Karine Silva vs Dione Barbosa
Women's Flyweight Bout • UFC 319
Saturday, August 16, 2025
Performance Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Performance Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Karine Silva
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-16 | Viviane Araujo | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-04-27 | Ariane Lipski | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-08-19 | Maryna Moroz | W | Submission - Guillotine Choke (R1, 4:59) |
| 2023-06-03 | Ketlen Souza | W | Submission - Kneebar (R1, 1:45) |
| 2022-06-04 | Poliana Botelho | W | Submission - Brabo Choke (R1, 4:55) |
Last 5 Fights - Dione Barbosa
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-05 | Diana Belbiță | W | Submission - Arm Triangle (R1, 4:13) |
| 2024-07-20 | Miranda Maverick | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-05-04 | Ernesta Kareckaite | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-09-05 | Rainn Guerrero | W | Submission - Armbar (R1, 4:35) |
| 2023-02-10 | Jessica Middleton | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (68 vs 61) and Grappling Composite (70 vs 64).
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, and submission/takedown activity. Reflects endurance and ability to maintain pace.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🔬Technical Breakdown
Silva holds clear advantages in overall output, defensive metrics, and submission volume (2.8 per 15). Barbosa is the more precise striker and can win clean minutes at range, but her lower volume narrows round-winning equity in close frames. Takedown accuracy (50% vs 33%) and a small reach edge favor Silva in initiating clinch-to-ground sequences. When the fight becomes transitional, Silva's finishing threat materially exceeds Barbosa's. If distance is maintained, Barbosa's shot selection and steadier cardio keep rounds competitive.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Scrambles and clinch entries determine momentum. If Silva establishes top positions in the first half of the fight, submission windows open quickly and can flip rounds or finish. If Barbosa controls distance with jabs and straight shots and keeps entries shallow, her accuracy and endurance improve scoring traction late. Judges are likely to reward Silva's grappling control or near-finishes versus Barbosa's cleaner but lower-output striking.
🏁Final Prediction
Pick: Karine Silva. Most likely paths are submission (primary) or control-heavy decision following early grappling success. Barbosa's clearest path centers on range management, denying clinch entries, and stitching together clean pockets of offense over all three rounds. Any prolonged scramble markedly favors Silva.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment
📊Market Odds
Market Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
STRONG VALUE
Model: 40% | Market: 21.1%
DERIVATIVE VALUE
Model: 22% | Market: 29.9%
HEDGE IDEA
Aligns with Barbosa range-control path
🎯Highest Probability Bets
📈Value Opportunities Analysis
- • Best Value: Silva by Submission (+375) — Model 40% vs Market ~21%.
- • Totals Value: Under 2.5 Rounds — Model 52% (+120 fair) vs Market +205.
- • Fair Price: Barbosa by Decision (+235) — closer to fair; usable as small hedge.
- • Avoid: Silva ML (-210) at current price (model -213 baseline; little upside).
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🥇Outcome Distribution - Karine Silva
Better defense and control when grappling succeeds
Power shots from top control and transitions
Primary finishing method via chokes/leg locks
🥈Outcome Distribution - Dione Barbosa
Range control and late-round consistency
Lower finishing power historically
Occasional arm-triangle/armbar setups
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (3 Rounds)
🥋Window of Opportunity - Karine Silva
- • First 7 minutes: highest submission danger
- • Clinch-to-ground transitions create finishing windows
- • Chain wrestling to secure dominant positions
🎯Range Control - Dione Barbosa
- • Maintain distance with jabs/straights
- • Use takedowns opportunistically, avoid scrambles
- • Score late to sway close rounds
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Conviction
Model strongly favors Silva via submission or control
✅Supporting Factors
- • Huge submission volume edge (2.8 vs 0.6)
- • Better TD accuracy (50% vs 33%) and reach advantage
- • Higher defensive metrics overall
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Barbosa's accuracy and cardio in extended striking
- • Potential stall-outs on takedown entries
- • Three-round variance in close fights
🏁Executive Summary
Expect Karine Silva to dictate the grappling sequences, forcing clinch exchanges and creating multiple submission threats across the first two rounds. Her superior takedown accuracy and scrambling danger shift high-leverage moments in her favor, translating to either near-finishes or decisive control time.
Dione Barbosa remains a live underdog if she keeps the fight at range and forces longer, cleaner striking exchanges. Her accuracy edge and steadier cardio become more meaningful the longer the bout extends without deep grappling.
Net view: probabilities and stylistic layers align with Silva as the rightful side, with the market's best edges concentrated on finish-related angles (Silva by submission, Under 2.5).