Kody Steele vs Dom Mar Fan
Men's Lightweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs Prates
Saturday, May 2, 2026 • 30ft Octagon (Large Cage)
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Kody Steele
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Dom Mar Fan
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Kody Steele
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-08 | Rongzhu | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-10-08 | Chasen Blair | W | TKO - Body Shot (R2, 4:07) |
| 2024-04-21 | Alejandro Martinez | W | KO/TKO (R3, 2:09) |
| 2023-09-24 | Nico Echeverry | W | KO/TKO (R2, 3:32) |
| 2023-07-16 | Nicholas Whitehead | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 4:35) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Dom Mar Fan
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | Sang Uk Kim | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-08-22 | Jae Hyun Park | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-05-23 | Yuji Ephoeviga | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-11-30 | Tom Pratt | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R1, 1:20) |
| 2024-06-22 | Tim Rogers | W | TKO - Punches (R2, 2:06) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (52.0 vs 52.0) and Grappling Composite (45.0 vs 62.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Kody Steele Key Advantages
Steele's 71.4% finish rate (5 of 7 wins) compared to Mar Fan's 44.4% demonstrates a significant finishing threat that Mar Fan must respect throughout the fight. With 4 KO/TKO victories—including a liver shot TKO on the Contender Series and multiple regional finishes—Steele carries fight-ending power in both hands. His high-volume approach (4.44 SLpM) means he throws significantly more than Mar Fan, and while his 32% accuracy is low, the sheer volume creates accumulative damage that can shift a fight. His FOTN bonus at UFC 312 showed he can sustain exciting output over three rounds.
Steele's fight distribution shows his most dangerous windows are in the first two rounds, with multiple finishes coming before the midpoint. His liver shot TKO over Chasen Blair (R2, 4:07), KO of Nico Echeverry (R2, 3:32), and TKO of Nicholas Whitehead (R1, 4:35) demonstrate an ability to hurt opponents early. In a 3-round fight, this early aggression becomes even more impactful—Steele can front-load damage before Mar Fan establishes his grappling rhythm. His 4.44 SLpM with aggressive forward pressure creates early momentum that can sway judges if the fight goes the distance.
Steele's 4.44 SLpM output advantage over Mar Fan's 3.71 creates a meaningful volume differential in standing exchanges. As a Syndicate MMA product with a BJJ black belt under Checkmat lineage, Steele brings a well-rounded skill set with aggressive combination work that can overwhelm Mar Fan's 44% striking defense. When the fight stays on the feet, Steele's higher output combined with genuine power creates scoring advantages that accumulate over three rounds. His body attack—demonstrated by the Blair liver shot TKO—adds a dimension that can sap Mar Fan's energy and compromise his takedown entries.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Mar Fan's 2.00 TD15 with 50% accuracy represents a persistent grappling threat. While Steele's 100% TDDef looks impressive, it comes from only two tracked fights and may not hold against Mar Fan's more polished entries. As a BJJ brown belt with 3 submission wins, Mar Fan can change the fight entirely once he secures takedowns. Despite Steele's own BJJ black belt credentials, Mar Fan's ability to chain attempts and work from top position could neutralize Steele's striking advantages while accumulating control time and submission threats.
Mar Fan's 75-inch reach vs Steele's 71-inch reach creates a 4-inch differential that complicates Steele's entries. Combined with Mar Fan's 2-inch height advantage (5'11" vs 5'9") and superior 56% striking accuracy, Steele must navigate a longer, more precise fighter to close distance. The 30-foot octagon provides Mar Fan ample room to maintain his preferred distance, circle away from pressure, and time takedown entries as Steele commits to closing the gap. Steele's 7.17 SApM suggests he absorbs significant damage in exchanges, which compounds against a more accurate striker.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Steele should look to close distance quickly and establish boxing range where his power advantage becomes most dangerous. His body attack—proven by the Blair TKO—should target Mar Fan's midsection to compromise his takedown entries and sap cardio. By maintaining constant forward pressure, Steele can limit Mar Fan's ability to set up takedowns from range and force the Australian into reactive exchanges where Steele's heavier hands create fight-ending opportunities.
While Steele holds a BJJ black belt under Checkmat, his best path to victory is keeping the fight standing where his power advantage is most dangerous. His 100% TDDef (small sample) and grappling credentials give him tools to stay off his back, but Mar Fan's 50% TDAcc presents a persistent threat. Steele should use underhooks, cage positioning, and uppercut threats to deter entries. If taken down, his BJJ black belt gives him legitimate scrambling ability—but engaging in extended guard work against Mar Fan's top game is risky.
🚀 Dom Mar Fan Key Advantages
Mar Fan's 2.00 takedowns per 15 minutes vs Steele's 0.62 represents a 3.2x differential that creates significant grappling advantages. As a BJJ brown belt from Team Compton Training Centre, Mar Fan's ability to secure takedowns and transition to dominant positions is the defining skill gap in this matchup. His 50% takedown accuracy is excellent, though Steele's 100% TDDef (small sample) presents a question mark. Once on the mat, Mar Fan's submission threat—demonstrated by his rear naked choke finish of Tom Pratt (R1, 1:20)—creates constant danger. Both fighters hold BJJ credentials, but Mar Fan's top-game control is the more proven weapon.
Mar Fan's 75-inch reach advantage (vs Steele's 71") combined with his 5'11" height creates significant distance management opportunities. At 26 years old with a 5-fight win streak, Mar Fan carries youth and momentum advantages. His longer frame allows him to establish range, use jabs to set up takedown entries, and maintain distance when needed. The 4-inch reach differential is particularly impactful at lightweight, where it allows Mar Fan to land from angles where Steele cannot reach him, creating frustration and forcing the American into overcommitted entries.
Mar Fan enters on a 5-fight win streak including Road to UFC tournament victories over quality opponents like Sang Uk Kim, Jae Hyun Park, and the previously undefeated Yuji Ephoeviga (11-0). His 11:30 average fight duration and decision-heavy profile suggest excellent cardio and pace management over three rounds. His damage economy is vastly superior—absorbing only 2.49 SApM vs Steele's alarming 7.17 SApM. While his 44% striking defense is lower than Steele's 52%, his 56% striking accuracy means he lands far more efficiently than Steele's 32%, creating a quality-over-quantity advantage in exchanges.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Steele's 71.4% finish rate and early-round stopping power represent the biggest threat to Mar Fan's gameplan. If Steele can land clean power shots before Mar Fan establishes his grappling rhythm, the fight could end abruptly. Mar Fan's 46% striking accuracy suggests he can be touched, and his both career losses came by submission—not striking—meaning his chin is relatively untested against heavy-handed opponents at the UFC level. Steele's body work adds another layer of threat that could compromise Mar Fan's ability to shoot.
Both of Mar Fan's career losses came via submission, indicating that when he faces superior grapplers, he can be caught. While Steele is not known as a submission artist (0.0 SubPer15), this historical vulnerability suggests Mar Fan can be outworked on the ground by physically imposing opponents. If Steele develops scramble-heavy exchanges where both fighters are competing for position, Mar Fan's submission defense has proven fallible under sustained pressure.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Mar Fan's optimal strategy centers on establishing takedowns early and accumulating control time. His 2.00 TD15 with 50% accuracy against Steele's untested TDD creates favorable conversion rates. Once on top, Mar Fan should focus on positional advancement toward back control where his rear naked choke becomes lethal. His BJJ brown belt credentials allow him to maintain dominant positions while threatening submissions, forcing Steele to defend rather than escape. Each successful takedown cycle drains Steele's energy and limits his ability to generate the striking power he needs.
When standing, Mar Fan should leverage his 4-inch reach advantage to maintain distance and use his jab to set up takedown entries. By keeping Steele at the end of his punches, Mar Fan can avoid the American's power range while scoring with longer strikes. His 46% striking accuracy at range should be sufficient to win exchanges when combined with his 55% striking defense. The key is using striking as a setup tool rather than primary weapon, mixing jabs and feints to disguise level changes and create clean takedown entries.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 30-foot octagon at RAC Arena in Perth creates a dynamic that slightly favors Mar Fan's range-based gameplan and takedown entries. His 75-inch reach and 5'11" height allow him to establish distance management while Steele must cross more ground to enter his power range. However, Steele's aggressive forward pressure can compress the cage space quickly, forcing exchanges at boxing range where his power advantage becomes most dangerous. The large cage gives Mar Fan room to circle, reset, and set up takedown entries from range—but also gives Steele more space to load up on power shots if he can cut off angles effectively.
🎯Technical Breakdown
This matchup presents a nuanced grappling-vs-grappling dynamic disguised as striker vs grappler. Both hold BJJ credentials (Steele black belt, Mar Fan brown belt), but Mar Fan's 2.00 TD15 vs Steele's 0.62 shows he uses his grappling offensively far more. While Steele's striking volume (4.44 SLpM) and finish rate (71.4%) create genuine knockout equity, his 32% accuracy and 7.17 SApM reveal a fighter who absorbs heavy damage in exchanges. Mar Fan's 56% striking accuracy and 2.49 SApM create a vastly superior efficiency profile. The critical question is whether Steele's volume and power can overwhelm Mar Fan before the Australian's grappling control and superior accuracy take over in a 3-round fight.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical battle areas will determine the outcome: takedown defense vs grappling entries, early power vs late-round cardio, and cage positioning. Steele's 100% TDDef (small sample) faces a stern test against Mar Fan's persistent 2.00 TD15 with 50% accuracy. The American's power shots—especially body work—represent his most dangerous tools for deterring takedown entries, but Mar Fan's ability to mix striking setups with level changes makes these counters less predictable. As a 3-round fight, the cardio advantage matters less than in 5-round bouts, but Mar Fan's superior conditioning (11:30 avg vs 10:44) still provides an edge in Round 3, especially given Steele's alarming 7.17 SApM absorption rate that suggests accumulated damage throughout the fight.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Dom Mar Fan by Decision (32% probability), achieved through consistent takedown pressure, control time, and his vastly superior 56% striking accuracy over three rounds. Mar Fan's submission path (16%) becomes viable if his grappling transitions create back-take opportunities, particularly via rear naked choke. Steele's primary win path is KO/TKO (26%) via early-round power shots—especially body work—before Mar Fan establishes grappling control. Steele's decision path (14%) requires his TDDef to hold and his volume striking to outscore Mar Fan's accuracy. His BJJ black belt gives him a narrow submission path (5%) through scrambles. Mar Fan's KO/TKO path (7%) is a secondary outcome—accumulative damage on a fighter absorbing 7.17 SApM could produce a late stoppage.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 32% | Fair: +213
GOOD VALUE
Model: 26% | Fair: +285
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 16% | Fair: +525
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overweights Steele's power – Mar Fan's grappling control limits KO windows.
- • Undervalues Road to UFC experience – Mar Fan beat quality opponents; Steele lost his only UFC fight.
- • Reach gap overlooked – 4-inch reach differential disrupts Steele's entries significantly.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Kody Steele
Requires TDDef to hold and volume outscoring
Primary lane via early power shots and body work
BJJ black belt catch in scrambles possible
💥Outcome Distribution - Dom Mar Fan
Primary path via grappling control and accurate striking
RNC from back control after takedown sequences
Accumulative damage on a 7.17 SApM absorber
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Kody Steele
- • First 5 minutes: Highest KO equity before grappling takes hold.
- • Body attacks: Rip to the body to compromise Mar Fan's shot entries.
- • Center control: Stay off the fence; avoid clinch where Mar Fan shoots.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Dom Mar Fan
- • Takedown cycles: Chain attempts to bank control time and drain Steele.
- • Back control: Transition to RNC position for submission threats.
- • Late rounds: Superior cardio creates widening advantages in R3.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Low-moderate confidence — close fight with very limited UFC data
✅Supporting Factors
- • Mar Fan's 3.2x TD volume edge and 56% striking accuracy
- • 5-fight win streak including Road to UFC championship
- • Home crowd in Perth, Australia — intangible edge
- • Vastly superior damage economy (2.49 vs 7.17 SApM)
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Steele's BJJ black belt + 71.4% finish rate = dual threat
- • Both fighters have very limited UFC data (tiny samples)
- • 3-round format compresses grappling time for Mar Fan
- • Steele's 100% TDDef untested against real grappler
🏁Executive Summary
This is a closer fight than the surface numbers suggest. Dom Mar Fan's grappling-first approach and 56% striking accuracy give him a slight edge in fight control, but Kody Steele's BJJ black belt credentials mean he won't be helpless if taken down—and his 71.4% finish rate creates constant KO danger. Mar Fan's 2.00 TD15 vs Steele's 0.62 creates a 3.2x takedown volume advantage, while his 2.49 SApM vs Steele's alarming 7.17 reveals vastly superior damage economy. Mar Fan's 56% striking accuracy vs Steele's 32% means he lands far more efficiently, though Steele's 4.44 SLpM volume creates round-winning opportunities. Mar Fan's 5-fight win streak, Road to UFC championship pedigree, and home crowd advantage in Perth edge him ahead—but Steele's BJJ black belt, FOTN tenacity, and body-shot finishing ability make this a genuine coin-flip with a slight lean toward the Australian.
Prediction: Mar Fan by Decision most likely (32% probability) through grappling control and striking accuracy over three rounds; Steele by KO/TKO nearly as likely (26%) via power shots and body work before Mar Fan establishes control. Steele's BJJ black belt keeps a narrow submission path alive (5%). The fight's outcome hinges on whether Steele's volume and power can overwhelm Mar Fan's accuracy and takedowns in a compressed 3-round format—with the Australian's home crowd providing an intangible edge in close rounds.