Bobby Green vs Diego Ferreira
Men's Lightweight Division • UFC 319
Saturday, August 16, 2025
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
King Green Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Ferreira Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Bobby Green
Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
---|---|---|---|
2025-03-08 | Mauricio Ruffy | L | KO - Spinning Wheel Kick (R1, 2:07) |
2024-07-27 | Paddy Pimblett | L | Submission - Triangle Choke (R1, 3:22) |
2024-04-13 | Jim Miller | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
2023-12-02 | Jalin Turner | L | KO - Punches (R1, 2:49) |
2023-10-07 | Grant Dawson | W | KO - Punches (R1, 0:33) |
Last 5 Fights - Diego Ferreira
Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
---|---|---|---|
2025-01-18 | Grant Dawson | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
2024-05-11 | Mateusz Rebecki | W | TKO - Punches (R3, 4:51) |
2023-05-20 | Michael Johnson | W | KO - Punch (R2, 1:50) |
2021-12-18 | Mateusz Gamrot | L | TKO - Submission to Knee to Body (R2, 3:26) |
2021-05-08 | Gregor Gillespie | L | TKO - Elbows & Punches (R2, 4:51) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (80 vs 60) and Grappling Composite (65 vs 60). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🥊 Bobby Green Key Advantages
Elite striking volume with 6.43 SLpM vs 4.82 - can dictate pace and control distance
Outstanding 74% takedown defense vs 58% - can keep fight standing
Superior cardio score (80 vs 70) and longer average fight time favors late rounds
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Ferreira's aggressive forward pressure could force Green into reactive boxing early
Extended grappling exchanges could favor Ferreira's superior submission rate
📋 Likely Gameplan
Use jab-feint chains and stance switches to maintain center cage control
Sprawl and disengage, avoid extended ground exchanges at all costs
🥋 Diego Ferreira Key Advantages
Double the submission attempts (0.58 vs 0.29) with dangerous BJJ black belt skills
74" reach vs 71" creates opportunities for overhand-into-body-lock entries
Superior overall win rate and proven finishing ability across multiple methods
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Green's superior cardio and striking volume could overwhelm in extended exchanges
If Green maintains distance and controls center cage, takedown opportunities diminish
📋 Likely Gameplan
March forward with straight-right/left-hook combinations to close distance
Use clinch trips and scrambles to create submission opportunities
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🥊Stylistic Matchup Dynamics
This lightweight bout presents a classic striker vs grappler dynamic, with Bobby "King" Green's superior boxing skills and defensive wrestling facing off against Diego Ferreira's pressure grappling and submission expertise. Green's 33.4% advantage in striking output (6.43 vs 4.82 SLpM) and significantly better takedown defense (74% vs 58%) create the foundation for his path to victory.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals Green's comprehensive striking advantage, with superior technical and cardio scores (73 vs 60, 80 vs 70). His ability to maintain center cage control through jab-feint chains and stance switches directly counters Ferreira's pressure-based game plan. However, Ferreira's doubled submission rate (0.58 vs 0.29 per 15 minutes) and 3-inch reach advantage provide legitimate pathways to victory.
⚡Key Battle Areas
The fight will likely be determined by Green's ability to maintain distance and utilize his superior boxing volume against Ferreira's forward pressure and clinch attempts. Green's 27.6% advantage in takedown defense becomes crucial, as Ferreira's primary path to victory involves creating scramble situations that lead to submission opportunities. The age factor (37 vs 40) and recent activity levels could play significant roles in a potential war of attrition.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
⚖️Market Assessment
🎯Aligned Pricing
The market pricing closely aligns with our analytical model, suggesting efficient odds-making. Both the market (64.9%) and model (65%) show Green as a moderate favorite, with minimal discrepancy.
Green Analysis
- • Fair value around -185
- • Strong technical justification
- • Market properly values striking edge
- • No significant betting value
Ferreira Analysis
- • Appropriately priced as underdog
- • Submission threat factored in
- • Age concerns reflected in odds
- • Realistic value assessment
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence Level
High confidence based on clear technical advantages
✅Supporting Factors
- • Superior striking volume (+33.4%)
- • Elite takedown defense (74%)
- • Better cardio and endurance
- • Technical skill advantage
- • Favorable stylistic matchup
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Ferreira's submission threat
- • 3-inch reach disadvantage
- • Age and recent losses
- • Scramble vulnerability
- • Lightweight division volatility
🏁Executive Summary
Prediction: Bobby "King" Green defeats Diego Ferreira via decision or late TKO. Green's superior boxing skills, takedown defense, and cardio advantage should allow him to control the fight's geography and pace. While Ferreira's submission threat remains dangerous, Green's 27.6% advantage in takedown defense and proven ability to maintain center cage position create a clear path to victory. The market pricing appears efficient, offering little betting value on either side. Expect Green to utilize his jab-feint chains and stance switches to frustrate Ferreira's pressure game, ultimately winning by accumulating volume and avoiding extended ground exchanges.