André Lima vs Namsrai Batbayar
Flyweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song
Saturday, August 29, 2026 • SPD Bank Oriental Sports Center, Shanghai
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
André Lima
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Namsrai Batbayar
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - André Lima
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-20 | Kevin Borjas | L | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-03-15 | Daniel Barez | W | Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) (R3, 3:05) |
| 2024-09-07 | Felipe dos Santos | W | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-06-01 | Mitch Raposo | W | Decision (Split) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-03-23 | Igor Severino | W | DQ (R2, 2:52) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Namsrai Batbayar
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | Shuai Yin | W | TKO (Knee/Punches) (R1, 1:48) |
| 2025-08-22 | Agulali | W | Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) (R1, 4:45) |
| 2025-05-22 | Wataru Yamauchi | W | KO (Punch) (R2, 0:46) |
| 2024-05-11 | Sarvarbek Kenzhaev | W | TKO (Punches) (R1, 4:07) |
| 2024-03-22 | Jinbo Zou | W | Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) (R1, 2:25) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Average of Striking Composite (55 vs 50) and Grappling Composite (47 vs 53) — Lima's scores are grounded in his corrected, post-Borjas UFC rates; Batbayar's are estimates grounded in a thin 🔴 debut / Road to UFC sample. Lima now leads only on striking — Batbayar's real TD defense (100%) and sub rate edge him out on grappling composite.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 André Lima Key Advantages
Lima is not a data-void debutant — he has real, corrected UFC rates across all 5 Octagon bouts: 1.11 takedowns per 15, 76% takedown defense, and 0.93 submissions per 15. His takedown accuracy has since been corrected down to 10%, so offensive wrestling is no longer his weapon — but he is hard to put down himself, and his lone UFC finish (Barez, RNC) proves the submission threat is live off scrambles even without a functioning double-leg.
Lima has already navigated full UFC three-rounders and proven he can win on the scorecards or finish late (Barez R3). His corrected SLpM 3.94 with 57% accuracy and 59% strike defense is a competent, if unspectacular, pressure profile. Batbayar's finishing tape is exciting and now backed by real Road to UFC numbers, but it has not been stress-tested against a fighter who already lives in this cage — or against opposition with Lima's 59% strike defense.
At 5'7" against a 5'6" Mongolian prospect, Lima's height edge is real but thin — a near-mirror of Batbayar's own 1-inch reach advantage. Neither man owns a clean frame mismatch. With Lima's takedown accuracy corrected to just 10%, whatever edge remains matters more for controlling range and denying Batbayar's entries than for chaining offensive takedowns — his composites (55 striking / 47 grappling) now trail Batbayar's grappling composite (53), a real shift from the page's earlier numbers.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Batbayar's Road to UFC run is defined by early finishes — knees, punches, and chokes. If Lima enters carelessly or gets drawn into a wild pocket exchange, one clean counter can flip a measured grappling favorite into an early hole. Debut chaos cuts both ways.
Lima's only pro loss is a recent unanimous decision to Kevin Borjas. If that fight drained confidence or exposed pace issues against aggressive pressure, a hungry Mongolian finisher can steal rounds early and force Lima to chase — the exact opposite of his preferred control script.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Close the distance behind the jab and use the frame to control range rather than banking on clean takedowns — his corrected 10% TD accuracy means shots should be opportunistic, not the primary gameplan. Look for scrambles and back-takes off exchanges, the same path that produced the Barez RNC, and lean on 76% takedown defense to stay out of danger himself.
Survive Batbayar's first-round finishing urgency, then bank control and output across R2–R3 where Lima's UFC cardio sample is proven. If the finish is not there, the decision path is live — Lima has multiple octagon decision wins; Batbayar has essentially none on tape.
🚀 Namsrai Batbayar Key Advantages
Batbayar has never needed a decision — knees, punches, and rear-naked chokes defined his Road to UFC run, including a highlight knee stoppage of Shuai Yin, and his tracked RTU numbers (4.44 SLpM, 0.95 SubPer15, 100% TD defense) back that finishing profile up with real data, not just tape. His 47% live equity is almost entirely finish-driven.
A six-fight win streak and tournament confidence give Batbayar the psychological "nothing to lose" posture. Lima is the known quantity coming off his first career loss; Batbayar is the volatile prospect whose ceiling is still unlabeled — and, per the corrected rate stats, is now a live contender on the numbers too, not just the tape.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Lima doesn't need clean takedowns to win rounds — his 59% strike defense and championship-rounds experience let him out-point Batbayar at range and deny the highlight exchange. Batbayar's finishing windows never open, and a prospect who has never won a decision has no fallback once the fight becomes a patient, positional 15 minutes.
Official UFC pressure is a different animal than Road to UFC finishes. If Batbayar burns his gas tank hunting early knockouts and cannot finish, Lima's proven 15-minute pace takes over in Rounds 2–3 and banks a comfortable decision.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Make it ugly and fast — blitz entries, knees in the clinch, and scramble-heavy exchanges before Lima settles into control. Batbayar's best path is not a 15-minute technical fight; it is the same early finish pattern that carried his tournament run.
Lima's takedown accuracy has been corrected down to 10%, so his clean shots are not the real threat — respect the occasional entry, but keep the fight standing and look for the RNC or short-range KO if Lima overcommits. If the fight stays upright and chaotic, Batbayar's finishing instincts and real 4.44 SLpM output matter more than Lima's diminished grappling case.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
⚖️Asymmetric Information (Read This First)
This is no longer a dual data-void bout, and it is no longer a clean-cut favorite either. André Lima's UFC rates — recalculated live across all 5 Octagon bouts including his June 2026 loss to Kevin Borjas — now read SLpM 3.94, 57% accuracy, 59% strike defense, 2.66 absorbed/min, 1.11 TD/15, just 10% takedown accuracy (76% takedown defense), and 0.93 SubPer15. Namsrai Batbayar is no longer a zero-data debutant either: ufc.com's own Road to UFC aggregate gives him real, labeled numbers (4.44 SLpM, 45% accuracy, 48% defense, 2.85 TD/15, 100% TD defense, 0.95 SubPer15) from a small, pre-Octagon sample. The lean is now Lima's deeper experience and decision equity versus Batbayar's finishing ceiling and now-credible output — much closer than the page's original grappling-driven case.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Lima (11-1) is a well-rounded fighter who can win decisions or finish late — the Barez rear-naked choke is the clearest finishing proof — but he is no longer the offensive grappler his original 75% takedown accuracy suggested; that number is now 10%. Batbayar (10-1) is the opposite archetype: 100% finish rate, tournament momentum, and real Road to UFC numbers behind it. On composites Lima leads striking (55 vs 50) but now trails on grappling (47 vs 53) — Batbayar's 100% takedown defense and real sub rate outscore Lima's corrected numbers. What keeps this from tilting further is Lima's deeper level of opposition and proven championship- rounds pace.
🧩The Two Numbers That Carry the Fight
Lima's 76% takedown defense plus his proven, if now modest, decision equity are the quantitative spine of the pick — his offensive grappling case (once quoted at 75% accuracy) has been corrected to just 10% and no longer carries the argument. Batbayar's counter-numbers are real too: 4.44 SLpM, 0.95 SubPer15, and a perfect finishing resume. Line those up and the night splits close to even — if Lima survives the early window and grinds into deep water, he banks the favorite path; if Batbayar forces chaos in Round 1, the underdog's 47% is very live.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely single outcome is Lima by decision (23%) — experience and proven 15-minute pace, no longer takedown-driven control — with submission (16%) and KO/TKO (14%) behind. Batbayar's 47% is finish-heavy: KO/TKO (23%) and submission (15%), with only a thin decision path (9%). Conviction sits at 4/10: Lima's corrected metrics are real but no longer decisive, and debut finishing prospects are exactly the profile that punches holes in thin favorites.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
DISCIPLINED PLAY
Model: 23% | Fair: +335
LIVE-DOG LOTTERY
Model: 23% | Fair: +335
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 53% | Fair: -113
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Corrected grappling case – Lima's takedown accuracy has been corrected from a stale 75% down to 10%; his edge is now experience and decision equity, not offensive grappling.
- • Decision is still Lima's best path – he has multiple UFC decision wins; Batbayar has almost no decision equity on tape.
- • Both paths are finish-heavy now – Batbayar's 47% is concentrated in early KO/TKO and submission, and Lima's own decision path has shrunk; keep stakes thin (4/10 conviction).
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - André Lima
Experience and pace across 15 minutes — his most likely path
Accumulated pressure stoppage off his 3.94 SLpM output
0.93 SubPer15 threat — RNC path already proven vs Barez
💥Outcome Distribution - Namsrai Batbayar
Road to UFC knee/punch pattern, now backed by real 4.44 SLpM
Thin path — almost no decision wins on his résumé
Scramble RNC / choke finishes, backed by real 0.95 SubPer15
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Namsrai Batbayar
- • Force chaos early: Blitz, knees, and scrambles before Lima settles into control.
- • Finish or fade: His résumé is finish-or-bust — decision equity is thin.
- • Stuff the first shot: Deny Lima's opening takedown and hunt the scramble RNC/KO.
🎯Progressive Dominance - André Lima
- • Control range, not takedowns: His TD accuracy has been corrected to 10% — lean on the jab and the frame, not the shot.
- • Survive R1: Respect Batbayar's finishing blitz and real 4.44 SLpM output.
- • Win the long fight: UFC cardio and decision wins make R2–R3 his best window.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Thin lean — Lima's grappling case was corrected down; Batbayar's real numbers narrowed the gap
✅Supporting Factors
- • Real UFC rates: 76% TDDef, 0.93 SubPer15, SLpM 3.94
- • Proven octagon wins over Barez, dos Santos, Raposo
- • Taller frame (+1") for clinch/range control
- • Decision equity Batbayar essentially lacks
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Lima's takedown accuracy corrected from 75% to 10%
- • Batbayar's real RTU numbers now edge Lima on grappling composite
- • 100% finish rate — early KO/sub chaos is live
- • Lima coming off his first career loss, to Borjas
🏁Executive Summary
Card update: this bout replaces the previous Maimaitijiang vs Vines middleweight booking with André Lima vs Namsrai Batbayar at flyweight. Lima is a thin favorite — a Brazilian pressure fighter with real, corrected UFC career-rate metrics and wins over Daniel Barez, Felipe dos Santos, and Mitch Raposo, but his once-touted 75% takedown accuracy has been corrected to 10% after his June 2026 loss to Kevin Borjas. Batbayar is the Mongolian "Steppe Warrior," a Road to UFC finishing prospect (10-1, 100% finish rate) stepping into his official UFC debut with real, labeled Road to UFC numbers (4.44 SLpM, 100% takedown defense) behind him. The stylistic clash is experience versus chaos: Lima wants to survive Round 1 and grind into deep water; Batbayar wants an early highlight finish.
Prediction: André Lima wins ~53% of simulations — most likely by decision (23%), with submission (16%) and KO/TKO (14%) behind. Namsrai Batbayar's live 47% is finish-heavy: KO/TKO (23%) and submission (15%), plus a thin 9% decision path. Conviction is thin (4/10): Lima's octagon sample is real but his grappling-offense case was refuted, and debuting Road to UFC finishers are exactly the profile that can ruin a metrics-based favorite in Round 1.