Geoff Neal vs Carlos Prates
Men's Welterweight • UFC 319
Saturday, August 16, 2025
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Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Veteran Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Rising Star Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Geoff Neal
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-26 | Rafael dos Anjos | W | TKO - Leg Injury (R1, 1:30) |
| 2024-02-17 | Ian Machado Garry | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-03-04 | Shavkat Rakhmonov | L | Submission - Standing RNC (R3, 4:17) |
| 2020-12-19 | Stephen Thompson | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2017-07-14 | Bilal Williams | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 4:43) |
Last 5 Fights - Carlos Prates
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-26 | Ian Machado Garry | L | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2024-11-09 | Neil Magny | W | TKO - Left Hook (R1, 4:50) |
| 2024-08-17 | Jingliang Li | W | TKO - Left Hook (R2, 4:02) |
| 2024-06-08 | Charles Radtke | W | TKO - Knee to the Body (R1, 4:47) |
| 2024-02-10 | Trevin Giles | W | TKO - Straight Left (R2, 4:03) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (50.8 vs 47.0) and Grappling Composite (37.7 vs 47.1). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Neal's veteran cardio (41.0) vs Prates' early finishing style (29.7).
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Neal's balanced approach (42.6) vs Prates' explosive style (38.4) in a striking-focused matchup.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Neal's volume (50.8) vs Prates' precision (47.0).
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Prates' defensive wrestling (47.1) vs Neal's limited grappling (37.7).
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
💪 Geoff Neal Key Advantages
1.45 SLpM differential forces opponents backward and controls fight optics in the large cage
Southpaw cross and lead uppercut carry 5-KO UFC résumé, dangerous against high chin exits
Superior cardio score (41.0 vs 29.7) and 12 UFC fights create late-round advantages
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Prates' 3-inch reach advantage and switch-stance kicking can punish linear entries
Tendency to shell high makes him vulnerable to Prates' knees and body kicks
📋 Likely Gameplan
Apply early pressure, pivot to southpaw body jab-left cross, finish with calf kicks
Stay mid-range where hand speed wins exchanges and cardio edge builds rounds
🦁 Carlos Prates Key Advantages
3-inch reach plus switch-stance kicks and intercept knees can punish Neal's linear entries
Slightly lower SLpA (4.79 vs 5.44) and 78-inch frame allows riding shots on punch ends
Superior striking accuracy (55% vs 51%) with devastating left hook finishing power
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Neal's 1.45 SLpM advantage historically peaks in Round 1 - must weather early storm
Neal's superior cardio score could create late-round durability gaps
📋 Likely Gameplan
Feint high kicks to freeze Neal, spear knees when Neal squares up
Steer left to negate Neal's power hand, pick at legs, look for step-in elbows
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🥊Striking Dynamic
This welterweight clash presents a fascinating contrast between Neal's volume-based pressure game and Prates' precision counter-striking approach. Neal's 1.45 SLpM advantage (5.05 vs 3.60) historically allows him to dictate pace and control fight optics, particularly in the large octagon where cage-cutting becomes crucial. However, Prates' superior striking accuracy (55% vs 51%) combined with his 3-inch reach advantage creates natural counters to Neal's linear pressure style.
🎯Technical Analysis
The technical scores reveal intriguing disparities: Neal's slight edge in technical score (44.3 vs 47.0) is offset by Prates' superior striking composite (47.0 vs 50.8). Neal's southpaw stance provides unique angles for his power shots, particularly the left cross and lead uppercut that have produced 5 UFC knockouts. Prates' switch-stance capability and proven left hook finishing power create volatile early-round scenarios where both fighters possess legitimate knockout threats.
⚡Key Battle Areas
The first seven minutes become crucial as Neal's volume advantage peaks historically in Round 1, while Prates must weather this early storm to implement his range-based gameplan. Neal's cardio advantage (41.0 vs 29.7) suggests increasing dominance in later rounds, but Prates' 90.5% career finish rate indicates he rarely needs scorecards when executing successfully. The large 30-foot cage slightly favors Prates' lateral movement and kicking range, forcing Neal to cut angles effectively.
🔮Victory Scenarios
Neal's path to victory centers on applying sustained pressure from the opening bell, utilizing his superior output to overwhelm Prates' defensive structure. His 12 UFC fights of experience provide tactical advantages in reading and adapting to Prates' striking patterns. The veteran's body work becomes crucial against Prates' high-guard tendencies, potentially wearing down the Brazilian's movement and explosive capabilities.
Prates' victory blueprint relies on maintaining distance early, using his reach and precision to discourage Neal's forward pressure. His intercept knees and switch-stance kicks create opportunities for fight-ending sequences, while his superior striking defense (48% vs 57%) provides the foundation for extended exchanges. The key lies in capitalizing on Neal's predictable entries with counter-strikes that maximize his finishing power and length advantages.
🏁Final Prediction
While Prates possesses the tools to neutralize Neal's pressure through superior reach and accuracy, Neal's volume advantage and proven durability in extended exchanges provide the statistical edge. The 60-40 split reflects Neal's ability to force his preferred pace while acknowledging Prates' legitimate finishing threats. Expect a competitive striking battle where Neal's relentless pressure eventually overcomes Prates' defensive counters, likely through accumulated damage and superior cardio in the later rounds of this three-round affair.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
Method Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props (Estimated Odds)
💎Value Opportunities
STRONG VALUE
Model: 60% | Market: 32.8%
DERIVATIVE VALUE
Fair ~ +186
NEUTRAL
Model: 60% | Market: ~60.8%
🎯Highest Probability Bets
📈Value Opportunities Analysis
- • Best Value: Neal ML (+205) — Model 60% vs 32.8% market
- • Derivative: Neal KO/TKO (+500) — Fair ~ +186
- • Hedge: Prates KO/TKO (+115) — Covers early volatility
- • Avoid: Prates ML (-240) — Market 70.6% vs model 40%
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
💪Outcome Distribution - Neal
58.3% of his wins | Primary finishing method
36.7% of his wins | Volume advantage path
5% of his wins | Rare but possible
🦁Outcome Distribution - Prates
75% of his wins | Left hook finishing power
22.5% of his wins | Precision striking path
2.5% of his wins | Minimal grappling threat
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Prates
- • First 7 minutes: Maximum reach advantage and counter-strike opportunities
- • Round 1-2: 80% of his UFC finishes occur here (4 of 5 fights)
- • Distance control: Must utilize lateral movement and switch-stance kicking
- • Counter-striking: Left hook and knee opportunities on Neal's entries
🎯Progressive Dominance - Neal
- • Round 1+: Volume advantage peaks early, maintains throughout
- • Pressure accumulation: 1.45 SLpM advantage wears down defensive structure
- • Cardio emergence: 38% higher cardio score shows in later rounds
- • Experience factor: 12 UFC fights vs 5 provides tactical advantages
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Moderate confidence due to stylistic matchup complexity
✅Supporting Factors
- • Neal's significant volume advantage (1.45 SLpM)
- • Superior cardio score (41.0 vs 29.7)
- • Proven UFC experience (12 vs 5 fights)
- • Southpaw power with 5 UFC knockouts
- • Historical success against tall strikers
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Prates' 3-inch reach advantage
- • Superior striking accuracy (55% vs 51%)
- • Devastating left hook finishing power
- • Better pocket defense and frame
- • Welterweight division volatility
🏁Executive Summary
This welterweight clash represents a classic volume vs precision matchup that could define both fighters' career trajectories. Neal's 1.45 SLpM advantage and proven pressure game create clear paths to victory, particularly against fighters who rely on counter-striking from range. His southpaw stance and power shots have historically troubled tall, technical strikers who struggle with linear pressure applications.
However, Prates' physical advantages are legitimate and create genuine uncertainty in the outcome. His 3-inch reach advantage, superior striking accuracy, and devastating left hook finishing power provide natural counters to Neal's aggressive style. The Brazilian's 90.5% career finish rate indicates he rarely needs scorecards when executing his gameplan effectively, making this a dangerous fight for any opponent regardless of statistical advantages.
Prediction: The fight likely unfolds as a high-volume striking battle where Neal's relentless pressure eventually breaks down Prates' defensive structure. While Prates possesses the tools for early finishing sequences, Neal's superior cardio and experience in extended exchanges provide the statistical edge. The 60-40 split reflects this dynamic while acknowledging the legitimate knockout variance that exists in this stylistic matchup. Neal's ability to maintain his volume advantage across three rounds should ultimately overcome Prates' reach and precision advantages.