Edson Barboza vs Drakkar Klose
UFC Lightweight Division • UFC 319
Saturday, August 16, 2025
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Veteran Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Rising Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Edson Barboza
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-05-18 | Lerone Murphy | L | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2023-10-14 | Sodiq Yusuff | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2023-04-15 | Billy Quarantillo | W | KO/TKO - Knee (R1, 2:37) |
| 2022-03-05 | Bryce Mitchell | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2021-08-28 | Giga Chikadze | L | KO/TKO - Punches (R3, 1:44) |
Last 5 Fights - Drakkar Klose
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-14 | Joel Álvarez | L | TKO - Flying Knee (R1, 2:48) |
| 2024-05-04 | Joaquim Silva | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-12-02 | Joe Solecki | W | TKO - Slam (R1, 1:41) |
| 2022-07-30 | Rafa García | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-04-16 | Brandon Jenkins | W | TKO - Punches (R2, 0:33) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (80 vs 20) and Grappling Composite (40 vs 60). Shows Barboza's superior striking advantage while Klose holds the grappling edge.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and age factors. Klose's superior cardio (75 vs 25) reflects his wrestling-heavy style and younger age.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Gives Klose a slight edge (57.5 vs 42.5) based on his superior conditioning and grappling advantages.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Barboza holds a massive advantage (80 vs 20) in striking effectiveness, driven by superior volume (4.11 vs 4.33 SLpM) and defensive metrics (56% vs 50% StrDef). His Muay Thai background provides diverse striking arsenal.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Klose's grappling advantage (60 vs 40) comes from superior takedown rate (1.65 vs 0.45 per 15min) and wrestling background. His pressure style forces opponents to defend takedowns consistently.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🥊 Edson Barboza Key Advantages
Legendary leg kick power that can cripple opponents' mobility. 25% of significant strikes target the legs.
75" reach allows him to maintain distance and utilize his long-range striking arsenal effectively.
Solid sprawl-and-reset technique that allows him to return to striking distance quickly.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Absorbs 4.65 SApM when trapped in close quarters - vulnerable to Klose's compact boxing.
At 39, cardio fades when forced to wrestle extensively - vulnerable to Klose's pressure.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Utilize reach advantage to maintain distance, punish wrestling entries with leg kicks.
Target lead leg to compromise Klose's wrestling entries and forward pressure.
🤼 Drakkar Klose Key Advantages
Superior 55% accuracy vs 44% - compact boxing mechanics translate to precise pocket striking.
3-year age advantage and superior cardio (75 vs 25) allows for sustained pressure throughout 3 rounds.
1.65 takedown attempts per 15min vs 0.45 - high volume wrestling creates cardio drain.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Historically checks <25% of leg kicks - vulnerable to Barboza's legendary leg kick power.
5" reach disadvantage struggles at kicking range if unable to cut the cage effectively.
📋 Likely Gameplan
March forward behind tight guard, mix short combos into wrestling entries.
Use volume takedown attempts to create cardio drain and control optics even when unsuccessful.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Based on 100 hypothetical fight simulation using statistical data
🏆Method of Victory Breakdown
Barboza Victory Methods
Early body/leg kick → punches
Range-kick clinic
Minimal ground game
Klose Victory Methods
Decision grind
Late TKO accumulated damage
No submission arsenal
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🎯Stylistic Clash
This lightweight bout represents a classic striker vs wrestler dynamic, with Barboza's elite kicking arsenal facing off against Klose's forward-pressure boxing and wrestling game. The critical pivot point lies in whether Klose can close distance cleanly without eating disabling leg kicks in the first 7-8 minutes. Historical data shows that Klose checks <25% of leg kicks, making him vulnerable to Barboza's legendary leg kick power that targets 25% of his significant strikes to the legs.
⚡Key Battle Areas
The fight will be determined across three critical phases: open-space kicking range where Barboza's 5" reach advantage and explosive kicks favor him; pocket boxing where Klose's superior accuracy (55% vs 44%) and tighter guard create advantages; and the clinch/wall cycle where Klose's volume takedown attempts (1.65 vs 0.45 per 15min) create control optics and cardio drain even with low accuracy (28%).
🔮Victory Scenarios
Barboza's path to victory involves utilizing his reach advantage early, landing debilitating leg kicks to compromise Klose's mobility and wrestling entries, then finishing with combinations. His 62.5% finish rate suggests explosive potential when his game plan executes. Klose's route to victory centers on cutting the cage effectively, forcing pocket exchanges where his superior accuracy shines, while using volume wrestling to create cardio drain and control time. His 78.9% win rate and superior cardio (75 vs 25) favor a grinding, pressure-heavy approach.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive betting value assessment and market analysis
📊Market Odds
Method Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props (Estimated Odds)
💎Value Opportunities
PRIMARY VALUE
Model: 65% | Market: 41.7%
DERIVATIVE VALUE
Model: 51% | Market: 30.8%
HEDGE COVERAGE
Volatility coverage sprinkle
🎯Highest Probability Bets
💎Value Opportunities Analysis
- • Best Value: Klose Moneyline (+140) — Model 65% vs 41.7% market implied
- • High Value: Klose by Decision (+225) — Model 51% vs 30.8% market implied
- • Hedge Idea: Barboza Round 1 KO/TKO (+725) — covers early volatility
- • Overvalued: Barboza Moneyline (-160) — Model 35% vs 61.5% market implied
⏰ Fight Timeline Analysis
Round-by-round breakdown for 3-round lightweight bout
Critical Timeline Factors
🎯 Barboza's Window (R1-R2)
Must establish range control early and land leg kicks to compromise Klose's mobility. His 62.5% finish rate suggests explosive potential if he can maintain distance.
🔥 Klose's Progression (R2-R3)
Superior cardio (75 vs 25) and 3-year age advantage become increasingly important. Volume wrestling creates cumulative effects even with low accuracy.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Model confidence and key risk factors
Confidence Level
High confidence due to clear statistical edges
✅Supporting Factors
- • Klose's superior striking accuracy (+11%)
- • Cardio advantage (75 vs 25)
- • Age advantage (3 years younger)
- • Wrestling volume advantage
- • Pressure fighting style in 3-round format
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Barboza's fight-ending kick power
- • Klose's poor leg kick defense
- • Reach disadvantage (-5 inches)
- • Low takedown accuracy (28%)
- • Barboza's 62.5% finish rate
🏁Executive Summary
This lightweight bout heavily favors Klose based on clear statistical advantages in accuracy (+11%), cardio (75 vs 25), and age (3 years younger). The model's 7/10 confidence stems from Klose's ability to maintain pressure throughout three rounds while Barboza's cardio fades. However, the risk remains significant due to Barboza's explosive kick power and Klose's historical vulnerability to leg kicks (<25% check rate). The fight will likely be decided by whether Klose can weather the early storm and impose his wrestling-heavy pressure game, or if Barboza can land the debilitating leg kicks that have defined his career. The market odds of -186 for Klose align perfectly with our model's 65% probability, suggesting efficient pricing with limited betting value.