Jessica Andrade vs Lupita Godinez
Women's Strawweight Bout • UFC 319
Saturday, August 16, 2025
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Veteran Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Rising Star Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Jessica Andrade
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-10 | Jasmine Jasudavicius | L | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R1, 2:40) |
| 2024-09-07 | Natália Silva | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-04-13 | Marina Rodriguez | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-11-11 | Mackenzie Dern | W | KO/TKO - TKO (R2, 3:15) |
| 2023-08-05 | Tatiana Suarez | L | Submission - Guillotine Choke (R2, 1:31) |
Last 5 Fights - Lupita Godinez
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-29 | Julia Polastri | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-08-03 | Mackenzie Dern | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-03-30 | Virna Jandiroba | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-11-11 | Tabatha Ricci | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-09-16 | Elise Reed | W | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R2, 3:38) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (57.9 vs 60.1) and Grappling Composite (57.0 vs 68.1). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
💥 Jessica Andrade Key Advantages
Devastating knockout power with 18 KO/TKO victories - can end fights instantly
Superior striking output (6.39 vs 4.28 SLpM) creates constant pressure
Superior takedown accuracy (55% vs 47%) - can mix striking with wrestling
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Godinez's superior grappling composite and submission threat could neutralize power
Godinez's 81% TDD could force Andrade to rely solely on striking exchanges
📋 Likely Gameplan
Utilize explosive power advantage in first 8 minutes before conditioning becomes factor
Force close-range exchanges where power advantage is maximized
🤼 Lupita Godinez Key Advantages
Superior grappling composite (68.1 vs 57.0) with 182% higher submission rate
Excellent defensive stats: 61% striking defense, 81% takedown defense
Riding 4-fight win streak with improved technical execution
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Andrade's explosive power could end the fight before technical advantages emerge
Getting trapped in close-range exchanges where Andrade's power is most dangerous
📋 Likely Gameplan
Utilize superior grappling skills to control fight pace and neutralize power
Use superior defensive metrics to weather early storm and implement technical gameplan
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
⚡Power vs. Technique Dynamic
This strawweight clash epitomizes the classic power vs. technique matchup that has defined many memorable women's MMA encounters. Andrade brings devastating finishing ability with an impressive 69.2% finish rate and explosive 6.39 SLpM striking output that has produced 18 knockout victories. Her ability to end fights instantly creates constant danger regardless of the tactical situation, making her a perpetual threat throughout the contest.
🎯Technical Superiority Analysis
Godinez's statistical profile reveals a fighter who has evolved significantly during her current 4-fight win streak. Her 19.5% grappling advantage (68.1 vs 57.0 composite) is complemented by elite defensive metrics including 61% striking defense and 81% takedown defense. The 182% higher submission rate (0.93 vs 0.33 per 15 minutes) demonstrates her ability to capitalize on grappling opportunities, providing multiple paths to victory beyond just decision wins.
⚖️Critical Battle Phases
The fight's outcome will likely be determined in three key phases: the opening 8 minutes where Andrade's explosive power advantage is at its peak; the middle rounds where Godinez's technical superiority and defensive metrics can begin to assert control; and the final round where conditioning and accumulated damage become decisive factors. Andrade's 65% early finish rate suggests she must capitalize quickly, while Godinez's 77% decision win rate indicates her preferred path to victory.
🔮Victory Scenarios
Andrade's path to victory requires aggressive early pressure, utilizing her 49% striking output advantage to create explosive finishing opportunities in pocket exchanges. Her superior takedown accuracy (55% vs 47%) provides additional tactical options, but the window for success narrows significantly after the first two rounds as Godinez's defensive metrics and technical consistency become more prominent.
Godinez's victory scenario involves weathering Andrade's early storm through superior defensive positioning, then gradually asserting her grappling advantage and technical superiority. Her 81% takedown defense neutralizes Andrade's wrestling threat, while her submission skills provide constant finishing opportunities once the fight reaches the ground. The longer the fight progresses, the more her technical advantages accumulate into decisive control.
🏁Final Prediction
While Andrade's knockout power creates legitimate upset potential and her veteran experience cannot be overlooked, Godinez's superior technical foundation across multiple dimensions provides the more reliable path to victory. The 57-43 split reflects both the quality of opposition and the inherent volatility in women's MMA, where single moments can change entire fight outcomes. Expect a competitive, entertaining battle where Godinez's technical consistency and current momentum ultimately overcome Andrade's explosive but energy-intensive approach.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
Method Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props (Estimated Odds)
💎Value Opportunities
PRIMARY VALUE
Model: 28% | Market: 16.7%
DERIVATIVE VALUE
Model: ~47% | Market: 31.8%
HEDGE COVERAGE
Model: 42% | Market: 53.5%
🎯Highest Probability Bets
💎Value Opportunities Analysis
- • Best Value: Andrade KO/TKO (+500) — Model 28% vs 16.7% market implied
- • High Value: Fight Doesn’t Go Distance (+215) — Model ~47% vs 31.8% market implied
- • Overvalued: Godinez Decision (-115) — Model 42% vs 53.5% market implied
- • Overvalued: Goes Distance Yes (-275) — Model ~53% vs 73.3% market implied
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
💥Outcome Distribution - Andrade
65.1% of her wins | Primary finishing method
25.6% of her wins | Grinding path
9.3% of her wins | Opportunistic submissions
🤼Outcome Distribution - Godinez
73.7% of her wins | Main victory path
17.5% of her wins | Grappling threat
8.8% of her wins | Rare finishing ability
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Andrade
- • First 8 minutes: Maximum power advantage and explosive finishing ability
- • Pocket exchanges: 65% of her finishes occur in close quarters combat
- • Pressure sequences: Must utilize forward pressure to trap Godinez
- • Takedown setup: Use striking to set up explosive doubles
🎯Technical Dominance - Godinez
- • Round 2+: Superior technical foundation and defensive metrics emerge
- • Grappling control: 182% higher submission rate provides constant threat
- • Chain wrestling: Multiple takedown attempts wear down defense
- • Decision path: 77% of wins by decision through accumulated advantages
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Moderate confidence due to stylistic complexity
✅Supporting Factors
- • Godinez's superior grappling composite
- • Excellent defensive metrics (61% StrDef, 81% TDD)
- • Current 4-fight win streak momentum
- • Higher submission threat (182% advantage)
- • Technical consistency over 3 rounds
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Andrade's explosive knockout power
- • 49% higher striking output (6.39 vs 4.28 SLpM)
- • Superior takedown accuracy (55% vs 47%)
- • Veteran experience advantage
- • Women's MMA volatility factor
🏁Executive Summary
This women's strawweight battle presents a compelling technical vs. power dynamic that could swing either direction. While Andrade's explosive finishing ability (69.2% finish rate) and devastating striking output (6.39 SLpM) create constant danger, Godinez's superior technical foundation across multiple dimensions provides a clear path to victory through accumulated advantages.
The betting market's efficient pricing reflects the genuine uncertainty in this matchup, with both fighters possessing legitimate paths to victory. Godinez's 19.5% grappling advantage and elite defensive metrics (61% striking defense, 81% TDD) create a fortress that could neutralize Andrade's primary weapons, while her current 4-fight win streak demonstrates her ability to implement technical gameplans consistently.
Prediction: The fight likely unfolds as a technical chess match where Godinez's superior defensive wrestling and grappling pressure gradually overcome Andrade's explosive but energy-intensive approach. The narrow 57-43 edge reflects the quality of both fighters and the stylistic intrigue, with Godinez's technical consistency and current momentum providing the deciding factors in what should be a competitive, entertaining battle between two elite strawweights.