Rodrigo Sezinando vs Daniil Donchenko
UFC Noche • UFC Noche
Saturday, September 13, 2025
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Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Rodrigo Sezinando
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-15 | Jonathan Ramsay | W | TKO (Punches) (R1, 3:06) |
| 2024-05-09 | Dario Sinagoga | W | TKO (Ground & Pound) (R2, 2:03) |
| 2024-02-08 | Scottie Stockman | W | Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) (R1, 3:04) |
| 2023-03-30 | Saeid Mirzaei | W | KO (Punches and Knee) (R2, 3:21) |
| 2022-11-11 | Willker Lemos | L | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Daniil Donchenko
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-23 | Rustem Kudaybergenov | W | Decision (Unanimous) (R5, 5:00) |
| 2024-07-06 | Kanybek Zhanybek Uulu | W | Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) (R4, 4:31) |
| 2024-03-15 | Rustam Yusupov | W | TKO (Punches) (R1, 2:45) |
| 2024-01-21 | Sang Kwon Han | W | TKO (Doctor Stoppage) (R2, 0:01) |
| 2023-10-07 | Kanybek Zhanybek Uulu | L | Decision (Unanimous) (R5, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (76 vs 78) and Grappling Composite (79 vs 74). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights. Some official pacing metrics are unavailable; estimates are used conservatively.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Rodrigo Sezinando Key Advantages
Proven ability to pressure in clinch and pursue takedowns; capable of banking rounds through control.
Technical base suggests balanced striking and grappling fundamentals with good fight IQ.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Donchenko's finishing surges in R1–R2 present danger during entries and mid-range trades.
Giving Donchenko space enables combinations and counters that could swing rounds.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Close distance safely, chain attempts to secure control time and wear down explosiveness.
Prioritize control and round-winning sequences over risk-heavy ground-and-pound exchanges.
🚀 Daniil Donchenko Key Advantages
Multiple recent stoppages by strikes; explosive surges create early danger.
Offensive grappling threats complement striking surges if fights hit the mat.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Defensive grappling under sustained pressure could concede control time and rounds.
Heavy clinch pace can sap explosiveness and reduce finishing windows late.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Force high-pace striking early, look to hurt and convert momentum in R1–R2.
Keep the fight at kickboxing range, punish level changes and exits with counters.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis (some public metrics unavailable; conservative estimates used)
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏆Matchup Dynamics
Stylistic clash between Sezinando's measured pressure-wrestling approach and Donchenko's finishing aggression. Publicly available physical data is limited for Sezinando, but tape suggests balanced fundamentals from Nova União. Donchenko brings youth and offensive surges that can flip rounds quickly.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Control time and chain-wrestling favor Sezinando when exchanges are contained. Donchenko owns the higher finishing ceiling through striking bursts and opportunistic submissions. Defensive responsibilities at distance will determine momentum in early minutes.
🔑Key Battle Areas
Early pace and range control vs clinch entries; scramble outcomes after first takedown attempt; damage vs control scoring. If Donchenko can't dent early, Sezinando's control sequences gain value on the cards.
🏁Final Prediction
Competitive matchup with clear but narrow edges: Donchenko's finishing danger early vs Sezinando's control and decision path. Model leans Donchenko 60-40 overall given youth and power, with Sezinando live to grind out minutes and swing scorecards.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Market lines display as N/A if not yet posted. We prioritize BetOnline and fall back to the best available line per /api/odds.
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
HIGH VALUE
Model: 25.0% | Market: 18.2% | Edge: +6.8% | Fair: +300
MEDIUM VALUE
Model: 40.0% | Market: 33.3% | Edge: +6.7% | Fair: +150
LOW VALUE
Model: 40.0% | Market: 35.7% | Edge: +4.3% | Fair: +150
⚠️Key Market Notes
- • Donchenko Inside the Distance (−130, 56.5%) vs model 45% — overpriced per model.
- • Either Fighter by KO/TKO (+100, 50.0%) vs model 40% — lean under market.
- • Donchenko by Points (+300, 25.0%) vs model 15% — inflated relative to model path.
- • “No” Goes the Distance (−220, 68.8%) vs model 60% — rich; we prefer small plus‑money on Yes.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data and qualitative tape reads
🏆Outcome Distribution - Rodrigo Sezinando
Primary path via control and round-winning sequences
Less frequent but possible during attritional sequences
Occasional RNC or opportunistic finish
💥Outcome Distribution - Daniil Donchenko
Main finishing method via explosive surges
Win minutes with damage at range
Opportunistic grappling threat remains live
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Donchenko
- • First 10 minutes: Best chance to land decisive damage
- • Rounds 1-2: Finishing windows highest; protect against clinch slowdowns
- • Distance control: Manage range to punish entries
- • Energy management: Avoid extended grappling sequences
🎯Progressive Control - Sezinando
- • Round 2-3: Chain attempts accumulate control time
- • Accumulation: Wear down explosiveness with clinch pace
- • Submission threat: Opportunistic but secondary
- • Decision path: Prioritize safe round-winning sequences
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Moderate-high confidence; missing official metrics introduce some uncertainty
✅Supporting Factors
- • Donchenko's finishing history and youth
- • Sezinando's clinch and control pathways
- • Clear, contrasting win conditions
- • Three-round format accentuates early momentum impact
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Limited public data on physicals and detailed stats for Sezinando
- • Volatility of early exchanges vs clinch tax
- • Potential short-notice or weight-class variables
- • Market uncertainty until lines post
🏁Executive Summary
Competitive three-round welterweight bout featuring youth and finishing power (Donchenko) versus measured pressure and control (Sezinando). Absent official totals for some metrics, the model leans on conservative estimates and tape. The favored path is Donchenko inside the first two rounds or a close decision if he banks early damage.
Prediction: Donchenko by KO/TKO or competitive decision; Sezinando live by decision through clinch and wrestling control.