Patchy Mix vs Jakub Wiklacz
Men's Bantamweight Bout • UFC 320
Saturday, October 4, 2025
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Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, complete fight history, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Patchy Mix
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-07 | Mario Bautista | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-05-17 | Magomed Magomedov | W | Decision - Split (R5, 5:00) |
| 2023-11-17 | Sergio Pettis | W | Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) (R2, 1:51) |
| 2023-04-22 | Raufeon Stots | W | KO/TKO (Knee) (R1, 1:20) |
| 2022-12-09 | Magomed Magomedov | W | Technical Submission (Guillotine) (R2, 2:39) |
Last 5 Fights - Jakub Wiklacz
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-07 | Sebastian Przybysz | W | Technical Submission (Guillotine) (R2, 3:14) |
| 2024-03-16 | Zuriko Jojua | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2023-09-16 | Sebastian Przybysz | D | Technical Decision - Unanimous Draw (R4, 4:15) |
| 2022-12-17 | Sebastian Przybysz | W | Decision - Split (R5, 5:00) |
| 2022-06-18 | Bruno Santos | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Patchy Mix advantage: 6.3%Cardio Score
Jakub Wiklacz advantage: 13.3%Overall Rating
Jakub Wiklacz advantage: 3.1%📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (70.0 vs 60.0) and Grappling Composite (95.0 vs 90.0). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Patchy Mix advantage: 16.7%Grappling Composite
Patchy Mix advantage: 5.6%Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven 3-round prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Range & Cage Dynamics
In the large UFC cage, Mix can pressure with volume and create clinch entries; Wiklacz's reach advantage helps early range control, but Mix's top game threatens once he closes distance.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Mix carries the striking-volume edge (8.13 SLpM, 40% Acc) and elite grappling conversions (65% submission wins), while Wiklacz brings better late-round durability and chain-wrestling (Sub/15 ≈ 1.5) for decision paths.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Early scrambles favor Mix's finishing threat; extended exchanges and deep waters favor Wiklacz. Leg entanglements and front-choke sequences are critical leverage points for both.
🏁Final Prediction
Minutes vs moments: Mix owns the finishing upside and early control; Wiklacz gains equity with time. Projection: Mix edges a submission or banks rounds with top control; Wiklacz live via decisions or rear-naked chains.
🏅 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
GOOD VALUE
Model: 40% | Market: N/A
FAIR VALUE
Model: 10% | Market: N/A
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 45% | Market: N/A
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Submission paths – Mix finishing equity may be underpriced.
- • Decision heaviness – Wiklacz's long-fight trend pushes totals pricing.
- • KO volatility – Mix has occasional KO shots; Wiklacz near-zero KO profile.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis (3-Round Fight)
100 hypothetical 3-round fight simulations based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Mix
Minute-winning via top control
Knee or ground-and-pound sequences
Front-chokes and back-takes
💥Outcome Distribution - Wiklacz
Chain wrestling to back control
Cage control and attrition
Low power profile
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (3 Round Fight)
⚡Window of Opportunity - Mix
- • First 5 minutes: Highest submission/KO equity before adjustments.
- • Front-choke lanes: Guillotine/D'Arce on level changes.
- • Sprawl and strike: Manage cage space to land knees.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Wiklacz
- • Minute winning: Jab, clinch, and mat returns rack up points.
- • Pace control: Grind against fence to tire Mix.
- • Back takes: Chain to RNC threats deep in fights.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment (3-Round Fight)
Conviction level: 7/10 — Mix finishing upside vs Wiklacz decision durability
Confidence Level
Solid edge for Mix with submission paths; volatility from late-round dynamics.
✅Supporting Factors
- • Higher SLpM with comparable accuracy
- • Grappling finishing pedigree (65% submissions)
- • Experience edge vs elite competition
- • KO threat that Wiklacz typically lacks
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Decision vulnerability (historical losses by decision)
- • Wiklacz late-round momentum in longer fights
- • Mix defensive gaps at high pace
- • Grappler-vs-grappler variance in scrambles
🏁Executive Summary
Mix owns the early finishing upside and superior submission pedigree; Wiklacz counters with reach, cardio, and decision equity. The model leans 65–35 toward Mix with submission and decision paths primary.
Prediction: Mix by Submission or Decision. Live hedge: Wiklacz by Decision.