Merab Dvalishvili vs Cory Sandhagen
UFC Bantamweight Championship • UFC 320
Saturday, October 4, 2025
Champion Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Challenger Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Merab Dvalishvili
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-07 | Sean O'Malley | W | Submission - North South Choke (R3, 4:42) |
| 2025-01-18 | Umar Nurmagomedov | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2024-09-14 | Sean O'Malley | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2024-02-17 | Henry Cejudo | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-03-11 | Petr Yan | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Cory Sandhagen
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-03 | Deiveson Figueiredo | W | TKO - Knee Injury (R2, 4:08) |
| 2024-08-03 | Umar Nurmagomedov | L | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2023-08-05 | Rob Font | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2023-03-25 | Marlon Vera | W | Decision - Split (R5, 5:00) |
| 2022-09-17 | Song Yadong | W | Doctor Stoppage (Cut) (R4, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (74 vs 82) and Grappling Composite (95 vs 50). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Merab Dvalishvili Key Advantages
Historic takedown volume (5.84 vs 1.28 per 15min) creates relentless pressure that breaks opponents
Proven ability to perform under championship pressure with historic win streak
Elite conditioning allows relentless pace for full 25 minutes - drowns opponents late
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Sandhagen's height/reach advantage and switch stance could frustrate takedown entries
Linear takedown entries vulnerable to Sandhagen's intercepting knees and elbows
📋 Likely Gameplan
Expect 12-15 takedown attempts per round, overwhelming Sandhagen's 63% defense
Use collar-tie and inside trips to force clinch work and drain Sandhagen's energy
🚀 Cory Sandhagen Key Advantages
Significant size advantage allows distance control and makes takedowns more difficult
Elite finishing ability vs Dvalishvili's 25% - dangerous throughout entire fight
Switch stance creates angles and timing disruption for takedown defense
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Prolonged fence wrestling could sap energy and limit striking opportunities
Dvalishvili's superior cardio could become decisive in rounds 4-5
📋 Likely Gameplan
Circle on big cage, use front kicks and jabs to keep Dvalishvili at range
Punish takedown entries with knees, elbows, and spinning attacks
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏆Championship Dynamics
This bantamweight title defense represents the classic wrestler vs striker matchup that has defined many championship bouts. Dvalishvili brings unparalleled wrestling volume (5.84 takedowns per 15 minutes) and championship momentum with his historic 13-fight win streak. His ability to maintain relentless pressure for 25 minutes has proven decisive against elite competition, including victories over former champions Sean O'Malley and Henry Cejudo.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals a fascinating contrast in fighting philosophies. Dvalishvili's 356% advantage in takedown volume creates overwhelming pressure that historically breaks down opponents' defensive systems. However, Sandhagen's 61.1% finish rate compared to Dvalishvili's 25% presents constant danger throughout the fight. Sandhagen's 5-inch height and 2-inch reach advantages, combined with his switch stance versatility, create legitimate pathways to victory through distance management and counter-striking.
⚡Key Battle Areas
The fight will likely be determined in three critical phases: the initial exchanges where Sandhagen's reach advantage and switch stance could establish early striking success; the grappling transitions where Dvalishvili's relentless chain wrestling meets Sandhagen's 63% takedown defense; and the championship rounds where Dvalishvili's superior cardio score (90 vs 85) and proven 25-minute pace could become decisive. Sandhagen's ability to finish fights in any round keeps him dangerous throughout, while Dvalishvili's pressure typically compounds over time.
🔮Victory Scenarios
Dvalishvili's path to victory involves successfully implementing his signature pressure wrestling game, weathering Sandhagen's early striking attempts, and gradually wearing down his opponent's takedown defense through sheer volume. His championship experience and proven ability to maintain pace in hostile environments give him clear advantages in the later rounds.
Conversely, Sandhagen must leverage his physical advantages and finishing ability early and often. His superior reach, switch stance versatility, and elite finishing rate create windows for victory throughout the fight. The key for Sandhagen is avoiding extended clinch exchanges while maximizing his striking opportunities and counter-attack potential when Dvalishvili attempts takedowns.
🏁Final Prediction
While Sandhagen possesses legitimate pathways to victory through his physical advantages and finishing ability, Dvalishvili's championship pedigree, wrestling dominance, and proven ability to maintain relentless pressure for 25 minutes give him the statistical edge. The 62-38 split reflects both the quality of opposition and the championship variables at play. Expect a competitive, tactical battle that showcases elite wrestling versus dynamic striking, with the winner likely emerging through either Dvalishvili's grinding pressure or Sandhagen's explosive finishing sequences.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
Market Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
GOOD VALUE
Model: 20% | Market: 20%
FAIR VALUE
Model: 48% | Market: 48%
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 70% | Market: 70%
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Model aligns with market pricing - Efficient market reflects statistical reality
- • Sandhagen's finishing ability - 61.1% finish rate creates legitimate knockout value
- • Championship rounds favor Dvalishvili - Superior cardio and wrestling pressure
- • Decision props well-priced - Both fighters have paths to scorecards victory
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Dvalishvili
77.4% of his wins | Primary path to victory
14.5% of his wins | Ground control threat
8.1% of his wins | Rare but possible
💥Outcome Distribution - Sandhagen
52.6% of his wins | Main finishing method
36.8% of his wins | Volume striking path
10.5% of his wins | Opportunistic threat
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Sandhagen
- • First 10 minutes: Maximum physical advantages and TDD effectiveness
- • Rounds 1-2: 50% of his finishes occur in early rounds
- • Distance control: Must utilize reach and switch stance early
- • Counter striking: Punish takedown entries with knees and elbows
🎯Progressive Dominance - Dvalishvili
- • Round 3+: Cardio and wrestling pressure advantages emerge
- • Accumulation: Chain wrestling wears down TDD over time
- • Control time: Grinding out rounds on scorecards
- • Late pressure: Historic ability to maintain pace for 25 minutes
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
High confidence due to clear statistical advantages
✅Supporting Factors
- • Dvalishvili's championship experience
- • Historic 13-fight win streak
- • 356% advantage in takedown volume
- • Superior cardio for 5 rounds
- • Proven pressure wrestling system
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Sandhagen's 5" height advantage
- • Superior finishing ability (61.1% vs 25%)
- • Switch stance creates angles
- • Dangerous counter-striker
- • Physical reach advantages
🏁Executive Summary
This bantamweight championship bout represents a fascinating tactical chess match between Dvalishvili's elite wrestling volume and championship experience against Sandhagen's superior physical attributes and finishing ability. While Dvalishvili's 356% advantage in takedown volume (5.84 vs 1.28 per 15 minutes) and proven ability to maintain relentless pressure for 25 minutes create clear pathways to victory, Sandhagen's 5-inch height advantage, 2-inch reach advantage, and 61.1% finish rate present legitimate threats throughout the fight.
The betting market appears efficiently priced, with our model aligning closely with market probabilities. Dvalishvili's championship pedigree and historic win streak provide psychological advantages that complement his statistical dominance in wrestling metrics. However, Sandhagen's switch stance versatility and proven ability to finish fights in multiple ways keep him dangerous throughout all five rounds.
Prediction: This fight likely comes down to whether Sandhagen can utilize his physical advantages and finishing ability to overcome Dvalishvili's relentless wrestling pressure and superior championship conditioning. The 62-38 probability split reflects the genuine quality of both fighters while acknowledging Dvalishvili's proven championship formula. Expect a competitive, technical battle that showcases the highest level of bantamweight mixed martial arts, with the winner likely emerging through either Dvalishvili's grinding pressure or Sandhagen's explosive counter-striking sequences.