Women's Strawweight • 3 Rounds

Jessica Andrade vs Lupita Godinez

Women's Strawweight Bout • UFC 319

Saturday, August 16, 2025

Veteran
+133
Power Threat
Rising Star
-133
Favorite

Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles

Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.

Jessica Andrade
V

Jessica Andrade

"Bate Estaca"

26-14-0

🇧🇷 Brazilian Power

Age:
33+2 years exp
Height:
5'1.5"-0.5" shorter
Reach:
62"+1" advantage
Style:
BrawlerPower

Veteran Metrics

Place of Birth
Umuarama, Parana, Brazil
Finish Rate
69.2%
Total UFC Fights
29
UFC Record
17-12
Current Streak
1 loss
Longest Win Streak
4
Win Rate
65%
Avg Fight Duration
9:24
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Lupita Godinez
R

Lupita Godinez

"Loopy"

13-5-0

🇲🇽 Mexican Wrestling

Age:
31Prime age
Height:
5'2"+0.5" taller
Reach:
61"-1" shorter
Style:
WrestlerControl

Rising Star Metrics

Place of Birth
Aguascalientes, Mexico
Finish Rate
23.1%
Total UFC Fights
13
UFC Record
8-5
Current Streak
4 wins
Longest Win Streak
4
Win Rate
72.2%
Avg Fight Duration
13:42
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution

Last 5 Fights - Jessica Andrade

DateOpponentResultMethod
2025-05-10Jasmine JasudaviciusLSubmission - Rear-Naked Choke (R1, 2:40)
2024-09-07Natália SilvaLDecision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00)
2024-04-13Marina RodriguezWDecision - Split (R3, 5:00)
2023-11-11Mackenzie DernWKO/TKO - TKO (R2, 3:15)
2023-08-05Tatiana SuarezLSubmission - Guillotine Choke (R2, 1:31)

Last 5 Fights - Lupita Godinez

DateOpponentResultMethod
2025-03-29Julia PolastriWDecision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00)
2024-08-03Mackenzie DernLDecision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00)
2024-03-30Virna JandirobaLDecision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00)
2023-11-11Tabatha RicciWDecision - Split (R3, 5:00)
2023-09-16Elise ReedWSubmission - Rear-Naked Choke (R2, 3:38)

Technical Analysis

Technical Score

57.5/10064.1/100
Jessica
Lupita
Lupita advantage: 5.4%

Cardio Score

59.8/10058/100
Jessica
Lupita
Jessica advantage: 1.5%

Overall Rating

58.65/10061.05/100
Jessica
Lupita
Lupita advantage: 2.0%
📊 Technical Score

Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (57.9 vs 60.1) and Grappling Composite (57.0 vs 68.1). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.

💪 Cardio Score

Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.

🎯 Overall Rating

Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.

Striking Composite

57.9/10060.1/100
Jessica
Lupita
Lupita advantage: 1.9%

Grappling Composite

57/10068.1/100
Jessica
Lupita
Lupita advantage: 8.9%
🥊 Striking Composite

Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.

🤼 Grappling Composite

Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.

Technical Radar Comparison

Metrics Legend
SLpM: Strikes/Min
StrAcc: Strike Accuracy
StrDef: Strike Defense
TDAcc: TD Accuracy
TDDef: TD Defense
SubPer15: Subs/15min
Jessica Andrade
VS
Lupita Godinez

Detailed Statistical Comparison

Strikes Landed/Min
Advantage:Jessica (+49.3%)
6.39per min4.28per min
Jessica
Lupita
Difference: 2.11per min
Striking Accuracy
Advantage:Jessica (+2.0%)
50%49%
Jessica
Lupita
Difference: 1.00%
Striking Defense
Advantage:Lupita (+13.0%)
54%61%
Jessica
Lupita
Difference: 7.00%
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Advantage:Jessica (+41.9%)
5.49per min3.87per min
Jessica
Lupita
Difference: 1.62per min
Takedowns/15min
Advantage:Lupita (+41.2%)
2.21per 15min3.12per 15min
Jessica
Lupita
Difference: 0.91per 15min
Takedown Accuracy
Advantage:Jessica (+17.0%)
55%47%
Jessica
Lupita
Difference: 8.00%
Takedown Defense
Advantage:Lupita (+12.5%)
72%81%
Jessica
Lupita
Difference: 9.00%
Submissions/15min
Advantage:Lupita (+181.8%)
0.33per 15min0.93per 15min
Jessica
Lupita
Difference: 0.60per 15min

🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown

💥 Jessica Andrade Key Advantages

Explosive Power
69.2% finish rate

Devastating knockout power with 18 KO/TKO victories - can end fights instantly

🎯Striking Volume
+49.3% output

Superior striking output (6.39 vs 4.28 SLpM) creates constant pressure

👊Takedown Setup
+17% accuracy

Superior takedown accuracy (55% vs 47%) - can mix striking with wrestling

⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios

🤼Extended Grappling

Godinez's superior grappling composite and submission threat could neutralize power

🛡️Defensive Wrestling

Godinez's 81% TDD could force Andrade to rely solely on striking exchanges

📋 Likely Gameplan

🔥Early Pressure

Utilize explosive power advantage in first 8 minutes before conditioning becomes factor

🎯Pocket Exchanges

Force close-range exchanges where power advantage is maximized

🤼 Lupita Godinez Key Advantages

🥋Grappling Superiority
+19.5% advantage

Superior grappling composite (68.1 vs 57.0) with 182% higher submission rate

🛡️Defensive Metrics
Elite defense

Excellent defensive stats: 61% striking defense, 81% takedown defense

🔥Current Momentum
4-fight win streak

Riding 4-fight win streak with improved technical execution

⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios

💥Early Knockout Threat

Andrade's explosive power could end the fight before technical advantages emerge

🎯Pocket Pressure

Getting trapped in close-range exchanges where Andrade's power is most dangerous

📋 Likely Gameplan

🤼Grappling Control

Utilize superior grappling skills to control fight pace and neutralize power

📐Technical Execution

Use superior defensive metrics to weather early storm and implement technical gameplan

🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis

Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis

43%
Jessica Andrade Win Probability
Power advantage with early finishing ability
57%
Lupita Godinez Win Probability
Technical superiority and defensive excellence

📊Detailed Analysis Summary

Power vs. Technique Dynamic

This strawweight clash epitomizes the classic power vs. technique matchup that has defined many memorable women's MMA encounters. Andrade brings devastating finishing ability with an impressive 69.2% finish rate and explosive 6.39 SLpM striking output that has produced 18 knockout victories. Her ability to end fights instantly creates constant danger regardless of the tactical situation, making her a perpetual threat throughout the contest.

🎯Technical Superiority Analysis

Godinez's statistical profile reveals a fighter who has evolved significantly during her current 4-fight win streak. Her 19.5% grappling advantage (68.1 vs 57.0 composite) is complemented by elite defensive metrics including 61% striking defense and 81% takedown defense. The 182% higher submission rate (0.93 vs 0.33 per 15 minutes) demonstrates her ability to capitalize on grappling opportunities, providing multiple paths to victory beyond just decision wins.

⚖️Critical Battle Phases

The fight's outcome will likely be determined in three key phases: the opening 8 minutes where Andrade's explosive power advantage is at its peak; the middle rounds where Godinez's technical superiority and defensive metrics can begin to assert control; and the final round where conditioning and accumulated damage become decisive factors. Andrade's 65% early finish rate suggests she must capitalize quickly, while Godinez's 77% decision win rate indicates her preferred path to victory.

🔮Victory Scenarios

Andrade's path to victory requires aggressive early pressure, utilizing her 49% striking output advantage to create explosive finishing opportunities in pocket exchanges. Her superior takedown accuracy (55% vs 47%) provides additional tactical options, but the window for success narrows significantly after the first two rounds as Godinez's defensive metrics and technical consistency become more prominent.

Godinez's victory scenario involves weathering Andrade's early storm through superior defensive positioning, then gradually asserting her grappling advantage and technical superiority. Her 81% takedown defense neutralizes Andrade's wrestling threat, while her submission skills provide constant finishing opportunities once the fight reaches the ground. The longer the fight progresses, the more her technical advantages accumulate into decisive control.

🏁Final Prediction

While Andrade's knockout power creates legitimate upset potential and her veteran experience cannot be overlooked, Godinez's superior technical foundation across multiple dimensions provides the more reliable path to victory. The 57-43 split reflects both the quality of opposition and the inherent volatility in women's MMA, where single moments can change entire fight outcomes. Expect a competitive, entertaining battle where Godinez's technical consistency and current momentum ultimately overcome Andrade's explosive but energy-intensive approach.

💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market

Detailed value assessment in the betting market

📊Market Odds

Jessica Andrade+133
Implied Probability: 42.9%
Lupita Godinez-133
Implied Probability: 57.1%
Market Props
Over 2.5 rounds:+110 (47.6%)
Under 2.5 rounds:-140 (58.3%)
Goes the distance:+125 (44.4%)
Doesn't go distance:-155 (60.8%)

🤖Analytical Model

Jessica Andrade+133
Model Probability: 43%
Lupita Godinez-133
Model Probability: 57%
Model Props
Over 2.5 rounds:+105 (48.8%)
Under 2.5 rounds:-135 (57.4%)
Goes the distance:+120 (45.5%)
Doesn't go distance:-150 (60.0%)

💎Value Opportunities

⚖️
FAIR VALUE
Both Moneylines

Model aligns with market pricing

MARKET EFFICIENCY:
High
SLIGHT VALUE
Under 2.5 Rounds (-140)

Model: 57.4% | Market: 58.3%

EDGE:
Minimal
SLIGHT VALUE
Godinez by Decision (+180)

Model: 42% | Market: ~35.7%

PROBABILITY:
42%
📈Key Market Discrepancies
  • Efficient main event pricing - Market accurately reflects both fighters' capabilities
  • Slight undervalue on decision props - Both fighters have paths to decision victory
  • Finish rate alignment - Market properly weighs both fighters' finishing ability
  • Experience factor priced in - Andrade's veteran status appropriately valued

🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis

100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data

💥Outcome Distribution - Andrade

By KO/TKO28%

65.1% of her wins | Primary finishing method

By Decision11%

25.6% of her wins | Grinding path

By Submission4%

9.3% of her wins | Opportunistic submissions

🤼Outcome Distribution - Godinez

By Decision42%

73.7% of her wins | Main victory path

By Submission10%

17.5% of her wins | Grappling threat

By KO/TKO5%

8.8% of her wins | Rare finishing ability

Fight Timeline Analysis

R1
Advantage: Andrade
Explosive power, fresh energy
R2
Advantage: Even
Godinez adapts, Andrade adjusts
R3
Advantage: Godinez
Technical superiority shows
Window of Opportunity - Andrade
  • First 8 minutes: Maximum power advantage and explosive finishing ability
  • Pocket exchanges: 65% of her finishes occur in close quarters combat
  • Pressure sequences: Must utilize forward pressure to trap Godinez
  • Takedown setup: Use striking to set up explosive doubles
🎯Technical Dominance - Godinez
  • Round 2+: Superior technical foundation and defensive metrics emerge
  • Grappling control: 182% higher submission rate provides constant threat
  • Chain wrestling: Multiple takedown attempts wear down defense
  • Decision path: 77% of wins by decision through accumulated advantages

🎯 Final Confidence Assessment

Confidence level and uncertainty factors

6/10

Confidence Level

Moderate confidence due to stylistic complexity

Supporting Factors

  • • Godinez's superior grappling composite
  • • Excellent defensive metrics (61% StrDef, 81% TDD)
  • • Current 4-fight win streak momentum
  • • Higher submission threat (182% advantage)
  • • Technical consistency over 3 rounds

⚠️Risk Factors

  • • Andrade's explosive knockout power
  • • 49% higher striking output (6.39 vs 4.28 SLpM)
  • • Superior takedown accuracy (55% vs 47%)
  • • Veteran experience advantage
  • • Women's MMA volatility factor

🏁Executive Summary

This women's strawweight battle presents a compelling technical vs. power dynamic that could swing either direction. While Andrade's explosive finishing ability (69.2% finish rate) and devastating striking output (6.39 SLpM) create constant danger, Godinez's superior technical foundation across multiple dimensions provides a clear path to victory through accumulated advantages.

The betting market's efficient pricing reflects the genuine uncertainty in this matchup, with both fighters possessing legitimate paths to victory. Godinez's 19.5% grappling advantage and elite defensive metrics (61% striking defense, 81% TDD) create a fortress that could neutralize Andrade's primary weapons, while her current 4-fight win streak demonstrates her ability to implement technical gameplans consistently.

Prediction: The fight likely unfolds as a technical chess match where Godinez's superior defensive wrestling and grappling pressure gradually overcome Andrade's explosive but energy-intensive approach. The narrow 57-43 edge reflects the quality of both fighters and the stylistic intrigue, with Godinez's technical consistency and current momentum providing the deciding factors in what should be a competitive, entertaining battle between two elite strawweights.

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