Brian Hauser

KO/TKO

RR2 (2:11)

CFFC 139 — Feb 1, 2025 (title defence)

Jose Leon

Submission — Rear-naked choke

RR2 (2:16)

CFFC 136: Forest vs. Richards — Sep 27, 2024 (won CFFC title)

Pattern

Five straight finishes, four of them in the last twenty-one months, against escalating opposition. The sequence reads as a clean ladder: win the belt by rear-naked choke over Jose Leon, defend it against Brian Hauser, defend it in the championship rounds against a durable Jason Eastman with a Round 4 stoppage, defend it again against Renaldy Manse, then destroy a 9-1 international prospect on the UFC's own audition show in 45 seconds. A scheduled fourth defence against Ben Coyle at CFFC 153 on April 17, 2026 was cancelled when Hasan withdrew to take the Contender Series booking — the only gap in an otherwise relentless 2024-2026 run. Nothing in this five-fight window went to the judges, and nothing was close.

Nilson Rojas

Gonzalo Hanampa (undefeated)

Decision — Unanimous

RR3 (5:00)

Inka MMA 59, Peru — Jul 22, 2026 (co-main)

Wallafy Fernandes

KO/TKO — Body kick + punches

RR1 (4:30)

FFC 94: Llontop vs. Brasil, Lima — Aug 21, 2025

William Rocha

KO/TKO — Punch

RR1 (4:25)

OFL 9: Open Fight Latam 9 — Jul 21, 2024

Miguel Ángel Fierro

KO — Punch

RR1 (1:50)

FFC 55: Navarrete vs. Lanskoi — Nov 18, 2022

John Alvarez

KO — Knee

RR1 (1:13)

OFC 1: Open Fight Chile 1 — Oct 8, 2022

Pattern

Four consecutive first-round knockouts followed by his first full-distance decision — a near-perfect illustration of the profile. The four knockouts are spread across four years (October 2022, November 2022, July 2024, August 2025), which is the activity problem in one line: he is dangerous but rarely on. The Hanampa unanimous decision in July 2026 is the most valuable fight on this list for our purposes, because it is the only evidence in six years that he can operate for fifteen minutes, and it came against another unbeaten fighter. One documentation caveat: only eight of Rojas's nine professional bouts appear in any publicly indexed source. The five above are individually verified; the completeness of his full ledger is not.

Bilal Hasan

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Nilson Rojas

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Critical Insight
The method columns are nearly identical — seven knockouts apiece — and that similarity is a trap. The difference is shape and diversity. Hasan finishes with kicks, elbows, punches and a choke, across Rounds 1, 2 and 4, including in a five-round championship fight; his one submission is the rear-naked choke of Jose Leon that won him the CFFC title, so his grappling closed the biggest night of his regional career. Rojas finishes with punches, one knee and one body kick, and every stoppage he has ever recorded landed in Round 1 or Round 2. Hasan has more ways to end it and more places on the clock to do it; Rojas has one very good way, and it is loudest early. Both arithmetic checks close: 7 KO + 1 Sub + 1 Dec = 9 wins for Hasan, 7 KO + 0 Sub + 2 Dec = 9 for Rojas. The round bars are the one place they do not — Hasan's account for all nine of his wins, Rojas's for only eight, because one bout in the 2020-2023 window is not found in any database we could reach.

Common Opponents

Opponent	Bilal	Nilson
Kevin Borjas (external benchmark)	—(no shared opposition exists at any level)	L· amateur, Chasqui FC 5
Rojas's amateur career ended with a loss to Borjas — who fights on this same Shanghai card with six UFC bouts behind him. It is not a professional result and it does not touch the 9-0, but it is the only occasion a name on his ledger can be measured against a known UFC quantity, and he came out on the wrong side of it.
Mridul Saikia (9-1) — level-of-competition benchmark	W· TKO R1 0:45 (DWCS, Aug 2026)	—(no comparable scalp on the ledger)
The best verified opponent either man has beaten. The market's read on that talent gap was −5000, the largest favourite in Contender Series history; Rojas's best win is a decision over an unbeaten countryman on the Peruvian circuit.

Bilalsmall sample

0.0

Nilsonsmall sample

A consistent ten-point separation across technique and conditioning, which maps to roughly a 2:1 favourite. We hold Hasan 68 / Rojas 32 — the spread the composites imply, trimmed toward the underdog because both projections rest on regional tape and neither man has a single verified Octagon minute.

Metric	Bilal	Nilson
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	Not established — UFC debutsmall sample	Not established — UFC debutsmall sample
Pace Tier	Not measured — 8 of 9 wins finishedsmall sample	Not measured — 7 of 9 wins finishedsmall sample
R3/R1 OutputR3/R1 OutputThird-round output as % of first-round output. Above 100% = builds into the fight; below = fades.	No round data existssmall sample	No round data existssmall sample
Slow Start %Slow Start %Share of fights where the fighter starts below their usual pace. 0% = fast starter every time.	Very low — 4 R1 finishes, median in the back half of R1small sample	Very low — 4 R1 knockouts, two inside 1:50small sample
Champ RoundsChamp RoundsEvidence from rounds 4-5 — only fighters with five-round experience have data here.	Yes — R4 1:46 TKO of Eastman in a five-round title fight	None — never been past fifteen minutes

Archetype Base Rate

Taekwondo Technical Striker 68%32% One-Shot Power Puncher

No archetype base-rate row exists for two Octagon debutants · No historical archetype win-rate is applied. The 68-32 line is the ten-point composite gap — competition faced, activity, finishing diversity, championship-round tape — discounted for an eighteen-day turnaround, a second weight cut inside three weeks, and the fact that both projections rest entirely on regional footage.

Bilal HasanNilson Rojas

Flyweight

· 45 fighters

Stat	Bilal	Bilal rank	Div avg	Nilson rank	Nilson
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	0.00 — debutant	—	~4.0–4.5	—	0.00 — debutant
Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise.	0% — debutant	—	~44–46%	—	0% — debutant
Str DefStr DefStriking Defense — share of opponents' significant strikes that do NOT land. Higher = harder to hit.	0% — debutant	—	~55–57%	—	0% — debutant
SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better.	0.00 — debutant	—	~3.8–4.2	—	0.00 — debutant
KD AvgKD AvgKnockdown Average — knockdowns scored per 15 minutes. The one-shot power indicator.	0.00 — debutant	—	—	—	0.00 — debutant
Damage RatioDamage RatioStrikes landed vs absorbed, normalized. Above 1.15 (division avg) = you hurt more than you get hurt.	Not established	—	—	—	Not established
TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine.	0.00 — debutant	—	~1.7–2.0	—	0.00 — debutant
TD DefTD DefTakedown Defense — share of opponents' takedown attempts stuffed.	0% — debutant	—	~60–63%	—	0% — debutant
Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat.	0.00 — debutant	—	~0.5	—	0.00 — debutant
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	Not established	—	—	—	Not established

Statistical Verdict
There is no statistical comparison in this fight — there are two empty UFC columns and a pile of regional context, and that is the honest state of the data. Every conventional rate row reads 0.00 for both men. What separates them sits entirely outside this table: career finish rate 89% against 78%, four fights in the last twenty-four months against three, 3.7 years to reach nine wins against 8.1, championship-round experience against none, and a best verified scalp of a 9-1 Contender Series opponent against an unbeaten countryman in Lima. What argues back sits in one line that is also not in this table: eighteen days. The clean summary is that Hasan is the better and busier fighter against the better opposition, and Rojas is the harder single punch against a man who fought two and a half weeks ago.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

⚠ R1, R2, R3: single-fight sample for Bilal Hasan

⚠ R1, R2, R3: single-fight sample for Nilson Rojas

Control Time per Round (sec)

Bilal Hasan

No round-by-round rows exist. Neither v_fighter_rxr_complete nor fighter_rxr_profile returns a single record for Bilal Hasan, exactly as expected for a man who has never entered the Octagon, so nothing is drawn here rather than estimated from regional footage.
The verified substitute is the finish-time distribution, and it is unusually clean: four Round-1 finishes (Saikia 0:45, Manse 2:47, Findley 4:33, Ortega 4:15) and three Round-2 finishes (Romano 0:23, Leon 2:16, Hauser 2:11). Seven of his eight stoppages land inside ten minutes and his median finish sits in the back half of Round 1.
The Eastman result is the line that separates him from a pure sprinter — a TKO at R4 1:46 in a five-round CFFC title fight. He has been past fifteen minutes and still had the output to finish there.
The one No Contest, against Sonny Suranjin at R1 0:07, is a seven-second event and is treated as a null result rather than evidence of anything.

Nilson Rojas

No round-by-round rows exist for Nilson Rojas either, and the gap runs deeper than the Octagon: no public source carries strike-attempt, accuracy or control-time data for any of his nine professional bouts, at any level. His profile is qualitative only.
His finish distribution is front-loaded and shallow: at least four Round-1 knockouts (Alvarez 1:13, Fierro 1:50, Rocha 4:25, Fernandes 4:30) and two Round-2 finishes (Vargas 1:20, Soto). He has never finished anybody after Round 2.
His two most recent stoppages both landed in the closing minute of Round 1 — 4:30 and 4:25 — which is the signature of a fighter whose danger peaks once an opponent has settled into a rhythm and stopped respecting the right hand.
The Hanampa unanimous decision in July 2026 is his first full three rounds since 2018 and his only current deep-water data point, so his three-round evidence is one fight old and eight years apart from the other one.

Critical Insight
Rojas's win equity is almost entirely front-loaded and Hasan's is distributed. Rojas has four Round-1 knockouts and zero finishes after Round 2 — his path is a clean connection inside the first ten minutes, and if he has not landed the shot by the second horn his statistical template runs out of pages. Hasan finishes in Rounds 1, 2 and 4, has a submission mechanism, and wins the technical argument if the fight goes long. The longer this fight lasts, the more monotonically it favours the IndoNinja — with the single caveat that an eighteen-day turnaround is exactly the kind of thing that shows up in minute twelve, not minute one.

Strike Targeting (career avg)

No UFC strike-target data for either fighter — nothing is estimated.

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage. Fighters without UFC samples are omitted rather than shown as 0%.

Range Profile — where the minutes go

Bilal · N/ANilson · N/A

No UFC range-share data for either fighter — nothing is estimated.

Share of significant-strike volume by range from UFC career data. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much

Open SpaceBilal owns it

70" reach on a 5'7" frame, a switch stance and an international-medal taekwondo kicking base against a 5'5" puncher who must travel to score

Pocket / ExchangesNilson owns it

Seven strike-based knockouts and one-shot power scouts call rare at 125, against a chin no opponent has ever properly tested

ClinchNilson owns it

Fence pinning, combinations and clinch knees are his most organised skill — the Alvarez KO by knee — and the one range where 70 inches stops mattering

GroundBilal owns it

A title-winning rear-naked choke and weekly grappling with Demetrious Johnson against zero career submissions and balance-based takedown defence

The Deep Read

The eighteen-day clock is the defining structural variable in this fight and it deserves a precise reading rather than a headline. Hasan knocked out Mridul Saikia on August 11, 2026 and fights on August 29. The naive version says no camp, short notice, fade him. The accurate version cuts in two directions. In his favour: the DWCS fight lasted 45 seconds, so there is essentially zero accumulated damage — no rounds absorbed, no cumulative trauma, no long recovery arc. He was in a completed, peaked camp on August 11 and has simply held it. Against him: he must make 125 lbs twice in eighteen days, then travel from Washington State to Shanghai across a twelve-hour time-zone inversion for a 6:00 PM local start. The risk mechanism is rehydration and cut recovery, not fatigue — and that risk expresses itself as a soft chin and slow legs in Rounds 1 and 2, not as gassing in Round 3. We deduct roughly five to seven points of win probability for it and no more; a longer deduction would be pricing a mechanism that does not match the tape.

Strength of schedule is the largest real gap here and it can be described entirely qualitatively, which is exactly how this page describes it. CFFC is a recognised UFC feeder on the US East Coast: Hasan won its flyweight title, defended it three times, and did so against opponents who were themselves being scouted. He then beat a 9-1 fighter on the UFC's own audition programme in 45 seconds, and the betting market's read on that talent gap was −5000, the largest in Contender Series history. Rojas's ledger runs through FFC, Inka MMA, TWC, OFC and OFL — Peruvian and Latin American regional promotions with a much shallower flyweight pool — and his single best win is a decision over an unbeaten countryman. There is no data source in which those two schedules are comparable, and no rating figure of any kind is used or implied anywhere on this page; the gap is described in wins, opponents and promotions only.

Then there is the density problem, which is the same record on two very different clocks. Both men are 9-0. Hasan needed 3.7 years; Rojas needed 8.1. Hasan has fought four times in the last two years; Rojas three, with a three-year gap from September 2019 to October 2022 sitting in the middle of his career. Fight frequency is one of the more reliable soft predictors at the regional-to-UFC transition, because it proxies for competitive rhythm, weight-management habit and the accumulation of high-pressure reps. Rojas's first full three-round fight since 2018 happened five weeks ago — genuinely useful conditioning currency, and also a reminder of how rarely he has needed it. Hasan, by contrast, has finished a man in Round 4 of a five-round championship fight and has never had a competitive layoff longer than seven months since turning professional. One of these two is about to lose for the first time in his professional life, and there is no tape anywhere showing how either responds to adversity.

Hasan vs Rojas opens the Shanghai card's flyweight business — two unbeaten fighters, zero Octagon minutes between them.

Path to Victory

Bilal Hasan

Every minute spent at range is a Hasan minute. Keep a 5'5" puncher at the end of 70 inches of reach, tax the entries with kicks and elbows, and take the back if he overextends.

Why they win

Reach and range architecture

70 inches on a 5'7" frame against a 5'5" puncher, with a switch stance that lets him rebuild distance from either lead. Rojas has to travel to do damage; Hasan does not.

Taekwondo tier separation

Three international gold medals and a former world No. 2 junior ranking. Spinning heel kicks, linear kicks and switch entries are not something regional flyweight power punchers have solved.

Finishing diversity across four tools

Punches, a spinning heel kick at R2 0:23, elbows praised on the DWCS broadcast, and a title-winning rear-naked choke — across Rounds 1, 2 and 4. Rojas has punches, one knee and one body kick, all inside two rounds.

Level of competition

A CFFC title with three defences and a 45-second erasure of a 9-1 international prospect at −5000, against a Peruvian regional ledger whose best win is a countryman.

Championship-round proof

The Eastman R4 1:46 TKO in a five-round fight is the only deep-water finish in the bout. Rojas has never been past Round 3, and only twice past Round 2.

The best grappling coaching at 125

Weekly work with Demetrious Johnson, who has publicly identified him as a potential future of the weight class. Against a man whose takedown defence is described as "good balance," that is a live exploitable seam.

The gameplan

1
Own the outside from minute one
Long kicks, front kicks to the body and jabs to hold Rojas at 70 inches — never let a 5'5" puncher set his feet in punching range for free.
2
Switch stances constantly
Changing leads scrambles a single-shot counter puncher's timing and opens the spinning and linear kick angles that a taekwondo base makes automatic.
3
Punish the entries
Rojas walks in to land. The elbow and the check-hook off the switch are the tools that make every entry expensive.
4
Do not stand square on the fence
If Rojas gets a pin, frame, underhook and circle out immediately — the cage is his only sustained scoring range.
5
If Rojas is hurt or overextends, take the back and finish
The Leon rear-naked choke is on tape for a reason: he has the mechanism, and Rojas has no submission-defence record whatsoever.

Path to Victory

Nilson Rojas

One clean right hand or left hook inside the first ten minutes, on a chin no opponent has ever properly examined, against a man who made 125 lbs eighteen days ago.

Why they win

One-shot power that is rare at 125

The one attribute in his profile that transfers cleanly from regional to UFC level regardless of opposition quality — seven strike-based knockouts, four of them in Round 1.

The eighteen-day turnaround

Hasan is cutting to 125 for the second time in under three weeks, then flying to Shanghai across twelve time zones. This is the underdog's structural gift and it should not be dismissed.

Fence and clinch work

Pinning opponents on the cage and unloading combinations is his most organised skill, and it is the exact range where Hasan's kicks and 70 inches of reach stop mattering.

Ground-and-pound from top

If he drops Hasan he has a proven mechanism to finish there. Hasan has never been hurt, but he has also never been tested by anyone who hits like this.

The freshest three-round evidence in the fight

A full-distance unanimous decision over an undefeated Gonzalo Hanampa five weeks ago. Whatever else is thin about his profile, his current fifteen-minute conditioning is documented.

Zero tape at UFC level for either camp

Rojas has never fought outside Peru's regional circuit and his bouts are sparsely indexed — one of his nine is not found anywhere. He is a genuinely unfamiliar opponent, and one-shot power rewards being underestimated.

The gameplan

1
Pressure relentlessly from the opening bell
Every second at range is a losing second. Force Hasan to fight going backward with his hips against the fence.
2
Attack the body and the legs on the way in
Slow a man who cut weight eighteen days ago and make the turnaround the story of Round 2.
3
Land the right hand or left hook in the first ten minutes
Four of his knockouts came in Round 1. His entire realistic win condition is a clean connection before Round 3.
4
Clinch and knee at every opportunity
The Alvarez KO by knee is proof the tool finishes, and the clinch is the only place a two-inch height deficit works for him.
5
If he drops Hasan, follow to top and unload
Ground-and-pound is his second finishing mechanism and he should not hesitate to spend the position.

Danger Zone

How Bilal Hasan loses

The turnaround bill comes due: a bad second cut leaves him flat, and Rojas's right hand finds a chin that has never been properly tested — a Round-1 or Round-2 knockout on his UFC debut, in the exact fight he was a heavy favourite to win.
He respects the power too much, fights on the back foot at range without committing, and lets Rojas bank fence-pressure minutes and clinch work into a close, ugly decision he never made his own.
He gets drawn into the phone booth — Rojas pins him on the cage, and 70 inches of reach, spinning kicks and switch entries all become dead weight for fifteen minutes.

Danger Zone

How Nilson Rojas loses

He never closes the distance. Kicks and elbows tax him from the outside for three rounds, the right hand never gets to launch, and he loses 30-27 on all three cards in his UFC debut.
He gets finished early by a technique he has never faced — a spinning heel kick or an elbow from a switch-stance angle, the Romano pattern at R2 0:23.
He overcommits on a single power shot, gets taken down or drops, and Hasan takes the back and finishes it exactly the way he won the CFFC title against Jose Leon.

The fight's defining structural variable

The Eighteen-Day Clock

Hasan knocked out Mridul Saikia on August 11 and fights on August 29 — a second cut to 125 lbs inside three weeks plus a twelve-hour time-zone inversion. The offsetting fact is that the DWCS fight lasted 45 seconds, so there is effectively no accumulated damage. The risk mechanism is rehydration and cut recovery rather than fatigue, which means it shows as a soft chin in Rounds 1 and 2, not as gassing in Round 3.

18 days

between a DWCS knockout and a UFC debut

The density problem

Nine Wins, Two Very Different Clocks

Both men are 9-0 and the record column is a mirror. Hasan reached nine wins in 3.7 years with four fights in the last twenty-four months; Rojas needed 8.1 years and has a three-year competitive gap from September 2019 to October 2022 inside his career. Fight frequency proxies for competitive rhythm, weight-management habit and high-pressure reps — and it is the one place the mirror breaks.

3.7 vs 8.1

years taken to reach the same 9-0 record

Shape, not count

Seven Knockouts Apiece Is a Trap

The method columns are nearly identical. The difference is that Hasan finishes with kicks, elbows, punches and a choke across Rounds 1, 2 and 4, including in a five-round championship fight, while every stoppage Rojas has ever recorded landed in Round 1 or Round 2 and came from punches, one knee and one body kick.

The only external benchmark on Rojas

The Kevin Borjas Thread

Rojas's amateur career ended with a loss to Kevin Borjas — who fights on this same Shanghai card with six UFC bouts already behind him. It is not a professional result and it does not touch the 9-0, but it is the one occasion where a name on his ledger can be measured against a known UFC quantity, and he came out on the wrong side of it. It also frames the fight generously in one respect: Peru's flyweight pipeline is producing UFC fighters, and Rojas is the second of them on this card.

Why the uncertainty band is unusually wide

Two Empty Columns

There is no UFC rate line, no round-by-round row and no division rank for either fighter, because neither has fought in the Octagon and neither has a UFC.com athlete page. Rojas additionally has no indexed advanced statistics at regional level — no strike-attempt, accuracy or control-time data for any of his nine bouts — and one of those nine bouts is not found in any database at all. The direction of this lean rests on well-sourced regional evidence; the magnitude rests on nothing measurable.

The Five-Round Clock

Bilal Hasan danger windowNilson Rojas danger windowNeutral / contested

R1 · 0:00–5:00Maximum variance for both

Rojas's knockout equity is more concentrated here than anywhere else on the clock — two of his knockouts landed inside 1:50 and two more at 4:25 and 4:30. Hasan's is equally live: four Round-1 finishes, most recently in 45 seconds. This is the round Rojas must win, or at least survive without falling behind.

Critical Insight
The clock runs one way in this fight. Rojas's win equity is almost entirely front-loaded — four Round-1 knockouts and nothing at all after Round 2 — while Hasan finishes in Rounds 1, 2 and 4, carries a submission mechanism, and wins the technical argument the longer it goes. The longer this fight lasts, the more monotonically it favours the IndoNinja. The single caveat is the one thing that does not appear anywhere in the finish log: an eighteen-day turnaround and a second weight cut are exactly the kind of thing that show up in minute twelve, not minute one.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things

Both men are 9-0 and both are making their UFC debut, so the record column is a mirror. The fork is who those nine wins came against and how recently: Hasan needed 3.7 years, a CFFC title and three defences, and a 45-second finish of a 9-1 prospect at −5000 on the Contender Series; Rojas needed 8.1 years on the Peruvian regional circuit with a three-year gap inside it.

There is no UFC rate line, no round-by-round data and no division rank for either fighter — every rate cell on this page reads 0.00 and every composite is an explicit estimate from regional tape. This bout is flagged high-risk for exactly that reason.

Model: Bilal Hasan 68% / Nilson Rojas 32%, conviction 4/10. The most underpriced outcome is Hasan by submission at 9% — a man who won a regional title by rear-naked choke, against a fighter with zero submission wins in nine professional fights.

100 Simulated Fights

Hasan KO/TKO — 31%Hasan Decision — 28%Hasan Submission — 9%Rojas KO/TKO — 18%Rojas Decision — 13%Rojas Submission — 1%

Each square = 1 simulated fight. Bilal Hasan gold · Nilson Rojas orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Range control

Hasan's 70-inch reach, switch stance and taekwondo kicking against a 5'5" pressure puncher who must travel to score. In the branches where he establishes the outside immediately, his knockout bucket — the largest single outcome on the page at 31 of 100 — is where most of them end.

Rojas's one-shot power

Seven strike-based knockouts, four of them in Round 1, against a chin that has never been meaningfully tested. This is the underdog's entire realistic path and it is worth 18 of 100 on its own, front-loaded almost entirely into the first ten minutes.

The eighteen-day turnaround

A second cut to 125 in under three weeks plus a twelve-hour time-zone shift, offset by a 45-second last fight and near-zero accumulated damage. It costs the favourite roughly five to seven points of win probability, expressed as early-round vulnerability rather than a late fade.

Level of competition and grappling asymmetry

A CFFC champion with three defences and a −5000 DWCS blowout against a Peruvian regional ledger — and a title-winning rear-naked choke plus Demetrious Johnson's coaching against a fighter with zero career submission wins and no submission-defence record anywhere.

Double-debut variance

Neither man has a single verified Octagon minute. First-fight nerves, cage size and UFC officiating are unmodelled for both, and Rojas has no indexed advanced statistics even at regional level, so the distribution is deliberately wider than the composite gap alone would produce.

Fight Scripts

of simulations

The Range Clinic

Hasan holds the outside from the opening bell, taxes every entry with kicks and elbows, and simply out-classes a shorter man across fifteen minutes for a clear decision. This is the outcome a flyweight debut between two unbeaten regional finishers most often actually produces, and it is deliberately priced high for a fighter with one career decision win.

Scripted outcomes for Bilal Hasan vs Nilson Rojas — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Bilal Hasan win probability

31%

28%

KO/TKODECSUB

The largest single bucket, and correctly so: four Round-1 and three Round-2 stoppages, a 45-second finish of a 9-1 opponent, and four distinct finishing tools — punches, a spinning heel kick, elbows and a body attack — against a shorter man who must walk into range to score.
Deliberately high for a fighter with one career decision win. Both men are UFC debutants at flyweight, where finish rates run well below regional norms, and Rojas has just proven he can absorb fifteen minutes. A clear-but-uneventful 30-27 is a very live outcome.
The most underpriced outcome in the fight. He won a regional title by rear-naked choke over Jose Leon, trains grappling weekly with a former UFC flyweight champion, and Rojas has zero submission wins and no submission-defence record across nine professional fights.

Nilson Rojas win probability

18%

13%

KO/TKODECSUB

His entire realistic path, front-loaded into Rounds 1 and 2. Genuine one-shot flyweight power, plus an untested chin across the cage, plus an eighteen-day turnaround, is a real 18% — not a courtesy figure.
He can win rounds with fence pressure and clinch volume if Hasan fights passively at range, and the Hanampa decision five weeks ago is proof of concept. It still asks him to win a fifteen-minute technical argument he has only made twice in eight years.
Nominal. Nine professional fights, no submission wins, no submission-grappling reputation at any level. Non-zero only because top-position ground-and-pound occasionally produces a choke.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round

Bilal

30-27 Hasan

Range, kicks and switch entries run unopposed for fifteen minutes

The most likely card in a fight that reaches them

29-28 Hasan

Rojas banks one fence-pressure round against a man on an eighteen-day turnaround

The competitive version, and entirely live

29-28 Rojas

The pressure works, the cut tells late, and the shorter man wins the clinch argument

His only realistic path to the cards — 13 of 100 sims

Moneyline

Bilal Hasan

Not posted

Nilson Rojas

Not posted

No sportsbook has published a line on this bout and none is invented here. The model's fair, no-vig prices from the 68-32 split are Bilal Hasan −213 and Nilson Rojas +213. The props table below is empty for the same reason: nothing on this page is a market price. Our model's own percentages are the fight not going the distance 59% and going the distance 41%; Hasan by KO/TKO 31%, inside the distance 40%, by decision 28%; Rojas by KO/TKO 18%, inside the distance 19%, by decision 13%; and by finishing round, roughly 24% in Round 1, 20% in Round 2 and 15% in Round 3. Live odds appear in the hero above once the books post the Shanghai card.

Props: model vs market

Prop	Odds	Implied %	Model %	Fair	Edge	Verdict

Best Value
Hasan by submission at 9% is the structurally underpriced outcome — a man who won a regional title by rear-naked choke and trains weekly with Demetrious Johnson, facing a fighter with zero submission wins in nine professional fights and no submission-defence record anywhere; the model's fair price on it is roughly +1011. The chalk prop is Hasan inside the distance at 40%. Rojas by KO/TKO at 18% is the honest underdog flier: genuine one-shot flyweight power, an untested chin across the cage and an eighteen-day turnaround, so do not fade it to zero. Avoid Rojas by decision as a standalone — it requires him to win a fifteen-minute technical argument he has only successfully made twice in eight years.

Conviction

4/10

A clear directional lean built on zero verified Octagon data for either fighter. The ten-point composite gap is real and rests on well-sourced regional evidence — competition faced, activity, finishing diversity, championship-round tape — but every rate cell in this analysis is empty, neither man has been tested at UFC level, and Hasan carries an eighteen-day turnaround into his debut. We are confident in the direction and deliberately unconfident in the magnitude. This bout is flagged high-risk on the card. Lean: Bilal Hasan.

What backs the lean

Level of competition — CFFC champion with three title defences and a 45-second finish of a 9-1 prospect at −5000, against a Peruvian regional ledger with no comparable scalp.
Range architecture — 5'7", 70-inch reach, switch stance and an international-medal taekwondo base against a 5'5" single-shot puncher who must close ground to score.
Finishing diversity — punches, spinning heel kick, elbows and a title-winning rear-naked choke across Rounds 1, 2 and 4; Rojas has never finished anyone past Round 2.
Championship-round evidence — the Eastman R4 1:46 TKO is the only deep-water finish in the fight.
Grappling asymmetry — a submission mechanism and Demetrious Johnson's coaching against a fighter with zero career submissions and balance-based takedown defence.
Activity — nine wins in 3.7 years against nine in 8.1, with a three-year competitive gap inside the latter.

What limits it

The eighteen-day turnaround — a second cut to 125 inside three weeks plus twelve time zones is the single most plausible mechanism for an upset.
One-shot power that is rare at flyweight, against a chin that has literally never been tested by anyone of consequence.
Both men are debutants — there is no UFC rate line, no round-by-round data and no Octagon sample for either, so the entire projection rests on regional tape.
Rojas's freshest evidence is his best evidence — a full-distance unanimous decision over an undefeated opponent five weeks ago.
Fence and clinch work is a genuine structural counter to everything Hasan's game is built on, and it is the one range where the shorter man wins.
9-0 against 9-0 — one of these men is about to lose for the first time in his professional life, and there is no tape anywhere showing how either responds to adversity.

Final Assessment

In roughly 68 of 100 simulations, Bilal "The IndoNinja" Hasan wins his UFC debut — most often by finding the finish his entire career has been built on (31%), with kicks, elbows and switch-stance angles taxing a shorter man who has to walk through 70 inches of reach to do anything; frequently by simply out-classing Rojas at range across three rounds for a clear decision (28%), which is the outcome a flyweight debut between two unbeaten regional finishers most often actually produces; and in a meaningfully underpriced share of them by taking the back and choking him out the way he won the CFFC title from Jose Leon (9%).

In the other 32, Nilson "El Rayo" Rojas makes the eighteen-day turnaround the story — most often by closing the distance and landing the right hand or left hook inside the first ten minutes, the way he ended Fierro, Alvarez, Rocha and Fernandes (18%), against a chin no opponent has ever properly examined; sometimes by winning the fence-and-clinch argument for fifteen minutes against a fighter cutting to 125 for the second time in three weeks, exactly as he did against Hanampa five weeks ago (13%); and only nominally on the mat (1%), where nine professional fights have produced no submissions at all.

The data gives Hasan the reach, the youth, the schedule, the activity, the finishing diversity and the only championship-round tape in the fight; it gives Rojas one-shot power that is rare at 125, the fence range where reach stops mattering, and an opponent who fought eighteen days ago and had to make weight twice. On August 29 in Shanghai, we take the IndoNinja clearly but not confidently — and we treat El Rayo's right hand as live in every one of the first ten minutes.

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