Nursulton Ruziboev vs Bryan Battle
Middleweight Bout • UFC 319
Saturday, August 16, 2025
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Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Performance Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Performance Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Nursulton Ruziboev
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-17 | Dustin Stoltzfus | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-02-22 | Eric McConico | W | TKO - Right Hook (R2, 0:33) |
| 2024-05-11 | Joaquin Buckley | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-03-30 | Sedriques Dumas | W | TKO - Uppercut & Ground Punches (R1, 3:18) |
| 2023-07-01 | Brunno Ferreira | W | KO/TKO - Counter Right to Ground & Pound (R1, 1:17) |
Last 5 Fights - Bryan Battle
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-07 | Randy Brown | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-09-28 | Kevin Jousset | W | TKO - Punches (R2, 3:47) |
| 2024-03-16 | Ange Loosa | NC | No Contest - Accidental Eye Poke (R2, 1:00) |
| 2023-09-23 | AJ Fletcher | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R2, 4:32) |
| 2023-05-13 | Gabe Green | W | TKO - Counter Right Hook (R1, 0:14) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (85 vs 95) and Grappling Composite (59 vs 72). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Nursulton Ruziboev Key Advantages
Massive 4-inch height advantage allows control of distance and timing, creating body-lock trip opportunities
Elite takedown accuracy combined with crushing top-pressure creates instant fight-ending ground-and-pound
77.8% of career wins in Round 1 - explosive power that can end fights before Battle's cardio advantage emerges
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Battle's 5.12 SLpM vs 2.75 - extended striking exchanges favor the higher-volume fighter
If forced to repeatedly reset clinches, cardio disadvantage becomes apparent by Round 3
📋 Likely Gameplan
Use height advantage to manage distance, then close for body-lock trips and inside reaps
Once takedown is secured, prioritize top control and heavy ground strikes for early finish
🚀 Bryan Battle Key Advantages
5.12 SLpM at 53% accuracy vs 2.75 at 45% - double the output with better precision
Solid defensive wrestling with scrambly style - can deny 46% of takedown attempts
9:00 avg fight time vs 6:18 - proven deep-water engine with 34% output increase in Round 3
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Ruziboev's 100% TD accuracy means one successful takedown could end the fight quickly
Sprawls reactively rather than proactively - hips stay high against elite trip specialist
📋 Likely Gameplan
Circle off fence, win jab-kick race, prevent Ruziboev from squaring hips for clinch entries
Weather first 7 minutes, then capitalize on cardio advantage as Ruziboev's output drops 38%
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🎯The Height & Power Dynamic
This middleweight clash showcases a classic size vs speed matchup. Ruziboev's 6'5" frame in the 30-foot octagon creates significant tactical advantages, allowing him to control distance and initiate clinch entries without cutting massive angles. His 100% takedown accuracy in the UFC, combined with his devastating ground-and-pound finishing ability, represents the most direct path to victory. Statistical analysis reveals that 77.8% of his career wins come in Round 1, indicating explosive finishing power that can end fights before Battle's superior cardio becomes a factor.
🥊Battle's Volume Striking Equation
Battle's path to victory relies on his superior striking metrics: 5.12 SLpM at 53% accuracy versus Ruziboev's 2.75 at 45%. This represents an 86% advantage in striking volume with better precision. His proven ability to out-land opponents by 34% in Round 3 demonstrates a deep-water engine that could become decisive if he can weather the early storm. The key tactical element is his 54% takedown defense - while not elite, it's sufficient to deny nearly half of Ruziboev's attempts, potentially forcing the fight into the striking exchanges where he holds advantages.
⚡Critical Fight Phases
The fight's outcome hinges on three distinct phases: the initial exchange (0-7 minutes) where Ruziboev's height and power create maximum danger; the adaptation phase (7-12 minutes) where Battle's volume striking and movement could establish control; and the championship phase (12-15 minutes) where Battle's superior cardio score (95 vs 76) becomes most pronounced. Ruziboev's historical 38% output drop in Round 3 creates a clear window for Battle to capitalize.
🏁Final Prediction
While Battle possesses legitimate advantages in striking volume, accuracy, and cardio, Ruziboev's combination of physical advantages, perfect takedown conversion, and early finishing power creates more direct paths to victory. The 61-39 split reflects the inherent danger Ruziboev poses in the first half of the fight, balanced against Battle's growing advantages as the fight progresses. This represents a tactical chess match where timing and execution in the early exchanges will likely determine the outcome.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
Method Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props (Estimated Odds)
💎Value Opportunities
PRIMARY VALUE
Model: 61% | Market: 40.8%
DERIVATIVE VALUE
Model: 40% | Market: 20.0%
HEDGE COVERAGE
Model: 23% | Market: 30.8%
🎯Highest Probability Bets
💎Value Opportunities Analysis
- • Best Value: Ruziboev Moneyline (+145) — Model 61% vs 40.8% market implied
- • High Value: Ruziboev KO/TKO (+400) — Model 40% vs 20% market implied
- • Small Edge: Under 2.5 Rounds (-130) — Model finishes ~69% vs ~56.5% market implied
- • Overvalued: Battle Moneyline (-170) — Model 39% vs 63.0% market implied
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Ruziboev
Ground-and-pound stoppage R1-R2
Arm-triangle / mounted guillotine off trip
Top-control heavy 29-28s
💥Outcome Distribution - Battle
Out-volumes late, survives scare
Body-head kicks wear Ruziboev down, R3 stoppage
Snap guillotine in scramble
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Ruziboev
- • First 7 minutes: Maximum height and power advantage
- • Early exchanges: 100% TD accuracy most dangerous
- • Ground control: Must secure top position for GnP
- • Finish urgency: Cardio disadvantage increases over time
🎯Progressive Advantage - Battle
- • Round 2+: Volume striking advantage becomes pronounced
- • Survival key: Deny early takedowns through movement
- • Cardio surge: 34% output increase in Round 3
- • Late finish: Body-head combinations as Ruziboev fades
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
High confidence due to clear physical advantages
✅Supporting Factors
- • Ruziboev's decisive height advantage
- • Perfect takedown conversion rate
- • Strong early finishing history
- • Clear physical dominance path
- • Battle's reactive defensive style
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Battle's superior striking volume
- • Significant cardio disadvantage
- • Battle's submission threat
- • Middleweight division volatility
- • Ruziboev's R3 output drop
🏁Executive Summary
This middleweight clash represents a compelling size versus speed dynamic where Ruziboev's 6'5" frame and perfect takedown conversion create the most direct path to victory. His 100% takedown accuracy in the UFC, combined with devastating ground-and-pound finishing ability, poses constant danger throughout the fight. The statistical reality that 77.8% of his career wins come in Round 1 underscores his explosive finishing power.
However, Battle's superior striking metrics (5.12 SLpM vs 2.75 at better accuracy) and proven cardio engine create legitimate pathways to victory, particularly if he can survive the early exchanges. His 34% output increase in Round 3 versus Ruziboev's historical 38% drop creates a clear window of opportunity.
Prediction: The fight's outcome hinges on the first 7 minutes. If Ruziboev can implement his height advantage and secure early takedowns, his finishing power becomes decisive. If Battle can weather the early storm and force extended striking exchanges, his volume and cardio advantages grow increasingly significant. The 61-39 split reflects Ruziboev's more direct paths to victory while acknowledging Battle's legitimate late-fight surge potential.