Macy Chiasson vs Yana Santos
Women's Bantamweight Bout • UFC 320
Saturday, October 4, 2025
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Macy Chiasson
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-05-31 | Ketlen Vieira | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-06-29 | Mayra Bueno Silva | W | TKO - Doctor Stoppage (cut) (R2, 1:58) |
| 2024-03-16 | Pannie Kianzad | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R1, 3:54) |
| 2022-09-10 | Irene Aldana | L | KO - Upkick to the Liver (R3, 2:21) |
| 2022-05-07 | Norma Dumont | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Yana Santos
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-03 | Miesha Tate | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-08-10 | Chelsea Chandler | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-07-01 | Karol Rosa | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-03-25 | Holly Holm | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2021-07-10 | Irene Aldana | L | KO/TKO - Ground & Pound (R1, 4:35) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (68 vs 79) and Grappling Composite (75 vs 62). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Macy Chiasson Key Advantages
Significant reach advantage (72" vs 68.5") and height edge allow control of striking distance
2.08 takedowns per 15min vs 0.87 - massive grappling pressure advantage
0.37 submissions per 15min vs 0.11 - constant submission danger
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Santos' superior striking accuracy (59% vs 46%) and Muay Thai power could punish takedown attempts
35% takedown accuracy means multiple failed attempts could lead to eating counters
📋 Likely Gameplan
Utilize reach advantage to set up takedowns, then control with superior grappling
Focus on getting to dominant positions and hunting for rear naked chokes
🚀 Yana Santos Key Advantages
Superior striking accuracy (59% vs 46%) and higher output (4.42 vs 3.49 SLpM)
Elite knockout power with 7 KO/TKO wins - dangerous in exchanges
More professional experience (25 vs 14 fights) in high-level competition
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Lower takedown defense (54% vs 71%) vulnerable to Chiasson's wrestling pressure
Must close distance to be effective, playing into Chiasson's clinch game
📋 Likely Gameplan
Use Muay Thai combinations and movement to avoid prolonged clinch exchanges
Stuff takedowns and punish failed attempts with heavy shots
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏆Technical Matchup
This women's bantamweight contest presents a classic striker versus grappler dynamic. Chiasson brings significant physical advantages with her 5-inch height and 3.5-inch reach edge, allowing her to control distance and set up her wrestling game. Her technical composite scores favor grappling (75 vs 62) while Santos holds the striking advantage (79 vs 68), creating an intriguing stylistic clash.
🎯Key Battle Areas
The fight will likely be determined by Chiasson's ability to implement her wrestling pressure (2.08 TD/15min) against Santos' takedown defense (54%). Santos' superior striking accuracy (59% vs 46%) and knockout power (44% finish rate via KO/TKO) provide her with clear paths to victory if she can keep the fight standing and capitalize on Chiasson's lower striking accuracy.
⚡Victory Scenarios
Chiasson's path to victory involves utilizing her reach advantage to close distance safely, implementing her wrestling pressure, and hunting for submissions (0.37 attempts per 15min vs 0.11). Santos must leverage her Muay Thai striking, maintain distance management, and look to counter Chiasson's takedown attempts with powerful strikes. The fight's outcome may hinge on Santos' ability to stuff takedowns and keep exchanges standing.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
GOOD VALUE
Model: 28% | Market: ~28%
FAIR VALUE
Model: 18% | Market: ~18%
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 52.4% | Market: 55.0%
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Chiasson
Primary path to victory via wrestling control
Ground and pound or clinch work finishes
Rear naked chokes and arm triangles
💥Outcome Distribution - Santos
Main finishing method - Muay Thai power
Volume striking and defensive boxing
Minimal submission threat historically
⏱️Fight Timeline Analysis
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level: 6/10 - Competitive matchup with multiple variables
✅Supporting Factors
- • Chiasson's significant physical advantages create clear grappling pathways
- • Statistical edge in grappling composite (75 vs 62) and submission threat
- • Santos' lower takedown defense (54%) vulnerable to wrestling pressure
- • Historical data shows Chiasson's effectiveness against striker types
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Santos' superior striking accuracy (59% vs 46%) and knockout power
- • Chiasson's low takedown accuracy (35%) may lead to failed attempts
- • Santos' experience advantage and recent win streak momentum
- • Women's bantamweight volatility - upsets are common
📋Executive Summary
This bantamweight clash presents a fascinating technical battle between Chiasson's wrestling-based game and Santos' striking power. Statistical analysis reveals contrasting strengths that create multiple viable paths to victory for both fighters. Chiasson's physical advantages and grappling superiority give her a slight edge, but Santos' knockout power and striking accuracy keep this fight competitive. The 57-43 probability split reflects the technical nature of this matchup, where execution and game plan adherence will likely determine the outcome. Expect a tactical battle that could swing either direction based on early momentum and successful implementation of each fighter's primary weapons.