Gerald Meerschaert vs Michał Oleksiejczuk
Men's Middleweight Bout • UFC 319
Saturday, August 16, 2025
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Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Grappler Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Striker Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Gerald Meerschaert
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-05 | Brad Tavares | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-11-09 | Reinier de Ridder | L | Submission - Arm-Triangle Choke (R3, 1:44) |
| 2024-08-24 | Edmen Shahbazyan | W | Submission - Arm-Triangle Choke (R2, 4:12) |
| 2024-03-16 | Bryan Barberena | W | Technical Submission - Face Crank (R2, 4:23) |
| 2023-08-19 | Andre Petroski | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Michał Oleksiejczuk
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-12 | Sedriques Dumas | W | TKO - Left Hook to Ground Strikes (R1, 2:49) |
| 2024-08-03 | Shara Magomedov | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-06-01 | Kevin Holland | L | Technical Submission - Armbar (R1, 1:34) |
| 2024-03-09 | Michel Pereira | L | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R1, 1:01) |
| 2023-08-26 | Chidi Njokuani | W | TKO - Ground & Pound (R1, 4:16) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (97.3 vs 113.4) and Grappling Composite (187.5 vs 66.4). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Gerald Meerschaert Key Advantages
Massive grappling composite superiority (187.5 vs 66.4) with elite submission threat
1.41 submission attempts per 15min with 78% submission win rate - constant danger
Veteran presence with 23 UFC fights vs 15 - knows how to navigate difficult situations
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Oleksiejczuk's 75% KO rate and explosive power could end fight before grappling game develops
High-volume pressure boxing could overwhelm Meerschaert's defensive striking
📋 Likely Gameplan
Use clinch work to neutralize boxing, secure takedowns and work submission game
Prioritize submission attempts over ground and pound - his primary finishing weapon
🚀 Michał Oleksiejczuk Key Advantages
Devastating knockout power with 15 KO/TKO wins - can end fight with single shot
Superior striking output (5.27 vs 3.05 SLpM) - can overwhelm with volume
Physical prime advantage with explosive speed and reflexes
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Prolonged ground exchanges play directly into Meerschaert's elite submission game
Getting caught in clinch exchanges allows Meerschaert to work his wrestling game
📋 Likely Gameplan
Apply constant pressure with boxing combinations, avoid clinch engagements
Hunt for early knockout before Meerschaert can establish his grappling rhythm
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🎯Stylistic Matchup Analysis
This middleweight clash presents a classic striker vs grappler dynamic with clear paths to victory for both fighters. Meerschaert's massive 182% grappling advantage (187.5 vs 66.4 composite) represents one of the most significant skill gaps in recent UFC matchmaking. His elite submission rate of 1.41 attempts per 15 minutes, combined with a 78% submission win rate, creates constant finishing threats that fundamentally alter fight dynamics.
⚡Power vs Technique
Oleksiejczuk's explosive power presents the most immediate threat to Meerschaert's game plan. With 15 KO/TKO victories representing 75% of his wins, the Polish striker possesses legitimate one-shot knockout power that could end the fight before grappling exchanges develop. His superior striking volume (5.27 vs 3.05 SLpM) and 72.8% output advantage suggest he can overwhelm Meerschaert's defensive striking, particularly in the early rounds when his explosiveness peaks.
🏁Critical Phases
The fight's outcome likely hinges on three critical phases: the opening exchanges where Oleksiejczuk's explosive power is most dangerous; the transition phases where Meerschaert attempts to close distance and initiate clinch work; and the potential ground phases where Meerschaert's submission expertise becomes paramount. Historical data suggests that grapplers with Meerschaert's submission rate typically find opportunities as fights progress, while explosive strikers like Oleksiejczuk tend to be most dangerous in the first 10 minutes.
🔮Victory Scenarios
Meerschaert's path to victory involves weathering the early storm, using his veteran experience to navigate dangerous striking exchanges, and eventually securing takedowns or clinch positions where his submission game becomes dominant. His 78% submission win rate suggests that once the fight hits the ground, he possesses the skills to finish consistently.
Oleksiejczuk's victory scenario requires maintaining distance, utilizing his superior striking volume and explosive power to overwhelm Meerschaert before grappling exchanges develop. His 75% knockout rate indicates that when he connects cleanly, fights tend to end quickly. The key is avoiding extended clinch work and ground exchanges where his grappling disadvantage becomes exposed.
🏆Final Assessment
While Oleksiejczuk's explosive power and striking advantages create genuine knockout threats, Meerschaert's overwhelming grappling superiority and proven finishing ability provide more consistent paths to victory. The veteran's experience in navigating difficult stylistic matchups, combined with his elite submission skills, gives him the edge in a fight that likely comes down to whether the grappler can survive the early striking exchanges and implement his ground game.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment and market opportunities
📊Market Odds
Market Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 47% | Market: ~35.7%
GOOD VALUE
Model: 60.8% | Market: 58.3%
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 30% | Market: ~31.2%
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Undervalues submission threat - Market doesn't fully price Meerschaert's 78% submission win rate
- • Overvalues striking differential - Striking volume advantage less important if fight hits ground
- • Recency bias toward power - Market overreacts to Oleksiejczuk's knockout highlights
- • Ignores grappling mismatch - 182% grappling advantage not properly reflected in odds
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🤼Outcome Distribution - Meerschaert
75% of his wins | Primary weapon
15% of his wins | Grinding path
10% of his wins | Rare but possible
🥊Outcome Distribution - Oleksiejczuk
80% of his wins | Main finishing method
15% of his wins | Volume striking path
5% of his wins | Unlikely scenario
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Oleksiejczuk
- • First 5 minutes: Maximum power and speed advantage
- • Early pressure: 60% of his finishes in Round 1
- • Striking volume: Must establish pace early
- • Takedown defense: Freshest at fight start
🎯Progressive Dominance - Meerschaert
- • Round 2+: Grappling pressure accumulates
- • Submission threat: Constant danger throughout
- • Takedown chains: Persistence wears down defense
- • Ground control: Elite finishing once grounded
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Conviction rating: 7/10 - Stylistic matchup heavily favors Meerschaert
Confidence Level
High confidence due to clear stylistic advantages
✅Supporting Factors
- • Elite submission threat (1.41/15min)
- • Massive grappling advantage (+182%)
- • Opponent's submission vulnerability
- • Reach and size advantages
- • Historical grappler vs striker patterns
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Oleksiejczuk's explosive power
- • Meerschaert's slow starts
- • Early knockout vulnerability
- • Current 2-fight losing streak
- • Middleweight power differential
🏁Executive Summary
This middleweight bout represents an ideal stylistic matchup for Meerschaert's submission-heavy game. Oleksiejczuk's recent submission losses to Pereira and Holland highlight the exact vulnerability that Meerschaert's elite ground game is designed to exploit. While the Polish striker's explosive power creates genuine early finishing opportunities, his 48% takedown defense against Meerschaert's persistent grappling pressure (1.86 TDs/15min) suggests the fight will eventually reach the mat.
The statistical analysis reveals Meerschaert's massive 182% grappling advantage as the defining factor in this matchup. His 78% submission win rate and 1.41 submission attempts per 15 minutes create constant finishing threats once the fight hits the ground. Oleksiejczuk's path to victory exists primarily in the first round, where his 75% KO rate and superior striking output provide legitimate finishing opportunities.
Prediction: Expect either an early Oleksiejczuk knockout or a Meerschaert submission, with the latter becoming increasingly likely as the fight progresses. The 60-40 split reflects both the early danger and the overwhelming grappling advantage that should determine the outcome. High conviction on Meerschaert by submission represents the primary value opportunity in this matchup.