Lerone Murphy vs Aaron Pico
UFC Featherweight Bout • UFC 319
Saturday, August 16, 2025
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
🔵Last 5 Fights - Lerone Murphy
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-05 | Josh Emmett | W | Decision - Unanimous |
| 2024-10-26 | Dan Ige | W | Decision - Unanimous |
| 2024-05-18 | Edson Barboza | W | Decision - Unanimous |
| 2023-07-22 | Josh Culibao | W | Decision - Unanimous |
| 2023-03-18 | Gabriel Santos | W | Decision - Split |
🔴Last 5 Fights - Aaron Pico
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-02-24 | Henry Corrales II | W | TKO - Ground-and-Pound |
| 2023-09-23 | Pedro Carvalho | W | TKO - Ground-and-Pound |
| 2023-04-22 | James Gonzalez | W | Decision - Unanimous |
| 2022-10-01 | Jeremy Kennedy | L | TKO - Shoulder Injury |
| 2022-04-15 | Adli Edwards | W | TKO - Punches |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (62 vs 58) and Grappling Composite (40 vs 61). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Lerone Murphy Key Advantages
Superior reach advantage and southpaw stance create angles that force Pico to cross distance repeatedly
Superior cardio conditioning and proven five-round durability in championship fights
Extensive UFC experience with unbeaten record against top-tier featherweight competition
🔥 Aaron Pico Key Advantages
Elite finishing ability with devastating one-shot knockout power and high-volume striking
Elite freestyle wrestling background with massive takedown volume advantage
Dangerous early aggression with majority of wins coming in the first round
🔮Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
Lerone Murphy Win Probability
Slight favorite based on range control and superior cardio
Aaron Pico Win Probability
Strong chance with superior wrestling power and finishing ability
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏆Stylistic Matchup
This featherweight bout presents a fascinating clash between Murphy's proven UFC experience and Pico's explosive finishing ability. Murphy's unbeaten UFC record (8-0-1) and superior reach advantage create consistent distance control tools, while Pico's 85% finish rate and elite wrestling credentials offer legitimate upset pathways.
⚖️Key Factors
Murphy's 2.5" reach advantage and superior cardio conditioning (82 vs 73) become increasingly important in a three-round format. Pico's massive wrestling volume (6.5 vs 1.45 takedowns per 15 minutes) and early finishing power create the most significant threats to Murphy's game plan.
🔍Final Assessment
While Pico possesses the tools to score an early knockout or wrestling-based victory, Murphy's proven ability to neutralize power wrestlers combined with superior defensive metrics and championship-level conditioning create the more reliable pathway to victory. The 65-35 split reflects genuine uncertainty in this compelling stylistic clash.
💰Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
Method Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props (Estimated Odds)
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 48% | Market: ~28%
GOOD VALUE
Model: 27% | Market: ~37%
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 68.3% | Market: ~55%
🎯Highest Probability Bets
💎Value Opportunities Analysis
- • Best Value: Murphy Moneyline (+160) — Model 65% vs 38.5% market implied
- • High Value: Murphy by KO/TKO (+525) — Model 22% vs 16.0% market implied
- • Good Value: Fight Doesn't Go Distance (+155) — Model 56% vs 39.2% market implied
- • Fair Value: Murphy by Decision (+220) — Model 35% vs 31.3% market implied
- • Overvalued: Pico Moneyline (-185) — Model 35% vs 64.9% market implied
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Murphy
56% of his wins | Primary path to victory
44% of his wins | Counter-striking opportunities
Rare but possible | Defensive grappling
💥Outcome Distribution - Pico
69% of his wins | Main finishing method
15% of his wins | Less likely due to cardio disadvantage
15% of his wins | Wrestling-based submissions
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (3 Rounds)
Fight Progression Analysis
The fight timeline favors different fighters at distinct phases. Pico's most dangerous period occurs in the opening 5 minutes, where his combination of explosive power, wrestling pressure, and fresh cardio create maximum threat level. Round 1 sees Pico at 60% win probability, largely through early knockout potential and takedown success.
Round 2 becomes the critical transition phase where Murphy's superior conditioning begins to neutralize Pico's athletic advantages. By Round 3, Murphy's cardio superiority and defensive adjustments shift the momentum decisively, with his win probability climbing to 75% if the fight reaches this stage. The key inflection point occurs around the 8-minute mark, where Pico's explosive output typically begins to decline while Murphy maintains consistent pressure and volume.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level: 7/10 - Competitive featherweight bout with multiple variables
Confidence Level
High confidence due to clear stylistic advantages
✅Supporting Factors
- • Murphy's proven UFC experience
- • Superior reach and movement
- • Cardio advantage in 3 rounds
- • Defensive striking metrics
- • Unbeaten UFC record
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Pico's massive wrestling volume
- • Elite explosive power threat
- • Murphy's 52% TD defense
- • Early round danger
- • UFC debut pressure for Pico
🏁Executive Summary
This featherweight bout represents a compelling stylistic matchup between Murphy's proven UFC experience and Pico's explosive finishing ability. Murphy's 2.5" reach advantage, superior cardio conditioning, and unbeaten UFC record create clear pathways to victory, while Pico's 85% finish rate and massive wrestling volume present significant upset potential.
The statistical analysis favors Murphy's defensive metrics and championship-level conditioning, particularly in a three-round format where his cardio advantage becomes increasingly decisive. However, Pico's early-round explosiveness and wrestling pressure create legitimate knockout and submission threats that must be respected in any betting consideration.
Prediction: Murphy's proven ability to neutralize power wrestlers, combined with superior defensive metrics and cardio conditioning, gives him the edge in a competitive bout. Expect a tactical battle where Murphy's range control and defensive discipline ultimately prevail, likely resulting in a decision victory for the unbeaten Englishman to continue his rise in the featherweight division.