Ateba Gautier vs Tre’ston Vines
Men's Middleweight Bout • UFC 320
Saturday, October 4, 2025
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite and Grappling Composite. Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
Last 5 Fights - Ateba Gautier
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-19 | Robert Valentin | W | KO/TKO - Punch (R1, 1:10) |
| 2025-03-29 | Jose Daniel Medina | W | KO/TKO - Punch (R1, 3:32) |
| 2024-09-17 | Yura Naito | W | KO/TKO - Punch (R2, 4:00) |
| 2023-12-02 | Carlos Antonio de Souza | W | KO/TKO - Punch (R1, -) |
| 2023-06-02 | Vuk Lekic | W | KO/TKO - Punch (R1, 1:58) |
Last 5 Fights - Tre’ston Vines
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-30 | Ethan Hughes | W | TKO - Strikes (R1, 3:10) |
| 2024-09-20 | Robert Hale | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R2, 4:45) |
| 2024-06-29 | Ratavious Thrasher | W | TKO - Strikes (R1, 1:50) |
| 2024-03-29 | Chris Mixan | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-07-14 | Raheam Forest | L | KO/TKO (R1, 0:26) |
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🥊Stylistic Dynamics & Matchup Analysis
This middleweight bout presents a classic "UFC-ready pressure striker vs short-notice regional power-puncher" dynamic.Ateba Gautier enters with proven UFC credentials, elite striking metrics (6.93 SLpM, 61% accuracy), and demonstrated finishing power against UFC-level competition. His 6'4" frame with 81" reach creates significant distance advantages, while his 90% takedown defense neutralizes wrestling threats.
Tre’ston Vines brings legitimate knockout power and a 4-fight win streak from regional competition, but faces substantial challenges: short-notice preparation (4 days), historical vulnerability to early finishes (3 R1 KO/TKO losses), and unproven defensive capabilities against UFC-level striking. His boxer-puncher style relies on pocket exchanges, which plays directly into Ateba Gautier's strengths.
The 30-foot cage favors Ateba Gautier's range control and defensive footwork, while Tre’ston Vines must navigate significant distance to land his power shots. This spatial advantage compounds Ateba Gautier's technical superiority and reduces Tre’ston Vines's margin for error.
📈Statistical Advantages & Technical Edges
Ateba Gautier holds decisive advantages across key metrics: Volume (+44% SLpM edge) with 6.93 strikes per minute versus Tre’ston Vines's estimated 4.8, Precision (61% vs ~48% accuracy) translating to 13 more significant strikes landed per 100 attempts, and Damage avoidance (2.19 SApM vs ~3.8) meaning he absorbs approximately half the damage.
The striking composite scores reflect this disparity: Ateba Gautier at 8.7/10 versus Tre’ston Vines at 6.8/10. This 1.9-point differential represents a substantial technical gap, particularly in the context of UFC-level competition where precision and output efficiency determine outcomes.
Defensive metrics further favor Ateba Gautier: his 90% takedown defense creates a 21% advantage over Tre’ston Vines's estimated 70%, while his superior striking defense (52% vs ~48%) compounds the damage differential. These edges create a cumulative advantage that becomes increasingly difficult for Tre’ston Vines to overcome as the fight progresses.
⚡Risk Factors & Volatility Assessment
Despite Ateba Gautier's clear advantages, several factors introduce volatility: Tre’ston Vines's early powerremains legitimate with 6 career knockouts, including recent R1 finishes. His willingness to trade in pocket exchanges creates variance, particularly in the opening minutes when Ateba Gautier is still establishing distance and timing.
Short-notice dynamics cut both ways: while Tre’ston Vines lacks specific preparation for Ateba Gautier's style, he also brings unpredictability and fresh energy. His 4-fight win streak indicates current form, and the lack of extensive tape study could create early-round surprises.
UFC debut pressure affects both fighters differently: Ateba Gautier has proven UFC composure with two dominant finishes, while Tre’ston Vines faces the unknown of UFC-level intensity. However, his regional experience and recent activity suggest he's prepared for high-stakes competition.
🎯Key Battle Areas & Decisive Factors
Entry Defense & First Clean Land: Tre’ston Vines's historical R1 KO/TKO losses suggest vulnerability to early clean shots. Ateba Gautier's precision striking and reach advantage create optimal conditions for landing first, potentially fight-altering combinations.
Distance Management: The 30-foot cage amplifies Ateba Gautier's range advantages while forcingTre’ston Vines to cover significant ground to engage. This spatial dynamic favors Ateba Gautier's jab-cross combinations and step-in knees.
Takedown Insurance: Ateba Gautier's 90% takedown defense and strong clinch knees punish any level-change attempts by Tre’ston Vines, forcing the fight to remain in Ateba Gautier's preferred striking range where his technical advantages are maximized.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Market (BetOnline) compared to fair odds from our model
📊Market Odds (BetOnline)
🤖Analytical Model (Fair Odds)
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
Outcome distributions derived from the model
🏆Outcome Distribution - Ateba Gautier
Primary finishing path
Low frequency scenario
Control at range if no finish
💥Outcome Distribution - Tre’ston Vines
Early pocket exchanges
Opportunistic RNC path
Lower control profile at range
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Strong statistical edges with manageable volatility
✅Supporting Factors
- • Elite pace/accuracy profile: 6.93 SLpM with 61% accuracy
- • 90% first-layer takedown defense: Neutralizes wrestling threats
- • Proven early finishing power: Two UFC R1 finishes in 2025
- • Big-cage range control: 30ft cage amplifies reach advantages
- • Damage avoidance: 2.19 SApM vs opponent's ~3.8
- • UFC experience: Proven composure at highest level
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Tre’ston Vines's early power: 6 career KOs, recent R1 finishes
- • Short-notice uncertainty: 4-day prep creates unpredictability
- • Limited UFC minutes: Only 4:42 total UFC fight time
- • Pocket exchange variance: Power puncher's best window
- • UFC debut pressure: Unknown factor for opponent
🏁Executive Summary
This middleweight bout represents a clear stylistic mismatch favoring Ateba Gautier's proven UFC credentials and elite striking metrics against Tre’ston Vines's short-notice regional power. Ateba Gautier's decisive advantages in volume (+44% SLpM), precision (61% vs ~48% accuracy), and damage avoidance (2.19 vs ~3.8 SApM) create substantial technical edges that compound throughout the fight.
The 30-foot cage amplifies Ateba Gautier's range control advantages while Tre’ston Vines's historical vulnerability to early finishes (3 R1 KO/TKO losses) aligns poorly with Ateba Gautier's proven finishing ability. While Tre’ston Vines's power and short-notice unpredictability introduce volatility, the statistical disparities and stylistic dynamics strongly favor Ateba Gautier.
Prediction: The 78-22 probability split reflects Ateba Gautier's comprehensive advantages in striking metrics, defensive capabilities, and UFC experience. The most likely outcome is Ateba Gautier by KO/TKO in the early rounds, with his precision striking and reach advantages proving decisive against Tre’ston Vines's pressure-based approach. The 8.5/10 confidence level acknowledges Tre’ston Vines's power threat while recognizing the substantial technical and experiential gaps between the fighters.