Baisangur Susurkaev vs Djorden Santos
Men's Middleweight Bout • UFC 328
Saturday, May 9, 2026 • Prudential Center, Newark, NJ
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Baisangur Susurkaev
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Djorden Santos
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Baisangur Susurkaev
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-15 | Eric McConico | W | TKO - Right Hook (R3, 1:38) |
| 2025-08-16 | Eric Nolan | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R2, 2:01) |
| 2025-08-12 | Murtaza Talha | W | TKO - Body Kick (R1, 3:04) |
| 2025-02-21 | Irakli Kuchukhidze | W | TKO (R2, 2:12) |
| 2024-11-22 | Shane Sobnosky | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Djorden Santos
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-18 | Danny Barlow | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-03-08 | Ozzy Diaz | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-09-03 | Will Currie | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-11-24 | Filipe Moitinho | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2021-12-19 | Miguel Firmino | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated from striking composite (74 vs 60) and grappling composite (62 vs 70). Susurkaev's striking power and early finishing ability push his technical edge, while Santos' submission depth adds grappling value.
💪 Cardio Score
Santos shows better fight pacing over longer bouts (12:10 avg duration) while Susurkaev's fights end early (5:20 avg), leaving his late-round cardio less stress-tested.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical and Cardio scores. Susurkaev leads on raw power and finishing; Santos counters with submission depth and proven durability in longer fights.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Baisangur Susurkaev Key Advantages
Susurkaev's 91% career finish rate (10 of 11 wins) is the defining attribute of this matchup. His 9 KO/TKO wins span every range—body kicks, right hooks, and ground strikes—demonstrating varied finishing ability rather than a one-dimensional knockout threat. Against Santos, whose two losses came by decision, Susurkaev's danger in any exchange means Santos cannot afford passive exchanges or passive grappling attempts that put him in range of return fire. Even in UFC competition against McConico (10-10) and Nolan (9-8), Susurkaev closed the show cleanly, suggesting the finishing pattern holds regardless of opposition level.
Susurkaev's 4.52 significant strikes per minute advantage over Santos' 3.62 creates a cumulative volume pressure that compounds each round. Combined with a 51% accuracy rate, he lands with greater frequency AND precision. For Santos to take the fight to the ground, he must first survive the early exchanges—a period where Susurkaev's striking output and power create significant finishing windows. His 61% striking defense also limits Santos' ability to counter during takedown setups.
An 11-0 record covering ACA, Fury FC, DWCS, and UFC contexts demonstrates consistent execution across multiple competitive environments. Unlike many prospects who struggle at the UFC transition, Susurkaev finished both UFC opponents and won the DWCS spectacularly with a body kick TKO. His fight IQ appears adaptable—he secured a submission against Nolan when the striking path closed, suggesting he can read and adjust to opponent-specific responses rather than relying on a single game plan.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Santos' 1.4 submission attempts per 15 minutes is the single greatest threat to Susurkaev. If Santos secures a takedown and transitions to back control or a choke position, Susurkaev's submission defense—less battle-tested at elite levels—could be exploited. Susurkaev's fights end quickly, meaning he hasn't developed a deep defensive grappling library under sustained pressure. Santos' Brazilian jiu-jitsu background with 4 career submission wins suggests patience and technical depth on the mat.
With an average fight duration of 5:20 and zero career wins past Round 3, Susurkaev has never been forced to dig deep cardio-wise. If Santos survives early and drags the fight past the midpoint, Susurkaev enters unknown territory. Santos' 12:10 average fight duration and ability to maintain grappling pressure over three rounds represents a significant physiological variable Susurkaev has never faced.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Susurkaev should prioritize establishing striking superiority from the opening bell. Varied combinations targeting body and head, with particular attention to body kicks that have produced TKOs (see Talha), keep Santos reactive rather than proactive. Forcing Santos to defend combinations limits his ability to set up level-change takedown entries. The goal is accumulate damage early enough that Santos' guard instincts override his grappling instincts.
With 70% takedown defense, Susurkaev should use stuffed takedown attempts as opportunities to land heavy counters—knees to the head during the level change, or uppercuts on the way back up. Each failed Santos takedown attempt should cost the Brazilian damage, disincentivizing further grappling entries and keeping the fight in the striking domain where Susurkaev holds a decisive edge.
🚀 Djorden Santos Key Advantages
Santos' 1.4 submission attempts per 15 minutes—more than double Susurkaev's 0.6—represents his clearest pathway to victory. Four career submission wins demonstrate real finishing ability on the ground, not merely a BJJ background. His 2.3 takedowns per 15 minutes provides the entry mechanism, and his willingness to chain submission attempts (rather than abandoning failed chokes) creates sustained danger across the ground battle. If Santos gets to the mat, every position transition carries submission risk.
Santos' 2.3 takedowns per 15 minutes versus Susurkaev's 1.3 creates a persistent threat Susurkaev must prepare for every round. Against a fighter with a 91% finish rate, dragging Susurkaev to the mat—where his power diminishes and Santos' technical grappling takes over—is the only logical path to stealing rounds. The UFC experience against Ozzy Diaz (#35 ranked at the time) shows Santos can execute his game plan under pressure at the highest level.
Santos' 12:10 average fight duration versus Susurkaev's 5:20 reveals a massive experience gap in late-round fighting. Santos has repeatedly gone three full rounds and shown the ability to maintain grappling output as fights progress. If he can weather the early storm—using his 63% takedown defense to limit early control and picking his moments to shoot—the fight becomes more competitive as it enters rounds two and three where Susurkaev's cardio is untested.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Santos absorbs 3.3 significant strikes per minute against Susurkaev's 4.52 SLpM output—a combination that creates real KO danger in open exchanges. Both Santos losses came by decision, suggesting he hasn't been seriously hurt. Susurkaev's level of striking power is different from anything Santos has faced in the UFC, and early accumulation of damage—particularly to the body—could undermine Santos' grappling engine and force him to fight in a phone booth where Susurkaev's power becomes most dangerous.
Santos' 41% takedown accuracy means the majority of his attempts will be stuffed. Against Susurkaev, each failed takedown attempt is not simply neutral—it costs Santos positional energy and exposes him to counter knees, uppercuts, and body strikes on the way up. The cumulative cost of multiple failed shots against a 91% finisher creates a penalty structure where Santos' primary offensive strategy simultaneously powers Susurkaev's finishing opportunities.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Santos' best path to takedowns is not through open-range shooting but through clinch work—dirty boxing at close range to obscure entries, then trips and body locks to bring the fight to the mat. This approach minimizes exposure to Susurkaev's power shots during level changes. Once in the clinch, Santos' grappling depth gives him multiple options: trips, foot sweeps, mat drags, and body lock takedowns that bypass Susurkaev's takedown defense instincts calibrated to double-leg entries.
Santos' strategic imperative is simple: don't get finished in the first two rounds. By using his 63% takedown defense to limit Susurkaev's control time and keeping his distance in early exchanges, Santos can bank on Susurkaev's untested late-round cardio becoming a factor. In Rounds 2 and 3, a tired Susurkaev may become more hittable and more vulnerable to takedowns, opening the submission windows Santos needs to win.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Stylistic Dynamics
This is a textbook striker vs submission grappler confrontation. Susurkaev holds a commanding advantage in the striking domain—his 4.52 SLpM output, 51% accuracy, and 91% finish rate create a constant threat that forces Santos to be cautious about engaging cleanly. Santos' answer is to minimize striking exchanges and force the fight to the mat, where his 1.4 submission attempts per 15 minutes creates genuine finishing danger. The central tension: can Santos get to the mat before Susurkaev lands something significant?
🎯Key Statistical Battle
The most telling stat split is finish method distribution: Susurkaev finishes 82% by KO/TKO, Santos wins 36% by submission. These paths are largely mutually exclusive—the fight will be decided by which domain dominates. Susurkaev's 70% takedown defense is the fulcrum: if he keeps the fight standing with consistency, his striking superiority should accumulate significant damage. If Santos converts even 2-3 takedowns per round and secures back control, the submission threat becomes critical in rounds where Susurkaev's energy may be less than 100%.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical battlefields: (1) Clinch control—Santos' best takedown path is through the clinch, and whoever dominates that scramble zone determines fight location. (2) Counter-striking on failed shots—each of Santos' 41% failed takedowns is a Susurkaev finish opportunity. (3) Late-round pace—if the fight reaches Round 3 competitive, Santos' superior fight duration history vs Susurkaev's untested cardio gives the Brazilian his best window.
🏁Final Prediction
Most likely outcome: Susurkaev by TKO/KO (42% probability) via sustained striking pressure that accumulates body damage and head shots whenever Santos exposes himself during takedown entries. Susurkaev by Decision (26%) if Santos' takedown defense holds and neither finishes—Susurkaev wins the striking department convincingly. Santos' best path (22%) is submission in Round 2 or 3 if he chains multiple takedown attempts and secures back control when Susurkaev's output begins to slow. This is Susurkaev's toughest test to date; Santos represents a genuine threat to the unbeaten record.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 42% | Deep finish value
GOOD VALUE
Model: 22% | Upset path exists
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 68% | High finish probability
⚠️Key Market Considerations
- • Unbeaten prospect premium – Market may overcorrect on 11-0 record vs actual UFC sample size of 2 fights.
- • Submission underpricing – Santos' grappling depth often undervalued against power strikers in betting markets.
- • Cardio unknown – Susurkaev's late-round conditioning is genuinely untested, adding variance to all outcome probabilities.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Baisangur Susurkaev
Primary path — body kicks, right hooks, ground strikes
Striking volume dominance if Santos survives early
RNC or guillotine from dominant position after takedown
💥Outcome Distribution - Djorden Santos
Best upset lane — back take or RNC in late rounds
Requires complete takedown dominance across all 3 rounds
Very unlikely — Santos has never stopped a fight by KO
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Djorden Santos
- • Survive Round 1: Avoid early KO window while Susurkaev's power is freshest.
- • Clinch entries R2+: Drag the fight to the mat through body lock and trip takedowns.
- • Late-round grappling: Chain submission attempts when Susurkaev's untested cardio may falter.
🎯Progressive Pressure - Baisangur Susurkaev
- • Body attack early: Sustained body kicks and body shots undermine Santos' grappling output.
- • Punish failed shots: Every stuffed takedown becomes a counter-striking opportunity.
- • First-round urgency: Susurkaev's optimal window is R1–R2 where finishing power is highest.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Susurkaev's finishing power is clear; Santos' submission depth and Susurkaev's untested cardio keep uncertainty elevated.
✅Supporting Factors
- • 91% career finish rate including 2 UFC wins by finish
- • Striking composite gap (74 vs 60) strongly favors Susurkaev
- • 11-0 record across ACA, Fury FC, DWCS, and UFC
- • Reach advantage (+2") and height edge support striking range control
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Susurkaev's cardio never tested past Round 3
- • Santos' 1.4 Sub/15min creates genuine late-round threat
- • Santos' UFC experience (vs #35 Ozzy Diaz) exceeds Susurkaev's
- • Only 2 UFC fights — small sample for Susurkaev at this level
🏁Executive Summary
Baisangur Susurkaev enters as the statistical favourite on the strength of his elite finishing rate (91%), striking composite edge (74 vs 60), and a perfect 11-0 record that spans multiple competitive promotions. His 4.52 SLpM output combined with 51% accuracy creates sustained damage pressure that forces Santos into a reactive posture — and the data shows Santos has absorbed that kind of pressure poorly, losing both career bouts by decision against rangier, more active strikers.
Prediction: Susurkaev by TKO/KO is the primary path (42% probability) through sustained body and head striking that capitalises on Santos' 3.3 SApM absorption rate. Santos' counter is a submission chain in the championship round (22%) if he can survive early and drag the fight to the mat when Susurkaev's untested cardio becomes a factor. This matchup carries genuine two-way finish variance — if you see Santos at plus money, the submission equity is real enough to warrant consideration.