Ramiz Brahimaj vs Austin Vanderford
Men's Welterweight Bout • UFC 320
Saturday, October 4, 2025
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Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Ramiz Brahimaj
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-31 | Billy Goff | W | Technical Submission - Guillotine Choke (R1, 3:16) |
| 2024-11-16 | Mickey Gall | W | KO/TKO - Punches (R1, 2:55) |
| 2024-05-18 | Themba Gorimbo | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-02-26 | Micheal Gillmore | W | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R1, 2:02) |
| 2022-01-15 | Court McGee | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Austin Vanderford
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-22 | Nikolay Veretennikov | W | TKO - Punches (R2, 4:13) |
| 2024-10-18 | Luiz Victor Romero | W | TKO - Punch and Elbows (R1, 1:05) |
| 2022-08-12 | Aaron Jeffery | L | TKO - Punches (R1, 1:25) |
| 2022-02-25 | Gegard Mousasi | L | TKO - Punches (R1, 1:25) |
| 2021-05-21 | Fabian Edwards | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Austin Vanderford advantage: 27.3%Cardio Score
Austin Vanderford advantage: 14.5%Overall Rating
Austin Vanderford advantage: 20.2%📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (40.3 vs 59.4) and Grappling Composite (59.8 vs 68.1). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Austin Vanderford advantage: 47.4%Grappling Composite
Austin Vanderford advantage: 13.9%Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven 3-round prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Range & Cage Dynamics
Vanderford's reach and accuracy keep the fight at favorable distance where his output advantage matters most, while Brahimaj must collapse space early to access grappling sequences.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Striking metrics favor Austin Vanderford (4.08 SLpM, 63% accuracy, 51% defense) over Ramiz Brahimaj (2.14 SLpM, 45% accuracy, 44% defense). The wrestling battle pivots on 100% TDDef for Vanderford against Brahimaj's 41% TDAcc and 1.7 subs/15.
🧩Key Battle Areas
First 3–4 minutes are most volatile for a Brahimaj submission; otherwise, expect Vanderford's jab, counters, and sprawl to stretch minutes and scorecards.
🏁Final Prediction
Minutes favor Vanderford; moments favor Brahimaj. Projection: Vanderford by Decision or KO/TKO as stuffing takedowns keeps the fight upright. Brahimaj's path is submission leverage early.
🏅 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
GOOD VALUE
Model: 30% | Market: N/A
FAIR VALUE
Model: 23% | Market: N/A
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 55% | Market: N/A
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Decision lanes undervalued – Vanderford's accuracy/TDD combo builds round equity.
- • Early sub volatility – Brahimaj submission risk keeps long positions cautious.
- • Sample size – Vanderford's limited UFC sample moderates stake sizing.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis (3-Round Fight)
100 hypothetical fight simulations based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Brahimaj
Decision path less common historically
Lower standing finishing profile
Primary path via clamps and back takes
💥Outcome Distribution - Vanderford
Clean entries create finishing chances
Minute-winning via accuracy and TDD
Occasional opportunistic finishes
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (3 Round Fight)
⚡Window of Opportunity - Brahimaj
- • First 3–4 minutes: Highest submission equity before reads settle.
- • Chain wrestling: Multiple shots to break the sprawl wall.
- • Clamp series: Front headlock ↔ back takes.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Vanderford
- • Minute winning: Jab, counters, and stance resets.
- • Pace control: Stuff and pivot off the fence.
- • Defense first: Exit the pocket after combinations.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment (3-Round Fight)
Conviction level: 7/10 – Accuracy and TDD advantages vs. live submission risk
Confidence Level
Solid edge for Vanderford in round‑winning with submission volatility from Brahimaj.
✅Supporting Factors
- • Higher SLpM with far better accuracy
- • Elite 100% takedown defense in sample
- • Better strikes absorbed per minute
- • Versatile win conditions (KO/TKO or decision)
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Early submission sequences from Brahimaj
- • Limited UFC minutes for Vanderford
- • Clinch scrambles creating back exposure
🏁Executive Summary
Vanderford owns the sustainable minute‑winning profile with superior striking efficiency and perfect takedown defense in sample. Brahimaj carries real early submission danger; if he cannot secure control positions, his decision pathway is limited.
Prediction: Vanderford by Decision or KO/TKO. Hedge: Brahimaj by Submission.