Lightweight Bout • 3 Rounds

Bobby Green vs Diego Ferreira

Men's Lightweight Division • UFC 319

Saturday, August 16, 2025

"King" Green
-185
Favorite
Ferreira
+185
Underdog

Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles

Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.

Bobby Green
K

Bobby Green

"King"

32-17-1

🥊 Veteran Boxer

Age:
37Experience
Height:
5'10"+1" taller
Reach:
71"-3" shorter
UFC Record:
17-8-1Veteran

King Green Metrics

Place of Birth
San Bernardino, California, USA
Finish Rate
62.5%
Total UFC Fights
26
UFC Record
17-8-1
Current Streak
1 loss
Longest Win Streak
3
Win Rate
64%
Avg Fight Duration
11:08
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Diego Ferreira
🥋

Diego Ferreira

19-6-0

🥋 BJJ Black Belt

Age:
40Veteran
Height:
5'9"Standard
Reach:
74"+3" advantage
UFC Record:
10-6Solid

Ferreira Metrics

Place of Birth
Brasília, Brazil
Finish Rate
63.2%
Total UFC Fights
16
UFC Record
10-6
Current Streak
1 loss
Longest Win Streak
4
Win Rate
76%
Avg Fight Duration
9:46
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution

Last 5 Fights - Bobby Green

DateOpponentResultMethod
2025-03-08Mauricio RuffyLKO - Spinning Wheel Kick (R1, 2:07)
2024-07-27Paddy PimblettLSubmission - Triangle Choke (R1, 3:22)
2024-04-13Jim MillerWDecision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00)
2023-12-02Jalin TurnerLKO - Punches (R1, 2:49)
2023-10-07Grant DawsonWKO - Punches (R1, 0:33)

Last 5 Fights - Diego Ferreira

DateOpponentResultMethod
2025-01-18Grant DawsonLDecision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00)
2024-05-11Mateusz RebeckiWTKO - Punches (R3, 4:51)
2023-05-20Michael JohnsonWKO - Punch (R2, 1:50)
2021-12-18Mateusz GamrotLTKO - Submission to Knee to Body (R2, 3:26)
2021-05-08Gregor GillespieLTKO - Elbows & Punches (R2, 4:51)

Technical Analysis

Technical Score

73/10060/100
Bobby
Diego
Bobby advantage: 9.8%

Cardio Score

80/10070/100
Bobby
Diego
Bobby advantage: 6.7%

Overall Rating

76.5/10065/100
Bobby
Diego
Bobby advantage: 8.1%
📊 Technical Score

Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (80 vs 60) and Grappling Composite (65 vs 60). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.

💪 Cardio Score

Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.

🎯 Overall Rating

Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.

Striking Composite

80/10060/100
Bobby
Diego
Bobby advantage: 14.3%

Grappling Composite

65/10060/100
Bobby
Diego
Bobby advantage: 4.0%
🥊 Striking Composite

Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.

🤼 Grappling Composite

Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.

Technical Radar Comparison

Metrics Legend
SLpM: Strikes/Min
StrAcc: Strike Accuracy
StrDef: Strike Defense
TDAcc: TD Accuracy
TDDef: TD Defense
SubPer15: Subs/15min
Bobby Green
VS
Diego Ferreira

Detailed Statistical Comparison

Strikes Landed/Min
Advantage:Bobby (+33.4%)
6.43per min4.82per min
Bobby
Diego
Difference: 1.61per min
Striking Accuracy
Advantage:Bobby (+29.3%)
53%41%
Bobby
Diego
Difference: 12.00%
Striking Defense
Advantage:Bobby (+10.7%)
62%56%
Bobby
Diego
Difference: 6.00%
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Advantage:Bobby (+7.8%)
3.73per min3.46per min
Bobby
Diego
Difference: 0.27per min
Takedowns/15min
Advantage:Bobby (+43.0%)
1.23per 15min0.86per 15min
Bobby
Diego
Difference: 0.37per 15min
Takedown Accuracy
Advantage:Bobby (+33.3%)
40%30%
Bobby
Diego
Difference: 10.00%
Takedown Defense
Advantage:Bobby (+27.6%)
74%58%
Bobby
Diego
Difference: 16.00%
Submissions/15min
Advantage:Diego (+100.0%)
0.29per 15min0.58per 15min
Bobby
Diego
Difference: 0.29per 15min

🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown

🥊 Bobby Green Key Advantages

🥊Superior Boxing
+33.4% output

Elite striking volume with 6.43 SLpM vs 4.82 - can dictate pace and control distance

🛡️Defensive Grappling
+27.6% TDD

Outstanding 74% takedown defense vs 58% - can keep fight standing

💪Cardio Advantage
+14.3% endurance

Superior cardio score (80 vs 70) and longer average fight time favors late rounds

⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios

🔥Early Pressure

Ferreira's aggressive forward pressure could force Green into reactive boxing early

🤼Scramble Situations

Extended grappling exchanges could favor Ferreira's superior submission rate

📋 Likely Gameplan

🎯Volume Boxing

Use jab-feint chains and stance switches to maintain center cage control

🚫Defensive Wrestling

Sprawl and disengage, avoid extended ground exchanges at all costs

🥋 Diego Ferreira Key Advantages

🥋Submission Threat
+100% sub rate

Double the submission attempts (0.58 vs 0.29) with dangerous BJJ black belt skills

📏Reach Advantage
+3" longer

74" reach vs 71" creates opportunities for overhand-into-body-lock entries

📈Higher Win Rate
76% vs 64%

Superior overall win rate and proven finishing ability across multiple methods

⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios

🏃High-Pace Boxing

Green's superior cardio and striking volume could overwhelm in extended exchanges

🎯Distance Management

If Green maintains distance and controls center cage, takedown opportunities diminish

📋 Likely Gameplan

Pressure Boxing

March forward with straight-right/left-hook combinations to close distance

🔗Grappling Chains

Use clinch trips and scrambles to create submission opportunities

🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis

Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis

65%
Bobby Green Win Probability
Superior boxing skills and takedown defense
35%
Diego Ferreira Win Probability
Submission threat and reach advantage

📊Detailed Analysis Summary

🥊Stylistic Matchup Dynamics

This lightweight bout presents a classic striker vs grappler dynamic, with Bobby "King" Green's superior boxing skills and defensive wrestling facing off against Diego Ferreira's pressure grappling and submission expertise. Green's 33.4% advantage in striking output (6.43 vs 4.82 SLpM) and significantly better takedown defense (74% vs 58%) create the foundation for his path to victory.

🎯Technical Breakdown

The statistical analysis reveals Green's comprehensive striking advantage, with superior technical and cardio scores (73 vs 60, 80 vs 70). His ability to maintain center cage control through jab-feint chains and stance switches directly counters Ferreira's pressure-based game plan. However, Ferreira's doubled submission rate (0.58 vs 0.29 per 15 minutes) and 3-inch reach advantage provide legitimate pathways to victory.

Key Battle Areas

The fight will likely be determined by Green's ability to maintain distance and utilize his superior boxing volume against Ferreira's forward pressure and clinch attempts. Green's 27.6% advantage in takedown defense becomes crucial, as Ferreira's primary path to victory involves creating scramble situations that lead to submission opportunities. The age factor (37 vs 40) and recent activity levels could play significant roles in a potential war of attrition.

💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market

Detailed value assessment in the betting market

📊Market Odds

Bobby Green-185
Implied Probability: 64.9%
Diego Ferreira+185
Implied Probability: 35.1%

🤖Analytical Model

Bobby Green-185
Model Probability: 65%
Diego Ferreira+186
Model Probability: 35%

⚖️Market Assessment

🎯Aligned Pricing

The market pricing closely aligns with our analytical model, suggesting efficient odds-making. Both the market (64.9%) and model (65%) show Green as a moderate favorite, with minimal discrepancy.

Green Analysis
  • • Fair value around -185
  • • Strong technical justification
  • • Market properly values striking edge
  • • No significant betting value
Ferreira Analysis
  • • Appropriately priced as underdog
  • • Submission threat factored in
  • • Age concerns reflected in odds
  • • Realistic value assessment

🎯 Final Confidence Assessment

7/10

Confidence Level

High confidence based on clear technical advantages

Supporting Factors

  • • Superior striking volume (+33.4%)
  • • Elite takedown defense (74%)
  • • Better cardio and endurance
  • • Technical skill advantage
  • • Favorable stylistic matchup

⚠️Risk Factors

  • • Ferreira's submission threat
  • • 3-inch reach disadvantage
  • • Age and recent losses
  • • Scramble vulnerability
  • • Lightweight division volatility

🏁Executive Summary

Prediction: Bobby "King" Green defeats Diego Ferreira via decision or late TKO. Green's superior boxing skills, takedown defense, and cardio advantage should allow him to control the fight's geography and pace. While Ferreira's submission threat remains dangerous, Green's 27.6% advantage in takedown defense and proven ability to maintain center cage position create a clear path to victory. The market pricing appears efficient, offering little betting value on either side. Expect Green to utilize his jab-feint chains and stance switches to frustrate Ferreira's pressure game, ultimately winning by accumulating volume and avoiding extended ground exchanges.

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