Magomed Ankalaev vs Alex Pereira
UFC Light Heavyweight Championship • UFC 320
Saturday, October 4, 2025
Challenger Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Former Champion Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Magomed Ankalaev
Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
---|---|---|---|
2025-03-08 | Alex Pereira | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
2024-10-26 | Aleksandar Rakić | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
2024-01-13 | Johnny Walker | W | KO/TKO - Right Hook-Uppercut (R2, 2:42) |
2023-10-21 | Johnny Walker | NC | No Contest (Accidental Illegal Knee) (R1, 3:13) |
2022-12-10 | Jan Błachowicz | D | Split Decision (R5, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Alex Pereira
Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
---|---|---|---|
2025-03-08 | Magomed Ankalaev | L | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
2024-10-05 | Khalil Rountree Jr. | W | TKO - Uppercuts (R4, 4:32) |
2024-06-29 | Jiří Procházka | W | TKO - Head Kick (R2, 0:13) |
2024-04-13 | Jamahal Hill | W | TKO - Left Hook to Ground Strikes (R1, 3:14) |
2023-11-11 | Jiří Procházka | W | TKO - Left Hook to Hammerfists & Elbows (R2, 4:08) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (89.7 vs 91.3) and Grappling Composite (61.5 vs 75.9). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Magomed Ankalaev Key Advantages
Elite defensive striking (57% vs 54%) and takedown defense (88% vs 79%) create fortress-like protection
Superior cardio score (80.2 vs 56.5) and proven five-round durability in championship fights
0.80 takedowns per 15min vs 0.11 - can pressure and control fight geography when needed
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Pereira's knockout power (83% finish rate) and reach advantage create danger in pocket exchanges
Must weather Pereira's early power and precision before cardio advantages take effect
📋 Likely Gameplan
Use superior defensive metrics to slip strikes and counter with calculated precision
Survive early danger and push pace in rounds 4-5 where cardio advantage becomes decisive
🚀 Alex Pereira Key Advantages
Elite one-shot knockout power with 10 KO/TKO wins - can end fight with single clean strike
Superior striking accuracy (62% vs 53%) and volume (5.00 vs 3.66 SLpM) create constant pressure
Significant reach advantage (79" vs 75") and height edge allow control of striking distance
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Cardio disadvantage becomes critical in championship rounds where Ankalaev thrives
Ankalaev's wrestling volume and superior takedown defense could neutralize striking advantages
📋 Likely Gameplan
Press the action early with power strikes before cardio disadvantage becomes factor
Utilize reach advantage to keep Ankalaev at distance and pick shots with precision
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏆Championship Dynamics
This light heavyweight title rematch presents a fascinating tactical chess match between Ankalaev's methodical defensive approach and Pereira's explosive knockout power. Having already defeated Pereira once via unanimous decision, Ankalaev enters with both psychological and tactical advantages. His superior defensive metrics (57% striking defense vs 54%) and exceptional takedown defense (88% vs 79%) create a defensive fortress that has proven difficult for power strikers to penetrate.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals contrasting strengths that could determine the outcome. Ankalaev's 42% cardio advantage (80.2 vs 56.5) becomes increasingly important in championship rounds, while his wrestling pressure (0.80 vs 0.11 takedowns per 15 minutes) provides alternative pathways to victory. However, Pereira's striking advantages are substantial: 17% better accuracy (62% vs 53%), 37% higher volume (5.00 vs 3.66 SLpM), and devastating knockout power with an 83% finish rate.
⚡Key Battle Areas
The fight will likely be determined by timing and conditioning. Pereira's window of opportunity exists primarily in the first three rounds, where his power and reach advantage (79" vs 75") are most effective. His ability to land clean shots early could negate Ankalaev's late-round advantages. Conversely, Ankalaev's path to victory involves weathering the early storm, utilizing his superior defensive metrics to minimize damage, and pushing the pace in championship rounds where his cardio superiority becomes decisive.
🏁Final Prediction
While Pereira possesses the tools to score a knockout victory and his striking advantages are legitimate, Ankalaev's proven ability to neutralize his opponent's power, combined with superior defensive metrics and championship-level cardio, gives him the slight edge. The 54-46 split reflects the quality of both fighters and the multiple pathways each has to victory. Expect a tactical battle where Ankalaev's patience and defensive discipline ultimately prevail over Pereira's explosive but potentially unsustainable early aggression, likely resulting in a decision victory for the challenger.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
Popular Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
GOOD VALUE
Model: 28% | Market: ~28%
FAIR VALUE
Model: 37% | Market: ~37%
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 58.3% | Market: 55%
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Ankalaev
Primary path to victory via cardio and defense
Counter-striking opportunities in later rounds
Rare but possible via wrestling pressure
💥Outcome Distribution - Pereira
Main finishing method - one-shot power
Less likely due to cardio disadvantage
Minimal submission threat historically
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level: 6/10 - Competitive rematch with multiple variables
🏁Executive Summary
This light heavyweight championship rematch presents a fascinating tactical battle between proven championship-level fighters. Ankalaev's previous victory over Pereira provides both psychological and tactical advantages, but Pereira's knockout power ensures that every exchange carries potential fight-ending consequences.
The statistical analysis favors Ankalaev's defensive metrics and superior cardio, particularly in championship rounds where his 42% cardio advantage becomes decisive. However, Pereira's 17% striking accuracy advantage and 83% finish rate create legitimate pathways to victory, especially in the early rounds.
Prediction: Ankalaev's proven ability to neutralize Pereira's power, combined with superior defensive metrics and championship conditioning, gives him the edge in a competitive rematch. Expect a tactical battle where defensive discipline and late-round cardio ultimately prevail, likely resulting in a decision victory for the challenger to claim his first UFC championship.