Edmen Shahbazyan vs Andre Muniz
Men's Middleweight Bout • UFC 320
Saturday, October 4, 2025
Striker Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Grappler Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Edmen Shahbazyan
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-14 | Andre Petroski | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-02-15 | Dylan Budka | W | TKO - Right Hook (R1, 1:35) |
| 2024-08-24 | Gerald Meerschaert | L | Submission - Arm Triangle Choke (R2, 4:12) |
| 2024-03-23 | AJ Dobson | W | TKO - Left Hook to Ground Punches (R1, 4:33) |
| 2023-05-20 | Anthony Hernandez | L | TKO - Ground & Pound (R3, 1:01) |
Last 5 Fights - Andre Muniz
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-06 | Ikram Aliskerov | L | KO - Left Hook to Ground Punches (R1, 4:54) |
| 2023-12-09 | Jun Yong Park | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-07-22 | Paul Craig | L | TKO - Ground & Pound (R2, 4:40) |
| 2023-02-25 | Brendan Allen | L | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R3, 4:25) |
| 2022-07-02 | Uriah Hall | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (25 vs 75) and Grappling Composite (25 vs 75). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🥊 Edmen Shahbazyan Key Advantages
Elite one-shot knockout power with 10 KO/TKO wins - can end fights with single clean strike
Superior striking volume (3.74 vs 2.04 SLpM) creates constant offensive pressure
Significant age advantage (27 vs 35) and fast-twitch explosiveness in exchanges
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Prolonged ground exchanges could lead to submission vulnerability against Muniz's BJJ
Getting caught in the clinch could allow Muniz to work his superior wrestling game
📋 Likely Gameplan
Press the action early with power strikes before cardio disadvantage becomes factor
Use 66% TDD to maintain vertical base and avoid prolonged ground exchanges
🤼 Andre Muniz Key Advantages
Elite takedown volume (4.02 vs 1.69) and submission threat (1.19 vs 0.42) per 15 minutes
Significant reach advantage (78" vs 74") and better range control for striking distance
Superior striking defense (51% vs 49%) while absorbing less damage per minute
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Shahbazyan's knockout power could end the fight before grappling advantages take effect
If unable to close distance, Shahbazyan's volume striking could accumulate damage
📋 Likely Gameplan
Combine striking with takedown entries, chain attempts to overcome 66% TDD
Once on ground, prioritize control and submission attempts over ground strikes
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏆Championship Dynamics
This light heavyweight title rematch presents a fascinating tactical chess match between Ankalaev's methodical defensive approach and Pereira's knockout power. Having already defeated the champion once, Ankalaev enters with both psychological and tactical advantages. His superior defensive metrics (57% striking defense vs 54%) and exceptional takedown defense (88% vs 79%) create a defensive fortress that has proven difficult for power strikers to penetrate consistently.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals contrasting strengths that could determine the outcome. Muniz's grappling advantage is overwhelming - his 4.02 takedowns per 15 minutes versus Shahbazyan's 1.69 demonstrates superior wrestling pressure, while his 1.19 submission attempts per 15 minutes versus Shahbazyan's 0.42 shows a constant threat on the ground. However, Shahbazyan's 83% higher striking output (3.74 vs 2.04 SLpM) and 75% finish rate create legitimate knockout danger in every exchange.
⚡Key Battle Areas
The fight will likely be determined by three critical phases: the opening minutes where Shahbazyan's youth and explosiveness are most dangerous; the grappling exchanges where Muniz's superior takedown volume (4.02 vs 1.69 per 15min) meets Shahbazyan's respectable 66% takedown defense; and the later rounds where experience and cardio could favor the veteran Brazilian. Muniz's reach advantage (78" vs 74") provides additional tactical options for controlling distance and setting up takedown entries.
🏁Final Prediction
While Shahbazyan possesses legitimate finishing ability and youth advantages, Muniz's comprehensive grappling skillset and superior defensive metrics give him the edge in a three-round contest. The Brazilian's ability to mix striking with takedown pressure, combined with his submission threat once on the ground, creates multiple pathways to victory. Expect Muniz to weather early storms and impose his grappling game as the fight progresses, likely winning by submission in the second round or via decision if it goes the distance.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
GOOD VALUE
Model: 27% | Market: ~28.0%
FAIR VALUE
Model: 38% | Market: ~37.0%
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 41.7% | Market: 55.6%
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overvalues Shahbazyan's KO power - Market doesn't fully account for grappling vulnerability
- • Undervalues Muniz's submission threat - 38% submission win rate not properly priced
- • Recency bias toward striking - Market overreacts to Shahbazyan's last KO win
- • Ignores takedown volume statistics - Muniz's 4.02 vs 1.69 TD/15min creates value
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🥊Outcome Distribution - Shahbazyan
Main finishing method - one-shot power
Less likely due to cardio disadvantage
Minimal submission threat historically
🤼Outcome Distribution - Muniz
Primary path to victory via grappling
Control-based path via takedowns
Extremely low knockout threat
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Shahbazyan
- • First 8 minutes: Maximum power and speed advantage
- • Round 1: 78% of his finishes occur in first round
- • Stand-up exchanges: Must avoid clinch and takedown attempts
- • Energy management: Can't afford extended grappling
🎯Progressive Dominance - Muniz
- • Round 2+: Experience and grappling pressure emerge
- • Accumulation: Takedown attempts wear down TDD over time
- • Submission threat: Constant danger once on ground
- • Late finish: Higher submission rate in rounds 2-3
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence rating: 7/10 - Competitive rematch with multiple variables
Confidence Level
High confidence due to clear stylistic advantages
✅Supporting Factors
- • Muniz's grappling dominance (+138%)
- • Superior submission rate (1.19 vs 0.42)
- • Strong takedown volume (4.02 vs 1.69)
- • Better defensive metrics overall
- • Historical submission threat patterns
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Shahbazyan's early knockout power
- • 8-year age difference favors younger
- • 66% takedown defense is respectable
- • Youth and explosiveness factors
- • Middleweight division volatility
🏁Executive Summary
This middleweight clash presents a classic grappler vs striker dynamic with clear statistical advantages favoring Muniz's comprehensive ground game. While Shahbazyan possesses legitimate knockout power and youth advantages, Muniz's 138% takedown volume advantage (4.02 vs 1.69 per 15min) and elite submission threat (1.19 vs 0.42 attempts) create multiple pathways to victory in a three-round contest.
The betting market appears correctly priced, with our model aligning closely with market odds. However, slight value exists in specific method props, particularly Muniz's submission victory at +170, which offers fair value given his 38% historical submission rate and stylistic advantages against a striker with limited ground defense.
Prediction: Expect a competitive opening round where Shahbazyan's power creates early danger, followed by progressive grappling control from Muniz. The Brazilian's experience, reach advantage, and submission skills should ultimately prevail, likely via submission in round 2 or decision victory if the fight goes the distance. Our 65-35 split reflects both the quality of opposition and the clear stylistic advantages that favor the veteran grappler.