Title Fight • 5 Rounds

Magomed Ankalaev vs Alex Pereira

UFC Light Heavyweight Championship • UFC 320

Saturday, October 4, 2025

Challenger
-185
Clear Favorite
Former Champion
+160
Underdog
Magomed Ankalaev
C

Magomed Ankalaev

21-1-1

🥇 Champion

Age:
33Prime age
Height:
6'3"-1" shorter
Reach:
75"-4" shorter
Leg Reach:
42"-2" shorter

Challenger Metrics

Total UFC Fights
12
UFC Record
11-1-0
Current Streak
3 wins
Stance
Southpaw
Win Rate
91.3%
Finish Rate
52.4%
Avg Fight Duration
12:31
Fighting Style
Striker-Wrestler
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Alex Pereira
#1

Alex Pereira

"Poatan"

12-3-0

🥊 Former Undisputed Champion

Age:
37Veteran
Height:
6'4"+1" taller
Reach:
79"+4" advantage
Leg Reach:
44"+2" advantage

Former Champion Metrics

Total UFC Fights
11
UFC Record
9-2-0
Current Streak
1 loss
Stance
Southpaw
Win Rate
80%
Finish Rate
83.3%
Avg Fight Duration
11:57
Fighting Style
Kickboxer
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution

Last 5 Fights - Magomed Ankalaev

DateOpponentResultMethod
2025-03-08Alex PereiraWDecision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00)
2024-10-26Aleksandar RakićWDecision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00)
2024-01-13Johnny WalkerWKO/TKO - Right Hook-Uppercut (R2, 2:42)
2023-10-21Johnny WalkerNCNo Contest (Accidental Illegal Knee) (R1, 3:13)
2022-12-10Jan BłachowiczDSplit Decision (R5, 5:00)

Last 5 Fights - Alex Pereira

DateOpponentResultMethod
2025-03-08Magomed AnkalaevLDecision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00)
2024-10-05Khalil Rountree Jr.WTKO - Uppercuts (R4, 4:32)
2024-06-29Jiří ProcházkaWTKO - Head Kick (R2, 0:13)
2024-04-13Jamahal HillWTKO - Left Hook to Ground Strikes (R1, 3:14)
2023-11-11Jiří ProcházkaWTKO - Left Hook to Hammerfists & Elbows (R2, 4:08)

Technical Analysis

Technical Score

75.6/10083.6/100
Magomed
Alex
Alex advantage: 5.0%

Cardio Score

80.2/10056.5/100
Magomed
Alex
Magomed advantage: 17.3%

Overall Rating

77.9/10070.05/100
Magomed
Alex
Magomed advantage: 5.3%
📊 Technical Score

Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (89.7 vs 91.3) and Grappling Composite (61.5 vs 75.9). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.

💪 Cardio Score

Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.

🎯 Overall Rating

Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.

Striking Composite

89.7/10091.3/100
Magomed
Alex
Alex advantage: 0.9%

Grappling Composite

61.5/10075.9/100
Magomed
Alex
Alex advantage: 10.5%

Technical Radar Comparison

Metrics Legend
SLpM: Strikes/Min
StrAcc: Strike Accuracy
StrDef: Strike Defense
TDAcc: TD Accuracy
TDDef: TD Defense
SubPer15: Subs/15min
Magomed Ankalaev
VS
Alex Pereira

Detailed Statistical Comparison

Strikes Landed/Min
Advantage:Alex (+36.6%)
3.66per min5per min
Magomed
Alex
Difference: 1.34per min
Striking Accuracy
Advantage:Alex (+17.0%)
53%62%
Magomed
Alex
Difference: 9.00%
Striking Defense
Advantage:Magomed (+5.6%)
57%54%
Magomed
Alex
Difference: 3.00%
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Advantage:Alex (+42.3%)
2.46per min3.5per min
Magomed
Alex
Difference: 1.04per min
Takedowns/15min
Advantage:Magomed (+627.3%)
0.8per 15min0.11per 15min
Magomed
Difference: 0.69per 15min
Takedown Accuracy
Advantage:Alex (+117.4%)
23%50%
Magomed
Alex
Difference: 27.00%
Takedown Defense
Advantage:Magomed (+11.4%)
88%79%
Magomed
Alex
Difference: 9.00%
Submissions/15min
Advantage:Alex (+Infinity%)
0per 15min0.23per 15min
Alex
Difference: 0.23per 15min

🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown

🏆 Magomed Ankalaev Key Advantages

🛡️Defensive Excellence
Superior metrics

Elite defensive striking (57% vs 54%) and takedown defense (88% vs 79%) create fortress-like protection

💪Championship Cardio
+42% advantage

Superior cardio score (80.2 vs 56.5) and proven five-round durability in championship fights

🎯Wrestling Pressure
+627% volume

0.80 takedowns per 15min vs 0.11 - can pressure and control fight geography when needed

⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios

💥Power Striking Exchanges

Pereira's knockout power (83% finish rate) and reach advantage create danger in pocket exchanges

Early Round Aggression

Must weather Pereira's early power and precision before cardio advantages take effect

📋 Likely Gameplan

🛡️Defensive Counter-Striking

Use superior defensive metrics to slip strikes and counter with calculated precision

Championship Rounds

Survive early danger and push pace in rounds 4-5 where cardio advantage becomes decisive

🚀 Alex Pereira Key Advantages

💥Knockout Power
83% finish rate

Elite one-shot knockout power with 10 KO/TKO wins - can end fight with single clean strike

🎯Striking Precision
+17% accuracy

Superior striking accuracy (62% vs 53%) and volume (5.00 vs 3.66 SLpM) create constant pressure

📏Physical Advantages
+4" reach

Significant reach advantage (79" vs 75") and height edge allow control of striking distance

⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios

Late Round Fatigue

Cardio disadvantage becomes critical in championship rounds where Ankalaev thrives

🤼Wrestling Pressure

Ankalaev's wrestling volume and superior takedown defense could neutralize striking advantages

📋 Likely Gameplan

Early Aggression

Press the action early with power strikes before cardio disadvantage becomes factor

📐Range Control

Utilize reach advantage to keep Ankalaev at distance and pick shots with precision

🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis

Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis

54%
Magomed Ankalaev Win Probability
Slight favorite based on defensive metrics and cardio
46%
Alex Pereira Win Probability
Strong chance with superior striking power and precision

📊Detailed Analysis Summary

🏆Championship Dynamics

This light heavyweight title rematch presents a fascinating tactical chess match between Ankalaev's methodical defensive approach and Pereira's explosive knockout power. Having already defeated Pereira once via unanimous decision, Ankalaev enters with both psychological and tactical advantages. His superior defensive metrics (57% striking defense vs 54%) and exceptional takedown defense (88% vs 79%) create a defensive fortress that has proven difficult for power strikers to penetrate.

🎯Technical Breakdown

The statistical analysis reveals contrasting strengths that could determine the outcome. Ankalaev's 42% cardio advantage (80.2 vs 56.5) becomes increasingly important in championship rounds, while his wrestling pressure (0.80 vs 0.11 takedowns per 15 minutes) provides alternative pathways to victory. However, Pereira's striking advantages are substantial: 17% better accuracy (62% vs 53%), 37% higher volume (5.00 vs 3.66 SLpM), and devastating knockout power with an 83% finish rate.

Key Battle Areas

The fight will likely be determined by timing and conditioning. Pereira's window of opportunity exists primarily in the first three rounds, where his power and reach advantage (79" vs 75") are most effective. His ability to land clean shots early could negate Ankalaev's late-round advantages. Conversely, Ankalaev's path to victory involves weathering the early storm, utilizing his superior defensive metrics to minimize damage, and pushing the pace in championship rounds where his cardio superiority becomes decisive.

🏁Final Prediction

While Pereira possesses the tools to score a knockout victory and his striking advantages are legitimate, Ankalaev's proven ability to neutralize his opponent's power, combined with superior defensive metrics and championship-level cardio, gives him the slight edge. The 54-46 split reflects the quality of both fighters and the multiple pathways each has to victory. Expect a tactical battle where Ankalaev's patience and defensive discipline ultimately prevail over Pereira's explosive but potentially unsustainable early aggression, likely resulting in a decision victory for the challenger.

💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market

Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities

📊Market Odds

Implied Probability: 64.9%
Implied Probability: 38.5%
Popular Props
Over 2.5 rounds:-122 (55%)
Under 2.5 rounds:+122 (45%)
Goes the distance:+178 (36%)
Doesn't go distance:-220 (68.8%)

🤖Analytical Model

Model Probability: 54%
Model Probability: 46%
Model Props
Over 2.5 rounds:-140 (58.3%)
Under 2.5 rounds:+110 (47.6%)
Goes the distance:+125 (44.4%)
Doesn't go distance:-155 (60.8%)

💎Value Opportunities

⭐⭐
GOOD VALUE
Ankalaev by Decision (+257)

Model: 28% | Market: ~28%

PROBABILITY:
28%
FAIR VALUE
Pereira by KO/TKO (+170)

Model: 37% | Market: ~37%

ALIGNED:
37%
SLIGHT VALUE
Over 2.5 Rounds (-122)

Model: 58.3% | Market: 55%

EDGE:
+3.3%

🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis

100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data

🏆Outcome Distribution - Ankalaev

By Decision28%

Primary path to victory via cardio and defense

By KO/TKO18%

Counter-striking opportunities in later rounds

By Submission8%

Rare but possible via wrestling pressure

💥Outcome Distribution - Pereira

By KO/TKO37%

Main finishing method - one-shot power

By Decision8%

Less likely due to cardio disadvantage

By Submission1%

Minimal submission threat historically

Fight Timeline Analysis

R1
Advantage: Pereira
Fresh power, reach control
R2
Advantage: Pereira
Still dangerous but fading
R3
Advantage: Even
Turning point round
R4
Advantage: Ankalaev
Cardio takes over
R5
Advantage: Ankalaev
Dominant late round

🎯 Final Confidence Assessment

Confidence level: 6/10 - Competitive rematch with multiple variables

🏁Executive Summary

This light heavyweight championship rematch presents a fascinating tactical battle between proven championship-level fighters. Ankalaev's previous victory over Pereira provides both psychological and tactical advantages, but Pereira's knockout power ensures that every exchange carries potential fight-ending consequences.

The statistical analysis favors Ankalaev's defensive metrics and superior cardio, particularly in championship rounds where his 42% cardio advantage becomes decisive. However, Pereira's 17% striking accuracy advantage and 83% finish rate create legitimate pathways to victory, especially in the early rounds.

Prediction: Ankalaev's proven ability to neutralize Pereira's power, combined with superior defensive metrics and championship conditioning, gives him the edge in a competitive rematch. Expect a tactical battle where defensive discipline and late-round cardio ultimately prevail, likely resulting in a decision victory for the challenger to claim his first UFC championship.

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