Ateba Gautier vs Ozzy Diaz
Men's Middleweight Bout • UFC 320
Saturday, October 4, 2025
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Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Ateba Gautier
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-19 | Robert Valentin | W | KO/TKO - Punches (R1, 1:00) |
| 2025-03-29 | Jose Medina | W | KO/TKO - Knee (R1, 2:30) |
| 2024-09-10 | Yura Naito | W | TKO - Punches (R2, 4:22) |
| 2023-12-02 | Carlos de Souza | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 1:45) |
| 2022-07-30 | Jan Lysak | W | KO - Punch (R1, 0:45) |
Last 5 Fights - Ozzy Diaz
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-08 | Djorden Santos | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-11-23 | Mingyang Zhang | L | TKO - Strikes (R1, 2:25) |
| 2024-05-01 | Bevon Lewis | W | TKO - Punches (R2, 3:12) |
| 2024-03-01 | Chuck Campbell | W | KO - Punch (R1, 1:20) |
| 2022-07-26 | Joe Pyfer | L | TKO - Punches (R2, 1:39) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (8.2/10 vs 6.8/10) and Grappling Composite (5.5/10 vs 4.0/10). Gauges complete technical skill set across striking and grappling.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate and finish profile. Diaz trends longer on average; Gautier sustains high output in shorter fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical and Cardio scores to provide a holistic capability rating.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted mix of SLpM, Accuracy, Defense, and Strikes Absorbed/Min to reflect overall striking effectiveness.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Built from TD/15, TD Accuracy, TD Defense, and Sub/15 to summarize grappling potential and defensive wrestling.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven 3-round prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Range & Damage Profile
Gautier dictates range with an 81" reach and 61% accuracy while absorbing just 2.19 strikes per minute. In open space he controls engagements and limits Diaz's counters.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Striking composite edge (8.2/10 vs 6.8/10) and superior takedown defense (90% vs 50%) protect Gautier's preferred fight geography. Diaz brings power and better raw striking defense but suffers from high damage intake (7.23 SApM).
🧩Key Battle Areas
Early finishing lanes for Gautier vs clinch/cage pressure attempts from Diaz. If Diaz survives the first five minutes, his longer average fight time can make later rounds more competitive.
🏁Final Prediction
Edges align with Gautier in accuracy, damage avoidance, and defensive wrestling. Projection: Gautier by KO/TKO most often, with decision as secondary if Diaz survives early power.
🏅 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
GOOD VALUE
Model: 58% | Market: N/A
FAIR VALUE
Model: 18% | Market: N/A
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 72% | Market: N/A
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis (3-Round Fight)
100 hypothetical 3-round fight simulations based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Ateba Gautier
Primary finishing route via clean power striking
Secondary path if Diaz survives early damage
Occasional club-and-sub scenarios only
💥Outcome Distribution - Ozzy Diaz
Power counters if he closes range
Late grind or clinch pressure path
Minimal submission equity
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (3 Round Fight)
⚡Window of Opportunity - Ozzy Diaz
- • First five minutes: highest KO equity before reads settle
- • Force clinch/cage exchanges to blunt range weapons
- • Counter jabs and kicks with straight rights
🎯Progressive Control - Ateba Gautier
- • Long-range sniping: jab, calf kick, right cross
- • Manage risk on exits; avoid pocket brawls
- • Defensive wrestling insurance to cool momentum
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Conviction level: 8/10 – Clear favorite dynamics with live power risk
Confidence Level
Statistical convergence points to Gautier with notable power volatility from Diaz.
✅Supporting Factors
- • 61% striking accuracy; only 2.19 SApM
- • 90% takedown defense (defensive insurance)
- • 7-fight win streak; 87.5% finish rate
- • Reach advantage and range control in big cage
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Diaz's power if range collapses
- • Gautier's limited deep-round sample size
- • Variance of middleweight power dynamics
🏁Executive Summary
The model favors Gautier 74–26 on the strength of superior precision and defensive metrics. Diaz remains live via power, especially early, but extended open-space striking favors the younger, faster fighter.
Prediction: Gautier by KO/TKO most frequently; decision viable if Diaz endures the early storm.