Alexander Hernandez vs Chase Hooper
UFC Lightweight Division • UFC 319
Saturday, August 16, 2025
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Veteran Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Prospect Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Alexander Hernandez
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-15 | Kurt Holobaugh | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-10-05 | Austin Hubbard | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-04-06 | Damon Jackson | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-10-07 | Bill Algeo | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-02-18 | Jim Miller | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Chase Hooper
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-12 | Jim Miller | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-12-07 | Clay Guida | W | Submission - Armbar (R1, 3:41) |
| 2024-05-11 | Viacheslav Borshchev | W | Submission - D'Arce Choke (R2, 3:00) |
| 2023-11-18 | Jordan Leavitt | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R1, 2:45) |
| 2023-05-20 | Nick Fiore | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (74 vs 79) and Grappling Composite (60 vs 85). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🥊 Alexander Hernandez Key Advantages
Better foot speed and 57% striking defense clips most of Hooper's linear entries
72% TDD plus whizzer-heavy defense stalls single-leg chains effectively
Proven finishing power with right-hand counters when opponents level-change
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Hooper's superior grappling skills and submission threat become dangerous in prolonged ground exchanges
Hooper's 2" reach advantage and height could create problems in extended striking exchanges
📋 Likely Gameplan
Orthodox combos, chew up Hooper's lead leg, sprawl-and-brawl, reset to center
Look for right-hand counters when Hooper level-changes, capitalize on defensive wrestling
🌟 Chase Hooper Key Advantages
Elite top-game with 2.22 submission attempts per 15 minutes vs 0.10
52% accuracy vs 41% - more precise striking with better volume control
Significant physical advantages with long limbs for scrambles and transitions
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Hernandez's superior striking defense and footwork could neutralize reach advantage
Low 34% takedown accuracy against Hernandez's strong 72% takedown defense
📋 Likely Gameplan
Chain single-leg to back-pack, use long kicks to disguise entries, accept guard if necessary
Keep volume high to discourage Hernandez from planting and throwing haymakers
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on 100 hypothetical fights
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🥊Veteran vs Rising Prospect
This lightweight bout showcases the classic veteran vs rising prospect dynamic. Hernandez brings 15 UFC fights of experience and proven defensive skills, while Hooper represents the new generation with superior grappling credentials and physical advantages. The statistical analysis reveals Hernandez's 46.2% striking defense advantage and 30.9% takedown defense superiority as key factors.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Hooper's 41.7% grappling advantage is primarily driven by his elite submission rate (2.22 attempts per 15 minutes vs 0.10) and superior takedown volume (2.59 vs 1.24 per 15 minutes). However, Hernandez's 72% takedown defense and 57% striking defense create significant obstacles. The 26.8% striking accuracy advantage for Hooper (52% vs 41%) is offset by his porous 39% striking defense.
⚡Key Battle Areas
The fight will likely be determined by Hooper's ability to overcome Hernandez's takedown defense and implement his grappling game. Hernandez's path to victory involves utilizing his superior striking defense and footwork to keep the fight standing, where his knockout power (6 career KOs) becomes a factor. The 30-foot cage provides additional real estate for Hernandez to circle and reset.
🔮Victory Scenarios
Based on 100 simulated fights, Hernandez wins 60% through superior defensive wrestling and range striking. His victories typically come via decision (32%) or late knockout (24%) when Hooper's entries become desperate. Hooper's 40% win rate relies heavily on his submission threat (27% of total wins), with decision victories being rare (9%) due to his grappling-heavy approach.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment based on statistical modeling
📊Market Odds
Method Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props (Estimated Odds)
💎Value Opportunities
PRIMARY VALUE
Model: 60% | Market: 26.7%
DERIVATIVE VALUE
Model: 32% | Market: 16.7%
HEDGE COVERAGE
Model: 27% | Market: 33.3%
🎯Highest Probability Bets
💎Value Opportunities Analysis
- • Best Value: Hernandez Moneyline (+275) — Model 60% vs 26.7% market implied
- • High Value: Hernandez by Decision (+500) — Model 32% vs 16.7% market implied
- • Good Value: Hernandez by KO/TKO (+525) — Model 24% vs 16.0% market implied
- • Small Edge: Under 2.5 Rounds (-105) — Model 55% vs 51.2% market implied
- • Overvalued: Hooper Moneyline (-335) — Model 40% vs 77.0% market implied
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🥊Outcome Distribution - Hernandez
53.3% of his wins | Defensive wrestling path
40% of his wins | Counter-striking finish
6.7% of his wins | Rare but possible
🌟Outcome Distribution - Hooper
67.5% of his wins | Primary threat weapon
22.5% of his wins | Control-heavy path
10% of his wins | Unlikely but possible
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (3 Rounds)
🎯Key Prediction
Most likely scenario sees Hernandez utilizing his superior takedown defense and striking defense to keep the fight standing, winning rounds through volume striking and defensive wrestling. Hooper's submission threat remains constant but decreases as Hernandez's experience takes over.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and key factors analysis
Confidence Level
Moderate confidence due to even matchup
✅Supporting Factors
- • Hernandez's superior takedown defense
- • 46% striking defense advantage
- • Veteran experience in tough fights
- • Proven knockout power
- • Large cage favors movement
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Hooper's elite submission threat
- • Physical disadvantages (height/reach)
- • Hooper's improving striking accuracy
- • Youth and athleticism factor
- • One takedown could change everything
🏁Executive Summary
This lightweight bout presents a compelling stylistic matchup between Hernandez's defensive wrestling and striking experience against Hooper's elite grappling and submission skills. The statistical model favors Hernandez due to his superior takedown defense (72% vs 55%) and striking defense (57% vs 39%), which should neutralize Hooper's primary weapons. However, Hooper's submission threat (2.22 attempts per 15 minutes) and physical advantages keep him competitive. The betting market has efficiently priced this fight with no significant value opportunities on the main lines.