Joe Pyfer vs Abu Magomedov
UFC Middleweight Division • UFC 320
Saturday, October 4, 2025
Striker Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Grappler Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Joe Pyfer
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-07 | Kelvin Gastelum | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-06-29 | Marc-André Barriault | W | TKO - Overhand Right (R1, 1:25) |
| 2024-02-10 | Jack Hermansson | L | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2023-10-07 | Abdul Razak Alhassan | W | Submission - Arm-Triangle Choke (R2, 2:05) |
| 2022-07-26 | Ozzy Diaz | W | TKO - Left Hook & Ground Strikes (R2, 1:39) |
Last 5 Fights - Abu Magomedov
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-26 | Michel Pereira | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-10-26 | Brunno Ferreira | W | Submission - Arm-Triangle Choke (R3, 3:14) |
| 2024-05-18 | Warlley Alves | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-11-04 | Caio Borralho | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-07-01 | Sean Strickland | L | TKO - Punches (R2, 4:20) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (50 vs 50) and Grappling Composite (25 vs 75). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Both fighters show similar cardiovascular conditioning and fight pace management.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Magomedov's grappling expertise gives him a significant edge in overall MMA skill set despite equal striking capabilities.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Both fighters show equal overall striking effectiveness with different approaches - Pyfer's power vs Magomedov's precision.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Magomedov's massive 200% advantage reflects his elite Dagestani wrestling background and superior grappling credentials.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
💥 Joe Pyfer Key Advantages
Elite knockout power with 64% of wins via KO/TKO. Superior power differential (+0.54 SLpM-SApM) creates constant finishing threat
12 of 14 wins come in first two rounds - explosive start could overwhelm Magomedov before grappling game develops
0.68 submission attempts per 15min vs 0.22 - guillotine and kimura threats if Magomedov shoots carelessly
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Magomedov's superior grappling and 2.65 TD/15min could neutralize power advantage through position control
3" reach deficit could force Pyfer into range where Magomedov can utilize superior jab and takedown setups
📋 Likely Gameplan
Open with low kicks and overhand rights to force high guard, prevent clinch with underhooks
Use guillotine as "scare tactic" when Magomedov shoots, maintain fight on feet where power advantage is maximized
🤼 Abu Magomedov Key Advantages
Elite Dagestani wrestling with 2.65 TD/15min at 57% accuracy - massive grappling composite advantage (75 vs 25)
Superior reach with better striking accuracy (48% vs 43%) - can control distance and set up takedown entries
Massive experience edge (35 vs 17 fights) with longer average fight duration - proven ability to weather early storms
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Pyfer's explosive power and 78% early finish rate could end fight before grappling advantages develop
Careless takedown attempts could expose neck to Pyfer's guillotine threat (3x more submission attempts)
📋 Likely Gameplan
Vary jab-straight combinations with takedown feints, use reach advantage to set up single-leg entries
Combine level changes with body lock against cage, drain Pyfer's explosive energy through controlled ground-and-pound
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Executive Summary
⚡Power vs Control Dynamic
This middleweight clash represents the classic power striker vs grappler matchup that has defined many memorable UFC contests. Pyfer brings explosive finishing ability with an 86% finish rate and devastating early power, evidenced by 78% of his wins occurring in the first two rounds. His +0.54 power differential (SLpM-SApM) creates constant danger, while his submission threat (0.68 attempts per 15min) adds another dimension.
🤼Grappling Supremacy
Magomedov's Dagestani wrestling credentials create a massive 200% grappling advantage (75 vs 25 composite score). His 2.65 takedowns per 15 minutes at 57% accuracy, combined with superior reach (78" vs 75") and striking precision (48% vs 43%), provide multiple paths to neutralize Pyfer's power through positional control and volume accumulation.
🎯Key Battle Phases
The fight's outcome hinges on the critical first 7 minutes where Pyfer's explosive power meets Magomedov's defensive grappling. Statistical analysis shows Pyfer's 60% takedown defense creates vulnerability windows that Magomedov's elite wrestling can exploit. However, the Dagestani's carefulness around submissions (only 0.22 attempts per 15min) suggests he may struggle if caught in scrambles with Pyfer's guillotine threat.
🔮Probabilistic Breakdown
Our 100-fight simulation model heavily weights Pyfer's early finishing ability and power advantage, resulting in a 65-35 split that reflects both his explosive potential and Magomedov's proven durability. The model accounts for Pyfer's 45% KO probability, 10% submission threat, and 10% decision path, while acknowledging Magomedov's 18% decision advantage through superior cardio and experience in longer fights.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
Market Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
GOOD VALUE
Model: 45% | Market: 45%
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 62% | Market: 62%
FAIR BET
Model: 18% | Market: ~18%
📈Market Assessment
- • Efficient pricing - Market accurately reflects model probabilities
- • Power vs Grappling understood - Proper weighting of Pyfer's early finish threat
- • Experience factored - Magomedov's veteran status appropriately valued
- • No significant edges - Both fighters priced according to statistical analysis
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
💥Outcome Distribution - Pyfer
69% of his wins | Primary threat weapon
15% of his wins | Guillotine threat
15% of his wins | Rare but possible
🤼Outcome Distribution - Magomedov
51% of his wins | Control & volume
29% of his wins | Counter-striking
20% of his wins | Ground control
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (3 Rounds)
⚡Window of Opportunity - Pyfer
- • First 7 minutes: Maximum power advantage and explosive threat
- • Rounds 1-2: 78% of his finishes occur in this timeframe
- • Early aggression: Must overwhelm before wrestling develops
- • Submission setup: Use guillotine to deter takedown attempts
🎯Progressive Control - Magomedov
- • Survive early storm: Weather first 7 minutes of power
- • Accumulate control: 2.65 TD/15min pressure builds over time
- • Experience advantage: 35 vs 17 pro fights shows in later rounds
- • Decision path: 51% of wins via decision through control
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
High confidence due to clear stylistic advantages
✅Supporting Factors
- • Pyfer's explosive power advantage
- • 86% finish rate and early threat
- • Clear statistical power differential
- • Magomedov's vulnerable TDD (60%)
- • Historical power vs grappler patterns
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Magomedov's 200% grappling advantage
- • Experience edge (35 vs 17 fights)
- • Superior reach and precision
- • Proven ability to weather storms
- • Middleweight power can be neutralized
🏁Executive Summary
This middleweight clash presents a textbook power striker vs elite grappler dynamic with clear statistical support for Pyfer's 65% win probability. His explosive finishing ability (86% finish rate) and superior power differential (+0.54 SLpM-SApM) create legitimate early finish threats that Magomedov's 60% takedown defense may struggle to contain in the critical first 7 minutes.
However, Magomedov's massive grappling advantage (200% composite superiority) and veteran experience (35 vs 17 professional fights) provide a clear path to victory through positional control and decision grinding. His 2.65 TD/15min pressure combined with superior reach (78" vs 75") creates multiple tactical advantages if he survives the early storm.
Final Prediction: Pyfer's boom-or-bust style and proven early finishing ability make him the rightful favorite, but Magomedov's proven durability and elite grappling credentials keep this from being a complete mismatch. The 7/10 confidence reflects the clear statistical edges while acknowledging the inherent volatility of power vs control matchups in MMA's middleweight division.