Josh Emmett vs Youssef Zalal
Men's Featherweight Bout • UFC 320
Saturday, October 4, 2025
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Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Josh Emmett
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-05 | Lerone Murphy | L | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2023-12-16 | Bryce Mitchell | W | KO/TKO - Punch to Head At Distance (R1, 1:57) |
| 2023-06-24 | Ilia Topuria | L | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2023-02-11 | Yair Rodriguez | L | Submission - Triangle Choke (R2, 4:19) |
| 2022-06-18 | Calvin Kattar | W | Decision - Split (R5, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Youssef Zalal
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-15 | Calvin Kattar | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-11-02 | Jack Shore | W | Submission - Arm Triangle (R2, 0:59) |
| 2024-08-10 | Jarno Errens | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R1, 3:52) |
| 2024-03-23 | Billy Quarantillo | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R2, 1:50) |
| 2022-08-10 | Da'Mon Blackshear | D | Decision - Majority (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Youssef Zalal advantage: 36.4%Cardio Score
Youssef Zalal advantage: 20.6%Overall Rating
Youssef Zalal advantage: 27.6%📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (62 vs 78) and Grappling Composite (48 vs 72).
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score for a holistic view of capabilities combining skill and conditioning.
Striking Composite
Youssef Zalal advantage: 25.8%Grappling Composite
Youssef Zalal advantage: 50.0%🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of SLpM, StrAcc, StrDef, and Strikes Absorbed/Min to capture offensive output, precision, and defense.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from TD/15, TD Accuracy, TD Defense, and Sub/15 to evaluate takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven 3-round prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Range & Cage Dynamics
Large-cage dynamics heavily favor Zalal's distance control with a 4" height and 2" reach edge. The Moroccan's superior reach allows him to maintain optimal striking distance while keeping Emmett at bay with jabs and kicks. Emmett must aggressively close distance to land his power shots, which plays into Zalal's counter-striking and takedown opportunities. The height advantage also gives Zalal better leverage in clinch situations and improved takedown defense.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Emmett carries dangerous one-punch knockout power, but Zalal's superior technical foundation creates multiple paths to victory. The Moroccan's 51% striking accuracy vs Emmett's 36% demonstrates better shot selection and precision. Zalal's 67% strike defense vs Emmett's 60% shows superior defensive awareness, while his significantly lower strikes absorbed per minute (1.8 vs 4.46) indicates better defensive positioning and movement. The 1.32 submissions per 15 minutes vs Emmett's 0.07 creates a massive grappling advantage that compounds over three rounds.
🧩Key Battle Areas
The early rounds feature Emmett's explosive power vs Zalal's technical precision. Zalal must navigate the first 3-5 minutes carefully, using his reach to score points while avoiding Emmett's power shots. The clinch and ground phases heavily favor Zalal's superior grappling and submission skills. His ability to chain takedowns into back takes and submission attempts creates constant pressure that wears down Emmett's defensive wrestling. The later rounds see Zalal's cardio advantage and technical superiority become more pronounced as Emmett's power diminishes.
🏁Final Prediction
While Emmett possesses the one-shot power to end the fight at any moment, Zalal's superior technical skills, defensive awareness, and grappling advantage create a more reliable path to victory. The Moroccan's ability to control distance, score consistently, and threaten with submissions throughout the fight should accumulate enough points for a clear decision victory. However, Emmett's knockout power remains a constant threat that could dramatically alter the outcome in any exchange.
⚡Critical Factors
Zalal's 4-0-1 record in his last five fights shows he's peaking at the right time, while Emmett's 1-4 record in his last five suggests potential decline. The age gap (28 vs 40) could manifest in cardio and recovery between rounds. Zalal's superior takedown accuracy (31% vs 38%) combined with Emmett's lower takedown defense (47% vs 59%) creates a clear grappling advantage. The Moroccan's ability to mix striking and grappling seamlessly while maintaining defensive discipline gives him multiple ways to win rounds and control the fight tempo.
🏅 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
GOOD VALUE
Model: 40% | Market: N/A
FAIR VALUE
Model: 40% | Market: N/A
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 55% | Market: N/A
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Defensive split – Zalal's 67% strike defense and low 1.8 SApM may be undervalued.
- • Grappling tilt – 1.32 subs/15 into Emmett's 47% TDDef offers hidden finish equity.
- • KO volatility – Emmett's power preserves live underdog paths despite metrics.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis (3-Round Fight)
100 hypothetical fight simulations based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Emmett
One-shot power creates live finish lanes
Pressure-heavy minutes when closing distance
Limited submission offense historically
💥Outcome Distribution - Zalal
Chain wrestling to back takes and chokes
Distance control and minute winning
Selective power; finishes more often via subs
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (3 Round Fight)
⚡Window of Opportunity - Emmett
- • First 3–5 minutes: peak KO equity
- • Counter over level changes with uppercuts/hooks
- • Target body and legs to slow entries
🎯Progressive Dominance - Zalal
- • Minute-winning via jab, kicks, and range control
- • Mix clinch and takedowns into back takes
- • Manage risk after exchanges; force resets
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment (3-Round Fight)
Conviction level: 7/10 – Youth, precision, and grappling edge vs KO volatility
Confidence Level
Strong statistical lean to Zalal with early KO risk from Emmett
✅Supporting Factors
- • Zalal: +15% striking defense and far lower SApM
- • 1.32 subs/15 vs 47% TD defense mismatch
- • Youth and momentum (4-0-1 last five)
- • Better composite scores across the board
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Emmett's one-shot power remains live
- • Range closing could force pocket brawls
- • Variance in scrambles if Zalal over-extends
- • Aging fighter unpredictability vs surging prospect
🏁Executive Summary
Zalal's superior technical foundation, defensive awareness, and grappling expertise create a comprehensive path to victory over three rounds. The Moroccan's ability to control distance with his reach advantage, maintain defensive discipline, and threaten with submissions throughout the fight should accumulate enough points for a clear decision victory. While Emmett's knockout power remains a constant threat that could dramatically alter the outcome in any exchange, Zalal's superior cardio, technical skills, and strategic approach provide multiple ways to win rounds and control the fight tempo.
The fight dynamics heavily favor Zalal's methodical approach over Emmett's explosive power. The Moroccan's superior takedown accuracy, submission threat, and defensive positioning create constant pressure that wears down Emmett's defensive wrestling. As the fight progresses, Zalal's cardio advantage and technical superiority become more pronounced, while Emmett's power diminishes and his defensive gaps become more exploitable.
Prediction: Youssef Zalal by Submission (Round 2) or Decision (Unanimous).Live hedge: Emmett KO Round 1 (+400 or better). Confidence: 7/10 - Strong statistical lean to Zalal with early KO risk from Emmett's power.