Jan Blachowicz vs Bogdan Guskov
Men's Light Heavyweight Bout • UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland
Saturday, May 9, 2026 • Prudential Center, Newark, NJ • 30ft Octagon (Large Cage)
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Jan Blachowicz
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Bogdan Guskov
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Jan Blachowicz
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-06 | Bogdan Guskov | D | Decision - Majority Draw (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-03-22 | Carlos Ulberg | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-07-29 | Alex Pereira | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-12-10 | Magomed Ankalaev | D | Decision - Split Draw (R5, 5:00) |
| 2022-05-14 | Aleksandar Rakic | W | TKO - Leg Injury (R3, 1:11) |
Last 5 Fights - Bogdan Guskov
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-06 | Jan Blachowicz | D | Decision - Majority Draw (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-07-26 | Nikita Krylov | W | TKO - Straight Right to Ground Punches (R1, 4:18) |
| 2025-01-18 | Billy Elekana | W | Submission - Guillotine Choke (R2, 3:33) |
| 2024-04-27 | Ryan Spann | W | TKO - Ground & Pound (R2, 3:16) |
| 2024-02-10 | Zac Pauga | W | TKO - Combination Punches (R1, 3:38) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (54.0 vs 60.0) and Grappling Composite (48.0 vs 28.0). Blachowicz's balanced profile vs Guskov's striking-heavy approach.
Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration (10:30 vs 5:15), striking rate, and finish rate. Blachowicz's longer fights demonstrate superior endurance.
Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
Fight Analysis Breakdown
Jan Blachowicz Key Advantages
Blachowicz's 1.03 takedowns per 15 minutes vs Guskov's 0.0 gives him a weapon to change the fight's location. His 50% TDAcc and 68% TDDef create an asymmetric grappling dynamic. When Blachowicz can close distance and initiate wrestling sequences, he neutralizes Guskov's power advantage and accumulates control time that scores on judges' cards. The Polish veteran's ability to mix takedown attempts with his striking keeps Guskov guessing.
Blachowicz absorbs 2.91 strikes per minute compared to Guskov's 3.30, and his 53% striking defense vs 45% creates a cleaner defensive profile. Over three rounds, this efficiency gap means Blachowicz takes less cumulative damage while maintaining his offensive output. His veteran ring IQ allows him to pick his spots carefully rather than engaging in firefights where Guskov's power becomes most dangerous.
With 22 UFC fights including title bouts against Adesanya, Teixeira, and Pereira, Blachowicz has competed at the highest level consistently. This experience advantage is massive against Guskov's 6 UFC fights. The Pole's ability to make adjustments round-to-round, manage distance in the large cage, and stay composed under pressure gives him tactical advantages that raw athleticism cannot replicate.
Unfavorable Scenarios
Guskov's 83% KO rate and explosive first-round tendencies (13 of 18 wins in R1) make early exchanges extremely dangerous for the 43-year-old Blachowicz. If the Pole allows Guskov to find his range early and land clean power shots, the fight could end quickly. The first meeting showed Guskov landing some significant shots that wobbled Blachowicz, and repeating those sequences with better finishing instinct could prove decisive.
At 43, Blachowicz's reflexes and recovery have visibly declined in recent fights. His losses to Ulberg and Pereira, plus the draw with Guskov himself, suggest diminishing returns against younger, more athletic opponents. Each additional fight at this stage of his career risks further erosion of his reaction time and durability, making him increasingly susceptible to the kind of explosive power Guskov carries.
Likely Gameplan
Blachowicz should use his jab and reach advantage (78" vs 76") to establish range, then transition into clinch work and takedown attempts when Guskov loads up on power shots. His veteran timing allows him to recognize when Guskov is loading up and close the distance before the power lands clean. This strategy also limits Guskov's ability to generate the separation needed to throw with full power, turning the fight into a grindy clinch battle that favors Blachowicz's experience and wrestling.
In a 3-round fight, Blachowicz needs to steal early rounds through activity and cage control before Guskov's power accumulates damage. By establishing a high work rate with jabs, leg kicks, and clinch control in the first two rounds, Blachowicz can build a scoring cushion that forces Guskov to take risks in the third round. This strategic approach plays to Blachowicz's strengths as a point-fighter while minimizing his exposure to Guskov's knockout power.
Bogdan Guskov Key Advantages
With 15 of 18 career wins by KO/TKO, Guskov carries legitimate one-punch knockout power. His 4.17 SLpM output combined with 55% striking accuracy means he's both active and precise. Against a 43-year-old opponent whose chin has been tested repeatedly, this power advantage becomes even more pronounced. The Uzbek's ability to finish fights at any moment forces Blachowicz to fight cautiously, limiting the veteran's offensive output and creating openings for counter-strikes.
At 33 vs 43, Guskov holds a significant physical prime advantage. His explosive movement, fast-twitch reactions, and ability to maintain intensity throughout three rounds contrast sharply with Blachowicz's age-related decline. Guskov's 100% finish rate suggests he possesses the physical tools to overwhelm opponents when he finds his range. The 10-year age gap manifests in reaction time, recovery between exchanges, and the ability to explode into combinations without telegraphing.
Unfavorable Scenarios
With 0.0 takedowns per 15 minutes and only 50% TDDef, Guskov is vulnerable when the fight goes to the ground. If Blachowicz can implement his wrestling, Guskov's power advantage disappears entirely. The Uzbek's lack of offensive grappling means he has no way to reverse position or threaten submissions from bottom, leaving him entirely dependent on scrambling back to his feet. Each minute spent on the ground is a minute where Guskov's primary weapon is neutralized.
Guskov has zero career decision wins. If forced to go three rounds without a finish, his limited experience in point-fighting scenarios becomes a liability against the more tactically experienced Blachowicz. His 5:15 average fight duration suggests he's rarely been in deep waters, and a tactical, grinding fight that goes to the scorecards represents uncharted territory where Blachowicz's 22-fight UFC experience gives him a decisive edge in managing pace and scoring criteria.
Likely Gameplan
Guskov should look to end this fight early by cutting off the cage and landing heavy combinations. His best window is in the first 10 minutes before Blachowicz can settle into rhythm. The Uzbek's 4.17 SLpM and 55% accuracy give him the tools to overwhelm Blachowicz with volume and power, particularly in round one where his explosive tendencies have produced 13 of his 18 career victories. Pressing forward and forcing exchanges plays to Guskov's strengths while denying Blachowicz the space to implement his jab and clinch game.
Varying attack levels will exploit Blachowicz's declining reaction time and make his defensive reads more difficult. By mixing body shots with head hunting, Guskov can force Blachowicz into uncomfortable guessing games that slow his counters and takedown setups. The body work also taxes Blachowicz's aging cardio, making his later-round advantages less pronounced while creating openings for the head shots that have produced the majority of Guskov's finishes.
Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 30-foot octagon provides space for Blachowicz to manage distance with his reach advantage but also gives Guskov room to load up on power shots. As a rematch, both fighters have tactical data from their first encounter at UFC 323, which ended in a majority draw. Blachowicz will look to use the cage to set up clinch work and takedowns, while Guskov will aim to cut off angles and trap the veteran against the fence where his power is most dangerous. The large cage slightly favors Blachowicz's distance management game, but Guskov's ability to close space quickly mitigates this advantage.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical matchup shows Guskov holding edges in striking volume (4.17 vs 3.41 SLpM) and accuracy (55% vs 49%), while Blachowicz leads in defense (53% vs 45% StrDef) and grappling (1.03 vs 0.0 TD15). The draw in their first meeting suggests these advantages roughly cancel out, creating a razor-thin margin between these fighters. Guskov's 60.0 striking composite outpaces Blachowicz's 54.0, but the Pole's 48.0 grappling composite towers over Guskov's 28.0, providing a clear path to shift the fight's dynamics when striking alone becomes too dangerous.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical battle areas will determine the outcome: takedown implementation, power management in early rounds, and the 3-round format. Blachowicz's ability to land takedowns against Guskov's 50% TDDef represents his primary path to victory, but the shorter fight format limits his ability to outwork Guskov in later championship rounds where his conditioning superiority would shine. Guskov's early finishing power (13 of 18 wins in R1) makes the opening minutes the most dangerous period for Blachowicz, while the third round represents Blachowicz's best window as Guskov's untested cardio potentially becomes a factor.
🏁Final Prediction
Guskov by KO/TKO is the most likely single outcome (35% probability), driven by his devastating knockout power and the physical toll that age has taken on Blachowicz. However, Blachowicz by Decision (25%) represents a strong counter-path given his tactical intelligence, wrestling credentials, and ability to grind out rounds through clinch work and control time. The rematch factor adds uncertainty, as both fighters now have specific tactical data on their opponent. The 3-round format slightly favors Guskov by limiting Blachowicz's ability to bank late-round advantages through conditioning superiority.
Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 25% | Fair: +300
GOOD VALUE
Model: 25% | Fair: +300
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 47% | Fair: -113
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Rematch factor underpriced – First fight draw suggests coin-flip dynamics that odds may not fully capture.
- • Blachowicz grappling undervalued – His 1.03 TD/15min vs Guskov's 0.0 creates a clear path to disrupt the fight.
- • Age factor may be overweighted – Blachowicz's tactical intelligence partially offsets physical decline.
Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Jan Blachowicz
Primary path via clinch control and takedowns
Counter shots and ground-and-pound accumulation
Veteran submission game from top position
💥Outcome Distribution - Bogdan Guskov
Primary path via explosive power and volume
Outpoint via striking volume and accuracy edge
Guillotine or ground finish if opportunity arises
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Bogdan Guskov
- • First 5–10 minutes: Highest KO equity via explosive power.
- • Cage cutting: Trap Blachowicz against fence for power combinations.
- • Level changes: Body-head combinations to exploit aging reflexes.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Jan Blachowicz
- • Clinch work: Jab-to-clinch transitions neutralize power.
- • Takedown mixing: Wrestling threats disrupt Guskov's rhythm.
- • Late rounds: Conditioning and experience become decisive factors.
Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Rematch after a draw makes prediction highly uncertain
✅Supporting Factors
- • Statistical edges roughly split between fighters
- • Rematch data available from first encounter
- • Clear stylistic contrast provides analysis angles
- • Guskov's power vs Blachowicz's experience is well-documented
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Prior draw makes outcome genuinely unpredictable
- • Blachowicz's age decline is a variable factor
- • Guskov's untested cardio in 3-round fights
🏁Executive Summary
This rematch pits Bogdan Guskov's devastating knockout power against Jan Blachowicz's veteran experience and well-rounded skill set. Their first meeting at UFC 323 ended in a majority draw, highlighting how evenly matched these fighters are despite their contrasting profiles. Guskov's 4.17 SLpM and 55% accuracy vs Blachowicz's 3.41 and 49% show a clear striking volume edge for the younger man, while Blachowicz's superior defense (53% vs 45%) and grappling (1.03 vs 0.0 TD15) provide alternative win paths. At 43, Blachowicz faces the relentless clock of age against a 33-year-old power puncher who has finished 100% of his victories. The 3-round format slightly favors Guskov, as it limits Blachowicz's ability to bank late-round advantages through conditioning superiority.
Prediction: Guskov by KO/TKO is the highest-probability single outcome (35%), but Blachowicz by Decision (25%) remains a strong counter-path given his tactical intelligence and wrestling credentials. The rematch factor and prior draw make this one of the most genuinely uncertain fights on the UFC 328 card.