What are the predictions for UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland?

Our AI model favours Chimaev based on his undefeated record, submission threat (44% sub finish rate), and recent title win over Du Plessis. Strickland's high-output striking and championship experience make him dangerous but his 6% submission finish rate limits his paths to victory against Chimaev's grappling. In the co-main, Van vs. Taira is the tightest fight on the card at 52-48 — it hinges on whether Taira (38% KO, 38% sub) can take the fight to the ground against Van's wrestling-heavy approach. The card also features Brady vs. Buckley and Volkov vs. Cortes-Acosta.

Is Joshua Van vs Tatsuro Taira on UFC 328?

Yes. Joshua Van vs. Tatsuro Taira for the UFC Flyweight Championship is the co-main event at UFC 328 on May 9, 2026. The bout was originally scheduled for UFC 327 (April 11, 2026) but was rescheduled after Van suffered an injury ahead of that event.

UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland — Newark

Q: How to watch UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland and what time does it start?

UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland airs on Paramount+ on Saturday, May 9, 2026. The main card starts at 5:00 PM ET (2:00 PM PT / 10:00 PM BST). The event is held at Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey.

Saturday, May 9, 2026

Newark, New Jersey, United States

Prudential Center

⚡ Upcoming Event14 Fights🏆 2 Title Fights

Main Card: Paramount+

Prelims: Paramount+

Start Time: 5:00 PM ET

Start Time by Timezone

Times are estimated; Early Prelims ~2h, Prelims ~2h, Main Card ~2h. Subject to change.

US West Coast

Early

2:00 PM

Prelims

3:00 PM

Main

5:00 PM

Eastern US/Canada

Early

5:00 PM

Prelims

6:00 PM

Main

8:00 PM

BST

United Kingdom / Ireland

Early

10:00 PM

Prelims

11:00 PM

Main

1:00 AM (Sun)

CET

Central Europe

Early

11:00 PM

Prelims

12:00 AM (Sun)

Main

2:00 AM (Sun)

AEST

Australia (East)

Early

9:00 AM (Sun)

Prelims

10:00 AM (Sun)

Main

12:00 PM (Sun)

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UFC 328: Full Card Analytics & Predictions

UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland — Prudential Center, Newark — May 9, 2026

The boogeyman gets his biggest test. Undefeated Khamzat Chimaev (15-0, 9-0 UFC) puts the middleweight title on the line against the man nobody wants to fight, Sean Strickland (30-7, 17-7 UFC), at Prudential Center in Newark. Chimaev's 44% submission rate and 22% KO/TKO rate in the UFC make him a nightmare matchup — he has literally never lost a professional fight. Strickland counters with relentless volume (65% of his UFC wins by decision), legitimate knockout power (29% by KO/TKO), and the championship experience that comes from dethroning Adesanya. This is the ultimate grappler-vs-striker title fight. Paramount+ at 5:00 PM ET.

The co-main event brings another championship clash: Joshua Van (16-2, 9-1 UFC) defends the UFC Flyweight Championship against Japan's Tatsuro Taira (18-1, 8-1 UFC) in a bout rescheduled from UFC 327 after Van suffered an injury. Van's wrestling-heavy approach (67% DEC rate) meets Taira's multi-dimensional finishing threat — 38% KO, 38% sub, only 25% decision. AI-powered analytics cover every fight on this card with model probabilities, odds comparisons, and method-of-victory projections. Undercard standouts: Brady vs. Buckley at welterweight is a top-10 grappler-vs-striker clash, Volkov vs. Cortes-Acosta brings heavyweight power, and Błachowicz vs. Guskov features a former champion.

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What is UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland?

UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland is a PPV event on May 9, 2026, at Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey — and it's a double-title-fight card. Undefeated Khamzat Chimaev (15-0, 9-0 UFC) headlines against former champion Sean Strickland (30-7, 17-7 UFC) for the middleweight title. The co-main brings the UFC Flyweight Championship: Joshua Van (16-2) defends against Tatsuro Taira (18-1) in a bout rescheduled from UFC 327 after Van suffered an injury. Two title fights. One night. Newark's Prudential Center on Paramount+ at 5:00 PM ET.

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What are the predictions for Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland?

Our model leans Chimaev — his undefeated record, dominant grappling (44% submission rate in the UFC), and recent title win over Du Plessis all point to a fighter who hasn't been figured out yet. Strickland's high-output striking (65% decision rate) and championship composure make him dangerous, but his limited submission offense (6% finish rate) narrows his paths to victory once the fight hits the mat. In the co-main, Van vs. Taira is the closest call on the card at 52-48 — Van's wrestling and decision-heavy style (67% DEC) runs directly into Taira's multi-threat finishing game (38% KO, 38% sub). If Taira gets a takedown, anything can happen. Brady vs. Buckley projects as a top welterweight clash, and Volkov vs. Cortes-Acosta offers heavyweight power and potential underdog value. Every fight includes AI win probabilities, method-of-victory projections, and model-vs-market comparisons.

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How to watch UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland and what time does it start?

UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland goes live Saturday, May 9, 2026. Main card at 5:00 PM ET (2:00 PM PT / 10:00 PM BST) on Paramount+. Prelims start roughly two hours earlier, also on Paramount+. Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey hosts what could be the most explosive title fight of 2026.

Main Event — MW Title

Chimaev vs. Strickland

The definitive grappler-vs-striker title fight at 185 lbs. Chimaev's smothering grappling (44% SUB rate) against Strickland's relentless volume striking (65% DEC rate) — whoever dictates where this fight takes place wins.

Welterweight

Brady vs. Buckley

Elite grappler Sean Brady meets knockout artist Joaquin Buckley in a welterweight clash with title-contender implications. Style matchup mirrors the main event.

Co-Main — FLW Title

Van vs. Taira

Rescheduled from UFC 327 after Van suffered an injury. The tightest fight on the card at 52-48. Van's wrestling and decision-heavy style (67% DEC) faces Taira's multi-dimensional finishing threat — 38% KO, 38% sub, 25% decision. If Taira gets a takedown, anything can happen.

Heavyweight

Volkov vs. Cortes-Acosta

Veteran heavyweight Alexander Volkov faces rising power puncher Waldo Cortes-Acosta. Our model sees potential value on the underdog in this striking-heavy matchup.

📊Analysis Reliability Framework

Our analytical model considers UFC experience as one of several factors for optimal predictions. While we can analyze any fight, fighters with 5+ UFC bouts provide more comprehensive data for our statistical modeling. This doesn't diminish the quality of our analysis for newer fighters - it's simply one criterion we factor into our confidence assessments.

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High Risk (**)

<3 UFC Bouts

Limited UFC data available. Analysis relies more heavily on external sources and pre-UFC performance patterns.

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Moderate Risk (*)

3-4 UFC Bouts

Meaningful UFC sample size with good analytical foundation. Reliable insights with solid confidence levels.

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Optimal Data

5+ UFC Bouts

Comprehensive statistical foundation enabling highest confidence analysis and predictive accuracy.

Note: All fights receive thorough analysis regardless of UFC experience levels. This framework simply helps calibrate confidence in our predictions.

UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland Fights, Analytics & Predictions

💡

We display the best available odds for each fighter to maximize value. Preference is given to BetOnline when available; otherwise, we select the highest‑value line and show the sportsbook and implied probability (I.P %).

🏆 Main Event

🟢

Khamzat Chimaev

15-0-0

🏆 undefined

Market Odds

...vs...

No picks yet

Sean Strickland

30-7-0

21-8-0

Model Probabilities vs Market Odds Summary

Fight	Fighter A	Model Prob A	Market Odds A	Implied Prob A	Fighter B	Model Prob B	Market Odds B	Implied Prob B	Value
Chimaev vs Strickland🟢	Khamzat Chimaev	50.0%	N/A	—	Sean Strickland	50.0%	N/A	—	Strickland +50.0%
Van vs Taira🟢	Joshua Van	52.0%	N/A	—	Tatsuro Taira	48.0%	N/A	—	Van +52.0%Statistical model estimate
Volkov vs Cortes-Acosta🟢	Alexander Volkov	50.0%	N/A	—	Waldo Cortes-Acosta	50.0%	N/A	—	Cortes-Acosta +50.0%
Brady vs Buckley🟢	Sean Brady	50.0%	N/A	—	Joaquin Buckley	50.0%	N/A	—	Buckley +50.0%
Green vs Stephens🟢	King Green	50.0%	N/A	—	Jeremy Stephens	50.0%	N/A	—	Stephens +50.0%
Błachowicz vs Guskov🟢	Jan Błachowicz	50.0%	N/A	—	Bogdan Guskov	50.0%	N/A	—	Guskov +50.0%
Gautier vs Diaz🟡	Ateba Gautier	50.0%	N/A	—	Ozzy Diaz	50.0%	N/A	—	Diaz +50.0%
Kopylov vs Tulio🟡	Roman Kopylov	50.0%	N/A	—	Marco Tulio	50.0%	N/A	—	Tulio +50.0%
Carpenter vs Ochoa🟡	Clayton Carpenter	50.0%	N/A	—	Jose Ochoa	50.0%	N/A	—	Ochoa +50.0%
Susurkaev vs Santos🟡	Baisangur Susurkaev	50.0%	N/A	—	Djorden Santos	50.0%	N/A	—	Santos +50.0%
Dawson vs Rębecki🟢	Grant Dawson	50.0%	N/A	—	Mateusz Rębecki	50.0%	N/A	—	Rębecki +50.0%
Sabatini vs Gomis🟢	Pat Sabatini	50.0%	N/A	—	William Gomis	50.0%	N/A	—	Gomis +50.0%
Miller vs Gordon🟢	Jim Miller	50.0%	N/A	—	Jared Gordon	50.0%	N/A	—	Gordon +50.0%

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UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland — Newark

UFC 328: Full Card Analytics & Predictions

What is UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland?

What are the predictions for Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland?

How to watch UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland and what time does it start?

📊Analysis Reliability Framework

UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland Fights, Analytics & Predictions

Khamzat Chimaev

Sean Strickland

Joshua Van

Tatsuro Taira

Alexander Volkov

Waldo Cortes-Acosta

Sean Brady

Joaquin Buckley

King Green

Jeremy Stephens

Jan Błachowicz

Bogdan Guskov

Ateba Gautier

Ozzy Diaz

Roman Kopylov

Marco Tulio

Clayton Carpenter

Jose Ochoa

Baisangur Susurkaev

Djorden Santos

Joel Alvarez

Yaroslav Amosov

Grant Dawson

Mateusz Rębecki

Pat Sabatini

William Gomis

Jim Miller

Jared Gordon

Model Probabilities vs Market Odds Summary

Event Discussion

THE FUTURE OFCOMBAT SPORTS ANALYTICS

THE FUTURE OF
COMBAT SPORTS ANALYTICS