Levi Rodrigues Jr. vs Ce Liu – UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song Fight Analytics & Prediction

LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song

Levi Rodrigues Jr.

“Baby Monster”

5W1L

Muay Thai KO Puncher

…

Ce Liu

3W1L

K-1 Calf-Kick Striker

…

A 0-1 KO artist walks into a home-crowd kickboxer with five extra inches

Light HeavyweightSPD Bank Oriental Sports Center, Shanghai, ChinaAugust 29, 2026Standard 30ft Octagon

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

This is a 🔴 HIGH-risk, web-only projection and it should be read as one. Junior Tafa is out; Levi Rodrigues Jr. "Baby Monster" is in — a 29-year-old São Paulo Muay Thai black belt, 5-1-0 with one no-contest, amateur 7-0 all by knockout, and every one of his five professional wins a KO/TKO. His UFC ledger is a single loss: Felipe Franco stopped him with punches at R2 1:40 on July 18, 2026 in Oklahoma City. UFC.com's athlete bio still prints that bout as a win; Sherdog, Cageside Press and Wikipedia all record the TKO, and we display the loss. Ce Liu remains the same fighter he was opposite Tafa — 3-1-0, all four professional MMA fights ending by TKO, zero Octagon bouts, a K-1 kickboxing résumé, and a home crowd in Shanghai. We publish Rodrigues Jr. 46% / Liu 54% at conviction 2/10.

Levi Rodrigues Jr.

Attribute

Ce Liu

29 (DOB Oct 15, 1996)

Age

29 (DOB Sep 4, 1996)

6'0" (72") — UFC.com; Sherdog 6'2"

Height

+5" Liu6'5" (77")

76.5"

Reach

+1.5" Liu78"

43"

Leg Reach

Not recorded

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

Inside Muay Thai / Rasteira Fight Team, São Paulo

Team

Tangshan Buntai / CFP (Wei Rui)

Muay Thai black belt, BJJ blue — no wrestling offense

Striking Base

K-1 / Wushu Sanda — 2024 K-1 Fighter of the Year

UFC 0-1 — 1 prior bout (loss)

Octagon Status

UFC debut — 0 prior bouts

Baby Monster

Nickname

—

Muay Thai KO puncher, 100% KO wins, no wrestling offense

Fighting Style

K-1 kickboxer / calf-kick striker

The length belongs entirely to the home fighter. Ce Liu is five inches taller on the UFC.com listing (6'5" vs 6'0") and carries a 78" reach against Rodrigues Jr.'s 76.5" — a modest +1.5" in the arms, a decisive +5" in the frame. Sherdog lists Rodrigues Jr. at 6'2", which would shrink the height gap to three inches; we print UFC.com's 72" and flag the conflict rather than average it away. Both men are 29, both orthodox, both listed at 205. Liu's leg reach is not recorded; Rodrigues Jr.'s is 43". In a three-round light-heavyweight fight between two finish-first strikers who do not wrestle, five inches of height is the single cleanest physical fact on the page — jab lane, teep, and calf kick from a range the shorter man has to travel to punch through.

Venue Factor
SPD Bank Oriental Sports Center is not neutral ground. Liu is from Fushun, Liaoning, fighting on a China-built card in Shanghai; Rodrigues Jr. is a São Paulo import walking in 0-1 after a second-round knockout six weeks ago. Home-crowd noise does not add inches, but it does add a debutant's composure tax on the visitor and a showcase incentive on the local. The real venue effect is that the man with the length also owns the building.

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Levi Rodrigues Jr.

Pro Record

5-1-0 (1 NC)

UFC Record

0-1 — TKO loss to Felipe Franco, R2 1:40, Jul 18, 2026

Streak

L1 — stopped by punches in his UFC debut

Finish Rate

100% (5 of 5 wins) — all KO/TKO; amateur 7-0 all KOs

Avg Fight Time

5:00 (UFC.com — 1 bout + DWCS, flagged)

Chin · Proven VulnerableSOS · RegionalMuay Thai KO puncher

A compressed knockout résumé with one hard Octagon data point, and it went the wrong way. Rodrigues Jr. is a Muay Thai black belt and BJJ blue out of Inside Muay Thai / Rasteira Fight Team in São Paulo. He ran 7-0 as an amateur, all knockouts, then 5-0 as a professional by KO/TKO: Cristiano Vicente (KO R1, DC Pro), Leonardo Genuino (TKO R1, LFA 146), Jose Carlos Lima (TKO R2, LFA 159), Jhonny Pereira (TKO R3, MMAU1), Alan Ribeiro (KO R1, LFA 216). A Contender Series bout against Freddy Vidal on October 14, 2025 (DWCS 9.10) was overturned to a no-contest. His UFC debut, July 18, 2026 in Oklahoma City, ended in a Felipe Franco TKO by punches at R2 1:40. UFC.com's bio still lists that result as a win; we do not. There is no wrestling offense on the ledger — TD/15 0.00, TDAcc 0% — and the 29% strike defence on a tiny sample is the scariest published number he carries into Shanghai.

Ce Liu

Pro Record

3-1-0

UFC Record

UFC debut — 0 prior Octagon bouts

Streak

W1 — TKO by punches over Igor Barabanov (WLF W.A.R.S. 94)

Finish Rate

100% (3 of 3 wins) — all KO/TKO; all 4 pro MMA fights ended by TKO

Avg Fight Time

Never past Round 2 in MMA

Chin · Tested — TKO'd once (ground-and-pound)SOS · RegionalK-1 calf-kick striker

A decorated striker with a four-fight MMA sample and a home-crowd debut. Liu Ce (刘策) is 29, 6'5", out of Fushun, Liaoning, based with Tangshan Buntai / CFP under Wei Rui. On the feet his trophy case is the stronger of the two: 2024 K-1 Fighter of the Year, 2024 K-1 Cruiserweight champion, 2023 K-1 30th-Anniversary Openweight Grand Prix winner (three knockouts in one night in Tokyo), kickboxing listed at 18-3 with 14 KOs. His MMA ledger is four fights, all TKOs: Yu Haiming (head kick, R1 1:11), Batjargal Munkh-Erdene (left hooks, R2 1:07), a ground-and-pound TKO loss to Ivan Gnizditskiy (R2 1:55), and a punching TKO of Igor Barabanov (R1 4:59) in May 2026. He has never seen Round 3 of an MMA fight. The calf-kick calling card is documented in K-1, not yet as an MMA finish. Shanghai is the showcase.

Levi Rodrigues Jr.

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Knockdown Exchange

KD dealt vs absorbed

Ce Liu

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Levi Rodrigues Jr.signature weapons

First-Round KnockoutAlan Ribeiro (LFA 216), Leonardo Genuino (LFA 146), Cristiano Vicente (DC Pro) — the amateur ledger was 7-0 all KOs behind them

×3

Late-Round TKOJhonny Pereira, TKO Round 3, MMAU1 — the only Round-3 finish in this matchup

×1

Pocket PowerJose Carlos Lima, TKO Round 2, LFA 159 — Muay Thai hands in close; no wrestling entry behind them

×1

Ce Liusignature weapons

Head-Kick TKOYu Haiming, R1 1:11, WLF W.A.R.S. 64 — length plus kickboxing timing in the opening minutes

×1

Left-Hook AccumulationBatjargal Munkh-Erdene, R2 1:07, WLF W.A.R.S. 65

×1

Calf / Low KickK-1 calling card, not yet an MMA finish — live against a 6'0" orthodox who has to walk forward to punch

×0

Levi Rodrigues Jr.

Felipe Franco

TKO — Punches

RR2 (1:40)

UFC FN: Du Plessis vs Usman — Jul 18, 2026

Freddy Vidal

Overturned — DWCS no-contest

R—

DWCS Season 9, Week 10 — Oct 14, 2025

Alan Ribeiro

RR1

LFA 216

Jhonny Pereira

TKO

RR3

MMAU1

Jose Carlos Lima

TKO

RR2

LFA 159

Pattern

Five professional wins, five knockouts, then the Octagon asked a question he did not answer. The Franco loss at R2 1:40 is the only UFC data point and it is a stoppage — power is live (100% of wins, plus 7-0 amateur KOs, plus a genuine R3 TKO of Pereira), defence is not (29% strike defence on the published line, stopped by punches). The DWCS no-contest against Vidal is a null result, not a win and not a loss. There is no wrestling entry on any of these cards.

Ce Liu

Igor Barabanov

TKO — Punches

RR1 (4:59)

WLF W.A.R.S. 94 — May 23, 2026

Ivan Gnizditskiy

TKO — Ground-and-pound

RR2 (1:55)

Happy Elephant MMA 11 — Oct 12, 2024

Batjargal Munkh-Erdene

TKO — Left hooks

RR2 (1:07)

WLF W.A.R.S. 65 — Jun 28, 2023

Yu Haiming

TKO — Head kick

RR1 (1:11)

WLF W.A.R.S. 64 — May 17, 2023

Pattern

Four fights, four TKOs, zero decisions, zero Round 3s. The wins are standing (head kick, left hooks, punches); the loss is the kickboxer hole (ground-and-pound once it left the feet). The Barabanov finish in May 2026 is recent and first-round. The sample is shallow and the opposition is regional. Kickboxing form is elite and current; MMA form is a four-fight promise with one flashing warning light on the mat — a mat Rodrigues Jr. has no takedown offense to put him on.

Levi Rodrigues Jr.

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Ce Liu

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Critical Insight
Both donuts are 100% KO/TKO because that is the entire professional win column on both sides — Rodrigues Jr. 5-for-5, Liu 3-for-3. Combined they have zero decision wins and zero submission wins. Rodrigues Jr. is the only man here with a Round-3 finish (Pereira, MMAU1); Liu has never reached Round 3. The loss columns are also all TKOs: Franco punches (Rodrigues Jr.), Gnizditskiy ground-and-pound (Liu). Decision probability is structurally low. This is a finish fight, and the method tables do not pretend otherwise.

Cesmall sample

Dead heat on the gauges — 41 to 41 — inside the noise of two flagged, thin-sample strikers. The 54/46 lean is not a composite result. It comes from home soil, +5" of height, a kickboxing résumé against a 0-1 UFC KO artist with 29% strike defence, and a building in Shanghai. Hold it loosely.

Metric	Levi	Ce
Avg Fight Time (UFC.com)	5:00 — 1 bout + DWCSsmall sample	No UFC sample — never past R2 in MMAsmall sample
Strike Defence	29% — flagged small samplesmall sample	Not found — 0 Octagon boutssmall sample
KD Avg (UFC.com)	1.50 — flagged small samplesmall sample	Not foundsmall sample
TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine.	0.00 — no wrestling offensesmall sample	Not found — 0 Octagon boutssmall sample
Prior UFC Bouts	1 (loss)	0 (debut)

Archetype Base Rate

Muay Thai KO Puncher 46%54% K-1 Calf-Kick Striker

No archetype base-rate row — Liu has 0 UFC bouts; Rodrigues Jr. has 1 · No historical archetype win-rate is applied. The 46-54 split is a qualitative lean on home soil, length, and kickboxing pedigree against a 0-1 knockout artist whose published strike defence is 29% on a flagged sample. Rodrigues Jr.'s power keeps him live at 46. Decision is the smallest bucket on the page.

Levi Rodrigues Jr.Ce Liu

Light Heavyweight

· 40 fighters

Stat	Levi	Levi rank	Div avg	Ce rank	Ce
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	2.60 — 1 bout + DWCS, void	—	~4.0–4.5	—	Not found — 0 Octagon bouts
Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise.	51%	—	~45–50%	—	Not found
Str DefStr DefStriking Defense — share of opponents' significant strikes that do NOT land. Higher = harder to hit.	29% — sieve on a tiny sample	—	~52–56%	—	Not found
SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better.	4.60	—	~4.0–4.5	—	Not found
KD AvgKD AvgKnockdown Average — knockdowns scored per 15 minutes. The one-shot power indicator.	1.50 — small-sample spike	—	~0.3–0.4	—	Not found
TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine.	0.00 — no wrestling offense	—	~1.5–2.0	—	Not found
TD Acc	0%	—	~38–42%	—	Not found
TD DefTD DefTakedown Defense — share of opponents' takedown attempts stuffed.	57%	—	~68–74%	—	Not found
Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat.	0.00	—	~0.4–0.6	—	Not found — 0 career submissions
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	5:00 (UFC.com)	—	—	—	Never past R2 in MMA
Prior UFC Bouts	1 (0-1)	—	—	—	0
Height / Reach	72" / 76.5"	—	—	—	77" / 78"

Statistical Verdict
The table is a small-sample warning label with a height row at the bottom. Every rate cell on Rodrigues Jr. is flagged because the denominator is one UFC fight plus DWCS; every rate cell on Liu is flagged because the denominator is zero. What survives is physical and methodological: Liu is five inches taller and an inch-and-a-half longer, Rodrigues Jr. is the only man with an Octagon bout, and that bout ended in a TKO loss. Strike defence at 29% would be catastrophic if it were a real sample; it is one night. We still do not give it to the shorter man walking forward.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

⚠ R1, R2, R3: single-fight sample for Levi Rodrigues Jr.

⚠ R1, R2, R3: single-fight sample for Ce Liu

Control Time per Round (sec)

Levi Rodrigues Jr.

No usable round-by-round table. One UFC bout (Felipe Franco, TKO punches, R2 1:40, July 18, 2026) is not a round-split striking profile, and we will not invent per-round significant-strike, accuracy or control numbers from a 6:40 sample.
What the fight log says without a chart: he was competitive enough to see Round 2 and not competitive enough to finish it. The stoppage is punches, not a leg kick and not a submission.
Career finishes cluster early — three of five wins in Round 1 — with outliers at Round 2 (Lima) and Round 3 (Pereira). Front-loaded, with one late data point.

Ce Liu

No round-by-round row exists. Ce Liu is an Octagon debutant with zero UFC bouts. We do not invent UFC RxR for a fighter who has never fought in the UFC.
From the regional MMA log only: two first-round TKOs (Yu Haiming 1:11, Barabanov 4:59), one second-round TKO win (Munkh-Erdene 1:07), one second-round TKO loss (Gnizditskiy 1:55). Never Round 3.
Kickboxing round splits are a different sport and are not printed here as MMA evidence.

Critical Insight
Both clocks are front-loaded inferences from fight logs, not UFC round-split data. Rodrigues Jr.'s only Octagon night ended in Round 2 by punches; Liu's entire MMA life has ended by Round 2. If the horn sounds for Round 3, both men are in water only Rodrigues Jr. has visited once, and he visited it as a finisher, not as a decision-winner.

Strike Targeting (career avg)

No UFC strike-target data for either fighter — nothing is estimated.

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage. Fighters without UFC samples are omitted rather than shown as 0%.

Range Profile — where the minutes go

Levi · N/ACe · N/A

No UFC range-share data for either fighter — nothing is estimated.

Share of significant-strike volume by range from UFC career data. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much

Open SpaceCe owns it

6'5" / 78" K-1 kicker vs a 6'0" Muay Thai puncher who has to walk forward — range is Liu's entire sport

Pocket / ExchangesLevi owns it

100% KO wins and a Muay Thai black belt; this is the only phase Rodrigues Jr. is built to win, and Liu's job is to never live here

ClinchCe owns it

Five inches of frame is passive resistance; Rodrigues Jr. has no wrestling to convert a clinch into a takedown

GroundEven

Rodrigues Jr. TD/15 0.00; Liu's only loss was ground-and-pound — neither man can put the other here on purpose

Path to Victory

Levi Rodrigues Jr.

Close the five-inch gap, make it a pocket fight, and land the shot Franco proved he can be hit with — before Liu's kicks and length turn it into a range match he cannot win walking forward.

Why they win

100% KO wins, amateur 7-0 all knockouts

Five professional finishes and seven amateur ones. Power is not a projection. It is the entire win column.

The only Octagon minutes in the fight

One UFC bout is a small sample, but it is still one more than Liu has. He has felt four-ounce gloves and a five-minute round in this building's sport.

A genuine Round-3 finish on the résumé

Jhonny Pereira, TKO Round 3. Liu has never been there. If this stays standing and late, Rodrigues Jr. is the only man with a template.

Published knockdown spike — flagged, still loud

UFC.com KD avg 1.50 on a tiny sample. We flag it. We also do not ignore that the rate exists because he hits people.

Punches are live against a debut chin

Liu has never taken a UFC-level shot. Rodrigues Jr. cannot wrestle him, so the path is punches — and punches are the entire win column. A debutant's unproven MMA chin is the underdog's whole thesis.

Muay Thai pocket craft

Black belt, orthodox, walks forward. If he gets inside the 78" reach, the fight becomes the one he has been having since the amateurs.

The gameplan

1
Close distance on a curve, not a straight line
Five inches of height is fatal on a walk-forward. Feint the entry, crash after kicks, do not follow the jab in a straight line.
2
Make it a pocket fight by the second minute
His entire professional life is KO/TKO at close range. Every minute spent at Liu's kick range is a minute he is losing.
3
Check the calf kick or pay for it all night
Liu's A-weapon is the low kick. A 6'0" orthodox coming forward is the textbook calf-kick victim.
4
Hunt the finish early — the Franco loss does not erase the KO column
Three first-round knockouts as a professional. Liu has never been hit by this class of Muay Thai hands in MMA.
5
Do not invent a wrestling gameplan that is not on the tape
TD/15 is 0.00. BJJ blue is a guard, not a takedown entry. Contingency: if Round 1 ends upright and he is already marked up, pressure in Round 2 rather than box at range — Franco showed that the second round is where his defence has cracked, which means it is also where his pressure has to break Liu first.

Path to Victory

Ce Liu

Keep it long. Jab, calf kick, teep, and never give the 0-1 knockout artist the phone-booth exchange his entire career is built for.

Why they win

Five inches of height, plus reach

6'5" vs 6'0" on UFC.com (Sherdog's 6'2" still leaves Liu taller). The jab, the teep, and the calf kick all start from a range Rodrigues Jr. has to pay to enter.

Home soil in Shanghai

Fushun, Liaoning, on a China-built UFC card. Debut nerves still exist; they exist in a building that is cheering for him.

Kickboxing pedigree vs a 0-1 KO artist

2024 K-1 Fighter of the Year, Openweight GP by three KOs in one night, against a man whose last fight was a TKO loss and whose strike defence prints at 29%.

A 29% strike-defence number, however small the sample

Franco walked through him in Round 2. Liu is longer than Franco and kicks. The published defence rate is the ugliest cell on Rodrigues Jr.'s UFC.com page.

The fight stays standing

Rodrigues Jr. has no wrestling offense. Liu's ground-and-pound loss cannot be replayed by this opponent. The bout lives at range, which is Liu's sport.

Early-finish identity that matches the window

Two of three MMA wins in Round 1. He does not need fifteen minutes. He needs the first clean kicking sequence against a man who has to come forward.

The gameplan

1
Fight long from the opening bell
Jab, teep, calf kick, reset. The 0-1 knockout artist only wins this if it becomes a phone booth.
2
Chop the lead leg of a shorter orthodox who has to walk in
The K-1 calf kick is the highest-leverage weapon in the fight even though it has not yet produced an MMA finish for him.
3
Survive the first two minutes without trading on his terms
Rodrigues Jr.'s three R1 KOs are the entire underdog thesis. Hands high, kick from outside, do not brawl the debut.
4
Absolutely avoid the mat — but do not fear a shot that will not come
Gnizditskiy beat him on the ground. Rodrigues Jr. does not take people there. Plant and kick without guarding a takedown that is not in the scouting report.
5
Let Round 2 become a kicking match
Franco already proved Rodrigues Jr. can be stopped in the second. Bank the leg damage, keep the range, and the home crowd does the rest. Contingency: if he is hurt early, clinch and hold — 6'5" of frame is a defensive asset, and Rodrigues Jr. has never had to finish a man who is five inches taller and wrapping him up.

Danger Zone

How Levi Rodrigues Jr. loses

He walks onto the jab and the calf kick for two minutes, the lead leg goes, and a 6'5" home striker finishes a shorter man who never closed the gap.
Franco's tape repeats: he eats punches in Round 2 because the 29% defence sample was not a fluke, and Liu's length makes the pocket further away than Oklahoma City was.
He shoots nothing, because he has nothing to shoot, and loses a range fight on the cards in a building that will not give him the close rounds.

Danger Zone

How Ce Liu loses

Debut jitters, four-ounce gloves, and one Baby Monster overhand — the unproven MMA chin fails the way the Gnizditskiy night failed, except this time it is standing.
Rodrigues Jr. smothers the first kick, crashes the pocket, and the 100% KO column writes another first-round entry before Shanghai has settled.
The occasion swallows him: first Octagon walk, home-crowd coronation pressure, and the composure that held in K-1 cracks before the length can matter.

Same Liu, different opponent, same conviction cap

Tafa Is Out — The Matchup Changed Shape

The original pairing was Junior Tafa, a nine-fight UFC veteran with two documented leg-kick TKO losses. That gave Liu a stylistic key so clean the lean wrote itself. Rodrigues Jr. is not Tafa. He is shorter (72" vs Tafa's 75"), greener (0-1 vs 3-6), and his published strike defence (29%) is worse, but he has not been chopped down by calf kicks on UFC tape. The Liu lean survives on length, home soil and pedigree. It does not survive as a "documented kryptonite" fight. Conviction stays at 2 because the new opponent is a thin-sample knockout artist, not because the calf-kick-vs-Tafa thesis still applies.

Tafa OUT

Rodrigues Jr. in — fight ID 13905 unchanged

Flagged, ugly, and the loudest cell on his UFC.com page

The 29% Defence Number

UFC.com prints Rodrigues Jr. at 29% strike defence off one UFC bout plus DWCS. That is not a career rate. It is also not nothing: Felipe Franco TKO'd him with punches at R2 1:40, and a 6'5" kicker with a home crowd is a harder defensive assignment than a same-night UFC debut in Oklahoma City. We flag every rate. We still treat 29% as a prior that Liu's length will test, not as a number we throw out.

29%

published strike defence — small sample, Franco TKO attached

The fight stays standing in Shanghai

Two Finishers, Zero Wrestling, One Building

Rodrigues Jr. has no takedown offense. Liu's only MMA loss required the ground. Combined they have eight professional MMA fights that all ended by TKO, plus a no-contest. Decision is a live longshot, not a plan. The man who owns range in a standing fight in his own building is the favourite, and the man who owns pocket power is the 46% — because 100% KO wins do not go away when you walk into five extra inches.

We display the loss

UFC.com Still Says Win

The UFC athlete bio for Levi Rodrigues Jr. still lists the Felipe Franco bout as a win. Sherdog, Cageside Press and Wikipedia record a TKO loss, Round 2, 1:40, July 18, 2026, UFC Fight Night Du Plessis vs Usman in Oklahoma City. Record 5-1-0, UFC 0-1. The no-contest against Freddy Vidal (DWCS 9.10, October 14, 2025) is separate and remains a no-contest. We do not launder the debut.

72" on UFC.com, 6'2" on Sherdog, 6'5" on the other side either way

Height Conflict, Length Consensus

If Sherdog is right, Liu's height edge is three inches rather than five. Reach still favours Liu 78" to 76.5". The directional fact does not change: the home fighter is the longer fighter, and the visitor has to travel to punch. We print UFC.com's 72" as the listed number and refuse to invent a compromise height.

The Five-Round Clock

Levi Rodrigues Jr. danger windowCe Liu danger windowNeutral / contested

R1 · 0:00–5:00Highest-variance round in the fight

Rodrigues Jr. has three first-round KOs; Liu has two. Combined 86 of 100 simulations end inside the distance, and a large share of those resolve here. Both men can lose this fight in the first five minutes.

Critical Insight
The clock is violent and short. Round 1 is a coin-flip finishing window. Round 2 is where Rodrigues Jr.'s only UFC night ended, and where Liu's kicks should have compounded. Round 3 is uncharted for Liu and thinly charted for Rodrigues Jr. Plan for a finish. Do not plan for judges.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things

Junior Tafa is out. Levi Rodrigues Jr. (5-1-0, 1 NC, UFC 0-1) replaces him opposite Ce Liu's UFC debut in Shanghai. This is a 🔴 HIGH-risk, web-sourced build at conviction 2/10.

Every UFC.com rate on Rodrigues Jr. is a small-sample flag (1 bout + DWCS). Liu has no Octagon rates. UFC.com still lists the Franco fight as a win; we display the R2 TKO loss. No UFC round-by-round is invented for Liu.

Model: Levi Rodrigues Jr. 46% / Ce Liu 54%. Composites finish 41–41. The lean is home soil, +5" height, and kickboxing pedigree against a 0-1 KO artist with 29% published strike defence. Power keeps the underdog live. Decision is low.

100 Simulated Fights

Rodrigues Jr. Decision — 6%Rodrigues Jr. Submission — 1%Rodrigues Jr. KO/TKO — 39%Liu KO/TKO — 45%Liu Decision — 8%Liu Submission — 1%

Each square = 1 simulated fight. Levi Rodrigues Jr. gold · Ce Liu orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Home soil plus five inches of height

The two cleanest edges on the page and they sit on the same side. Liu is the longer fighter in his own building. That is the spine of 54.

Rodrigues Jr.'s 100% KO column against a debut chin

Five professional knockouts, seven amateur ones, and a man who has never taken a UFC-level punch. The 39% KO bucket is why this is 54/46 and not 65/35.

The 29% strike-defence sample and the Franco TKO

Flagged, one-night, still attached to a real stoppage. Liu's length is a harder look than Franco's if that number is even directionally true.

No wrestling, so Liu's only MMA loss does not replay

Gnizditskiy needed the ground. Rodrigues Jr. cannot take him there. The fight stays in the kickboxer's domain.

Decision is a remainder, not a path

Zero decision wins combined. Distance is 14 of 100 (6 + 8). Do not bet the judges unless the price is a gift.

Fight Scripts

of simulations

The Range Chop

Liu keeps it long, the calf kicks and jab pile up, and a 6'5" home striker finishes a shorter man who never closed the pocket — first or second round, the single largest outcome on the page.

Scripted outcomes for Levi Rodrigues Jr. vs Ce Liu — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Levi Rodrigues Jr. win probability

39%

KO/TKODECSUB

The spine of the underdog case — 5-for-5 professional KOs, 7-0 amateur KOs, and a debutant chin that has never been hit at this level. Close to even with Liu's finish bucket, which is why 46% is live rather than decorative.
Six points, and a bet to avoid. Zero career decision wins. A decision here means fifteen minutes against a longer home fighter in Shanghai.
One point, a scramble token only — BJJ blue, TD/15 0.00, no submission wins. Not a hunted path.

Ce Liu win probability

45%

KO/TKODECSUB

The largest single bucket on the page. Length, calf kicks, home crowd, and a 29% published defence sample on the other side. First-round and second-round TKOs are the natural expression of this matchup.
Eight points — slightly larger than Rodrigues Jr.'s decision bucket because range scoring and a home crowd will not give the visitor the close rounds. Still a remainder. He has zero MMA decisions.
One point, a token flier — zero career submissions. The Gnizditskiy night was him being finished on the ground, not finishing.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round

Levi

29-28 Liu

Rodrigues Jr. takes a close opening round on aggression; length and kicks take the last two

The most likely card in a fight that reaches them

29-28 Rodrigues Jr.

An early knockdown plus a competitive third — his only realistic path to the judges

He has zero career decision wins

30-27 Liu

The pocket never materialises

Live if the height gap plays from the first minute, especially in Shanghai

Moneyline

Levi Rodrigues Jr.

Not posted

Ce Liu

Not posted

No sportsbook line is invented here. The model's fair prices from the 54/46 split are Ce Liu −117 and Levi Rodrigues Jr. +117. Live odds appear in the hero above once the books post the Shanghai card.

Props: model vs market

Prop	Odds	Implied %	Model %	Fair	Edge	Verdict

Best Value
The props table is empty because no market exists; the numbers below are model percentages and the fair prices they imply. Fight does NOT go the distance is the structural chalk at 86% (fair −614) — two 100%-finish strikers, zero decision wins combined, three rounds. The live underdog is Rodrigues Jr. by KO/TKO at 39% (fair +156): a home-crowd K-1 debutant will be overbet relative to a 0-1 Brazilian with a 100% KO column. Liu by KO/TKO at 45% (fair +122) is the natural favourite expression. Avoid both decision props (6% and 8%). Avoid submissions. Fight ends Round 1 is a live violent number; do not pay a short price for it without a posted market to compare.

Conviction

2/10

A 0-1 UFC knockout artist with flagged one-night rates against a UFC debutant with no Octagon numbers at all, on home soil, with a five-inch height gap. Composites tie at 41. The lean is real and soft. Power keeps Rodrigues Jr. at 46. Conviction is a 2 because half of this fight is a guess. Lean: Ce Liu.

What backs the lean

Home crowd in Shanghai on a China-built card — Liu's debut is a showcase, not a road fight.
Five inches of height (72" vs 77" on UFC.com) and a 78" to 76.5" reach edge. Range is Liu's sport.
K-1 pedigree (2024 Fighter of the Year, Openweight GP) against a 0-1 KO artist whose last night was a TKO loss.
Published strike defence 29% on Rodrigues Jr.'s UFC.com line, attached to a real Franco stoppage, even though the sample is flagged.
The fight stays standing: Rodrigues Jr. has no wrestling offense, so Liu's only MMA loss (ground-and-pound) does not replay.
Both men finish; Liu's finishing path (kicks and length) is the more natural one in a large cage against a shorter pressure puncher.

What limits it

Rodrigues Jr. is 5-for-5 by KO/TKO as a professional and 7-0 by KO as an amateur. Power is not theoretical.
Liu has zero UFC bouts and four regional MMA fights. Kickboxing trophies are not Octagon minutes.
Rodrigues Jr. owns the only Round-3 finish in the matchup. Liu has never been past Round 2 in MMA.
The original Tafa stylistic key (documented leg-kick kryptonite) is gone. This is a new opponent.
UFC.com rates for Rodrigues Jr. are a 1-bout-plus-DWCS sample; Liu's rates are zeros. The data cannot carry a confident pick.
Our own composites finish 41 to 41. The 54/46 split is qualitative and should be held loosely.

Final Assessment

In roughly 54 of 100 simulations, Ce Liu keeps Levi Rodrigues Jr. at the end of a 6'5" frame in Shanghai and the night ends the way four of Liu's four MMA fights have ended — by TKO, most often (45%) from kicks and punches at range, occasionally (8%) on the cards in a building that will not gift the visitor the close rounds, with a 1% scramble token behind it. Home soil, length, and a kickboxing résumé against a 0-1 knockout artist with 29% published strike defence are the entire case, and they are enough for a lean without being enough for a confident one.

In the other 46, Baby Monster does what the amateur and professional win columns say he does. He closes the gap, the Muay Thai hands land, and a debut chin that has never been hit at this level fails — 39% KO/TKO, the second-largest bucket on the page, plus 6% decision and a 1% submission token. The Franco loss does not erase five professional knockouts. It does tell you the second round is live for both finishing and being finished.

The gauges cannot separate them (41–41) and we will not pretend they can. UFC.com still calling the Franco fight a win is a data-quality stain we refuse to copy. No round-by-round table is invented for Liu's debut, and Rodrigues Jr.'s one UFC night is a note, not a chart. On August 29 at the SPD Bank Oriental Sports Center we take Ce Liu narrowly, on range and on home soil — and we will not fade Levi Rodrigues Jr. by knockout at plus money, because 100% KO wins are the one number on this page that does not need a small-sample flag.

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