Jiri Prochazka vs Khalil Rountree Jr
Light Heavyweight Division • UFC 320
Saturday, October 4, 2025
Former Champion Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Contender Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Jiri Prochazka
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | Jamahal Hill | W | TKO - Ground & Pound (R3, 3:01) |
| 2024-06-29 | Alex Pereira | L | TKO - Head Kick (R2, 0:13) |
| 2024-04-13 | Aleksandar Rakic | W | TKO - Ground & Pound (R2, 3:17) |
| 2023-11-11 | Alex Pereira | L | KO/TKO - Left Hook to Hammerfists (R2, 4:08) |
| 2022-06-11 | Glover Teixeira | W | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R5, 4:32) |
Last 5 Fights - Khalil Rountree Jr
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-21 | Jamahal Hill | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2024-10-05 | Alex Pereira | L | TKO - Uppercuts (R4, 4:32) |
| 2023-12-09 | Anthony Smith | W | KO/TKO - Uppercut-Left Hook Combo (R3, 0:56) |
| 2023-08-12 | Chris Daukaus | W | TKO - Straight Left (R1, 2:40) |
| 2022-10-29 | Dustin Jacoby | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
📊Technical Score Methodology
Prochazka: 69/100 | Rountree: 34/100
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (55 vs 47) and Grappling Composite (82 vs 21). Prochazka's superior striking (55 vs 47) and overwhelming grappling advantage (82 vs 21) give him the decisive technical edge.
💪Cardio Score Methodology
Prochazka: 100/100 | Rountree: 61/100
Based on average fight duration (Prochazka: 10.8 vs Rountree: 9.5 min), striking rate per minute (5.74 vs 3.79), submission rate, and finish rate. Prochazka's proven ability to maintain 5.74 SLpM across 25-minute fights demonstrates elite cardio conditioning.
🎯Overall Rating Breakdown
Prochazka: 84.5/100 | Rountree: 47.5/100
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Prochazka's comprehensive advantages in both technical skills and conditioning create a massive 37-point gap. This reflects his elite status as a former champion with proven ability to dominate across all aspects of MMA.
🥊Striking Composite Analysis
Prochazka: 55/100 | Rountree: 47/100
Calculated from SLpM (5.74 vs 3.79), striking accuracy (56% vs 41%), and striking defense (43% vs 50%). Prochazka's superior volume and accuracy outweigh Rountree's defensive edge, creating an 8-point advantage that compounds over three rounds of sustained pressure.
🤼Grappling Composite Analysis
Prochazka: 82/100 | Rountree: 21/100
Based on takedown accuracy (50% vs 0%), takedown defense (85% vs 50%), and submission rate (0.8 vs 0.0 per 15min). Prochazka's proven grappling credentials and submission victory over Teixeira create a massive 61-point advantage that provides crucial backup options when striking exchanges become dangerous.
Technical Radar Comparison
Technical Metrics Explanation
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🥊Striking Dynamics
This light heavyweight bout presents a fascinating contrast in striking philosophies. Prochazka's overwhelming volume advantage (5.74 vs 3.79 SLpM) combined with superior accuracy (56% vs 41%) creates a statistical chasm that defines the fight's trajectory. His awkward, unpredictable angles and high-tempo approach have consistently broken down elite competition, while his proven cardio (100/100 score) allows him to maintain this pace across all three rounds.
🎯Technical Analysis
The technical disparity is stark: Prochazka's 6.9/10 technical score versus Rountree's 3.4/10 reflects not just skill difference but tactical versatility. Prochazka's grappling composite (82/100) provides crucial backup plans when striking exchanges become dangerous, evidenced by his submission victory over Teixeira. Rountree's 47/100 striking composite, while lower overall, conceals his elite knockout power - 7 first-round UFC finishes demonstrate his ability to end fights instantly.
⚡Fight Timeline Considerations
The 3-round format heavily favors Prochazka's approach. His ability to maintain 5.74 strikes per minute while absorbing only 5.70 creates a sustainable pace that compounds over 15 minutes. Rountree's defensive improvements (50% striking defense vs Prochazka's 43%) offer brief windows, but his 3.79 SLpM output rate suggests he cannot match Prochazka's relentless pressure across three full rounds without risking cardio depletion.
🔮Victory Scenarios
Prochazka's path to victory involves implementing his signature chaos-control gameplan: overwhelming Rountree with volume and unpredictable attack angles while weathering early power shots. His 96.8% career finish rate indicates he rarely needs the scorecards when executing his system effectively. For Rountree, success requires perfect timing within the first 7-10 minutes - his southpaw left kick and hook counters must find their mark before Prochazka's pace and accumulated damage take effect. The statistical model heavily favors Prochazka's proven formula over Rountree's more singular path to victory.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
Market Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
GOOD VALUE
Model: 45% | Market: ~45%
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 55% | Market: 55%
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 22% | Market: ~22%
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Perfect alignment on main event odds - Market accurately prices Prochazka's statistical advantages
- • Correct assessment of finish probability - Both fighters' finish rates properly reflected in under/over lines
- • Appropriate power pricing - Rountree's KO odds align with his 7 first-round UFC finishes
- • Volume vs power narrative accurate - Market correctly weighs Prochazka's pace against Rountree's power
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Prochazka
64.3% of his wins | Primary finishing method
21.4% of his wins | Grappling versatility
14.3% of his wins | Pace control
💥Outcome Distribution - Rountree
73.3% of his wins | Elite power shots
20% of his wins | Point fighting
No historical submission finishes
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Rountree
- • First 0-7 minutes: Maximum power output and speed advantages
- • Round 1: 64% of his finishes occur in opening frame
- • Southpaw timing: Left kick/hook counters to Prochazka's entries
- • Early aggression: Must capitalize before pace differential emerges
🎯Progressive Control - Prochazka
- • Round 2+: Volume accumulation creates defensive breakdowns
- • Pace attrition: 5.74 SLpM rate unsustainable for opponents
- • Grappling threat: Constant TD/submission danger throughout
- • Cardio advantage: 100/100 score dominates in later minutes
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
High confidence based on comprehensive statistical advantages
✅Supporting Factors
- • Decisive volume advantage (5.74 vs 3.79 SLpM)
- • Superior accuracy differential (+15%)
- • Elite cardio score (100 vs 61)
- • Grappling versatility (82 vs 21 composite)
- • 3-round format favors pace fighter
- • 96.8% finish rate demonstrates closing ability
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Rountree's elite knockout power (7 R1 finishes)
- • Southpaw angle creates timing disruption
- • Superior striking defense (50% vs 43%)
- • Prochazka's occasional defensive lapses
- • Light heavyweight division volatility
- • Early finish potential always present
🏁Executive Summary
This light heavyweight bout presents a classic volume-versus-power dynamic with clear statistical advantages favoring Jiri Prochazka. The Czech striker's overwhelming superiority in output rate (51.4% higher), striking accuracy (+36.6%), and cardio capacity creates multiple pathways to victory across 15 minutes. His technical score advantage (6.9 vs 3.4) and grappling versatility (82 vs 21 composite) provide crucial backup options when exchanges become dangerous.
However, Rountree's 7 first-round UFC finishes and southpaw power punching represent genuine knockout threats that cannot be discounted. His improved striking defense (50% vs 43%) and patient counter-striking style have evolved significantly, creating windows of opportunity against Prochazka's sometimes reckless aggression. The 16% decision probability reflects the likelihood of extended exchanges where Prochazka's advantages compound.
Final Assessment: While Rountree possesses the power to end this fight instantly, Prochazka's comprehensive statistical dominance, proven finishing ability (96.8% rate), and cardio advantages create a 70-30 probability split that accurately reflects the matchup dynamics. The 7/10 confidence rating acknowledges both the statistical clarity and the inherent volatility of light heavyweight power punching. Expect Prochazka to implement his chaos-control gameplan effectively, weathering early storms to secure a mid-to-late finish.